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Qantas...Post COVID

Old 22nd Mar 2021, 22:35
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Qantas...Post COVID

Itís been confirmed that the Oct 2021 ramp up will include 40% of pre COVID levels, increasing to 70% in the following 12 months to Oct 2022. This indicates the 787/330 will be at 100% capacity with the remaining 30% set aside for the potential 380 return 12 months later (Nov 2023)

insert a 20% reduction in flight crew who took VR / ER who wonít be returning.
insert the LH crew who are starting to transition to SH as of next BP

Is it just me or should some serious recruitment, be at the very least being discussed at the round table...
12% of the list are greater than 60 years as it stands today..most are unlikely to be around come 350 ULR ops.

Theres cause for optimism.
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Old 22nd Mar 2021, 22:53
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I would like to share your enthusiasm but I doubt Australians would be ok with people coming into Australia without quarantine regardless of a negative CoVID test.

Even with the vaccine, some people will refuse to take it and you will still get very small outbreaks in the community. People will still get sick and some will dye.
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Old 22nd Mar 2021, 23:08
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Yes but Covid is here for the next 10+ years. From October onwards things will be about as good as it gets. Australians will eventually get over it unless they want to live in a life of perpetual lockdowns and restrictions.
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Old 22nd Mar 2021, 23:27
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Originally Posted by Climb150 View Post
I would like to share your enthusiasm but I doubt Australians would be ok with people coming into Australia without quarantine regardless of a negative CoVID test.

Even with the vaccine, some people will refuse to take it and you will still get very small outbreaks in the community. People will still get sick and some will dye.
With most of those most at risk of serious complications / death vaccinated - ie the elderly, why wouldn’t we be ok to open up? This notion of zero risk or no cases is ridiculous at best. With sufficient numbers vaccinated CV will be no worse in practice than the common cold. That’s what the data from UK / Israel is showing.

Time to stop being alarmist and go back to being pramatic.

I think you are right Fujiroll76 - things will be busier than most expect - don’t be afraid to be optimistic.
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Old 22nd Mar 2021, 23:58
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Too early to call. Need to come back mid year to see what state the world and vaccine effectiveness is in.

I understand Alanís eagerness, his cash burn on that half of the business is ugly, needs to push the agenda to get his operation moving. Virgin does not have any cash burn on that side of the business anymore.

Whatís the priority here, Qantasí balance sheet or International border outbreaks?

The Population of this land doesnít give two shits about his financials. The Feds will also take a cautious approach, with recent dramaís in Canberra and a upcoming election, slow and steady approach will be the answer.


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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 00:17
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Originally Posted by Fujiroll76 View Post
Itís been confirmed that the Oct 2021 ramp up will include 40% of pre COVID levels, increasing to 70% in the following 12 months to Oct 2022. This indicates the 787/330 will be at 100% capacity with the remaining 30% set aside for the potential 380 return 12 months later (Nov 2023)

insert a 20% reduction in flight crew who took VR / ER who wonít be returning.
insert the LH crew who are starting to transition to SH as of next BP

Is it just me or should some serious recruitment, be at the very least being discussed at the round table...
12% of the list are greater than 60 years as it stands today..most are unlikely to be around come 350 ULR ops.

Theres cause for optimism.
Good luck with that.
Anybody that is Ďconfirmingí anything at this point is seriously deluded.
IATA originally forecast 50% of 2019 demand by year end.
As of their most recent prediction, taking into account variants, itís now as low as 13% .
Not too sure anybody is going to be flying around empty planes just so they can quote 100% capacity.
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 01:22
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Originally Posted by ScepticalOptomist View Post
With most of those most at risk of serious complications / death vaccinated - ie the elderly, why wouldnít we be ok to open up? This notion of zero risk or no cases is ridiculous at best. With sufficient numbers vaccinated CV will be no worse in practice than the common cold. Thatís what the data from UK / Israel is showing.

Time to stop being alarmist and go back to being pramatic.

I think you are right Fujiroll76 - things will be busier than most expect - donít be afraid to be optimistic.

