Qantas...Post COVID
 

It’s been confirmed that the Oct 2021 ramp up will include 40% of pre COVID levels, increasing to 70% in the following 12 months to Oct 2022. This indicates the 787/330 will be at 100% capacity with the remaining 30% set aside for the potential 380 return 12 months later (Nov 2023)

insert a 20% reduction in flight crew who took VR / ER who won’t be returning.
insert the LH crew who are starting to transition to SH as of next BP

Is it just me or should some serious recruitment, be at the very least being discussed at the round table...
12% of the list are greater than 60 years as it stands today..most are unlikely to be around come 350 ULR ops.

Theres cause for optimism.

I would like to share your enthusiasm but I doubt Australians would be ok with people coming into Australia without quarantine regardless of a negative CoVID test.

Even with the vaccine, some people will refuse to take it and you will still get very small outbreaks in the community. People will still get sick and some will dye.

Yes but Covid is here for the next 10+ years. From October onwards things will be about as good as it gets. Australians will eventually get over it unless they want to live in a life of perpetual lockdowns and restrictions.

With most of those most at risk of serious complications / death vaccinated - ie the elderly, why wouldn’t we be ok to open up? This notion of zero risk or no cases is ridiculous at best. With sufficient numbers vaccinated CV will be no worse in practice than the common cold. That’s what the data from UK / Israel is showing.

Time to stop being alarmist and go back to being pramatic.

I think you are right Fujiroll76 - things will be busier than most expect - don’t be afraid to be optimistic.

Too early to call. Need to come back mid year to see what state the world and vaccine effectiveness is in.

I understand Alan’s eagerness, his cash burn on that half of the business is ugly, needs to push the agenda to get his operation moving. Virgin does not have any cash burn on that side of the business anymore.

What’s the priority here, Qantas’ balance sheet or International border outbreaks?

The Population of this land doesn’t give two ****s about his financials. The Feds will also take a cautious approach, with recent drama’s in Canberra and a upcoming election, slow and steady approach will be the answer.

Good luck with that.
Anybody that is ‘confirming’ anything at this point is seriously deluded.
IATA originally forecast 50% of 2019 demand by year end.
As of their most recent prediction, taking into account variants, it’s now as low as 13% .
Not too sure anybody is going to be flying around empty planes just so they can quote 100% capacity.

Totally agree, problem is that no politician would put his or her own ass on the line if public sentiment shows that people are still scared of this very contagious form of flu (regardless of the impact to society or the economy).

The amount of healthy and the least at risk individuals scaremongering about COVID will slow recovery, regardless of vaccination progress.

Don't forget that protection from C-19 after having the vaccine administered only lasts for a few months, and vaccination rollout to the masses has been observed to be very difficult and slow, it's not really working properly at the scale needed to quash a virus.

Unless C-19 fizzles out by mutating into something less fatal, this virus will be with us for a while until such a time we eventually develop an easier self administered solution than a vaccine, and preferably not by dumping something in the water supply.

I can't see international flights resuming for while, there is too much hype and paranoia already invested in keeping us grounded.

I may invest in a boat instead - and call her Endeavour.

There's generally cause for optimism just as there's generally cause for pessimism when looking at the same circumstance - it depends on your perspective and appetite for risk.

We're about to see a preview of how robust any meaningful recovery is likely to be courtesy of the 'Trans-Tasman Bubble' - an extraordinarily poor but perhaps prescient choice of words to be sure, bubbles being fragile things needing only one prick to burst them. Any old how, semantics aside, if the Trans-Tasman quarantine-free travel zone holds up then you can probably start charting a path back to something vaguely approaching 2019 levels over the next 9-12 months.

Not sure what you’re reading but the data coming out of places with vaccinations rolling out would suggest the exact opposite.

UK and Israel scientists saying initial thoughts of having to have boosters every 12 months or so was wrong and that it looks like one off vaccine will do the trick. Not only is it preventing disease for those vaccinated, but it looks like it prevents the spread as well.

ScepticalOptomist, all I know is that little is still known about C-19. I asked the question if someone who has been vaccinated can contract the virus - the answer I got was yes but symptoms will be less severe in most cases. Then I asked if someone who has been vaccinated and contracts the virus and is asymptomatic can spread the virus - the answer I got was we don't know for sure, but most likely yes.

Unfortunately I don't believe the politicians will ever open up the borders. They can't tolerate a single case of covid in the community. Quarantine is here to stay. Australians will be banned from free travel for years to come. Best hope is to have pacific Island and kiwi bubble.
Get used to it...vaccine is false hope. Does anyone really think the vast majority of the population will get vaccinated.

There’s no doubt in my mind that come Nov the borders will open. Whether that comes with 14 days quarantine is yet to be seen.

The government won’t waste a good opening before xmas and the influx of passengers that come with it.

