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MH370 - "new" news

Old 15th Dec 2022, 10:10
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Icarus2001

Using soap and water for the oxygen bottle leak detection test is not the correct procedure.
Impurities from soap residual can corrode a valve.
The proper method is to use an approved leak detector fluid.
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Old 15th Dec 2022, 10:24
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dr dre

Suggest you read the manual.
Take note of the location of the crew oxygen bottle and the equipment adjacent to it.

Suggest you refresh up on the effects of hypoxia and previous hypoxia related flights such as Helios 522, Payne Stewart’s Lear Jet, VH-SKC and Kalitta 66.

Suggest you review the benefits of an autopilot
If the crew has programmed a diversion to Banda Aceh via VAMPI-MEKAR-NILAM-SANOB-BAC, the autopilot will follow this route, further inputs by the crew are not required for the aircraft to turn south from SANOB to Banda Aceh.
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Old 15th Dec 2022, 11:30
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Originally Posted by GBO
Suggest you refresh up on the effects of hypoxia and previous hypoxia related flights such as Helios 522, Payne Stewartís Lear Jet, VH-SKC and Kalitta 66.​​​
In those incidents pilots lost consciousness within minutes of the decompression occurring. At MH370's cruise level time of useful consciousness is no more than one minute. Your story relies on pilots being consciousness enough to program an FMC one hour after the decompression event occurred.

If the crew has programmed a diversion to Banda Aceh via VAMPI-MEKAR-NILAM-SANOB-BAC, the autopilot will follow this route, further inputs by the crew are not required for the aircraft to turn south from SANOB to Banda Aceh.
So the crew experienced a decompression, weren't able to use any oxygen as you say the crew bottle ruptured, turned back towards Penang, but almost one hour were programming the FMC to fly a route to an airport to their south west even though radar showed them heading north west?

Suggest you get a pilot's licence then years of experience of an airline pilot before posting your "theories" again.
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Old 15th Dec 2022, 14:14
  #44 (permalink)  
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MH 370 is truly the gift that keeps on giving.
I encourage you all to remain civil to one another - as usual, please disagree without being disagreeable - as this discussion continues.
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Old 15th Dec 2022, 20:07
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I like GBO’s thinking. I too think the O2 bottle rupture caused the cascade of failures. I differ from GBO and conclude the decompression caused the pilots to be incapacitated within say, 10 minutes…..the subsequent turns can be explained by an autopilot off flight. Of course, the first turn was manually executed before the pilots became hypoxic. Not only is the aircraft flying autopilot off, but it is also in ‘secondary flying control mode’. In this case I think a B777 is stable enough, both laterally and longitudinally, to continue until fuel exhaustion.
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Old 15th Dec 2022, 20:53
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Originally Posted by birdspeed
and conclude the decompression caused the pilots to be incapacitated within say, 10 minutes
Could you explain why the crew didnít commence an emergency descent at the first sign of decompression?
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Old 15th Dec 2022, 21:01
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OK. Plausible enough theory, along with many others.

A couple of things are a little difficult to understand. F/O finds time to try and use his phone but makes no effort on VHF? No idea about 777 but every other modern aircraft I’ve flown has at least one box powered by an emergency bus.

No idea if this is true but anecdotally , I’ve always been told that smokers are more resilient to hypoxia, something about their systems being hardened to low O2 environments.

Cascading / multiple faults always give me pause - the chances of such occurrences are infinitesimal. Not to say impossible, but rather other simpler theories are more attractive.

Nevertheless, super interesting analysis by GBO. Thank you for sharing.

Indeed, locating the FDR and CVR of MH370 can’t come soon enough - there is much to learn. Although, one wonders if after 10 years of immersion they will yield any data.
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Old 15th Dec 2022, 21:18
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Originally Posted by Capt Fathom
Could you explain why the crew didnít commence an emergency descent at the first sign of decompression?
The pilots would be suddenly subjected to multiple serious failures, including possibly all of the following, blank flight screens, unreliable instruments, disconnection of autopilot/autothrottle, Left AC Bus, No comms, and to top it all a decompression going on in the background, to which there may have been no warning due L AIMS/EICAS failure.

