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Future Carrier (Including Costs)

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Old 9th Jan 2024, 08:12
  #7181 (permalink)  
 
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"Escorts have become bloated in size, cost and roles such that they can be barely afforded and certainly not sacrificed and cannot replaced until they are worn out long passed their initially planned OSD"

I was re-reading Freidmanns "British Destroyers" which details all the ins and outs of post war design drivers - it's a 2006 book and its still the same issues. When you can't afford a large fleet you finish up loading the ships you have (or are designing) with more and more roles and they get bigger and bigger. Plus the changes in accommodation, electronics etc lead to bigger vessels
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Old 9th Jan 2024, 08:41
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
"Escorts have become bloated in size, cost and roles such that they can be barely afforded and certainly not sacrificed and cannot replaced until they are worn out long passed their initially planned OSD"<br /><br />I was re-reading Freidmanns "British Destroyers" which details all the ins and outs of post war design drivers - it's a 2006 book and its still the same issues. When you can't afford a large fleet you finish up loading the ships you have (or are designing) with more and more roles and they get bigger and bigger. Plus the changes in accommodation, electronics etc lead to bigger vessels
The growth in size is almost exclusively attributable to policy factors (eg stability standards, accommodation standard, ergonomics, removal routes and accessibility), plus some changes in how you achieve endurance (which has also grown). The 70s and 80s designs T22/T42 all had endurance in the 4000-5000nm range - often achieved with water-compensated diesel bunkers. That's not allowed under MARPOL now, which means that not only are you carrying more volume of fuel, you also have to find a similar - separate - volume to carry water ballast to maintain your stability state. There are also some other topside drivers - we have larger helicopters, so flight deck and hangar are longer. EM emissions are more powerful, so you end up with larger distances between emitters/receivers.

The differences when actually aboard are significant. You walk down a T42 passageway and it's tiny. Walk down a T23 and its noticeably more spacious. Walk down the main drag on a T45 and it's huge. Remember that a T45 is a single role ship as well.

Cost does not directly scale with size, it's more complicated than that (although the MoD cost models still use that relationship). Build time also has an effect, which again is not directly scalable with size. T45 - comparable in size to T26 - built in two yards took (broadly) a couple of years less than T26 will do to build in one.
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Old 11th Jan 2024, 18:13
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I admit I should have used a less negative word than bloated. I would much prefer serving in the working and living environment of a 45, poor ergonomics wasn't confined to the previous generation of escorts, my recollection is that the fighting and driving areas of the Invincibles were 'deceptively spacious'. My point was I would like to see research conducted into the psychological effects of smaller crew in larger ships especially on long single vessel deployments and if this is affecting retention. T45 is clearly a quantum leap in AAW capability, it can carry twice (planned to become three times) as many AAMs as a 42, has bigger and better aviation facilities and can an act as a flagship Its range is 75% greater than a 42. However, it was designed before the age of the drone swarm and I understand its Mk 8 gun can't engage aerial targets due to software limitations (the recent press coverage of Diamond suggest she used he guns - I assume this was point defence against a threat to the ship?). This means it currently has to use its main weapon system to protect other vessels from drone attack - an expensive option. May main concern is the lack of decent ASW sensors and weapons fit if they are being used on single ship deployment rather than in concert with an ASW frigate; IMO this can only become more important with the likely growth in the use of heavyweight UUVs. I don't see politicians understanding these bigger ships are single role, though may be the fact that Diamond and Richmond are both being deployed means the light is trickling through.

The real issue for maintaining adequate escort numbers is the aforementioned warship cost inflation, using 11/2023 pounds, a 45 cost more that four times as much as the last 42 and nearly eight times as much as the last County - which is probably a fairer comparison as it had flag facilities (granted coupled with a virtually useless primary weapon system.)
HMS Antrim <220m Nov2023 GBP
HMS Edinburgh <400m Nov2023 GBP
Type 45 average c.1,750m Nov2023 GBP

(for comparison a QE CV would be 4,600m in Nov2023 GBP)

Hoewvwer, for another metric, the cost per ton, of the T45 was about the same as a T42 batch 3 but more than double that of a County (2009 GBPs)

I was interested in the views of Tom Sharpe in one of his recent comment articles in the Telegraph (urgh) - he was CO of HMS St Albans 2010-2012 and held three other commands in a 27 year career. He was appointed OBE for his role in saving HMS Endurance from sinking.

