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Virgin Blue is here to stay.

 
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Old 9th Dec 2001, 09:38
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Post Virgin Blue is here to stay.

Virgin seeks alliances

From AAP
09dec01

BUDGET airline Virgin Blue is negotiating with a number of international carriers about possible alliances, Chief Executive Brett Godfrey said.

"We're in negotiations with a couple of very interesting overseas players at the moment," Mr Godfrey said today.

"I reckon by Christmas, we'll probably announce a couple of deals with major carriers.

"It will certainly disappoint or surprise the Ansetts of this world who we're talking to."

Unlike traditional international alliances, Virgin is looking at arrangements which will allow the international carriers to handle their own passengers at Virgin terminals in exchange for "a super deal".

Aviation experts consider a lack of an international arm one of the biggest stumbling blocks for Virgin Blue's assault on the dominance of Qantas.

Mr Godfrey was talking to journalists on the inaugural Virgin Blue flight from Melbourne to Perth today.

Virgin Blue will also start flying to Darwin this month, finally giving it status as a national airline.

Part of the Richard Branson Virgin empire, the airline is still targeting a public listing by around September or October next year.

"If we obtain the numbers that I think we can obtain this year at a March year end, then I'll feel comfortable that we can go to the market based on our 2003 earnings," Mr Godfrey said.

He would not give a prediction for 2003 but is confident of meeting market predictions of $30 million in earnings for 2001-2002.

"With the number of planes we have in the air next year, our forecasts are significantly higher than that.

At the moment, Virgin Blue has an agreement in principle to sell a majority stake in the airline to stevedoring group, Lang Corp.

"Lang would allow us to grow more quickly and realise our full potential earlier," Mr Godfrey said.

The deal hinges on whether the Lew-Fox consortium wins control of the Ansett business.

Even if Virgin is unsuccessful in taking control of the troubled airline's assets, Mr Godfrey believes there is still room for a deal between the two groups.

"It's very possible ... they've got a good record and their business ideas are very aligned to us," he said.

"Conceptually there would be something even if this deal doesn't go ahead."

Virgin Blue is also considering branding arrangements with some regional airlines.

"We're contemplating doing that with some of the regional players who are putting consortiums together," Mr Godfrey said.

"We wouldn't own them but we would infuse our culture and our cost base and our management ... and they would pay royalties for that privilege."

The airline has already aligned itself with two parties in WA and South Australia who are bidding for the Ansett regional services.
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Old 9th Dec 2001, 09:47
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Fantastic!
Next they will put in a takeover offer for qantas.
That Mr Branson certainly is a wealthy guy.
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Old 9th Dec 2001, 10:52
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Firstly, I wonder what is meant by: "Virgin is looking at arrangements which will allow the international carriers to handle their own passengers at Virgin terminals in exchange for 'a super deal'".

Does this mean int'l airlines will use Common user terminals? I doubt it!

Secondly, I am curious as to which groups Virgin has aligned itself with in its pursual of ex-AN regional airlines.

Thirdly, alliances etc will no doubt raise the costs for Virgin Blue. Not having a FF program will become a hindrance and will prevent major int'l carriers from aligning with Virgin and what is more, Virgin will have to be able to interline passengers as well as offering multi-flight itineraries. Both these things would no doubt involve new computer programs etc etc.

