But that didn’t stop one airline announcing yesterday that based on the information they’ve received in negotiations with all governments and their future plans that they are comfortable in a few months to stand up all crew as they expect they’ll all be needed by then.

Dre: except international crews in states that are subject to self isolation, unless the crew member agrees. That is in the Q&A. Perth longhaul crews are still stuffed for the time being.

International flying will probably take a few extra months to come back to normal, I was more thinking of domestic restrictions. You need a lot more CC to operate widebodies than narrowbodies so if if all domestic CC are stood up they would expect a return of most widebodies on domestic routes, mainly transcon, and therefore are happy with the behind the scenes information they’ve received with the border situation to have those available crew stood up in a few months. Because I don’t think they would hesitate to continue to keep those crew stood down if they thought they wouldn’t need them for many months ahead.

Not sure why anyone really cares about WA borders. The flying is marginal profits, QF has already organised re-routing for international. At the end of the day the state can do what it wants, the population there supports it, so yelling at them to open up is like screaming at China to comply with something. They won't and will probably stay closed longer in spite of being told what to do.

In other news, does anyone else find it convenient that an anti-vax group specifically targeting Michael Gunner in the NT appeared a day or two after his smack down of Ted Cruz. Shouting his address and suggesting action be taken against him and his family. It reeks of another countries method of politics being wielded here.

He wont call a campaign over xmas. He will either call it when he get back from glasgow where he can bask in the glory of his carbon zero policy and hopefully a successful reopening, but not have to worry about yet about the nats going crazy about the carbon zero. Or it will be late Jan or early Feb for march. He might go real hardcore and not call it so we have just the senate and the later the HOR. Split senate and HOR is my bet on whats going to happen

During the last mining boom it was the “marginal profits” of trans continental and intra WA that funded the ridiculous capacity war on the east coast, a senior executive told me of his frustration watching massive profits from WA being eaten away by empty flights every 15mins between Sydney and Melbourne.

Throughout COVID, it has been WA that has provided a reliable steady income for airlines.

With no domestic competition to the QF wide body product, the trans continental market is a sitting gold mine of profit. As soon as the WA border opens, those cashed up bogans will pack business class on these flights.

McGowan is an idiot, but airlines aren’t about to cut off their nose to spite their face with him. As soon as they can, they’ll jump heavily back into that market, coast to coast flying has always been a solid money spinner.

Perth runs make some profit and mostly for QF in the business class area. Until the early 2000s Perth was a backwater with few flights that cost a fortune under the duopoly. Virgin tried at wide-bodies and struggled to make anything of it, it was fairly well known they were breaking even at best on the route with those and the 737 fleet was doing the hard yards. I flew with both QF and VA on the A330 and 767 products regularly, there was always an empty row of seats I could stretch out on for the last 10 years some flights being 1/3rd full. The 737/A320 flights were always full and uncomfortable. Ticket prices were nothing compared to the AN days being 1/4 of the actual prices they charged back then, not even adjusted for inflation.

Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane merry go round is the money spinner, and if you are not cashing in on that, you wont be around long.

The Perth long haul crew that are stood down with very limited flying forecast over the next 4-6 months probably care I’d say

I sympathies with them, however would it really help them that much to open WA borders. Seriously transcontinent is done by domestic 737, so opening up the east to west really does not do much for them. You want international travel to the US and Europe and Asia for them to have proper work return. I mean its talked about like Perth is the center of QFs, network, when in reality we all know that Sydney, Sydney South (Melbourne) and Sydney North (Brisbane and Cairns) are the bulk of their services.

Hear hear. It's very tedious reading all the bile and hatred.

And PER-LHR was quite profitable too, a monopoly on the route will ensure that, they want more flights on that route, and that’s why they’ll restart it in April as announced.

