Wikiposts
Search
Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

Bonza has its AOC

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 24th May 2023, 04:07
  #341 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Oz
Age: 68
Posts: 1,913
Received 295 Likes on 124 Posts
They are screwed either way. Cut back 25% of the schedule, bad press and customer backlash. Live and hope everyday each aircraft doesn’t require engineering? That’s a fantasy. Need to build some slack into any operation these days considering the supply chain delays should one require a non local available part. Could be a week to two wait for a supplier in the US to get a part out.

The priority seems to be its Canadian outfit. If they have been cut off from all aircraft orders, remains to be seen what is the actual future. Don’t underestimate those delayed leasing repayments, will make it very hard trying to build a fleet if Boeing has wiped any current orders in the system, as the Seattle Times speculated at.
PoppaJo is offline  
Old 24th May 2023, 04:11
  #342 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Brisbane
Age: 58
Posts: 271
Received 33 Likes on 28 Posts
Originally Posted by TBM-Legend
Lessors are businesses that provide aircraft on an agreed arrangement. No pay = no play. No service = no customers.
Very simple so as I said what is Plan B? Maybe operate a three aircraft schedule with a reserve. Leave people stranded without options of immediate compensation then other alternatives are available and faith and trust lost = business failure
Interestingly the two aircraft now in Poland have different owners as far as lessors go.
markis10 is offline  
Old 24th May 2023, 04:32
  #343 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Aus
Posts: 2,792
Received 419 Likes on 231 Posts
people forget that airlines only sell one product and that is time. The travel game changer that aviation brought to the table was time otherwise ships, trains cars and horses would be ok. Frequency equals time too. Bonza has no Plan B for disrupts unlike most others. They could have ACMI’d at least one aircraft as backup until they got settled down. The fell for the playbook that says new ships are ultra- reliable which does not take into account things like bird strikes (last Saturday at MCY), wx, or ramp damage or oh dear.
Actually not quite true, while time is a major factor, large aircraft are far cheaper to run than trains and ships over distance. The capital costs to keep longer distance railways running in the modern world does not compete with that of running a few KM of runways, terminals and what are essentially economical flying busses. Trains and ships are heavily subsidized in almost all countries either in infrastructure or direct payments. The only ships and such that make a semblance of profit are huge bulk carriers or premium cruise ships. Try catching a taxi from Melbourne to Sydney, even with 5 on board its not going to be a competitive price with an airline.
43Inches is offline  
Old 24th May 2023, 05:59
  #344 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Australia/India
Posts: 5,295
Received 422 Likes on 210 Posts
So who ‘heavily subsidises’ the ships that bring most of Australia’s fuel supply to Australia? Are you labouring under the misconception that they are ‘huge bulk carriers’?

And the container ships that bring in most of Australia’s imported goods?

All of these ship pay a big bag of gold to the Commonwealth as shipping levies, based on their tonnage and the amount of fuel carried (whether as cargo or for ‘own use’).
Lead Balloon is online now  
Old 24th May 2023, 06:12
  #345 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: NSW
Posts: 4,281
Received 38 Likes on 29 Posts
Originally Posted by 43Inches
Actually not quite true, while time is a major factor, large aircraft are far cheaper to run than trains and ships over distance. The capital costs to keep longer distance railways running in the modern world does not compete with that of running a few KM of runways, terminals and what are essentially economical flying busses. Trains and ships are heavily subsidized in almost all countries either in infrastructure or direct payments. The only ships and such that make a semblance of profit are huge bulk carriers or premium cruise ships. Try catching a taxi from Melbourne to Sydney, even with 5 on board its not going to be a competitive price with an airline.
it’s not always about price. In 1989 people took taxis or chartered aircraft to SYD.

not happy if your flight is seriously delayed or canceled if you need to be somewhere. Four in your car can work depending on the destination
TBM-Legend is offline  
Old 24th May 2023, 08:34
  #346 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Aus
Posts: 2,792
Received 419 Likes on 231 Posts
Originally Posted by Lead Balloon
So who ‘heavily subsidises’ the ships that bring most of Australia’s fuel supply to Australia? Are you labouring under the misconception that they are ‘huge bulk carriers’?