I will be interested to hear more on this, but to me Virgin sounds as if it's becoming more and more like one of the majors... If you look at Southwest, they never considered any of the above!
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Old 9th Dec 2001, 11:25
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Don't hold your breath. If you look at the past track record both Branson & Godfrey are masters of obtaining free publicity and the media hasn't woken up to their tactics yet. Fact - launch new service to Perth alone and the media will not be interested . However tear up a cheque, throw some visual stunt or make some provocative statement and the media will cover your event. Look at all the statements Godfrey has made over the Ansett (Blue Hills) saga and most have come come to nothing, just stirring the pot and being provocative - but keeps the Virgin name in the press. e:g: If DJ were fair dinkum about QF squeezing them out on Bne - Isa then why not grizzle to ACCC before you pull out. No you pull out then grizzle and get free publicity. They had "no ticker" to stay with Bne - Isa , but they got free publicity by crying foul after pulling out.
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Old 9th Dec 2001, 11:50
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Hopefully their alliance partner will be AirNz, then Ansett can kill two birds with one stone.
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Old 9th Dec 2001, 13:53
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Boeing Belly do you actually work for Ansett? If you do, you certainly do not share the common belief of the Ansett people. We wish no ill on either AirNZ or Virgin Blue. There is room for us all, and jobs to be had hopefully by us all as well. Please do not associate your rediculous and destructive crap with the Ansett name. You do not help our cause.
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Old 9th Dec 2001, 14:15
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You're very naive Bronte, both AirNZ and Virgin want Ansett gone. Who do you think appointed PriceWaterhouseCoopers to administer Ansett! Thank goodness the ACTU were made aware that they were only hours away from liquidating Ansett. As for Virgin, I have no gripe with them. I have a lot of friends over there but this business is now cut-throat. The only guaranteed survivor is Qantas, Virgin and Ansett will be left to battle it out for the crumbs. Only one will survive and I don't feel bad that I hope its Ansett. If we could come together ala Impulse and QF thats even better.
I spoke wit one of the administrators and he indicated that prior to AirNZ giving Ansett the flick they asked both PWC and Andersons what each of their plans were. PWC said that they would liquidate, Andersons said they would sell as a going concern. Guess who got the job?
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Old 9th Dec 2001, 14:29
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Boeing Belly my dear friend. Of course AirNZ wanted to kill Ansett after they lead us off the plank. I have stated in other threads that although Ansett was in huge trouble prior to AirNZ 100% ownership, it was AirNZ who vetoed the SIA deal and so AirNZ must be fully responsible for Ansett's demise. AirNZ bought a complete dog in Ansett and then shot it, despite the SIA rescue package. (which ironically would have helped AirNZ heaps as well)

So I'm glad we can agree on one thing. However, you must remember that ordinary people work for AirNZ, and they sure as hell didn't kill Ansett. It was that Farmer and his incompetant and completely useless board of directors. Of course senior management would have also played thier little part, and, like you, I don't really care wheather or not they have jobs at xmas or not.

So what I am saying is this; I want to see all the airlines survive because I know good people work for them. People who say "there's only room for 2" in a country of 20,000,000+ are kidding themselves. With QFs new fleet, virgins 30 and Ansetts 30 is hardly a big flood. QF will start putting thier int'l shedule back together next year I would think. Good day.

[ 09 December 2001: Message edited by: Woomera ]
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Old 9th Dec 2001, 14:41
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I'm afraid history will prove you wrong Bronte, it's been proven that only two can survive. Do you think that if both Virgin and Ansett both have thirty aircraft they'll happily play along with each other. Didn't they used to call that the "two airline policy"? No, what will happen is one will want to be bigger than the other and the spiral dive begins again. If Virgin floats, then just like QF they will have an obligation to share-holders to maximise profits. How do they do that? by increasing market share. Where do they get the extra market share? not from Qantas. They will take the path of least resistance, as would Ansett, and try to take some of our market. We would then respond, probably by offering cheaper flights and then lo and behold here we go again.
I will agree to disagree about AirNZ. Perhaps you're on the Airbus and the cut is'nt as deep. If you're on the Boeing or 146 I wish you well in the game of musical chairs we're about to play.

[ 09 December 2001: Message edited by: Boeing Belly ]
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Old 9th Dec 2001, 15:09
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Boeing Belly

What I fail to see, using SYD-MEL as an
example, whereas Ansett today only has a
20%+ load factor and VB 75%+, is how AN-3
is going to woo the extra LF over from both
QF and VB, especially when VB has lower
costs.

