Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

Bonza has its AOC

Old 21st Mar 2023, 10:41
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Originally Posted by Australopithecus
Interesting indeed. And disheartening. Clearly 777Partners are just a couple of money bros. Good luck to what I fear is going to be another cohort of employees left jobless when reality bites.
proof that you canít sell a $10 ticket for $9 and stay in business!
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Old 22nd Mar 2023, 03:03
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I suspect 777 Partners are preoccupied at raising capital with Newcastle United. https://www.sportspromedia.com/news/...sso_ott=JF2luM
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Old 23rd Mar 2023, 22:15
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On Tuesday Bonza progressed to only having half of their fleet parked up. -UKH got its first run (MCY-MQL-PQQ-MCY), after arriving in country more than a month earlier, and -UIK flew MCY-MKY return, MCY-AVV return and MCY-PPP return (to the delight of Marcoola locals, no doubt, arriving home just before midnight). Bonz managed a similar feat yesterday with -UIK and -UJK both in the air.
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Old 23rd Mar 2023, 22:59
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Originally Posted by MickG0105
https://youtu.be/g8IVI0sZ6F8

On Tuesday Bonza progressed to only having half of their fleet parked up. -UKH got its first run (MCY-MQL-PQQ-MCY), after arriving in country more than a month earlier, and -UIK flew MCY-MKY return, MCY-AVV return and MCY-PPP return (to the delight of Marcoola locals, no doubt, arriving home just before midnight). Bonz managed a similar feat yesterday with -UIK and -UJK both in the air.

what are they waiting for? Lots of staff? Are they still doing training? The people in Albury and Tamworth are getting anxious?
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Old 23rd Mar 2023, 23:01
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New routes starting each day from 27/03
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Old 24th Mar 2023, 21:22
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They are doing something different and I for one hope they succeed and wish them nothing but the best.
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Old 24th Mar 2023, 23:40
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Originally Posted by TBM-Legend
what are they waiting for? Lots of staff? Are they still doing training? The people in Albury and Tamworth are getting anxious?
They are likely waiting for passengers who are voting with their wallets at the moment, not with Bonza's leisure focused business plan.

Your power bill will be 24-30% more from July 1. Fixed rates start falling away in 90 days. The incumbent operators are full, however the market is still running at -13% capacity, and load factors are trending backwards.

Analysts predict retail sales could fall as much as 10% this quarter. All eyes will be on the market next month.
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Old 28th Mar 2023, 03:16
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Looks like AB has just clocked over 100,000 seats sold as of this week
Around 550 sectors assuming flights fully booked, which is unlikely though
The current 7 days looks like 82 sectors so anyone with more knowledge want to throw their 2 cents in if this is good going or not ?

2019 saw MCY handle around 1,000,000 passenger movements with around 86 flights per week in and out or 172 movements
One would would imagine AB will need to be selling 150,000 seats per month to have good loads on their full launch network
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Old 28th Mar 2023, 04:24
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Come back on Jan 1. Thatís what the guy funding this thing said. Profitable from Year 2. Doesnít sound as keen to p!ss cash down the drain like the striped cat did for 13 years.
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Old 28th Mar 2023, 07:42
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Originally Posted by Deano969
Looks like AB has just clocked over 100,000 seats sold as of this week
Around 550 sectors assuming flights fully booked, which is unlikely though
The current 7 days looks like 82 sectors so anyone with more knowledge want to throw their 2 cents in if this is good going or not ?

2019 saw MCY handle around 1,000,000 passenger movements with around 86 flights per week in and out or 172 movements
One would would imagine AB will need to be selling 150,000 seats per month to have good loads on their full launch network
Those figures came from Aviation Australia. We all know how accurate they are.
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Old 28th Mar 2023, 17:03
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100,000 seats came from Bonza
82 Sectors came from Flightradar24 and Bonza app
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Old 28th Mar 2023, 23:19
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Back of the napkin, 100,000 seats sold at a generous average of say $75 per seat would have generated $7.5 million in revenue. Their aircraft leasing costs alone for their four jet fleet would run to around $1.5 million a month. Given the staggered fleet delivery their leasing costs to date would be in the order of $5.4 million.

Mature state, with an all leased fleet, you'd expect leasing costs to be between 10 - 20 percent of total operating costs, maybe a smidge higher depending on how tightly they've ratcheted down their other expense lines.
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Old 29th Mar 2023, 00:49
  #273 (permalink)  
 
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I think your leasing costs might be a tad light. 737Max8 are going for around $340,000 US/month.

