Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > PPRuNe Worldwide > Middle East
Reload this Page >

EK to Decommission 50%+ of Airbus A380, Axe 1/2 of Pilots & Cabin Crew

Middle East Many expats still flying in Knoteetingham. Regional issues can be discussed here.

EK to Decommission 50%+ of Airbus A380, Axe 1/2 of Pilots & Cabin Crew

Old 2nd Aug 2020, 18:38
  #741 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Europe
Posts: 704
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
I am absolutely not worried about whether or not aviation will recover to its pre-pandemic levels. Sure it will reach and exceed that level, it's a matter of time. From what I can see, most people in active age don't have any intention of staying put forever. Many are finding ways and means to travel even in the current, fairly complicated environment.

However, what puts a greater question mark over Emirates in the longer term is - will the hub-and-spoke model be desirable in the future? The marked shift towards smaller long-haul aircraft can be explained with the fact that more and more people want direct flights between origin-destination pairs rather than connecting ones. And those O-D pairs can rarely fill up an A380. So, competition from carriers operating direct flights is what I would be worried about when it comes to Emirates.
PilotLZ is offline  
Old 2nd Aug 2020, 18:39
  #742 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Dubai - sand land.
Age: 54
Posts: 2,831
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by WB1900
plus for those are here still flying very hard times in terms of roasters to bridge the roughly 900 missing pilots
Maybe we'll be busy but as for roasting?
White Knight is offline  
Old 2nd Aug 2020, 20:59
  #743 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: MUC
Posts: 106
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
All absolute rubbish, there won’t be any new hires for a few years at least at EK, most of the 380 will never fly again, and y3s, I agree new hires will be on different contracts, but so do the people remaining here, salary will be at most 50 pc of previous levels, and it will only increase once people start leaving the Middle East because there are jobs back in their home countries
g109 is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 00:19
  #744 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Spain
Posts: 33
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by SOPS
Point taken WK. I think what I was trying to say is this.. Just because people want it to go back to ‘normal’.. it won’t. Not for a long time.

Those of us in WA are looking at Victoria going into a total lock down tonight. Most people in WA love our borders shut.

i must admit.. I don’t know one person that I know, that wants to travel overseas at the moment.

Anyway we can agree to disagree 👍
Just for info; here in Canada we can now get a travel insurance for covid for an extra 60$. Most of our flights between Canada and Europe are between half to 3/4 full at the moment (321LR). Most people I know want to travel (and I am pretty sure this winter -covid or not- our flights to the Caribbean will be full anyway ).

Last edited by RMP2; 3rd Aug 2020 at 01:38.
RMP2 is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 00:56
  #745 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Asia
Posts: 1,406
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Any CEO is going to talk things up rather than down, IATA are looking at 2024 before a return to 2019 levels. Even if a vaccine was approved today, the lead time to produce, distribute and apply it is still a few months.

The A380 has had its time and the business model needs to change. EK may end up flying to more cities using smaller aircraft such as the B787-8. KLM fly to more UK destinations than British Airways, offering connections through AMS.

Point to point between destinations will be increasingly common but connections will still be required for secondary cities. Birmingham to Delhi might go direct but Liverpool to Bangalore would connect through a hub.

A fleet comprising B787-8/9/10 and A320/1/LR would make sense going forward as these types are more flexible, cheaper and open up cities which can’t fill a B777. Major city to secondary city will increasingly bypass hubs as these routes can now be done with the B787. Secondary city pairs still require hubs but need smaller aircraft.

The experience of the past few months, and market projections going forward are likely to result in a serious rethink of the fleet mix, the other two have much more flexibility when traffic plunges.
krismiler is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 02:36
  #746 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: San Diego
Posts: 52
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by SOPS
So I will come in here. The lock downs have caused a travel crisis ? True. But why is it such a big thing? The lockdowns are ( I hope) saving lives in ( at least ) Australia and NZ. If Ek and others canít operate 30 flights a week into Australia.. well that could be the new normal . Im on leave here for a month.. Iím in Western Australia. We want to go away for a week. Everything is full. Western Australians are travelling at home.

Overseas travel is finished. For a long time. Itís not coming back. Even if I wanted to go overseas ( if I was allowed to).. no insurance company will cover me.

Im sorry.. but as much as you hope for that things will go back to how they were.. with 100 EK jets departing around the world between midnight and six am.... itís over for a long time.

