Biggus

First of all let me state that I personally am not advocating a NFZ in Libya.

However, if various western powers elect to go down that route I have a sneaking suspicion that by the time they have all got their ducks in a row it will already be over in Libya one way or another.







Having said that - I note that somebody said the USS Enterprise was on the way. It will certainly all be over when the Enterprise arrives - there is no way that Libya will be able to hold out against phasers and photon torpedoes!!

Caspian237

Is the West backing itself into a corner here? If there is no intervention of any sort and Gaddafi puts down the uprising then is it really going to be business as usual with the Libyan regime?

Libyan oil is an important resouce for Europe but after all that has been said and done how can any western government in good conscience consider dealing with Gaddafi in the future, particulary when they are now calling for action in the international criminal court?

EDIT- Of course good conscience isn't necessarily a requisite for being an elected member of government and nor is an aversion to hypocracy.

charliemac

Ponce - second city of Puerto Rico and a dodgy place to boot. As is this whole unsanctioned potential intervention. Do we never learn?

TSR2Eagle

Yes, USS Ponce (LPD-15) is an amphibious transport dock vessel, named after the Spanish explorer Juan Ponce de Leon.

The word 'ponce' does not have the same meaning in the US as it does in English.

Canadian WokkaDoctor

Quote:

Is the West backing itself into a corner here? If there is no intervention of any sort and Gaddafi puts down the uprising then is it really going to be business as usual with the Libyan regime?

I agree with this comment. I'd add that if a NFZ is imposed over Libya, aren't we (the West) opening ourselves up to calls from certain middle eastern countries to impose similar measures the next time the IAF goes to town in Gaza/Lebanon; I'd like to see the RAF enforce that one!

Is this "almost" civil war anything to do with the UK? I'd have thought that Gadhafi's arms shipments to the IRA in the 80's would have been cause for the UK to take action against him, but since then he managed to get into the West's good books, the UK even released a convicted murderer into Libyan "custody" and BP was trying to get oil contracts from the Libyan Government (I'm sure that the two events are not connected though). Now its good to hate Gadhafi again. Fickle thing world politics.

Anyhow, that all said and if my military history doesn't fail me, I seem to remember that the last UK venture in a North African country didn't turn out too well. Maybe someone should float the idea of subcontracting the NFZ to a local organisation that can point to recent success in/over several North African nations - the IAF!

Failing that, maybe give the NFZ task to the Reds, they could put on a good show, fly the flag for Air Command's PR dept and there would be no need to come up with new ROE, because lets face it, no-one in UK government actually wants to start shooting down Libyan aircraft, do they?

Does anyone know if Trim Stab is an ex Harrier mate, because that whine sure is familiar!

Lastly, well done to all the boys and girls who went in to rescue the expats. The CAF tried recently, but we made the mistake of asking to be let in!

CWD

glad rag

Surely USS de Leon not Ponce!

Must be VERY interesting come the run ashores..........



"Hey any one from Ponce here...ANY PONCES"

just another jocky

Having just watched Ross Kemp's new program, covering the atrocities in the 10-year war in Congo, I'd question our priorities as human beings if we do this and yet do nothing (UN presence appears to be almost pointless) about the horrors committed in Congo.

I know, it's realpolitik. Oil, and money and the vote, which drives our political masters to make the decisions they do. But for once, I wish we would do it better.

Off topic......apologies, but that program shocked me.

TSR2Eagle

I agree with you 'just another jocky', and not just about the Congo - what about Zimbabwe, etc, etc? - but I doubt very much we will ever see politicians doing something for the right reasons. Headmaster Cameron must think the UK voter is an ignorant idiot not to see through his claim that to put in place a NFZ over Libya is for humanitarian reasons.

Too much to expect a politician to ever speak honestly...

(Not entirely off-topic, just broadening the debate!)

dead_pan

Interesting twist on the news this evening that the Arab League may implement their own NFZ. So, can we expect elements of the Saudi and Syrian air forces to take up station over the country?

TSR2Eagle

With what's been going on in recent weeks across Northern Africa I'm not sure what clout the Arab League have anymore. My fear is that intervention from this quarter - not entirely 100% impartial - could lead to wider disruption and possible civil war...

TEEEJ

The Arab League NFZ could be the solution. Support could be supplied by NATO forces such as tankers, AWACS while the Arab state fighter aircraft conduct the air patrols. The Saudi's could assist with their AWACS and tankers with the fighters operating out of the likes of Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia.

TJ

0497

Saudis and Syrians are symbols of political oppression. Rebels on the ground are not going to like it, they'll be seen as trying to preserve the status quo.

muppetofthenorth

But British and American a/c couldn't possibly be seen as imperialistic and only in it for a material gain...?

TEEEJ

Libyan Air Force Su-24 Fencer bombing in the following video.

BBC News - Libyan air force bombs arms dump in Ajdabiya

http://cdn-www.airliners.net/aviatio.../9/1349908.jpg

TJ

TSR2Eagle

US Pentagon official was quoted on Radio 4 this morning saying, and I paraphase, that even a fully complemented Nimitz class carrier (90 aircraft) wouldn't be enough to maintain a NFZ over Libya. Where does this leave Headmaster Cameron and his 'initiative'?

StopStart

Hmmmm......

dead_pan

Nice pic - probably grabbed from a video, unless the photographer got a very fast trigger finger.

The best he'll probably do with that is put the pilots off their aim - not much chance hitting anything with a Grail unless the operator is particularly clued up.

MRAF

Quote:
The Threat? Presumably there are more of those Mirage Jets?
Bombers : 6 TU-22A/U Blinder.
Fighter/Ground Attack : 50 Mig-21MF Fishbed, 75 MiG-23B/ML Flogger, 60 Mig-25 Foxbat, 15 Mirage F1-ED, 6 Mirage F1-BD, 40 MIG 23BN Flogger, 15 Mig 23-U Flogger, 30 Mirage 5D/DE, 14 Mirage 5DD, 14 Mirage F1-AD, 45 SU-20/22 Fitter.
Counterinsurgency: 24 Jastreb J-1E.
Reconnaissance: 5 Mirage 5DR, 7 Mig 25-R Foxbat.
Strike and multi-role aircraft : 12 SU-24MK Fencer, 40 SU-22M-3 Fitter, 10 MIG-25R/U Foxbat, 2 TU-22U Blinder.


???

I think you will find this is VERY VERY OLD data and a massive exaggeration of what they have. BLINDERs havnt flown for years, numbers are the original orders, most from 70s 80s. With accidents, losses, unservicibility, obsolete airframes, lack of spares etc...oh and captures by Rebels, I would say they are down to a fraction of this.

Handful of FENCERS, even less M F1s, couple of dozen FITTERS, couple of dozen FLOGGERS, maybe a few FISHBED and at an outside push a couple of FOXBATS... but i'd be suprised.

StopStart

Very true d_p, just thought it was nice pic! Given the clarity I suspect it was a lucky shot by a stills photographer.

Whilst the capabilities of the -7 are limited so too are the abilities and capabilities PF those he's trying to bring down...

Biggus

MRAF,

You mean a bit like reading what the strength of the RAF is on paper - and then seeing what it can actually put in the air.....







Stoppers - that SAMs not going very far anyway, it's about to get the tailfin stuck in those telephone wires....



You see, it's all about perspective!