The entire 777Partners’ (the number comes from their street address, not the plane, btw) various enterprises business models seems to be to sell at a loss every seat (plane, football stadium) and somehow make a profit on volume. I cannot even imagine how they could tart this portfolio of holdings up for an IPO.
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Old 29th Mar 2023, 01:07
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Originally Posted by Australopithecus
I think your leasing costs might be a tad light. 737Max8 are going for around $340,000 US/month.
Agreed. I was working on the basis that the leases were likely struck around mid-2022 and that Bonz has an effective foreign exchange hedge in place.

There is no doubt that their actual leasing costs could be significantly higher. With only ten more seats than the VA and QF B738s and no J class, not only will load factors be important but it will mean that utilisation is critically important also.

As the Zen Master was fond of saying, "We'll see."
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Old 29th Mar 2023, 01:25
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The rates are likely cheap, the recent repo drama had rates around 250k/month. They have been only taking abandoned leases also, so the going rate is likely less as Boeing tries to clear those problem aircraft. Those days are gone, with some production delays hitting both Airbus and now Boeing, as seen with the Flair Repo aircraft, they are gone quick smart to other parties who will pay a higher price.

The interesting point raised by the Seattle Times, was that the 2022 order with 777 was never finalised. So they donít have much in the way of orders outstanding, and with recent payment issues in Canada, would be fair to say Boeing has its eyes elsewhere.

It would be interesting to know if Bonzaís aircraft are all sourced via 777 or another leasing agent. 777 saved 7 aircraft from being repossessed by paying the overdue lease. Seems like a very messy fleet arrangement.

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Old 29th Mar 2023, 03:46
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I get that they are in the red as birds on the ground for months, training and many other start up costs play their part

More so how does selling 100k seats at whatever $$ stand
Considering
100,000 seats would equate to 500ish sectors full or 650ish sectors at 80% LF
They have likely done 100-150 or so flights thus far
They have 84 odd sectors per week currently
Full stage 1 launch would be 160-180 sectors weekly
They seem to be drip feeding more flights weekly though so the weekly number is forever changing
Factor that with no business travel to speak of, advanced bookings would be on the lower side

So does 100,000 seats look good, bad or average ?

To me it looks fairly reasonable any other thoughts ?
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Old 29th Mar 2023, 07:31
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Originally Posted by Deano969
I get that they are in the red as birds on the ground for months, training and many other start up costs play their part

More so how does selling 100k seats at whatever $$ stand
Considering
100,000 seats would equate to 500ish sectors full or 650ish sectors at 80% LF
They have likely done 100-150 or so flights thus far
They have 84 odd sectors per week currently
Full stage 1 launch would be 160-180 sectors weekly
They seem to be drip feeding more flights weekly though so the weekly number is forever changing
Factor that with no business travel to speak of, advanced bookings would be on the lower side

So does 100,000 seats look good, bad or average ?

To me it looks fairly reasonable any other thoughts ?

Itís a meaningless statistic without yield, strategic sold 100000s of seats as did jetgo ÖÖ
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Old 29th Mar 2023, 07:33
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Originally Posted by DJ737
New routes starting each day from 27/03

Indeed. Today noticed that they had three of the four aircraft airborne simultaneously !
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Old 29th Mar 2023, 16:03
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Originally Posted by markis10
Itís a meaningless statistic without yield, strategic sold 100000s of seats as did jetgo ÖÖ
The doomsayers on here have been saying that the regional to regional routes have no chance of getting decent loads
Not interested if $50-$100 fares are viable, AB would have done their homework on this no doubt
AB did say they need 90% LF

The question I'm asking is
100k seats sold, does this equate to relatively full flights ?
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Old 29th Mar 2023, 18:40
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Originally Posted by Deano969
The question I'm asking is
100k seats sold, does this equate to relatively full flights ?
And as I said itís a meaningless statistic , you cannot translate one into the other, for example if you look a week beginning April 1 they have 52 flights into/out if the coast, thats just under 10k of seats. At a guess they have 300k of inventory to fill for MCY on sale, probably a similar number for MEL. Looking at individual flights will probably give a slightly clearer indication, while they have sold out PPP for Easter Thursday, itís the only destination that is sold out on what is one of the busiest days of the year, NTL and MKY are wide open and selling from $69.

There are no destinations that you could go to on that Thursday and fly back on the Monday from MCY other than MEL. As mentioned by others, even weekends away are not possible if you are looking at Friday & Sunday evening flights to most destinations. They do seem to have some success with their target market - VFR/Holiday traffic, as AVV/MEL flights to MCY the following week are $200-300 during school holidays, still $150-200 less than their competition.
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