IMHO
completely strict lockdowns may work, but perhaps less strict methods would work too. It will take time to see if this course was the correct path. It may be that the social and economic damages from a complete lockdown exceed the benefits that could also be obtained with a different policy of testing and tracing. The goal posts move as we learn more about the successful ways to contain the spread of Covid.

why is that such a big thing? My guess is your job hasnít been impacted. Many in NZ feel different. Iím not saying youíre wrong, just that there is a counter point.
cessnaxpilot is online now  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 03:14
  #747 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Brisvegas
Posts: 3,683
Likes: 0
Received 73 Likes on 41 Posts
IATA are looking at 2024 before a return to 2019 levels.
They are actually saying 2023 for passenger numbers and 2024 for RPKs. A small point in a sea of uncertainty I know. Bottom line is they have no idea.

https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-07-28-02/
Icarus2001 is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 05:08
  #748 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: Changes
Posts: 219
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
I think when demand does eventually come back it will be rapid. How Emirates will cope with that with its current staffing levels will be interesting. When other loads do return all the major airlines will be scrabbling for pilots so the ones that treated its staff the worst may struggle since experienced pilots will have opportunity to look elsewhere.

TC fire and rehire statement may work for a gradual recovery but in a rapid one it will struggle.
Fired600 is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 05:39
  #749 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Asia
Posts: 1,406
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
EK are highly dependent on those km as they fly smaller pax numbers longer distances in large aircraft vs other airlines which fly larger pax numbers shorter distances in smaller aircraft. The link below shows EK as having the 4th highest scheduled pax kms in the world but in pax numbers and fleet size aren't even in the top ten. Ryanair have a larger fleet and carry more pax but don't make the top ten in scheduled pax kms.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larges...s_in_the_world

In the current environment, the Ryanair business model looks the more viable, being essentially point to point over shorter distances with aircraft which are easier to fill and no reliance on premium travel. I'm well aware that the airlines are very different and cater to seperate market segments, and prior to COVID EK was a very successful and expanding business. Now things have turned upside down and the post COVID environment will be very different. Ryanair need to make few if any changes to their basic model and their market sector will recover first. EK need to completely re-examine their business plan and make major changes to suit the new order. Fleet mix, destinations served and premium cabins need to go under the microscope.

The week in Spain for the bucket and spade brigade will recover pretty quickly, long distance business and premium tourist traffic will be a long way behind.

krismiler is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 07:27
  #750 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Dubai - sand land.
Age: 54
Posts: 2,831
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by krismiler
the post COVID environment will be very different.
No it won't.... Traffic will come back. It'll take time but it will come back!
White Knight is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 07:35
  #751 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: Changes
Posts: 219
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by krismiler
The week in Spain for the bucket and spade brigade will recover pretty quickly, long distance business and premium tourist traffic will be a long way behind.
Yes you are correct, the short haul will recover first for sure. When the long haul does recover though it will be a rapid recovery I believe. Thats where EK might have problems, It will be a scrabble for suitable pilots and those that have been stung may have other more viable options at that stage, for companies that have not screwed them over.
Fired600 is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 08:24
  #752 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Stuttgart
Posts: 247
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
EK won’t have a problem to hire people again the only question is what will they get
they have lowered the requirements successfully to nearly zero. EK is on the brink to go to most un-expierenced flight-decks in the Industrie for the type of operation - but it’s cheap
there is no airline where a cadet goes direct onto a 380 or 777 as most of being redundant have had to bring thousand of jet and flight hours upfront EK - new joiners are at near zero and cadets are at zero
they will hire everybody who is willing to sign up on those coming TC’s
subcontinental pilot are lining up to get the Wizz Deal imagine who’s gonna be there if EK opens.
for them DXB is wholly Gral of countries to live as for many others in Africa, South America and Asia
WB1900 is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 10:01
  #753 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: Changes
Posts: 219
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Inexperience will bite them hard sooner or later. Combined with ridiculous flight time limitations that are as flexible as a rubber band (Far East turnarounds for example, 24hr duty days, etc etc), along with an exceptionally challenging route structure, is a recipe for disaster.
Fired600 is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 10:48
  #754 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Asia
Posts: 1,406
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
No it won't.... Traffic will come back. It'll take time but it will come back!
If anyone had said back in March that we'd still be largely grounded with borders closed going into August, no one would have believed them. All of us know someone who's been laid off, if we haven't been laid off ourselves. Recovery will take years if not decades and belt tightening will be the new normal. As traffic increases, the mix will be different as people cut back and downgrade, two weeks in Florida becomes ten days in Spain for the British traveller on his annual holiday. The five day break in Spain becomes a long weekend in Amsterdam.