...the Royal Navy and Royal Fleet Auxiliary are critically short of people with ships unable to go to sea as a result. Admiral level positions are being recruited on LinkedIn and the Royal Marines are fighting for their existence yet again – despite the fact that they don’t suffer nearly as badly from recruiting problems as most. This reflects a global maritime recruitment shortage (of about 9 per cent), inefficient and wasteful recruitment processes and an inability to convert those that do make it through the door onto the trained strength and then keep them there.Improving the offer would help to solve this wicked problem, but that involves more money so won’t happen. The raft of other solutions to the recruitment and retention problem is huge but one that must always be considered is sending ships on real operations. Army friends – I do have some – have told me about the effect that active land warfare had on infantry recruitment. I guarantee no one is resigning from HMS Diamond’s ship’s company just now: she is up threat and doing exactly the job she was built for and her people trained for. HMS Richmond is heading out to join her. She too has the tools for the task, with her new Sea Ceptor missiles and new, upgraded propulsion and power units. The RN can still put effective warships to sea when it has to.
This makes the decision not to send HMS Queen Elizabeth even more frustrating – if the carrier was to deploy on a punchy operation such as restoring freedom of navigation in the Red Sea this would be recruitment and retention positive. As it is, we are sending the escort group, without its carrier!
Defence will always compete unfavourably with other government priorities until it’s too late, that is the historical precedent with which we must live. Thus, it is not entirely fair to blame the current predicament on this current government. That there is an obvious surge in global insecurity, some of which is affecting the UK, and all we get is a vague promise of an increase in defence spending ‘when economic conditions allow’ is annoying and short-sighted but not unprecedented.
There are many channels into the decision makers in Downing Street to at least attempt to address this but the one way that is guaranteed not to help is overt or subtle interservice tribalism from inside or outside the services.

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Old 11th Jan 2024, 20:24
  #7184 (permalink)  
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We seem to be living in incredible times - deploying extra frigates to the Middle East while talking of cutting numbers, talking of mothballing the LPDs and letting talk of losing the amphibious capability get out of hand, and as always the carriers get the blame. I have heard a suggestion that the leaks were 'pitch rolling' - whatever that means...

Firstly - personnel numbers. Thanks to Capita the services have a problem getting interested applicants to the point of actually joining. In addition, some of you may remember that in 2015 the RN expected a personnel uplift of 1500 people (as did the RAF). A great deal of work had been put into coming up with these figures and what to do with the extra people, but Cameron lacked the backbone to stand up to backbenchers when he made a promise about 'troop numbers' whilst not increasing the number (on paper - which included personnel who did not actually exist) of overall personnel in HM Forces.

I do not welcome his return to front line politics.

Secondly - have a look at this Telegraph article partly quoted above: Aircraft carriers are not a problem. Inter-service tribalism is

The title says it all really. The backbenchers thought of their old regiments...

Thirdly - frigates. Cutting numbers even further years before the replacements are ready makes no sense, as we are deploying more of them in the Middle East and on NATO tasking.

HMS Richmond heads to Gulf to support Diamond and Lancaster safeguard shipping - Royal Navy

Royal Navy warship HMS Richmond is Gulf-bound to support the international effort protecting shipping.

The frigate will stand in for HMS
Diamond and HMS Lancaster when either vessel needs to break off patrols for re-supply or maintenance.

Diamond is assigned to a newly-established international security mission, Operation
Prosperity Guardian which was inaugurated last month following a series of drone and missile attacks threatening shipping passing through the Red Sea.

Meanwhile frigate HMS
Lancaster is on a long-term mission in the Middle East, largely focused on the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea, hunting down drug smugglers and arms traffickers, while providing a reassurance presence to lawful seafarers.

In announcing
Richmond’s deployment – the ship made a low-key departure from Plymouth on Friday, waved off by a small number of family and friends – Defence Secretary Grant Shapps told fellow MPs that there had been a fivefold increase in attacks against merchant shipping in the past month.

When she arrives in the region in a few weeks,
Richmond will, Mr Shapps said “provide resilience to the UK’s presence in the Gulf”.

If necessary, the frigate will use her Sea Ceptor anti-missile system to protect herself and merchant vessels, as well as providing the wider assurance of the presence of a warship.

She heads for the Middle East having only returned to Devonport shortly before Christmas on another short-notice mission, helping to protect undersea infrastructure in the Baltic in support of regional allies...


A great time to be talking about cuts!

Fourthly: Bootnecks and amphibious capabilities. This was on the RN website yesterday:

Another year at the sharp end: Royal Marines in 2023 - Royal Navy

Looking north to the Arctic Circle and Baltic, Commandos carried out their annual winter deployment in Norway to keep themselves razor sharp for combat in the extreme cold – honing skills in survival, the ability move across the snow and ice and, finally, fight alongside allies in one of the world’s most unforgiving environments.

Following this up, Royal Marines headed to the Baltic Sea to take part in Sweden’s largest military drills in 25 years before heading to Estonia for Baltops – the largest annual NATO training in the region.

Commandos returned to the Baltic this month, taking part in Finland’s first major military drills as a NATO member and mastering the complex coastline near to capital Helsinki.

