Whenurhappy

The NAC has been in emergency session and this Libyan business is exactly the sort of role for NRF. There is unlikely to be any push-back (except, perhaps, from Greece or Turkey because of the potential use of NRF in a Cyrpus debacle).

Oh, Trim Stab - what are these statutes that you talk about? Article V? Well, intervention in Kosovo? Was NATO attacked? OP ACTIVE ENDEAVOUR, OCEAN SHIELD etc...were Alliance members directly attacked? Continuing mission in Afghanistan? The emphasis of the recent NATO Strategic Concept is Art IV consultation - and then action, as required, based on concensus.

draken55

67 Wing

Thanks to HNS from the Government of Malta, on the doorstep of Libya, there has been no major issue with getting UK and other citizens out.

However, we should reflect that Libya and North Africa as a whole is hardly "out of theatre" for NATO/EU Armed Forces. The moot point is what would happen in future if political unrest was to emerge further away (e.g Nigeria?) and HNS support was not a given. That's why even after SDSR the decision to run with at least one carrier was confirmed. You seem to suggest we either need no carriers or as many as the US as only large numbers are viable!

Short of firm evidence that civilians are being killed by aircraft, I doubt that China and Russia would back the use of a NFZ because of the precedent it could set.

67Wing

I agree with you Trim Stab that a NFZ should be in order to achieve something tangible with measurable effects and a clear end state. The reality is that Air will be asked to do something to show resolve, piss off Gadaffi and give some hope to his opposition. The aims will be contradictory, confusing and different for each member of NATO. It's likely that the direction will be loosely worded and vague and refer to NFZ with little more clarity than that. NATO would be content just to get the show on the road.

ghostnav

Cannot exactly see this working - unless of course we do the talking and others do the flying!

Cows getting bigger

Don't we have a filing cabinet full of lessons learnt from the last western world vs. islamic dictator No Fly Zone?

I'm all for parking a few big ships off Tripoli. Do we have any big ships?

67Wing

I think carriers are great but not at any cost. The admirals don't seem to give a stuff about a balanced joint force just so long as they have a carrier.

Geehovah

The problem here is that you need somewhat more than 19 capital ships to defend 2 carriers even if all of them are operational. The other thing to add is that the first thing you need to impose a NFZ is an AD aeroplane. Best we take note before we trim the Typhoon force any further.

draken55

67 Wing

The 1997 and 2010 Defence Reviews both concluded that without
carrier(s) there might be no balanced joint forces for all the places of the world where our interests could be at threat. SDSR thought the real "out of theatre" risk would emerge post 2020. Recents events might suggest this analysis was flawed.

If we were only interested in defending the UK homeland we might need no carrier capability, AAR etc. We do as HMG believes the UK has a role to play on the world stage, one now being played out again over Libya. We need to be able to deal with such unexpected events as well as the more obvious threats. So far we have been lucky with this sudden and unexpected chain of events. If they are contained to North Africa we may remain so. Problem would be if they are not.

kappa

Tripoli, Libya (CNN) -- Even as Gadhafi sought to project confidence Monday, reports came in that a military jet bombed a military base in an area controlled by protesters….The base is near Ajdabiya, 90 miles south of Benghazi, a stronghold of government opponents...

CNN saw the military jet fly above and heard the sounds of explosions. Witnesses reported a bombing at the base. …But Libyan state television later denied any such bombing.

Pro-Gadhafi forces have tried to attack a radio station in Misrata, a city controlled by protesters, a witness said. A military chopper has tried to land a couple of times in the past three days with soldiers on board, but the opposition fired at the soldiers and kept them away, the witness said.

White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said Monday …the U.S. government is considering the possibility of imposing a no-fly zone over Libya. Pentagon spokesman ….said the United States is "repositioning" naval and air forces in the region to be prepared for any option that it may need to exercise.

Wander00

Do we have any ships?

Trim Stab

I think Italy holds the key here. They are the NATO member with the most direct threat of destabilisation from a substantial degradation of the situation in Libya - but as yet Berlusconi has been notably silent, probably as he is too busy watching porno. I can't see NATO being able to take substantial action without clear support from Italy.

Whenurhappy

Oh, I think you can guarantee Italy's support on this one. They have detailed knowledge of Libya, both as a former colonial power, but more recently, in cooperation with the Libyan authorities, especially amongst the leathally smart Caribinieri.

The point I was making is that NATO can - and has - acted outside the mutual self-defence of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty 1949.

tempesta

Dude, there's Lampedusa , the best carrier for that ops area....

Doctor Cruces

Just goes to prove what a bunch of hopeless, d**kheads we have at the helm just now.

Lets do away with a shed load of aircraft, aircraft carriers, ships, tanks soldiers, sailors and airmen and the let's talk about EXTRA committments.

It has been said earlier to leave it to those with the principles and the resources.

I am told that the last person to enter Parliament with a principle and the means to carry it out was Guy Fawkes. Mind you, after what happened to him I'm not surprised we get what we have nowadays!

Doc C

dead_pan

Intrigued to know how NFZ RoE would deal with commercial flights inbound from say Niger or Chad.

Also, anyone know how sophisticated their air defence system is? Lots of triple-A for sure.

Lono

Can't vouch for accuracy, but ...

IMINT & Analysis - The Libyan SAM Network

dead_pan

Lets hope all of those Russian/Chinese/French techinicians have packed their bags and gone home...

LS-4

May the experiences from DENY FLIGHT be of any value in relation to a possible NFZ operation in Libya? ROE, communication, decision-making?

An incident which might be of interest happened on this day 17 years ago:

AFSOUTH Fact sheets

Banja Luka incident - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I also remember reading about some frustration in NATO due to problems with preventing unauthorised rotary wing activity in the Bosnian NFZ, with authorised RW flights (UN etc.) and the threat of blue-on-blue incidents (especially after the tragedy in Iraq in 1994) adding to the complexity of the mission.

I'm not sure if this carries enough relevance for the Libyan issue, though. Thoughts?

haltonapp

if a general election in North Africa is carried out using Kalashnikovs rather than the ballot box, why should we western nations get involved? No one came to our aid when the Normans carried out property transfer, with no compensation, and enslaved the population in 1066!

I just thought it was a very boring thread, lots of armchair generals spouting away!!!

Phileas Fogg

What are the basic requirements to enforce a NFZ ... a Nimrod or few per chance?