I'm currently on about 45% of my previous income, if I'm still employed and getting 75% by the end of the year I'll be delighted. My expenditure will be cut way back compared to last year as debts get paid off and savings rebuilt. Plenty of people want to travel but very few will be able to do it in style.
krismiler is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 12:14
  #755 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NQLD
Age: 37
Posts: 273
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by Fired600
I think when demand does eventually come back it will be rapid. How Emirates will cope with that with its current staffing levels will be interesting. When other loads do return all the major airlines will be scrabbling for pilots so the ones that treated its staff the worst may struggle since experienced pilots will have opportunity to look elsewhere.

TC fire and rehire statement may work for a gradual recovery but in a rapid one it will struggle.
You are missing the point. Doesnít matter whether itís a fast recovery or a slow one. EK and every other airline on the planet has to survive until a recovery starts.

All well and good saying theyíll have trouble expanding in X months or years. The industry is f****d until a vaccine arrives or the virus dies off (like SARS). Planning for a recovery is irrelevant until then.

No point having an acceptance speech ready when you donít even finish the race!!!
aviation_enthus is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 12:18
  #756 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NQLD
Age: 37
Posts: 273
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by krismiler
If anyone had said back in March that we'd still be largely grounded with borders closed going into August, no one would have believed them.
I would have. It was a reasonable assumption to say it wasnít going to be over in a couple of weeks. Given thereís no vaccine and the initial actions of governments around the world were aiming to Ďflatten the curveí, it was always going to take a long time to pass.

I suggest some of you read up on history an how long some the plague epidemics lasted for.
aviation_enthus is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 12:44
  #757 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: Changes
Posts: 219
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Emirates will survive, of that I have no doubt. We all knew to do that that cuts would be need to be made. The method of the cuts, the seemingly heartless methods of selection (Pregnancy, previous surgery, cancer) and deployment of the said cuts are the problem we mainly have.
Where other major world players have managed to make small cuts to staff numbers, protect families with the pain of salary cuts shared to keep employee cuts to a minimum, Emirates have opted for the slash and burn policy, along with 50% plus salary cuts, whilst still paying money out the certain parties of 1.056Bn makes it difficult to swallow.
Fired600 is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 14:33
  #758 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Stuttgart
Posts: 247
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by g109
All absolute rubbish, there wonít be any new hires for a few years at least at EK, most of the 380 will never fly again, and y3s, I agree new hires will be on different contracts, but so do the people remaining here, salary will be at most 50 pc of previous levels, and it will only increase once people start leaving the Middle East because there are jobs back in their home countries
is what I try to say
if STC is right - if not thatís gonna be long stretch for upgrades or new hires - a very long one - on top locals will be preferred by all means and we are back to square one where there is not much of a future for expats in this company unless drastic changes for the better are made to fill the positions
if you have been lucky to still have a job - once market opens many will reconsider the value of being in dubai with EK
WB1900 is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 15:39
  #759 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: Changes
Posts: 219
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by WB1900
if you have been lucky to still have a job - once market opens many will reconsider the value of being in dubai with EK
Isnít that the truth !
Fired600 is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 16:17
  #760 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: West Country
Posts: 1,271
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by WB1900
EK wonít have a problem to hire people again the only question is what will they get
they have lowered the requirements successfully to nearly zero. EK is on the brink to go to most un-expierenced flight-decks in the Industrie for the type of operation - but itís cheap
there is no airline where a cadet goes direct onto a 380 or 777 as most of being redundant have had to bring thousand of jet and flight hours upfront EK - new joiners are at near zero and cadets are at zero
they will hire everybody who is willing to sign up on those coming TCís
subcontinental pilot are lining up to get the Wizz Deal imagine whoís gonna be there if EK opens.
for them DXB is wholly Gral of countries to live as for many others in Africa, South America and Asia

I think this is what a lot of posters on here forget. It's easy to say that people will never work for such a terrible outfit again if you have other options, and in general crews from Europe and North America do have other options. But for individuals who are on passports where getting a work visa for Europe or North America is difficult if not impossible then working for the carriers in the ME even with all their negatives is still a good job compared to their options back home.

When (if - as I dont think it is a given) then industry recovers to the point where it starts thinking of expansion then I simply cannot see EK or any other ME carrier having any problem finding decent applicants. OK they may not be as many applicants from Europe as we have seen in the past but there are still many excellent professionals in developing countries who would be happy to take the job.
Jet II is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information

Copyright © 2023 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.