Yeah sure you enjoy the benefits of cheap interstate and foreign labour. Ultimately the government can't afford not to open the border. Things will just stop happening as there will be no one to do it. The airlines know this they will just bide their time eventually probably cutting off WA when the free money from Canberra stop flowing. Just maybe the locals need to learn the hard way you need the rest of the country to actually survive, as unpalatable that might be.

If Mc Gowan really screws it up he will have a Hospital Crisis with people dying in the street because there is not enough staff. Let's all hope he isn't so stupid to get to that point.

Again Neville. Why do you care?
If everything comes to a grinding halt because we can’t possibly survive without all you wise men from the east, we will sort it out when it happens. No need for you to worry.

Because ultimately we are one country as much you might hate to admit it might just be time to join the team

Not quite sure where this free money is coming from, oh that's right the gov is giving back WA citizens 40 cents in every dollar they pay in taxes.... The rest goes to subsidizing QLD, SA and the NT. Why QLD needs subsidising when they have wondrous COAL who knows... Oh that's right no one needs that stuff anymore so we sell it at close to cost to make it seem like there's an industry and take money from WAs profitable iron ore and gold production to prop up our economy.

SOPS

May I ask why you believe that those in this board critical of MM are from over east? Hint: they are not


Clare

Is it true you believe that only West Australians that support MM should be able to post on this board?

Yep. ...............

Pretty sure pre-COVID there were more A330’s doing coast to coast than 737’s, probably around 5 flights per day to each Sydney and Melbourne. Business class usually full and good coin with many on corporate policies like business class for flights over 3hrs. It wasn’t just full of FF upgrades.

Dont think anyone believes Perth is in any way the centre of QFs network, doesn’t mean it’s not important though. For the 330 based crew, coast to coast is their bread and butter. During the short period domestic was fully open earlier this year, all Perth crew who wanted to fly were stood up.

No doubt, but that comment was in regard to the long haul pilots having work, not domestic A330 crew, who would still be doing east coast runs as well.

With regard to A330 vs others that's now purely a QF consideration with no other airline operating the wide-bodies on that route so its all 737 and A320 traffic otherwise. In the days VA did it, there was a short run of good A330 coverage, but the last few years with yield management more and more 737 were being used to alleviate cost factor. Even in the US there is a move towards more cost effective large single aisle, with more A321 on order than ever, which shows they are over the issues the 757 was culled for, the expectation of long turn around times due to one aisle. QF is more unique, in that it has good corporate contracts so it can make profit on lower load factors due to its brand loyalty, something it's lived off for some time now.

True, however the only reason the Perth LH crews are going to stay stood down until the year 2325AD is due to one reason, and one reason only. McGowan's border bollocks. Were he to see sense and do as other states have done, then they'd likely be getting recurrent if not now, then in the very near future and flying again by Christmas.

Clearly not.

Rio Tinto lost $3.2B profit - not revenue - profit due to the labour shortage in their iron ore operation. Work out the lost royalties on that, the lost payroll tax, the lost income tax from employee bonus payments, etc. BHP would be similar, and they have just advertised for Drivers for their rail network for the third time this year because they have introduced a "Thou shall live in WA" clause to their selection criteria. And the fact BHP - who pay a bucketoad more $$ on a far better roster than most any other operator outside the Pilbara cannot get WA-based crew show that WA can't do the job. If they could, Rio & BHP wouldn't be out billions of dollars and neither they, nor the tourist operators would be crying about the labour shortage in the state.

But they are. Because WA cannot manage things themselves, no matter how much you would like to think you can. If you could - I wouldn't have had a job there for well over a decade!

No one's forcing you to read it.

But you know what I've noticed from reading it? It isn't really directed at Steve Marshall, or Peter Gutwein or Michael Gunner, nor has it ever been. It has been, almost without fail, directed at McGowan & Anna-Stayaway, because it has been their border polices that have caused so much heartache. Even now, McGowan is not following his own border policies. NSW is still classified as "Extreme Risk" - defined as an average caseload of 500/day on a 14day rolling average. NSW has been under that for days - since the 19th October when we went from 508/day to 483/day on a 14-day rolling average.