And the container ships that bring in most of Australia’s imported goods?

All of these ship pay a big bag of gold to the Commonwealth as shipping levies, based on their tonnage and the amount of fuel carried (whether as cargo or for ‘own use’).
It was simplifying big ships into bulk carriers ie they carry extremely large amounts, oil tankers and large freighters, container vessels and such all carry bulk loads, that is extremely large loads at small amounts per kg. Aircraft are just not large enough to handle such loads, so watercraft are still the only method.

The ships themselves are not the money makers in the transport chain, the goods they carry are.
43Inches is offline  
Old 24th May 2023, 08:51
  #347 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Brisvegas
Posts: 3,886
Likes: 0
Received 246 Likes on 106 Posts
Trains and ships are heavily subsidized in almost all countries either in infrastructure or direct payments.
​​​​​​​ The ships themselves are not the money makers in the transport chain, the goods they carry are.
You really need to do more than a google search about shipping.

As Lead Balloon asked, who is subsidising these box ships to Australia?

​​​​​​​You also may want to google for GREEK SHIPPING TYCOON.
Icarus2001 is offline  
Old 24th May 2023, 09:19
  #348 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Australia/India
Posts: 5,295
Received 422 Likes on 210 Posts
The ships themselves are not the money makers in the transport chain, the goods they carry are.
Sometimes you crack me up, 43.

You do know the ship owners charge money to carry those goods, don’t you? And if the goods weren’t carried to their market on ships, the goods would be less valuable if not worthless?
Lead Balloon is online now  
Old 24th May 2023, 09:26
  #349 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Aus
Posts: 2,792
Received 419 Likes on 231 Posts
Shipping is interwoven into the trade network, like trucks the true cost of infrastructure and such is born by the governments to enable reliable trade markets. Airports have been divested because international aviation can self sustain without much intervention.

An aircraft just needs two runways at either end of the flight, navigation facilities, which are now gps based, so pretty cheap, and en-route control, which is ever reducing. Shipping requires clear, safe, maintained lanes of operation, port control with a huge complement of specialized staff, tugs, security and so on. Just like the question of who pays for the roads that trucks roll on, who pays for all the marine infrastructure ships use, that's where the subsidies come from. Rail now has to pay it's own way and you can see how the cost of a single line between Melbourne and Brisbane is ballooning massively. Once it's operational it will cost further billions to maintain with multitudes of staff to maintain and run the tracks.

As for the shipping magnates, there's barely any Greeks left on the list, Maersk is now the top line. The Greek families that ran the large shipping industries all made most of the family money back when shipping was king pre ww2, now most have dwindled. Yes you will make money off the huge ships, as they can move a 'ship'load of stuff. Try making money off a ferry or small logistics vessel.

There's good reason that a great deal of ships are registered in third world countries with crews from the same and look like the rust barely holds them together. Obviously a cruise liner or top end freighter that ships fragile/time sensitive stuff will make money, the rest, well, yeah....
43Inches is offline  
Old 24th May 2023, 09:34
  #350 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2022
Location: tossbagville
Posts: 795
Received 176 Likes on 102 Posts
An aircraft just needs two runways at either end of the flight, navigation facilities, which are now gps based, so pretty cheap, and en-route control
****! Is that all you need? Better tell Sydney airport the 10's of thousands of people employed there are not required.

I used to think you were pretty smart and switched on and your comments pretty accurate...........nah, I never thought that, I was being sarcastic.
tossbag is offline  
The following users liked this post:
Old 24th May 2023, 09:39
  #351 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Aus
Posts: 2,792
Received 419 Likes on 231 Posts
Originally Posted by tossbag
****! Is that all you need? Better tell Sydney airport the 10's of thousands of people employed there are not required.

I used to think you were pretty smart and switched on and your comments pretty accurate...........nah, I never thought that, I was being sarcastic.
Um you do know that the airport has hundreds of ancillary businesses that are not related to aircraft movements at all, shipping ports generally don't run shopping centers, massive carparks, bus services,etc etc etc. Ther'es probably a small fraction actually dedicated to dispatching aircraft, that is if you went to a country airstrip that services a Boeing you might need 20 staff maximum, 5 or so for a turboprop.

