Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

Bonza has its AOC

Old 15th Mar 2023, 23:34
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Originally Posted by Icarus2001
So much stagnating that the Reserve Bank is increasing rates regularly to cool the heat in the economy. There are massive shortages of workers. Prices are higher, yes indeed, but even 7% means that the $100 basket of groceries last year now costs $107. Not really earth shattering for about 80% of the population. The media are overstating the pain, as always. Power prices are a worry, the effect is being seen in house settlements and successful home loan applications, both falling.
As to a tipping point, there is no such thing in the economy. The language borrowed from the climate change industry, where it is also completely incorrect.
you must be a very special individual to believe inflation is 7%, especially considering the government keeps changing how they calculate inflation every 6 months. I wish I lived in a delusional lala land where inflation was only 15%...
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Old 16th Mar 2023, 00:16
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Let's look a how they arrive at the inflation number
23% is housing , which should be negative at the moment
17% is food and drinks , a big factor in this is energy costs , totally beyond our control
11% is transport , again a big factor in this is energy costs , totally beyond our control
9% smokes and alcohol , only the government controls these prices
There are a few more...
Funny that energy is not in the calculations

Too much of the above is beyond our control and jacking interest rates up changes very little
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Old 16th Mar 2023, 00:18
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You must be a very special individual to believe that you understand inflation. The calculation in real terms is complicated and involves demand-pull, cost-pull measures etc and is derived from some 80+ attributes. The standard presentation is through CPI which is measured by the ABS every quarter and also presents an overall level annually. Current CPI for Australia is 6.9%. Now, I agree that CPI has its limitations, however it is probably the most easiest measure to understand, even if it is a crude measure.

As for changes in the calculation. You're right, and wrong at the same time. The measure variables have changed and expanded to encompass greater variables. The calculation, however has not changed since its introduction in 1960.
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Old 16th Mar 2023, 00:28
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Originally Posted by Deano969
Let's look a how they arrive at the inflation number
23% is housing , which should be negative at the moment
17% is food and drinks , a big factor in this is energy costs , totally beyond our control
11% is transport , again a big factor in this is energy costs , totally beyond our control
9% smokes and alcohol , only the government controls these prices
There are a few more...
Funny that energy is not in the calculations

Too much of the above is beyond our control and jacking interest rates up changes very little
Energy is. It is part of the 87 measures. These % is from an overview (summary) of measures. Energy is under housing.
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Old 16th Mar 2023, 01:46
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Originally Posted by HappyBandit
Energy is. It is part of the 87 measures. These % is from an overview (summary) of measures. Energy is under housing.
Quite correct. Electricity, and Gas and other household fuels are Expenditure Categories in the Utilities sub-group, which sits in the Housing group. Notably, New dwelling purchases by owner-occupiers makes up only about one third of the Housing group costs. The other expenditure categories under Housing are Rents (also around a third of total Housing group costs), and Maintenance, Property Rates, and Water and sewerage (in aggregate, also around one third).
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Old 16th Mar 2023, 03:05
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Originally Posted by Icarus2001
Prices are higher, yes indeed, but even 7% means that the $100 basket of groceries last year now costs $107.
Supermarket prices would be at least 20% higher vs 2019. I have the receipts kept in the app that proves that. Some items are 30-40% higher. Recent market results from major retailers indicate some potential margin gouging underway, same behaviour seen from one major airline group.

Commercial teams in many industries have become comfortable with the current margin level, unless revenue starts to fall away, donít expect that to change in a hurry.
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Old 16th Mar 2023, 03:28
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So the above posters cannot agree what items make up the inflation figures and statements like ...

Supermarket prices would be at least 20% higher vs 2019.
are meaningless without evidence.

Bottom line, very low unemployment, stabilising or falling house prices, inflation has "probably" peaked...the economy is not "stagnating".
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Old 16th Mar 2023, 03:58
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Inflation has almost peaked. We will see another 2-3 rate rises before they level off until end of yr annd then and drop .75 over 3 months were they will sit. Personally hope they don’t ever go back to less than 1%, we are seeing now what that does to ppl. Gives false hope of the economy.