The other interesting tidbit about that is the ACT remains Medium Risk for the WA border bollocks and has been for yonks, IIRC. However, if you correct the ACT case numbers, for NSW's population (NSW having 18.9x the population of the ACT), you will find the ACT has been above 500/day on a 14 day average since the 4th October. But they remain "Medium risk", even though they have a higher percentage of cases. :ugh:

Who then in turn have members of their population serve in the ADF to live in and defend your state.

Not sure what you mean here. There is no such thing as ‘domestic A330 crew’ - all QF A330 crew are long haul, who sometimes fly domestic sectors.

Rio Tinto is a bad example of Covid problems, 1st half 2019 revenue $21.8 Billion vs 1st Half 2021 revenue of $33.1 Billion. The other indicators are even stronger, they doubled EBITDA and free cashflow over the same period. So whatever losses they claim to have made from covid are overshadowed by a MASSIVE increase in revenue and profitability. To be honest they are just looking for excuses as to why they can't continue 50% growth factors and anyone can see that next year will look bad even if they have 20% growth, "oh but it's half the growth of last year...."

I don't fly the A330 so I thought there was a domestic vs LH crew, my apologies. In any case I thought the 330s were still flying east coast and some WA as well, I was actually suprised to see them slinking around during lockdown.

All domestic CC are to be stood up from sometime in December, last time that happened was earlier in the year when borders were mostly open and the 330 was doing a substantial amount of transcons. As there hasn’t been any real loss of CC since then (the VR was done earlier) then it could be assumed that the same amount 330 flying would be done domestically from the start of next year too.

From the context, I assume you meant pilots - but if referring to cabin crew, you’d be quite right, both LH and SH operate on the 330 (and both LH & SH have been operating east coast to Perth).

Seems like there are plenty of people commenting on this thread who don’t understand the huge and direct impact that the WA Govt policies have on the ability of airline crews to do their jobs. And if you want to be more specific, the quarantine requirements for WA are now the difference between full time work and stand down for QF Long Haul pilots, as per Friday’s announcement.

If you don’t understand the finer details and realise why it’s infuriating, then don’t comment. It’s an insult to the rest of us who just want to live in Perth and do our jobs. International Pilots in the rest of Australia will very shortly be able to go back to normal…who knows when that will happen in WA.

31st first does for group 2 industry, say if they use AZ December 31st min 4 weeks maximum 12 for second dose which will be March then he is quoted in many statements that he will look at opening when 80% is reached.

I want WA to remain closed I want those mines to keep
scaling back due labor shortages and I want to see WA wake up and get pi$$ed at each other when they see the rest of us living. WA is in lockdown and you don’t even realize it.

February, March April

I don't think you can compare their finances from 2019 to 2021 and say they Covid hasn't caused an issue, which was the point of my comment. In January 2019, the ore price was around $75/T for most of the month, before finishing at $117/T in July. That same period in 2021 was $166/T & $218/T so of course their earnings will be substantially higher, even though their unit costs have increased by 25% over that time while their tonnages have remained almost static at 327MT shipped 2019 vs expected 320-325MT shipped 2021.

However, that doesn't alter the fact they could have made several billion more had they had sufficient staff on site. Which they have admitted they don't have, as have BHP. If SOPS were to be believed, there wouldn't be a labour shortage in WA as they can handle everything they need to, in-house.

Evidence across a range of industries in WA shows that to be false.

EDIT:
And NSW now has a 14-day rolling average case # below 400 being only 384 / day yet continue to be held in the "Extreme Risk" category for WA while even if the ACT records zero cases today, they would still be above the 'magic 500' when adjusted for population, while WA keeps them in only the "Medium Risk" category. But of course it's based on "health advice". :yuk:

Thats the problem, the ‘advice’ is taken as gospel for ass covering from someone that has no skin in the game.