When a politician (or the airport) quotes how many jobs it supports it generally includes even the taxis that sit in the stand outside and so on, and really just emphasizes my point that aviation is much better at making money than shipping.

The shipping companies that make billions are companies with diverse holdings and capture large % of the global market. MSC and Maersk alone own around 35% of the global container (TEU) capacity.
43Inches is offline  
Old 24th May 2023, 10:16
  #352 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Australia/India
Posts: 5,295
Received 422 Likes on 210 Posts
And who is heavily subsidising them?
Lead Balloon is online now  
Old 24th May 2023, 11:23
  #353 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Aus
Posts: 2,792
Received 419 Likes on 231 Posts
Originally Posted by Lead Balloon
And who is heavily subsidising them?
Budget spend on maritime infrastructure last year and pretty much stable for the last ten years is just under $500million, with Aviation spending dropping below $280 million. The cost of dredging Port Phillip bay for larger freighters alone cost around $1 Billion a few years back. The operators pay about $100 a container and 20c per GT to cover existing infrastructure running costs.

Interesting to note the differences in international trade, ships transport around 11 billion tons annually valued at $14 trillion USD. Aviation only transports around 52 million tons at a value of $6 trillion.

Just like other bulk goods you have to do a lot of shipping to make money, but because only a relatively small group of companies own most of the capacity they make a lot of cash doing it.

Try buying a freighter and compete in the international market and see how much you make, if you can even get the capital to start. The Australian government even has tax incentive schemes to try to get local ships moving. I would suggest that many of the other large shippers get some form of kickbacks that help them along as well in fee and charge discounts at various ports around the world, its all corporate businesses and in constant negotiation.

I found some old stats that Maersk makes around $1500 USD revenue on an average FFE (2 x TEU) container, with around $50 USD profit. There might be up to 8,000 FFE on a ship so thats around $400,000 per trip compared to $12,000,000 revenue. Not a lot of margin for a lot of cash trading hands.

Last edited by 43Inches; 24th May 2023 at 11:36.
43Inches is offline  
Old 24th May 2023, 12:00
  #354 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Brisvegas
Posts: 3,886
Likes: 0
Received 246 Likes on 106 Posts
and really just emphasizes my point that aviation is much better at making money than shipping.
Now what does Warren Buffet think about aviation?
Icarus2001 is offline  
Old 24th May 2023, 12:37
  #355 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2020
Location: Australia
Posts: 70
Received 3 Likes on 3 Posts
According to Australian Aviation today, AB are looking to expand their network!

The TL refueller has heard that AB have to tried to engage operators to assist with AOG’s etc, but the operators have said no.
Zinfandel is online now  
Old 24th May 2023, 21:08
  #356 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2022
Location: Syd
Posts: 105
Received 4 Likes on 4 Posts
Originally Posted by markis10
Interestingly the two aircraft now in Poland have different owners as far as lessors go.
I am fairly sure the way it works, is that 777 Partners act as the "middle man". They lease large amount of aircraft from the leasing companies, then use that pool to re lease onward to it's investments. But it looks like that 777 isn't paying the monthly lease bill, the airline needs to co ordinate that payment with the initial leasing company, that is where it fell apart in Canada. In return, it looks like they have then walked away from 777 Partners, leaving about 2 or 3 aircraft on order via other misc smaller leasing firms.

777 own 100% in regards to Bonza so that might play out differently perhaps in regards to sourcing more aircraft, its Canada offshoot they only hold about 25%.

Mr_App is offline  
Old 24th May 2023, 22:06
  #357 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: Australia
Posts: 275
Received 39 Likes on 20 Posts
Originally Posted by UnderneathTheRadar
But isn't that what travel insurance is for? I'm not saying compensation shouldn't be payable - but then ticket prices will rise considerably. At least with travel insurance you have a choice to pay the premium or take your chances. Too many people not paying the premium then complaining when their 'bargain' ticket option falls apart.
That isn’t the experience in Europe where there are strict compensation laws for delays and cancelations yet multiple examples of ULCC offering extremely cheap fairs.
Colonel_Klink is online now  
Old 24th May 2023, 23:54
  #358 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Australia/India
Posts: 5,295
Received 422 Likes on 210 Posts
[R]eally just emphasizes my point that aviation is much better at making money than shipping.
More comedy gold! Thanks for another belly laugh, 43.