The US will hit heard immunity by August and the UK by June. The two big markets of the Qantas Network.

IATA’s 13% doesn’t relate to where Qantas will be. It’s an overall expectation which will have a bigger impact on the larger airlines. 40% seems reasonable for QF.

One can only hope the SO positions when available go to internal applicants , would live together out of my other QF group job especially for same pay and blue sky from then on .

If Alan continues to insist on mandatory vaccination to fly QF then this may prove to be problematic for him.

Give it a rest. About 80% of Australians have indicated they will be getting the vaccine with only 9% saying they definitely won’t. I hardly think mandatory vaccines to travel internationally will have an impact on demand. Plus the types of people who don’t believe in science don’t tend to travel much anyway.

Not sure where you got 12%. I count 109 pilots aged 60 or above as at 31 Mar 2021. 2027 pilots are currently on the seniority list. That's closer to 5%.

There are a couple of pinch points coming. First is the lack of A330 Captains when ramping that fleet up. They will need to come from somewhere and I suspect part of the reason why 737 training has recommenced. A 747 RIN won't even touch the sides of addressing the 56 A330 Captains that left with VR/ER.

The next pinch point is the A380. If it returns then I suspect 7-8 aeroplanes worth of flying (and probably 9 jets to allow a spare given they're fully written down). If it doesn't come back until November 2023 they are going to need 30-40 Captains trained on that fleet at roughly the same time as the A350 may be coming down range requiring crew to be trained. That results in a scenario where you are training people onto the A330 to release 30 Captains to the A330 as well as trying to train another 30 Captains on top to release A330 Captains for A350 training- at least in the initial stages. If they bring the A380 back prior to November 2023 (which I reckon will occur more towards the end of next year.... though hopefully closer to mid next year) then that certainly decreases that training pinch at the end of 2023.

The other question is A380 crew. If that aeroplane is coming back before the end of 2022 you wouldn't bother sending any crew across to the A330. If it's not coming back until November 2023 you may decide to bring a bunch of A380 pilots to the A330 for 18 months from Feb next year. This won't start to become more clear until later this year when we start to hear about future quarantine requirements post vaccine roll out.

There may also be a few more 787s somewhere in that mix too.

So whilst I don't see the need for recruiting this year, from the middle of 2022 onward and through to when the A350 is introduced could be quite busy for training on all fleets.

You bet! Certainly light at the end of the tunnel. I don't think it's an oncoming train but we won't be sure of that for a while yet.

I'm starting to see 'shaping' discussions around this point. Certainly the questions of how Australia should respond to a less deadly Covid (if vaccinated) are starting to be asked by business leaders and some politicians.

Yes, I do. If they ever want to leave Australia shores they will. People get vaccinated for yellow fever if they want to travel for Africa, they'll certainly get vaccinated for Covid if they want to go to (or come home from) Bali/ Viet Nam/ the USA/ Europe, etc.

I stand corrected. Was looking at the old list 😑


The next 12 months are pivotal in how QF recover from this. Also worth remembering how the world was 12 months ago to where we are today.

There’s certainly a bright light ahead.

The real question is not where they end up going, so much as when do they get paid again?

The company seems to be linking the fate of the crew to the fate of the aeroplane, which you have quite rightly separated. The real test will be when borders reopen and they keep the A380 grounded.

you might find that training start dates were given to those crew with deferred slots on the 737 as a certain LH captain wanted all slots thrown back into the mix for the senior crew to nab. By doing it now I’m told it avoids the need for agreement to defer again.happy to be corrected but given the person involved it would t be surprising at all.

goodonyamate, I suspect that was considered more an ‘added bonus’ rather than primary reason.

Why is there any SH training at all? As it stands there are currently crew stood down in Syd and Mel, and quite few still below MGH. The threshold for training in the EA has not been met. What deal has AIPA done and why have they not consulted with the SH members prior to varying the EA? Have they agreed to train into the future and keep the SH crew at MGH? The new AIPA has been less than transparent.

You literally have no clue.

February 2020 - 1800 domestic flights / day
this bottomed out at 220

Fast forward to last week - The domestic market saw 1500 flights.

Fair to say it’s recovering nicely. International will be the same albeit at a slower rate.

Australia will open to UK and USA by November. Quarantine requirements are still to be seen. With both countries well over 80% vaccinated by then, why shouldn’t there be quarantine free travel??

Maybe you didn’t pay your $20 / month 😂

incredible...that’s for another day

Flew probably 12 Syd-Mel sectors in the last week. Half full and not sustainable. They recovery is thin at best.

Fully paid and member 25years. Answer the question, or are you a no nothing ******.

If you’re a member then why don’t you ask AIPA instead of here? 🤷🏼

Surely after 25 years you would know how to consult a union on any EA breaches.