AstraZeneca has already been phased out, it’s all Pfizer and Moderna now with a shorter second dose interval. 80% will be reached early December, and 90% prior to year’s end. An apparent change in policy from the Health Minister yesterday, indicating a reopening plan to be announced prior to reaching the 80% target. Previously it was to be announced somewhere between 80-90%. That’s was probably why the vaccine mandate for 75% of workers was bought in, to get the rates up quicker. If WA were truly blasé about reopening then they’d hardly institute such a widespread mandate.

Criticise actions of governments all you want, but wishing the people of a place to suffer to prove a point is a bit demented.....

While there is some squeeze on workforce, most is of Rios creation with the move to more contracted work (2016) in lieu of full time in house due to 'volatile ore prices'. There is also a major weather event thrown in which disrupted ports and and operations during the period. Rio is also operating at close to maximum capacity anyway until Koodaideri comes on line, which is fairly soon, that will add another 40 MgT of ore capability. Outside of that the wild iron ore prices are probably thanks to covid.

With regard to crews infuriated in WA. Us pilots in Victoria and NSW have been in lockdown and more or less permanent stand down, so while there is a little bit of sympathy for the plight of the few QF pilots that can't work or have to quarantine a while I assume still being paid. Many, if not most on the East coast have been existing on dole level income for close to 2 years, that's airlines domestic, long haul, short haul, regional, GA, even private pilots could not fly in Melbourne, we don't even have the option to fly and then quarantine. If you are an intrastate pilot in WA or any other state based worker you are probably working with reasonable income, and have been the whole pandemic, which I am happy for them.

If you choose to live in a state with known isolationist policies, times will happen when you are isolated from the world. The locals have chosen this path, they set a clear mandate to the government in the election.

The question is in a few years time when the state pushes for independence, will you stick with the republic of McGowan or move back to the Kingdom of Morrison. :E

I don't think so in the slightest. You reap what you sow, and for such a large percentage of the WA population to vote for McGowan on the basis of his state border policies to the detriment of the rest of the country, to me, says they deserve everything that comes their way.

How many hundreds of thousands of people have suffered as a result of WA's border policies? As a result of Queensland's? Take a look at the hundreds of media reports about people being detained in hotel quarantine while their parent dies only a mile or two away, parents being told they cannot enter the hospital to see their child undergoing critical treatment as they're from NSW and an unelected official declared an entire state a Covid Hotspot or health staff being told they'll not be allowed to leave their home if they go to work across the border as they'll need to quarantine (endlessly) on their return. So no, I don't think wishing ill will on a state that does that is out of line - for the simple reason they have done it to everyone else - and keep right on doing it!

You need to stop focussing on Rio Tinto and consider the broader context, I used Rio as they were the first ones out of the gate to complain about the worker shortage. Fast forward a few days and BHP did the same, yet you've not commented on them at all. Or the cafe's who are short of chefs, the c0ckies who need workers for the harvest or the pubs up north who don't have backpackers pulling beers.

I never said there was no worker shortage, I was stating just that Rio is a bad example of doing badly in covid. BHP the same.

We (Melbourne) just opened up here, so many shops are just happy to see customers let alone worry about staff, however we are still short staffed here as well as many casuals laid off have become used to sitting around or moved into other occupations. Many local larger shops are taking walk in applications as net based recruiting is not gathering enough. So it's not just a WA issue at the moment. You would think from all the moaning that people would be dying for work, but it's not really showing up in applicants for the basic stuff with local supermarkets in large suburbs still struggling to get staff. Local managers asking staff if they have any kids or friends etc that need work, different from a few years ago where you had to take a job in a burb 20 km away to begin.

I won't be surprised if Melbourne in particular starts to see logistics issues with lack of delivery drivers leading to pay and condition pushes, like in the UK. A lot of supermarkets are already having delivery issues with congested distribution centers, and shelves lacking some goods. This is in part due to covid hitting a couple of major distribution hubs, but is also due to lack of drivers.