Without the shipping industry, half the world would freeze and half the world would starve. That’s why the shipping industry makes money. It’s ‘needed’, in the economic sense. Without it, lots and lots of people die.

Without the aviation industry, there’d be no aviation industry. It’s merely ‘wanted’ in the economic sense. Much of the commercial aviation industry that isn’t government subsidised is effectively a Ponzi scheme and that’s why Warren Buffet says what he has to say about it.
Lead Balloon is online now  
The following users liked this post:
Old 25th May 2023, 00:48
  #359 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Sunshine Coast
Posts: 1,181
Received 208 Likes on 101 Posts
Originally Posted by Lead Balloon
More comedy gold! Thanks for another belly laugh, 43.

Without the shipping industry, half the world would freeze and half the world would starve. That’s why the shipping industry makes money. It’s ‘needed’, in the economic sense. Without it, lots and lots of people die.

Without the aviation industry, there’d be no aviation industry. It’s merely ‘wanted’ in the economic sense. Much of the commercial aviation industry that isn’t government subsidised is effectively a Ponzi scheme and that’s why Warren Buffet says what he has to say about it.
That neatly sums up the difference between non-discretionary and discretionary revenue streams. Businesses that can tap into the former are typically lower margin.
MickG0105 is offline  
Old 25th May 2023, 01:12
  #360 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Aus
Posts: 2,792
Received 419 Likes on 231 Posts
Originally Posted by Lead Balloon
More comedy gold! Thanks for another belly laugh, 43.

Without the shipping industry, half the world would freeze and half the world would starve. That’s why the shipping industry makes money. It’s ‘needed’, in the economic sense. Without it, lots and lots of people die.

Without the aviation industry, there’d be no aviation industry. It’s merely ‘wanted’ in the economic sense. Much of the commercial aviation industry that isn’t government subsidised is effectively a Ponzi scheme and that’s why Warren Buffet says what he has to say about it.
The shipping industry isn't going anywhere, soon that is, as the technology to move the goods of that quantity is not available yet in other means, however, ships are expensive and not particularly efficient. They are only 'cheap' because of the sheer size of the vessels and the quantity they carry. If you were to create an aircraft that carried the same as a mega freighter the scale would make it cheaper to operate than the equivalant ship. Hence why they have tried to pursue options like ekranoplans and airships. There is also further crunch on fuel to move to less polluting higher refined fuels and biofuels as well as LNG, which is driving costs upwards. Some stats that show the increasing cost base of shipping is that over the last 20 years the accepted minimum cost effective load went from 4000 TEU to 8000 TEU, from 8000 TEU onwards the cost per container starts to be a gentle decline that still favours bigger ships but is acceptable. This is the reason the companies push for bigger ships now well in excess of 20,000 TEUs. Which means the governments have to dredge deeper channels, and provide larger port facilities as well as the ship building nations offering subsidized ship building as well as tax incentives. All part of the way countries subsidize the industry overall.

That being said there is another debt crunch coming for the container industry with China and Korea offering heavily subsidized ship building to offer replacements for what is an ageing fleet stagnated over the last 20 years due to costs. The next few years will see over capacity and losses return especially to the Asia/Pacific markets. There's already data that the Singapore-Euro market has fallen to below cost freight prices.

In the US some rail sectors are making good money, but its a distorted market as the government effectively gave away rail assets a while back and we havn't got to the stage that mass replacement of infrastructure and upgrades are required. So companies are skimming the cream off what the tax payer had paid for year. Just like Melbourne Airport is finding out how much it is just to replace aging taxiways after they had wasted millions on carparks.

The overall freight industry got a massive boost during covid, but it's about to have a big adjustment.
43Inches is offline  


Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.