There remains ongoing operations in the Mediterranean, while 45 Commando have just completed Exercise
Green Dagger – which saw the Arbroath-based unit work in the High Sierras in California to conduct high altitude and advanced mountain training.

At home in the UK, Royal Marines spent more than six months training nearly 1,000 Ukrainian counterparts in the art of commando raiding and complex amphibious operations.

Specialist instructors from across the UK Commando Force passed on invaluable expertise and knowledge in how to plan and carry out raids using small boats by day and night.

“Whether at sea or on land, in training or on operations, the Royal Marines have truly embodied the Defence purpose of protect the nation and help it prosper – and I am immensely proud of all you have achieved,” added General Jenkins.

“Behind every Marine is a network of support and strength, and I’d like to share my heartfelt gratitude for the sacrifices made by those who stand by our side and allow us to focus and succeed on operations.

“To them, I send my deepest gratitude and admiration for the part they play in protecting our Nation.

“As we look ahead to our 360th year, 2024 promises to be no less exciting.

“While it’s impossible to predict exactly where the Royal Marines will find themselves, rest assured, the warfighting Commando Force and expertise of the Royal Marines will be in high demand!”
---

In Den Helder, the two NATO and Joint Expeditionary Force allies shared plans on ships to carry the vehicles, boats, aircraft, and weaponry of highly-trained marines – and, vitally, land them ashore wherever they’re needed...

Fifthly: We got too accustomed to peaceful seas - Freight Waves

It’s somewhat ahistorical that the world’s oceans have been relatively painless to navigate in the second half of the 20th century, permitting trade to flow around the world. That was not the case for much of human history. “Pirates, predatory states, and the fleets of great powers did as they pleased,” wrote Jerry Hendrix, senior fellow at the Sagamore Institute, in The Atlantic last year. “The current reality, which dates only to the end of World War II, makes possible the commercial shipping that handles more than 80% of all global trade by volume — oil and natural gas, grain and raw ores, manufactured goods of every kind.”

Such peace can no longer be assumed. It’s unclear whether ongoing diversions from the Suez Canal will become the norm going forward, but it’s clear that things are shifting — and it’s not in the favor of frictionless trade or a U.S. hegemony.

“It was almost like you had a conveyor belt from the shoe factory in Bangladesh to the shop in Chicago,” said Simon Sundboell, founder and CEO of Copenhagen-based maritime intelligence company eeSea. “That’s just not happening anymore. You’re in a world that’s going increasingly from American-controlled unipolar to multipolar globally. You’re going to have a much more fraught supply chain, and every BCO [beneficial cargo owner], importer, exporter, and logistics provider is going to have to deal with that going forward. The Houthis are just one step in that.”
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Old 12th Jan 2024, 13:44
  #7185 (permalink)  
 
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Can someone explain why our carrier is in Portsmouth and we are flying Typhoons out of Cyprus?
I would have thought Yemen would be a great proving ground?
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Old 12th Jan 2024, 14:31
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Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
Can someone explain why our carrier is in Portsmouth and we are flying Typhoons out of Cyprus?
I would have thought Yemen would be a great proving ground?
Because there is already a US carrier in-theatre with more than enough aboard to give the Houthi a malleting. Our participation in the operation is primarily symbolic at this point and more efficiently done - at this scale - from Akrotiri than by sailing the CSG and disrupting the on-going build up of the Lightning force.

You don't need F35 to operate over Houthi territory, so you're not really proving anything as yet. Now - if this goes on for any extended period, then a UK CSG taking a turn on-station to free up the USN to move closer to the Gulf might be a useful option.
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Old 12th Jan 2024, 17:27
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I think Tom Sharpe has made some excellent points. The key is that whilst the quality of HM Forces is still very high, the quantity is well, well below that required to defend the UK s interests. Even more than that, from a numbers point of view [both personnel and numbers of a/c, ships, weapons and ammunition], the UK is barely in a position to defend itself. Reminiscent of the 1930s..................
If you want to live in a free democracy, you have to be prepared to invest in a military able to defend it. The alternative is horrendous.
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Old 12th Jan 2024, 18:00
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Originally Posted by Not_a_boffin
Because there is already a US carrier in-theatre with more than enough aboard to give the Houthi a malleting. Our participation in the operation is primarily symbolic at this point and more efficiently done - at this scale - from Akrotiri than by sailing the CSG and disrupting the on-going build up of the Lightning force.

You don't need F35 to operate over Houthi territory, so you're not really proving anything as yet. Now - if this goes on for any extended period, then a UK CSG taking a turn on-station to free up the USN to move closer to the Gulf might be a useful option.
Presumably we would not want to use Fifth Gen assets, in case of loss/revealing capability to interested parties. This would be somewhat problematical if we have nothing else to offer?
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Old 12th Jan 2024, 19:58
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We've used 5gen assets over Syria which is arguably a higher threat area. Suspect it's simply because - at this stage - a symbolic attack with what's in theatre does the trick.
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Old 12th Jan 2024, 23:07
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Perhaps some of you missed this press release from the Prime Minister's Office - 13 Oct 23:

The carrier group, including HMS Queen Elizabeth, will return early next year to lead the UK’s contribution to the first phase of NATO’s most ambitious military drill since the Cold War, Exercise Steadfast Defender.