Wirraway
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Old 9th Dec 2001, 15:27
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The load factors on the SY run are above 50% without the use of travel agents, on carriage, corporate accounts etc. Come 1st February, Ansett is back in the Star Alliance, with Star Alliance on-carriage, the travel agents will be selling Ansett tickets again and corporate accounts will return. Mny of our ex-business type passengers have indicated their willingness to come back to Ansett when we get our ducks in a row.
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Old 9th Dec 2001, 15:42
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BRONTE.You must be a loner, and by that I mean you must be the only person in Ansett who feels the way that you do.
I agree with Boeing Belly in that there is no room for three major players in the current market.The initial fight will between Ansett and Virgin,and make no mistake,it will be a fight to the death.Virgin have already thrown the first punch with 250000(or however much it was)seats available from Feb 02 specifically aimed at Ansett,right between the eyes.
In Brisbane there was a death to Ansett party after the collapse.A bit premature I thinks.So they will certainly be looking forward to an "absolte death to Ansett party".
There will be only two airlines operating in a year or so.Have a good look at what Virgin are doing at the moment,there giving 110% in all areas.The big question is,is it enough to stop Fox/Lew.?

I Don't thing so.

WIRRAWAY.Somebody has probably already replied to you ,because its taking me 20 minutes to type this far.In case no one has,I can tell you that what Ansett is doing at the moment should NO way be interpreted as to what Ansett is going to look like come Feb 01.All thats happening now is to keep the place ticking, a flag waving exercise to let people know that we're still here.To keep the staff skill up and to make the sale more attractive to a purchaser by having it operating.You will have to wait for the big guns to be pulled, but when they do they will be blazing!!!.
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Old 9th Dec 2001, 16:01
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Boeing Belly

I did not know that AN-2 had 50%+, It was
only last week that the press reported the
administrators admitting that they only had
20%+ load factor on SYD-MEL and that they
needed 65% to break even, it's getting one
does not know who to believe.

Wirraway
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Old 10th Dec 2001, 02:50
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Boeing Belly maybe you are right, but I hope you won't be. Re the obligation to shareholders, don't forget aeroplanes are quite pricey, and an operator who buys or leases more than are required are not doing the shareholders any good. By 2003 AN and VB should have around 30 each, and QF however many. If that is all Australia can sustain then any operator (AN or VB) who bring more in knowing full well the market can't take them (but yes, with the hope the other guy loses pax to them) are crazy and will likely get burned. If you look at Branson's other virgins (sun etc) he does not try to flood the market unsustainably.

Yes I'm on the Airbus. I take it you are on a boeing? There seems to be some light for the Boeing boys/girls, for example in Qantas and Virgin. (oh, but they are going to fold ) 767 drivers probably have a better chance in AN2 than thier 737 cousins. I pity the 146 drivers, particulary as some of them have been FOs on it for the best part of a decade. Who knows what the future holds for them....

Thumbs up maybe you should ask your collegues how they feel, I'm sure 90% of them don't want to see Virgin die, along with the jobs of thousands of Aussies and fellow pilots.
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Old 10th Dec 2001, 03:08
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The worm begins to turn!

Tesna risk cuts appeal of Virgin

By MARK TODD
SYDNEY
Monday 10 December 2001

Sir Richard Branson's budget airline Virgin Blue may struggle to get its much-vaunted $1 billion sharemarket float off the ground should the Lew/Fox Tesna consortium win the remains of Ansett.

Major institutions, while prepared to consider investing in a participant in a duopoly, were reluctant to risk funds on a carrier in a three-airline market. Fierce competition played a large part in forcing Impulse Airlines from interstate routes in May and in the collapse of Ansett in September.

"A Virgin Blue float would be difficult to get away if Tesna is successful in acquiring Ansett," said Macquarie Equities transport analyst Ian Myles.

Fund managers expressed similar views but were more abrupt in their assessments. One, when asked whether he would buy into Virgin should Tesna enter the market, replied: "Absolutely not. It would be ridiculous."

The potential for another outbreak of cutthroat competition would make a Virgin float too risky a proposition. Investors cited similar reasons for passing over plans by Impulse for a public offer and ASX listing late last year.

Currently, Virgin Blue and Qantas have almost the entire domestic market to themselves. However, Solomon Lew and Lindsay Fox's Tesna consortium has struck a $3.6 billion agreement to take over Ansett's interstate routes and buy the operator's terminals.

Tesna is waiting for the Federal Court to approve the government's proposed $195 million loan to Ansett's administrators to cover employee redundancies. A ruling is due on Tuesday and the administrators hope to close the sale by the end of January.

