Further capacity at this point only further dilutes yields (particularly with a lack corporate demand at the moment) and is certainly not sustainable. The grab at market share will end with a casualty.

Probably. Of Qantas, Rex, Virgin and Jetstar who are you putting your money on it to be?

I think VA’s mouth is writing cheques its fleet can’t cash and Rex plans to bring a knife to a gunfight.

But Rex is using a plastic knife that you get in kiddie pirate costumes.

I think we just want as much care as possible when borders open again,everybody wants to see money being spent by tourists & as many people back at work as possible.
The anti-vaccers will always be around,they are anti everything(most of them anyway) so in reality not much notice will be taken of them.
As i see it,as long as the majority are aware of what is required to keep us all safe,the rest shpuld fall into place.

The govt will run focus groups to decide which decision gets them another term in office. That is the path they will take.

The signs elsewhere are slowly showing positives also...


https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/202...ed-get-flight/

To early to call “the weakest link”.

But given how the last capacity war ended, I’d say it might also comes down to who blinks first....

If QF have taken on a lot of debt through COVID and then lose money again, they’ll have to call it quits on the “line in the sand” eventually (but they’re still stronger than Rex/VA).

If VA are aggressive and Bain etc want see results that convince them to tip in more cash, they might end up back in a sustainable position. But last time around, they ran out of cash before QF.

Rex are the more unknown IMHO. They have a decent war chest for now and (arguably) lower costs (wages and lease fees) for their small fleet. They also have a large regional network to generate cash to help with the current aggressive expansion. Buuuuuuttt, how long will their cash last and will the new investors (PAG) be willing to put more in?

Expansion you mean the 737? Didn't Sharpie say somewhere that the regional and jet are completely separate entity's? wouldn't want to raise eyebrows given all the government handouts they received which was more than QF and VA got to keep the turbo prop operation viable.

The predatory Sydney Canberra flights they plan to launch with their SAABs is laughable, this route is mostly business and politicians which neither will never travel on a SAAB unless they're going to Bourke and the RAAF jets are all broken.

I think there are good signs for A380 crew too?

If the 787/A330 flying comes back as suggested then there will have to be more training. That would mean advertised slots. That would indicate useful work? A380 crew could bid for them, even Captains could use their golden bid to bid back at the company’s discretion. Most would have the seniority to be awarded a slot.

If the company refuse then how can the company argue ‘no useful work’ and continue to stand A380 down?

Will an A380 pilot want to burn a ‘bid back’ to get back to flying 12 months earlier? The consequence is they can’t return to the A380 and may not be able to use their bid back on the 737 approaching 65.

It’s a personal thing I suppose?

If they can last another two years on Annual leave then that’s great!

I’d say most would burn it in a heartbeat!

There is no way International flights (above current repatriation flight) will be ramping up in October. This was all predicated on having the vaccine rollout completed by end October. The vaccine rollout is proving a dismal failure (already 3.4m doses behind planned) and the latest blood clot scare campaign will put things behind even more. More and more people will wait for the Pfizer or Moderna of which Australia cannot get anywhere near enough, probably for years. I think there will be millions of doses of Astrazeneca left on the shelves, with millions content forgo the vaccine and just keep international borders shut.

For states like WA, they'll be lucky to have free international travel before 2023.

My best guess is that by October, we might have a fairly reliable Tasman bubble at best and hopefully more sensible state border controls.

Raises the point - can 'militant' states like WA go against the Commonwealth in the opening of their federal border? Eg Commonwealth removes restrictions on international travel, can WA refuse to allow entry into PER via that route?

Confirmed where and by whom? If you're talking about anything Qantas has officially announced, October 2021 sees the nomination and very subject-to-reality return of almost all international flights bar some cities and bar the A380s, which would seem to represent more than 40% of capacity, or are you talking about estimated demand, ie not the number of seats flying but the number of bums on seats?

Andrew David a few town halls ago. This is the realistic schedule come October. Ie services flown not capacity expected.

I think that the public and their politicians will now only accept a zero covid risk. Unless the Federal government steps in with a compulsory vaccination program, 14 day quarantines are going to be with us for a very long time. If there isn’t a very high proportion of vaccinated population then we will continue to have sporadic cases and sporadic shutdowns and lock-outs. That will kill any demand for much flying across any borders, domestic included.

What colour do you think they will dye????

Yes. s92 of the Constitution guarantees free trade and freedom of movement between the States - however, the same provision exists in the United States' Constitution on which ours is heavily based (because there were no other notionally English speaking federations around at the time except the USA) as does another provision taken from the US Constitution, that being that the Commonwealth shall ensure that every State gives "full faith and credit" to the laws, acts and regulations and public records of every other State".

I believe the 'full faith and credit' clause (s118) as it is called, means that every other State and the Commonwealth must accept and give full faith and credit to acts, laws and regulations that a State adopts in the interests, in this case, of public health which is well within the purview of State powers.

