I dont think it refers to deaths either but if there are 1000 cases a week coming in its not going to be long before there are hundreds seeking hospital beds closely followed by the deaths.
Just look at whats going on outside of oz.

You seem to be missing the point.

ONCE vaccinations are widespread, here in Oz, and in those countries we open up to, CASES may be high if the vaccines prove not to stop infection (which they seem to) but because of the vaccinations, those cases are basically a mild cold at worst, and most likely would show no symptoms. We need to move away from CASE numbers being an important metric. If you have 1000 cases with zero disease, it won’t matter.

Just like the common cold / flu - if you tested the community, there would be thousands per week being infected, but very few of those need medical attention. The same will become true for COVID.

Well if that proves to be correct it will be a good result.
The trouble with what scomo said is that nobody (himself included) really knows what he is trying to say.
He is more interested in photo opportunities & talking about 'Jenny & I'

I’m sorry to say that vaccination certificates carried by inbound travellers won’t be worth the cardboard their printed on. Human nature being what it is, the production of a genuine certificate is a real headache. We will get swamped by the (rich) sick if we open borders and we have no way of containing or treating them.

Im sorry to say that QF international is going to be a very limited semi government service from now on.

I think the politicians need to take a good hard look at themselves, but I doubt they ever will! :)

Consider.
many opening of international travel would need to go hand in hand with policy of NZ et al as we expand our limited travel bubble in the region.

Influx of Covid may be accepted here by the government, however it will likely create a border once again across the Tasman.

The whole scenario is damned by geopolitical intimacy.

Not really. NZ could just ban anyone who hasn't been in Australia for x amount of time or any other possible criteria for people originating from x country in the last x days.

I think you have completely missed the point.

The public will not accept high case numbers. Premiers across Australia are receiving overwhelming mandates for maintaining strict quarantine procedures resulting in low (or no) case numbers. The PM is getting bad press and a loss of confidence of late, the one thing he can hang his hat on is his management of the pandemic. The suppression strategy is gone, an elimination strategy has proven to win votes. You can jump up and down all you like but no one is going to accept COVID cases that come from open borders.

Australia was amongst the first to close, it will be the last to open. Hope for something different by all means, but if you are planning on an October letter calling you back to work, it may not come.

The letter is likely to come next week 👍🏼

The public needs to be educated by the leadership that once vaccinated, case numbers are irrelevant. Given it seems that the vaccine all but eliminates severe disease let alone death we should pay the same attention to Covid case numbers as we do to flu numbers each year. IE basically none.

Precisely. The tone and focus of the briefings need to change.

Exactly Keg, well said :D

Of course, but I think you’ll find that’s a long way off. Look at how the government responded to public pressure concerning the AstroZeneca vaccination. A hint of public concern and it’s effectively pulled from distribution for those under 50. Add to this the delays in vaccine rollout explained away by Scott Morrison because there is no COVID problem here, and consequently no rush and it paints a glacial progression out of this. I daresay the truth of those comments was more along the lines of ‘we actually have no idea of how to navigate our way out of this.’ Fair enough too, it’s quite clearly a complete sh!tshow.

We’re not going to be seeing much education from a Prime Minister who only yesterday was saying that if we open borders we can expect 1000 cases per day and he doesn’t know what would happen if that were to occur.

All I’m saying is, don’t count on international to return to service in October. There are too many nervous people in the government and the public at large for that to happen. I’ve got plans for the next two years away from flying, I suggest other pilots do the same.

The reality is the borders will be closed for years to come. Vaccination of a large portion of the population won't change the politicians stance on zero cases. The Australian people are basically prisoners. Quarantine is here to stay.

Sadly I believe you are correct.
While the vaccine is considered effective when looking at the data on a macro time scale given how new it is. Long term it is still an enormous unknown when it comes to what will happen with further viral mutations (India for example is pushing a 1.3 billion population, god only knows what could happen to the virus as it spreads through the population there) then there is if booster shots will be required and if they will continue to be effective. I mean even the longer term side effects the vaccine may have on our own bodies...far too many unknowns with this virus thus far for Scotty or the airline CEOs to be calling that international ops are open for business from date X.

Getting it back on topic..if that’s the feeling out there, that borders will be closed for years, then what to do with QF International?

How long can International remain it it’s current state, and should the Government intervene with a financial stake? Could be a much better investment long term than just handing out $500/wk to employees with the goalposts moving constantly.

By the 4th quarter of this calendar year both the US and UK, as well as Singapore, will be fully vaccinated. Consequently there will be negligible cases if any. Their borders will be open and unrestricted. The yanks are doing that even now for those vaccinated!

What will Australia do then?

Little if any cases here and over there. Significant numbers of Australians vaccinated. The elderly and vulnerable fully vaccinated.

There will be little logic to argue against travel to these countries.