However, Virgin Blue was adamant investors would at some stage next year get the opportunity to invest in the airline, most likely towards the end of 2002.

Chief executive Brett Godfrey is believed to have promised, in recent presentations to large investors, pre-tax earnings in excess of $30 million for the year ending March 31, 2002.

"The float would still go ahead," a Virgin Blue spokeswoman said.

"Virgin is proving very successful, and Sir Richard has always said he'd give the public a chance to invest once the risk was removed."

Virgin plans to have 16 planes flying before the new year and 25 in the sky in 2002.

Chris Corrigan's Lang Corp has teamed up with Virgin Blue to make a tilt at Ansett's terminals. If successful, Lang will take a 51 per cent interest in Virgin for $300 million.

The Virgin Blue spokeswoman said the airline was aware it would reach capacity at its own facilities within about 12 to 18 months should it fail to acquire the Ansett terminals.

"Other options are being looked at" should the terminals go to Tesna, she said
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Old 10th Dec 2001, 05:04
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Okie - a very realistic thread but the point was put by the Stock Brokers when asked would they invest in VB with Ansett II up and running.
The resounding "NO" speaks a thousand words.

Now here is my stance:

Virgin Blue and Ansett will as someone said be left to fight over the crumbs as Qantas does dominate the skies and always will.

Both are companies with great staff working for them and I believe there should be jobs for all - but only realistically speaking.
Without terminal space VB is stuffed - dont even consider a float - the brokers were unanimous on that.
Besides,the float is the result of Richard Branson in a desperate financial position which we wont go denying at the cost of sounding stupid with the facts looking us in the face.

What is left people??

If ANsett Mk II starts up then the very fine profit margin of VB will deteriorate to the extent that cash flow will be inhibited and either many routes will have to be dropped or many staff laid off.

If ANsett doesn't provide terminal space then ditto in the long term.

The solution???
What about ANsett and VB doing a tie-up - granting terminal space and striking a commercial agreement to the mutual benefit of both.

It certainly beats Qantas in a lot of areas - especially operating costs 25% cheaper for the 2 minor airlines.
If a full service airline can offer that then Qantas will have no choice but to either match the cost structure of VB/ANsett or lose alot of market share.

Virgin Blue here to stay????
Maybe - but only if alot of concessions are made and terminal access is granted in Sydney/Melbourne etc.
 
Old 10th Dec 2001, 05:38
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Okie,
nice to see someone posting positive press about AN.I used to rely on LAME but he was very selective in what he posted.
Good work Okie.
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Old 10th Dec 2001, 07:03
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This may not be very palatable to some, but I think the following is a realistic outcome to this "mess".

Ansett will get up and running. What will save them is the cash reserves that Fox and Lew have provided. Their operating costs will be way under QF.

Virgin will suffer terribly when Ansett starts again. They have limited reserves with nothing from Head Office in the UK and essentially relying on day to day cash flow to keep going.

BUT - Ansett also has limited up side unless it gets bigger fairly rapidly.

The idea of Ansett and Virgin getting into bed may yet eventuate. This would achieve two things:

1. Give Virgin a chance to survive using AN terminals and infrastructure as a low cost arm of Ansett.


2. It would give Ansett critical mass to oppose QF in a big way.

This idea will no doubt be laughed at by extremists in both camps, but I think this is the only real way forward for Virgin. (and indeed Ansett)

Maybe if Lang had come on to the scene at the beginning, things may have turned out differently, but the reality is that Fox and Lew are almost there.
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Old 10th Dec 2001, 10:36
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Statoblade,
think your scenario plausible and likely.Fascinating pilot integration problems.

The original Cheong AN,AirNZ,VB & SQ tie up terrified QF.It terrified the government too,hence the stymieing of the efforts ably assisted,though not realising the consequences,by the NZ government.

If the above went ahead combined with Sept 11 and industrial uncertainty,I don`t reckon QF`s share price would be a fraction of its` present value.LAMEs portfolio would be devastated!
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Old 10th Dec 2001, 11:44
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Bulldog

Yes - Given the personalities in each company, I would love to be a fly on the wall when the so called "integration negotiations" took place.

Some of the protagonists may have to be sedated before they faced each other in a merged company!
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