Bonza has its AOC
So much stagnating that the Reserve Bank is increasing rates regularly to cool the heat in the economy. There are massive shortages of workers. Prices are higher, yes indeed, but even 7% means that the $100 basket of groceries last year now costs $107. Not really earth shattering for about 80% of the population. The media are overstating the pain, as always. Power prices are a worry, the effect is being seen in house settlements and successful home loan applications, both falling.
As to a tipping point, there is no such thing in the economy. The language borrowed from the climate change industry, where it is also completely incorrect.
As to a tipping point, there is no such thing in the economy. The language borrowed from the climate change industry, where it is also completely incorrect.
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Let's look a how they arrive at the inflation number
23% is housing , which should be negative at the moment
17% is food and drinks , a big factor in this is energy costs , totally beyond our control
11% is transport , again a big factor in this is energy costs , totally beyond our control
9% smokes and alcohol , only the government controls these prices
There are a few more...
Funny that energy is not in the calculations
Too much of the above is beyond our control and jacking interest rates up changes very little
23% is housing , which should be negative at the moment
17% is food and drinks , a big factor in this is energy costs , totally beyond our control
11% is transport , again a big factor in this is energy costs , totally beyond our control
9% smokes and alcohol , only the government controls these prices
There are a few more...
Funny that energy is not in the calculations
Too much of the above is beyond our control and jacking interest rates up changes very little
You must be a very special individual to believe that you understand inflation. The calculation in real terms is complicated and involves demand-pull, cost-pull measures etc and is derived from some 80+ attributes. The standard presentation is through CPI which is measured by the ABS every quarter and also presents an overall level annually. Current CPI for Australia is 6.9%. Now, I agree that CPI has its limitations, however it is probably the most easiest measure to understand, even if it is a crude measure.
As for changes in the calculation. You're right, and wrong at the same time. The measure variables have changed and expanded to encompass greater variables. The calculation, however has not changed since its introduction in 1960.
As for changes in the calculation. You're right, and wrong at the same time. The measure variables have changed and expanded to encompass greater variables. The calculation, however has not changed since its introduction in 1960.
Let's look a how they arrive at the inflation number
23% is housing , which should be negative at the moment
17% is food and drinks , a big factor in this is energy costs , totally beyond our control
11% is transport , again a big factor in this is energy costs , totally beyond our control
9% smokes and alcohol , only the government controls these prices
There are a few more...
Funny that energy is not in the calculations
Too much of the above is beyond our control and jacking interest rates up changes very little
23% is housing , which should be negative at the moment
17% is food and drinks , a big factor in this is energy costs , totally beyond our control
11% is transport , again a big factor in this is energy costs , totally beyond our control
9% smokes and alcohol , only the government controls these prices
There are a few more...
Funny that energy is not in the calculations
Too much of the above is beyond our control and jacking interest rates up changes very little
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Quite correct. Electricity, and Gas and other household fuels are Expenditure Categories in the Utilities sub-group, which sits in the Housing group. Notably, New dwelling purchases by owner-occupiers makes up only about one third of the Housing group costs. The other expenditure categories under Housing are Rents (also around a third of total Housing group costs), and Maintenance, Property Rates, and Water and sewerage (in aggregate, also around one third).
Commercial teams in many industries have become comfortable with the current margin level, unless revenue starts to fall away, don’t expect that to change in a hurry.
So the above posters cannot agree what items make up the inflation figures and statements like ...
are meaningless without evidence.
Bottom line, very low unemployment, stabilising or falling house prices, inflation has "probably" peaked...the economy is not "stagnating".
Supermarket prices would be at least 20% higher vs 2019.
Bottom line, very low unemployment, stabilising or falling house prices, inflation has "probably" peaked...the economy is not "stagnating".
Inflation has almost peaked. We will see another 2-3 rate rises before they level off until end of yr annd then and drop .75 over 3 months were they will sit. Personally hope they don’t ever go back to less than 1%, we are seeing now what that does to ppl. Gives false hope of the economy.
We won’t see goods come back however, the population won’t take a pay cut and the refineries won’t refine for anything less now that we are used to it.
We won’t see goods come back however, the population won’t take a pay cut and the refineries won’t refine for anything less now that we are used to it.
So thank you all for the lessons on the economics of the Australian economy. Sadly no PhD stuff there and so it may be of interest to see how Bonza is travelling with good or not so good load factors as in the airline business Coles and Woolies don’t sell airline tickets to the best of my understanding.
Of late, they seem to be running a three day rotation. -UJT is currently getting its turn; it's doing MCY-TSV-ROK-TSV-MCY today, flew yesterday and flew on Wednesday. -UJK flew the three days before that (12-14 March incl) and -UIK got its run 11-13 March incl. -UKH hasn't flown since arriving in Australia a month ago. I cannot recall a day when they have had two aircraft operating revenue flights same day (when you only have two east-coast domestic returns on your "busy" days you really don't need to).
Last edited by MickG0105; 17th Mar 2023 at 10:29. Reason: Tidy up
Thanks Mick; that is a good summary. This thread started over two months ago following a much delayed AOC approval. It seems notable that with a fleet of four aircraft on the register and in-country, only one of the four flies each day - usually six sectors. The question is why. Crew shortage or some other constraint ?
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One would assume due to the non business traveller nature re the route network, they need considerable time to get forward bookings. You can’t really launch Melbourne to Bundy next week and expect to go out full, Sydney to Adelaide Rex could kick off next week if they wanted to.
Now you would assume the lease payments are the same as sister company Flair, which appear to be 250k/month each as per the recent aircraft repo drama.
Now you would assume the lease payments are the same as sister company Flair, which appear to be 250k/month each as per the recent aircraft repo drama.
One would assume due to the non business traveller nature re the route network, they need considerable time to get forward bookings. You can’t really launch Melbourne to Bundy next week and expect to go out full, Sydney to Adelaide Rex could kick off next week if they wanted to.
Now you would assume the lease payments are the same as sister company Flair, which appear to be 250k/month each as per the recent aircraft repo drama.
Now you would assume the lease payments are the same as sister company Flair, which appear to be 250k/month each as per the recent aircraft repo drama.
The repos from Flair were from a company not associated with 777 Partners.
Interesting article by Dominic Gates of The Seattle Times:
https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...n-the-balance/
https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...n-the-balance/
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Interesting indeed. And disheartening. Clearly 777Partners are just a couple of money bros. Good luck to what I fear is going to be another cohort of employees left jobless when reality bites.
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