What little logic exists will result in, at the very least, an arrangement like the Tasman Bubble.

Put the international division into voluntary administration. Clean the slates and start again. Negative publicity will be more than offset by the savings to be had by renegotiating everything from financing to EBAs.

I was half-expecting a response like that from a Virgin pilot. Apples and oranges though...Virgin was/is a great airline but a poor business once JB and his ego got behind the controls. COVID simply accelerated its run into administration.

Whereas QF International is currently being hamstrung by the most restrictive border controls of basically any country in the world. The Government is continuing to contribute to the pain with no pathway out of it, and I’m suggesting that perhaps an equity stake in the Intl arm could be a better option long term than handouts to staff. After Greg Hunt’s comments the other day that even after the vaccine rollout the borders may stay shut makes you wonder how QF Intl can survive in its current form.

Question is how long can QF international survive? If this looks like it’s going to go on for a few years then AJ and shareholders won’t want the rest of the group to spend a cent propping up international. The government may seriously have to look at some kind of arrangement to prop it up if it is to survive
The other option is to let it fail and that would be no good for any Australian.

Substitute QF with any longhaul airline code to get a better answer

If only it was so easy. Our industrial laws don’t allow for what you propose. Besides which, Qantas (Mainline) is one company - no such thing as voluntary administration on a departmental basis.

Again, Greg Hunt was asked if he could absolutely GUARANTEE that the border would stay open - and like everytime
the media ask for a GUARANTEE the answer has to be NO.

His answer of course made headlines with all the usual BS...

Good point...perhaps I got sucked in by the headline along with everyone else! I do feel the rhetoric has changed though - because they have stuffed the vaccine rollout they are becoming more gun shy about opening up.

QF International was pretty small pre-COVID. The 787’s are all now flying and a bunch of A330’s. They lost quite a few to VR, ER and LWOP. Be interesting to know the numbers they still have, probably not too far from a stable part-time workforce apart from the A380.

As long as things don’t go backwards but continue a slow pace forward, there would be no reason to get rid of International. The 787 and A330 flying is only going to increase and they have the option to use them domestically as well.

Another round of VR would have a good take up I would think.

No VR on the horizon for now

Borders opening is ‘when’, not ‘if’ and it’ll be well before the end of next year.

I reckon when they hit the 60% mark they’ll set a date 6 months in the future beyond that and tell the other 40% of the population they have that long to be vaccinated because after that the borders are open.

I also reckon we may have a phased start up. Singapore and Japan could be by years end or potentially earlier- especially in Singapore’s case. My guess is the borders to the USA will be opening around March/ April next year. The UK if they end up with everyone vaccinated and nil transmission could end up open by this Christmas with some minor restrictions for them to isolate upon arrival for a few days until negative test is confirmed. Manila perhaps not for a couple of years.

Depends a bit on how successful the vaccine is in stopping transmission. If it significantly decreases it AND it stops severe Covid AND most of the populations is vaccinated, why would there be any restrictions at all?

As to QF crew numbers, I reckon QF have worked out how to do the minimum and how to hibernate everything. The scenario that is probably giving them nightmares at the moment is if demand roars back. With long lead times required for the A380 to get aeroplanes and crew up to speed it’d take 12 months plus to get all 12 jets back in the air. I reckon they could do 3-4 in four months. 6 Jets in about 9 months. The remaining six would probably take another 6 months on top of that.

Removed pending phone call....

The Union is completely lame. We didn’t use the power of collective bargaining when we had it. We allowed the company to bypass the Union entirely in the last EBA vote.

The company ignored the Union when we had something to bargain with. Why on earth would the company listen to them when we have absolutely nothing to bargain with? They aren’t even pursuing EBA variations anymore.

Don’t need AIPA to sort this one out.

Come the time when slots are advertised, and they will, A380 crew have every right to bid for them. In most cases their seniority will win them the slot. The company cannot knock them back.....it’s the award, sorry EA.

How can the company argue no useful work in that case?

Has AIPA ever been transparent? Every group that leads a charge for a take-over promising bluer skies under delivers just as much as the last.

............

Agreed. Now that I’m emptying my leave bank, I’m looking closely at leaving AIPA until I’m back at work. Nothing political, but if I’m out of work for the next two years I need all the money I can get.

Associate membership available for those not drawing an income from QF. $20/ month. I appreciate that for some even this is a bridge too far at the moment.

Well that was the plan all along.

Absolutely. No surprise that an airline chooses to employ recruits from it’s own academy.

Fantastic news after the year we’ve had that recruitment is starting again. Hopefully more of it to come.

Applications for 36 month secondments from inside the group are open too, I think they close today actually.

So I guess the academy needs more students? Nobody will sign up if they don't think there is Qantas group job at the end.

I'm also guessing they will hire based on what looks good for PR purposes?