We won’t see goods come back however, the population won’t take a pay cut and the refineries won’t refine for anything less now that we are used to it.
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Old 16th Mar 2023, 04:39
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and the refineries won’t refine for anything less now that we are used to it.
Not many of those in Australia anymore.
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Old 16th Mar 2023, 06:34
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Originally Posted by Icarus2001
So the above posters cannot agree what items make up the inflation figures ...
Probably more correct to say that one poster doesn't know what items make up the inflation figures. The make up of the CPI is well documented.
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Old 16th Mar 2023, 06:44
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So thank you all for the lessons on the economics of the Australian economy. Sadly no PhD stuff there and so it may be of interest to see how Bonza is travelling with good or not so good load factors as in the airline business Coles and Woolies donít sell airline tickets to the best of my understanding.
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Old 16th Mar 2023, 22:48
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Am I correct in believing that Bonza currently has three aircraft at its disposal (UJK, UIK and UJT) but only appears to fly one of the three on any given day ?
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Old 16th Mar 2023, 23:38
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Originally Posted by Mach2point7
Am I correct in believing that Bonza currently has three aircraft at its disposal (UJK, UIK and UJT) but only appears to fly one of the three on any given day ?
No
They have 4 at the moment
Often 2 flying daily
Ramping up and of March, pretty much doubling sectors
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Old 17th Mar 2023, 05:41
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Originally Posted by Mach2point7
Am I correct in believing that Bonza currently has three aircraft at its disposal (UJK, UIK and UJT) but only appears to fly one of the three on any given day ?
They've got four out here at the moment (-UIK, -UJK, -UJT, and -UKH). On any given day three are parked up.

Of late, they seem to be running a three day rotation. -UJT is currently getting its turn; it's doing MCY-TSV-ROK-TSV-MCY today, flew yesterday and flew on Wednesday. -UJK flew the three days before that (12-14 March incl) and -UIK got its run 11-13 March incl. -UKH hasn't flown since arriving in Australia a month ago. I cannot recall a day when they have had two aircraft operating revenue flights same day (when you only have two east-coast domestic returns on your "busy" days you really don't need to).

Last edited by MickG0105; 17th Mar 2023 at 10:29. Reason: Tidy up
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Old 17th Mar 2023, 19:31
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Thanks Mick; that is a good summary. This thread started over two months ago following a much delayed AOC approval. It seems notable that with a fleet of four aircraft on the register and in-country, only one of the four flies each day - usually six sectors. The question is why. Crew shortage or some other constraint ?
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Old 17th Mar 2023, 19:45
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One would assume due to the non business traveller nature re the route network, they need considerable time to get forward bookings. You canít really launch Melbourne to Bundy next week and expect to go out full, Sydney to Adelaide Rex could kick off next week if they wanted to.

Now you would assume the lease payments are the same as sister company Flair, which appear to be 250k/month each as per the recent aircraft repo drama.
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Old 17th Mar 2023, 22:19
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Originally Posted by PoppaJo
One would assume due to the non business traveller nature re the route network, they need considerable time to get forward bookings. You canít really launch Melbourne to Bundy next week and expect to go out full, Sydney to Adelaide Rex could kick off next week if they wanted to.

Now you would assume the lease payments are the same as sister company Flair, which appear to be 250k/month each as per the recent aircraft repo drama.
I guess the Oracle has spoken. Bookings start generally before the routes commence, sometimes weeks or months.

The repos from Flair were from a company not associated with 777 Partners.
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Old 21st Mar 2023, 08:08
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Interesting article by Dominic Gates of The Seattle Times:

https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...n-the-balance/

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Old 21st Mar 2023, 08:40
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Originally Posted by deja vu
Time to end the myth that maintenance done in Australia is somehow superior to numerous other places.
Absolutely agree on that.
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Old 21st Mar 2023, 10:01
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Interesting indeed. And disheartening. Clearly 777Partners are just a couple of money bros. Good luck to what I fear is going to be another cohort of employees left jobless when reality bites.
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