PS Auspost and most other delivery services are screwed here, it takes a week plus to get things sent across the city, and don't bother paying the extra for 'express' it gets there at the same time. It's going to totally implode by Christmas.

There will be a lot of relief from shops re-opening. The sky won’t fall. Calm down

I have never posted any such thing and I'm not a supporter of him myself, I think he is a one trick pony with far too much power. I live in the electorate that had to put up with his "Walter Mitty" pal Barry Urban, I have no time for any of them.

I have never posted that I am a fan of closed borders, I am one of many who had to watch a parent die on Facetime and attend a Youtube funeral, so you can wind your neck in there.

There are no politicians or political parties that give a toss about small aviation businesses or deserve out support, so we actually get on with our lives despite whatever the governments throw at us; my aviation business has been trading steadily throughout the pandemic, keeping GA props turning.

There really are some posters here who are full of hatred they decide to label 2.5 million people as "bogans" and seem to really want us to have the virus here because apparently we deserve it for having a premier that they don't like. It's pathetic to watch these bitter and twisted people go on and on.

Criticise McGowan all you like but ridiculing a state full of people just makes you look like a stupid bully. FWIW the tide does seem to be turning against him.

Fair enough I guess Clare. Might be easier to understand your support of a statement, if you only quote the statement and not the whole post. Especially when you are quoting someone like SOPS, as we know he’s a myopic MM lover.

No Chad.. you know very little actually. I like Clare, get sick of people that seem to want us overrun we Covid because they don’t like our Premier. Please don’t assume things.

"Overrun with Covid"...Puh-lease. You're more melodramatic than Anna-Stayaway and her "thousands will die each month if we open the border" rubbish.

YOUR CHO - not NSW's, not Qld's, and not whoever is advising ScoMo - testified under oath that the WA health system is capable of managing 500 new cases per day or 5,000 total cases.

IF that is true, then on what grounds does WA continue to exclude 2/3rds of the country from the state based on nothing more than the state in which they live? To the untrained eye, that's against s.117 of the Constitution. If it were based on a defined risk, I'd have no problem with it, nor any leg on which to stand. However, I didn't stand up in court and say "We can manage 5,000 cases". Dr Andy Robertson did.
So, if the WA health system can manage with upto 500 new cases per day, is it really fair or just to deny 2/3rds of the population entry to Western Australia based on nothing more than their state of residence?

Unless there's something more at play...

Yes, when that state of residence had Covid rampant in the community.

And for those who think I am a McGowan fan, he has just decided that aviation businesses who were forced to close during the last lockdown are not eligable for the government small business assistance payment. So I am NOT a fan of him or any other politician. Doesn't mean I want to throw the borders open to people from states that have lost control of the virus. I've been involved in quarantine in the agricultural industry and this is no different.

I saw an article that quoted Queen P as saying "...when Delta arrives....' regards vaccinations in QLD.
For an elimination proponent (as a preference ) I thought a major change of direction for her leadership.

Chairman Dan has followed in the NSW footsteps, not his preferred direction maybe but he's pivoted based on vaccination levels.

Tasmania/South Australia/NT have/will pivot and decide direction based on vaccinations.

The success of all the above (or not) will only be determined by time BUT those states have decided a certain path to move forward.

I perceive (rightly/wrongly) McGowan is still a covid eliminator and his actions will be determined more by elimination rather than vaccinations.
It will be interesting to see if/when he makes a Queen P pronouncement "...when Delta arrives....." if he ever does, major change of direction to be handled.

Separate but find it quite offensive he's so proud to spruik the WA budget deficit - which is all well and good.
Just surprised didn't follow with "...and this will allow us to fund improvements in health/infrastructure/welfare housing/..........whatever.

Leadership? Hmmmmmm.