Totally agree, problem is that no politician would put his or her own ass on the line if public sentiment shows that people are still scared of this very contagious form of flu (regardless of the impact to society or the economy).

The amount of healthy and the least at risk individuals scaremongering about COVID will slow recovery, regardless of vaccination progress.
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 01:48
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Don't forget that protection from C-19 after having the vaccine administered only lasts for a few months, and vaccination rollout to the masses has been observed to be very difficult and slow, it's not really working properly at the scale needed to quash a virus.

Unless C-19 fizzles out by mutating into something less fatal, this virus will be with us for a while until such a time we eventually develop an easier self administered solution than a vaccine, and preferably not by dumping something in the water supply.

I can't see international flights resuming for while, there is too much hype and paranoia already invested in keeping us grounded.

I may invest in a boat instead - and call her Endeavour.
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 01:52
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Originally Posted by Fujiroll76 View Post
Itís been confirmed that the Oct 2021 ramp up will include 40% of pre COVID levels, increasing to 70% in the following 12 months to Oct 2022. This indicates the 787/330 will be at 100% capacity with the remaining 30% set aside for the potential 380 return 12 months later (Nov 2023)

insert a 20% reduction in flight crew who took VR / ER who wonít be returning.
insert the LH crew who are starting to transition to SH as of next BP

Is it just me or should some serious recruitment, be at the very least being discussed at the round table...
12% of the list are greater than 60 years as it stands today..most are unlikely to be around come 350 ULR ops.

Theres cause for optimism.
There's generally cause for optimism just as there's generally cause for pessimism when looking at the same circumstance - it depends on your perspective and appetite for risk.

We're about to see a preview of how robust any meaningful recovery is likely to be courtesy of the 'Trans-Tasman Bubble' - an extraordinarily poor but perhaps prescient choice of words to be sure, bubbles being fragile things needing only one prick to burst them. Any old how, semantics aside, if the Trans-Tasman quarantine-free travel zone holds up then you can probably start charting a path back to something vaguely approaching 2019 levels over the next 9-12 months.
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 02:14
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Originally Posted by cattletruck View Post
Don't forget that protection from C-19 after having the vaccine administered only lasts for a few months, and vaccination rollout to the masses has been observed to be very difficult and slow, it's not really working properly at the scale needed to quash a virus.
Not sure what youíre reading but the data coming out of places with vaccinations rolling out would suggest the exact opposite.

UK and Israel scientists saying initial thoughts of having to have boosters every 12 months or so was wrong and that it looks like one off vaccine will do the trick. Not only is it preventing disease for those vaccinated, but it looks like it prevents the spread as well.

Last edited by ScepticalOptomist; 23rd Mar 2021 at 02:42.
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 04:06
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ScepticalOptomist, all I know is that little is still known about C-19. I asked the question if someone who has been vaccinated can contract the virus - the answer I got was yes but symptoms will be less severe in most cases. Then I asked if someone who has been vaccinated and contracts the virus and is asymptomatic can spread the virus - the answer I got was we don't know for sure, but most likely yes.
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 04:34
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Unfortunately I don't believe the politicians will ever open up the borders. They can't tolerate a single case of covid in the community. Quarantine is here to stay. Australians will be banned from free travel for years to come. Best hope is to have pacific Island and kiwi bubble.
Get used to it...vaccine is false hope. Does anyone really think the vast majority of the population will get vaccinated.
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 04:43
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Thereís no doubt in my mind that come Nov the borders will open. Whether that comes with 14 days quarantine is yet to be seen.

The government wonít waste a good opening before xmas and the influx of passengers that come with it.

The US will hit heard immunity by August and the UK by June. The two big markets of the Qantas Network.