This is why Clive was never going to win his stupid case, because if WA passed a law imposing a tariff on movement of persons and goods into WA, then that would be a clear breach of s92 and unconstitutional because trade and commerce is not a State power as the Constitution bars any interference with it. BUT, s118 is what allows the State(s) to impose entry restrictions based on laws and regulations that they have the Constitutional power to enact and enforce.

Long explanation I know but that's my understanding of why the States can continue to impose these restrictions.

*EDIT*

I just re-read your question - interesting - but I think the answer is still yes. WA refused to let a ship dock at Fremantle at the beginning of the crisis. I believe refusal of landing would come within the State's rights - it is probably one for a constitutional expert though because external affairs is a Commonwealth responsibility which I would suggest includes the regulation of shipping etc (as aviation in the sense of powered flight didn't exist when the constitution was written). The Commonwealth has the power to regulate and make laws for emigration, immigration and - I think it actually says - "the naturalisation of aliens". But I would think that just means they can make laws for it - it doesn't mean they can force a State to accept a vessel if they don't want to - just as they can't force WA, SA and Queensland to all adopt Standard Gauge for all their railways.

Big words from the little 'been everywhere' man.
Did he thank everybody before he spoke🤭

Agreed.

After listening to a number of webinars, it’s clear that this situation is taking a considerable mental toll on some. :(

Thanks!
That’s a very good question.
Number one on slido!

Whatever the technical and legal answer may be, the "practical" answer is Yes.

"All persons entering WA must quarantine at an approved facility, currently the only approved facility is at Ginbata Airport GBW / YGIA."

Followed by....

"Persons must pay the cost of 14 days tent quarantine, currently at $1,000 / day."

And if airlines didn't get the hint.......

"This also applies to all airline crew but due to the additional risk all airline crew must quarantine for 28 days"

As my Papa says, "There's more than one way to skin a cat".

TTS

Was up at Tamworth and the talk is that they are bringing in overseas ( Asian ) pilots as FOs on the Dash using 457 visas.
I was working as a builders labourer ( gratis ) during the full lockdowns for my son in laws new house build and the other builders labourer was an Emirates 380 FO. He was a very hard worker and I am sure would have taken any aviation job going after his Emirates stand down.

In regards to bringing in 457 visas but I’m sorry what a load of crap.

There is absolutely no talk of that happening. Recruitment is planned for later this year and most likely will be to fill in MEL and SYD spots initially.

There are plenty of locals who would be more than suitable. QLink will also most likely issue an internal EOI first, just like NJS and Network have done.

There is also bound to be a few cadets from the QFPP academy who are due to finish soon and those who have made it through the selection process could possibly be offered a spot.

An EOI for dash spots in ML and SY has already gone out to Jetstar Wide-body pilots.

Don't totally understand, are you saying that will not happen?

Correct...that will not happen.

Rumours circulating that an EOI is imminent for 787 & 330 SO’s to return from LWOP early.

747 RIN completed with ground schools scheduled for next month.

All who took LWOP will be offered to return prior to end of year.

With a mix of repat and potential travel bubbles, all are required to meet the demand

Release from Qantas this morning.

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/ap...jW6FG0Biigg3B3

Things are looking better every day.

Stay positive folks - don’t let the negative Nancy’s on here stifle your optimism.

edit: link changed - https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/me...gathers-speed/

This is what that URL is giving me{
"error": {
"code": "401",
"message": "Invalid access token"
}
}

Is this what your link is supposed to give:

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/me...gathers-speed/

sorry about that.

try this

QANTAS GROUP RECOVERY GATHERS SPEED
• Group Domestic capacity increasing beyond previous estimates to reach 90 per cent of pre-COVID levels in Q4 FY21; Jetstar to exceed 100 per cent due to strong leisure demand.
• All Qantas and Jetstar domestic crew now back at work.
• Recovery strategy puts short term focus on cash positive flying over profit margins – meaning more low
fares to help drive demand.
• Continuing to target resumption of rest of international network from late October; continued flexibility
for customers.
• Premium international lounges in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane to reopen.
• New deal signed with Accor

https://investor.qantas.com/Download...5/02363725.pdf

And yet:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/austra...morrison-warns

I think the point that ScoMo is trying to make, is that even with 1000 cases a week, it will result in minimal deaths, assuming the vulnerable are vaccinated.

We need the media to report deaths or serious illness, not cases. Zero cases forever is fantasy land!

I don’t think it refers to deaths at all.......but draw your own conclusions!

And further to this, what he is trying to say is that we can’t have those case numbers if State Premiers continue carrying on and locking borders at the sound of someone sneezing.

Common sense would say if your most vulnerable are vaccinated, and state premiers agree not to close borders when cases emerge, then you can open up flying from International destinations in a controlled way (ie from permitted countries and to those who have been vaccinated).

But common sense ain’t all that common amongst our so called political ‘leaders’.

VIC, NSW and QLD will not be open if there is so called ‘thousands’ of cases a week.

Pipe dream.