The operation will span almost six months and see 16,000 UK soldiers deploy to Estonia and Norway...


The Houthis are not at the top of our list of threats. The Russians are, and contributing to NATO fits in with constraining Vlad - see the explanations of CONSTRAIN in the Maritime Operating Concept. The 2021 defence paper, written nearly a year before the invasion of Ukraine, correctly recognised the threat posed by an aggressive Russia and prioritised NATO and the Euro-Atlantic.

I see that a Telegraph writer is claiming that we are not sending a carrier to the Red Sea due to a lack of personnel. I wonder how they managed to find enough people for the CSG23 and WESTLANT23 deployments, and where have all these sailors gone since then?

Sad to see such an esteemed paper go downhill.
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Old 13th Jan 2024, 09:34
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"The Houthis are not at the top of our list of threats."

they will be if they close the Red Sea and drive the price of oil and inflation up in an election year
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Old 13th Jan 2024, 18:57
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WEBF - you if gave the Telegraph article as much attention as you no doubt expect people on here to pay to your vast cut and paste diatribes you will see that the Telegraph writer says the lack of manpower refers to Fort Victoria, and that an RN carrier group will have insufficient support to be able to deploy.

That may or may not be the case, but if you're going to criticise a piece of work at least criticise what the article said in full - not what you picked up by skim reading the first two lines.

Sad to see what/who going downhill....?

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Old 19th Jan 2024, 11:55
  #7193 (permalink)  
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I still think that the headline was misleading.

Anyway, this week British forces for Exercise Steadfast Defender 24 were announced - the maritime element includes:

- A UK Carrier Strike Group, centred on a Queen Elizabeth Class aircraft carrier and her air group of F-35B Lightning jets and helicopters, and surrounded by escort frigates and destroyers, will operate as part of a potent naval force of allied warships and submarines in the North Atlantic, the Norwegian Sea and the Baltic Sea.

- More than 400 Royal Marines Commandos will be deployed to the Arctic Circle at the heart of an allied amphibious task group designed to land in the high north and defend the alliance in one of the world’s harshest environments.

In other words UKCSG and LRG(N). Teamwork 88 redux? Well - maybe...

NATO holds its biggest exercises in decades, involving 90k personnel - Military Times

​“The alliance will demonstrate its ability to reinforce the Euro-Atlantic area via transatlantic movement of forces from North America,” NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander, U.S. General Christopher Cavoli, told reporters.

Cavoli said it will demonstrate “our unity, our strength, and our determination to protect each other.”

The chair of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer, said that it’s “a record number of troops that we can bring to bear and have an exercise within that size, across the alliance, across the ocean from the U.S. to Europe.”

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Old 19th Jan 2024, 18:28
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I am getting old and wistfully thinking of Northern Wedding and Reforger.

Anyway back to the current state of the escort fleet. A rather more thoughtful and balanced article in Naval Technology despite the dramatic headline Dire state of the UK Royal Navy’s frigate fleet laid bare



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Old 20th Jan 2024, 08:38
  #7195 (permalink)  
 
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"In a written UK parliamentary written response on 15 January, it was revealed that the UK Royal Navy had 11 Type 23 frigates ‘in service’ – of these, seven platforms were described as being ‘operational’."

it's Ok - there are some on here that don't think we need many frigates.....................
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Old 20th Jan 2024, 10:09
  #7196 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Asturias56

it's Ok - there are some on here that don't think we need many frigates.....................
Never mind, there are some on here that actually understand what they do - and why those given to quoting Nelson demonstrate that they don't.......
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Old 20th Jan 2024, 10:15
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and yet others post about tactical doctrines from the 1940's, the 50's, the 60's as totally relevant today................

The RN is starting to look like an embodiment of Augustine's Law on jet aircraft
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Old 20th Jan 2024, 10:20
  #7198 (permalink)  
 
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This happened on Thursday apparently, but haven't seen anything on UK channels.

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Old 20th Jan 2024, 11:04
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Looks to me some sort of systems failure, regularly see the results of this sort of thing. Theres also photos going around of the damage. Being fiber glass hulls the damage could be fixed fairly quickly. In the civilian world the insurance assessment and the approprate faffing around would take longer than the repair. Assuming there a travel lift big enough to get the ship to a hard stand
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Old 20th Jan 2024, 11:40
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Is it a case that everyone goes to watch so they can't be on the BOI, or is that a thing of the past?
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