IATAís 13% doesnít relate to where Qantas will be. Itís an overall expectation which will have a bigger impact on the larger airlines. 40% seems reasonable for QF.
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 04:49
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One can only hope the SO positions when available go to internal applicants , would live together out of my other QF group job especially for same pay and blue sky from then on .
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 04:55
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Get used to it...vaccine is false hope. Does anyone really think the vast majority of the population will get vaccinated.
If Alan continues to insist on mandatory vaccination to fly QF then this may prove to be problematic for him.
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 05:10
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Originally Posted by Chairmans Lounge View Post
If Alan continues to insist on mandatory vaccination to fly QF then this may prove to be problematic for him.
Give it a rest. About 80% of Australians have indicated they will be getting the vaccine with only 9% saying they definitely wonít. I hardly think mandatory vaccines to travel internationally will have an impact on demand. Plus the types of people who donít believe in science donít tend to travel much anyway.
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 05:39
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Originally Posted by Fujiroll76 View Post
Is it just me or should some serious recruitment, be at the very least being discussed at the round table...

12% of the list are greater than 60 years as it stands today..most are unlikely to be around come 350 ULR ops.
Not sure where you got 12%. I count 109 pilots aged 60 or above as at 31 Mar 2021. 2027 pilots are currently on the seniority list. That's closer to 5%.

There are a couple of pinch points coming. First is the lack of A330 Captains when ramping that fleet up. They will need to come from somewhere and I suspect part of the reason why 737 training has recommenced. A 747 RIN won't even touch the sides of addressing the 56 A330 Captains that left with VR/ER.

The next pinch point is the A380. If it returns then I suspect 7-8 aeroplanes worth of flying (and probably 9 jets to allow a spare given they're fully written down). If it doesn't come back until November 2023 they are going to need 30-40 Captains trained on that fleet at roughly the same time as the A350 may be coming down range requiring crew to be trained. That results in a scenario where you are training people onto the A330 to release 30 Captains to the A330 as well as trying to train another 30 Captains on top to release A330 Captains for A350 training- at least in the initial stages. If they bring the A380 back prior to November 2023 (which I reckon will occur more towards the end of next year.... though hopefully closer to mid next year) then that certainly decreases that training pinch at the end of 2023.

The other question is A380 crew. If that aeroplane is coming back before the end of 2022 you wouldn't bother sending any crew across to the A330. If it's not coming back until November 2023 you may decide to bring a bunch of A380 pilots to the A330 for 18 months from Feb next year. This won't start to become more clear until later this year when we start to hear about future quarantine requirements post vaccine roll out.

There may also be a few more 787s somewhere in that mix too.

So whilst I don't see the need for recruiting this year, from the middle of 2022 onward and through to when the A350 is introduced could be quite busy for training on all fleets.

Originally Posted by Fujiroll76 View Post
Theres cause for optimism.
You bet! Certainly light at the end of the tunnel. I don't think it's an oncoming train but we won't be sure of that for a while yet.
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 05:43
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Originally Posted by halfmoon View Post
Unfortunately I don't believe the politicians will ever open up the borders. They can't tolerate a single case of covid in the community.
I'm starting to see 'shaping' discussions around this point. Certainly the questions of how Australia should respond to a less deadly Covid (if vaccinated) are starting to be asked by business leaders and some politicians.

Originally Posted by halfmoon View Post
Does anyone really think the vast majority of the population will get vaccinated.
Yes, I do. If they ever want to leave Australia shores they will. People get vaccinated for yellow fever if they want to travel for Africa, they'll certainly get vaccinated for Covid if they want to go to (or come home from) Bali/ Viet Nam/ the USA/ Europe, etc.
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 06:13
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Originally Posted by Keg View Post
Not sure where you got 12%. I count 109 pilots aged 60 or above as at 31 Mar 2021. 2027 pilots are currently on the seniority list. That's closer to 5%.

.

I stand corrected. Was looking at the old list 😑


The next 12 months are pivotal in how QF recover from this. Also worth remembering how the world was 12 months ago to where we are today.

Thereís certainly a bright light ahead.
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 06:38
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Originally Posted by Keg View Post
The other question is A380 crew.
The real question is not where they end up going, so much as when do they get paid again?

The company seems to be linking the fate of the crew to the fate of the aeroplane, which you have quite rightly separated. The real test will be when borders reopen and they keep the A380 grounded.
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