I would be looking at the data from Bitre , the pax carried , not sure how the number of aircraft taking off has anything to do with
pax numbers

Think Jan/Feb 2021 will be 20 to 25% , tops 30% of 2019

We have a long way to go with domestic, lots of Aussie CEOs are saying they pretty much have a no travel policy atm

"It's been confirmed October ramp up will be 40%" - you better get QF to instruct PM & Murphy how & when international travel is going to work
Must be some law I haven't heard of that declares QF execs as final arbiters re: opening international borders after a pandemic

Why oh why do we have this relentless blow hard / boasting stuff from QF execs ? (back to 80% domestic by July 2020 etc etc etc)

Surely the ignore reality approach creates unrealistic expectations from staff & then subsequent disappointment

Did AIPA provide any information about the decision to resume training?

All 737 crew are stood up from 29 March. I’m not sure the planned hours but I think it’s forecast to exceed MGH and increase on top of that in the coming months. 737 hours are forecast to exceed pre Covid levels before the end of this year. (Whether or not this occurs is another thing depending on what happens with borders/ vaccines/ etc).

Qantas decided on their own to start these courses and AIPA has done no ‘deal’ regarding them. Given that there is no variation to the SHEA (not that a variation can occur without members voting on it anyway..... which I’m sure every mainline pilot knows by now) I’m not sure what consultation you expect to have taken place? If you’re concerned about what the company has done email the COM and voice your concerns. Ranting on PPRUNE about a SHEA variation that doesn’t exist certainly isn’t going to achieve anything.

What was the load factor on those flights? If you don't know then you have no clue. Flying around empty airplanes isn't a recovery.

As for quarantine free travel, politicians do what keeps them getting re elected, not what is best for the country.

As someone looking from afar, how does this route sustain so many flights? Surely having 50% LFs are not unusual?

I’m not sure of how the training is happening. However if training early is the only way to stop those slots being thrown back for bidding, and it gets people who actually wanted to be on the 737 back to work, rather than allowing the super senior who will just go back to the 380 when it comes back anyway come across, I’m happy with that. It’s another handful of people working who would otherwise be stood down.

Mate, the slots were originally advertised at a time when divisors on the 73 triggered training, in accordance with the Award.

These same slots were deferred 12 months, which was approved by AIPA (in 2020), in accordance with the Award.

Can you show me where is says that divisors have to REMAIN above the trigger in order to continue training people? I can’t find it.

How do you feel left out by AIPA?

Training is happening because of forward projection of flying, with a net increase of 737 hours (from pre- COVID) of over 10% after July- it's only a forecast, grain of salt, nobody knows, blah blah..
There is training now even thought he long term trigger (is 68hrs? or 73?) has not been met, because there is nothing written in EBA8 as that being a requirement, therefore it it the Company's interpretation...so those with an allocated slot or those who were already training when it stopped will be recommencing on Monday (good luck all!).
All 737 are stood up for BP 3415....Rosters are out in the next two days, Slack is saying about 62-64 as divisor.
.....As for the above statement about Load Factors..depends which sector. I flew some CNS & BNE sectors last week- they were ALL over 80%, so much so that the A330 is slated for CNS flying next BP. Have a look at FIDS. Melbourne and Perth are soft, people have low risk tolerance now, and don't want 14 days isolation at minimal notice.

I am going to say this again, there is many people on this RUMOUR network who hate QF, who have zero idea about our EA's or IR. If you don't know, don't come here looking for answers- ring your Base Manager, ring AIPA, ring a mate on the COM (or not), before you read the BS here.

It’s in the integration award, not the EA.


here is what it says:
9 - INCREASE IN SHORT HAUL PILOT ESTABLISHMENT
In deciding whether an increased establishment of pilots on short haul aircraft is necessary, the determinant factor will be a divisor of not less than 73 pay hours per month taken on average over a projected period of one year, with due allowance for leave.

Telfer just wants to spout his incessant negativity. His predictions of mass sackings amongst crew are looking more and more foolish by the day, so now he is making up stats about the flying that is happening.

As this discussion largely revolves around the pilots getting back to work (or even being recruited), then pax stats are NOT the important issue. The number of flights and stood up crew is the determining factor and they are looking great for 737 crew and for those soon to start 737 training.

Qantas used to make half a billion dollars profit flying domestically with ~80% load factor. Is it hard to believe they would cover their costs flying at 50%? This gets people back to work, protects/grows market share and offsets aircraft fixed costs.

Things are looking up at long last, some just can’t bare to admit it.

As per the town hall this morning. Load factors are considerably high with Jetstar in the mid 80’s.

it’s been said before, any route will be flown if it makes a $1. A half full SY-ML must tick that.

Alan also wants 70%.

He will not sit back and let the others take share.

He will throw capacity at it. Just as VA will do with additional 73’s.

Good for jobs all round!