By the time they had made the turn back to Penang they were going hypoxic, having now donned their masks but getting no O2 they didnít accomplish any emergency descent.

Not the usual scenario you might practice in the Sim !
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Old 15th Dec 2022, 22:01
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Originally Posted by lucille
OK. Plausible enough theory, along with many others.
This O2 failure does fit with all the known circumstantial evidence we have. Itís been difficult as there has been confusing and miss information since the beginning.The O2 bottle failure is perhaps the only theory that fits the evidence, and of course there can only be one correct theory.

And as for the pilot murder/suicide idea, complete rubbish. Only propagated by the media and people who donít understand the inner workings of a B777. Agreed, it is a complicated cascade of multiple failures, but all initiated by a simple single source of failure.
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Old 15th Dec 2022, 23:04
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I don't often agree with Dre, but his point is valid - O2 failure does NOT explain the repeated course changes the aircraft made - and if a hypoxic pilot somehow managed to program all that in the computer before passing out - why would he input that course (which conveniently skirts around ground radar coverage).

My personal favorite theory is that it was some sort of planned hijack/hostage taking (or kidnapping) plan that went wrong. One pilot intentionally depressurized the aircraft to keep the passengers from making a ruckus, overdid it, and when he realized everyone was dead, he pointed the aircraft towards the most remote bit of ocean he could come up with, and then turned off his own O2.
But like all the others, it's just a theory at this point.
BTW, if the black boxes are ever found (and are still functional), I seriously doubt the CVR will have anything useful left - it was so long after whatever was the initiating event that any info would have been written over. The FDR would be the best hope.
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Old 16th Dec 2022, 00:36
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Lucille

If the Left ARINC 629 / AMU is inoperative, all radio calls are inoperative. The only option available is a cell phone. The FO sitting in the right hand cockpit seat is in the ideal position (zero Doppler) for his phone to connect with the Penang cell phone tower (Grain Loaf Bakery), as the aircraft made a gentle turn to the right, south of Penang.

tdracer

MH370 didn’t skirt around ground radar, it did the opposite. From IGARI the aircraft has remained at altitude and diverted west INTO range of multiple primary radar sites: Kota Bharu, Hat Yai, Phuket, Butterworth, Penang Hill, Medan, Lhokseumawe, Sabang, Sibolga.

dr dre

Time until hypoxia is greater in a gradual decompression compared to an explosive decompression. Gradual decompression events are insidious in nature, they can easily go undetected.

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Old 16th Dec 2022, 01:19
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GBO. Why is there a gradual decompression? Are you saying an exploding crew oxygen cylinder blows only a small hole in the fuselage?
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Old 16th Dec 2022, 01:30
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So this happened to a Learjet,.but I still think it's an applicable example of what happens during severe hypoxia:

Possibly a feature of the MH370 incident.? Dunno.
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Old 16th Dec 2022, 03:31
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Originally Posted by GBO
Time until hypoxia is greater in a gradual decompression compared to an explosive decompression. Gradual decompression events are insidious in nature, they can easily go undetected.
So the oxygen bottle ruptured, took out the transponder and the cabin altitude warning system but left most other systems intact. It ruptured a hole in fuselage just the precise size needed to let air leak out at such a small rate it would not be detected. Even the tiniest of holes is still going to have air leak out of the cabin at a rate of about 1000ft per minute (and I'm being very generous there, in reality it should be much more). At a cabin altitude of 8,000 to 30,000ft (where useful consciousness is about 1 minute) will only take 20 minutes. But we know that someone made a deliberate course change at least 1 hour after the initial deviation, when the aircraft was heading WNW towards the Andaman Islands on it's last radar verified track to turn it to the South, around the top of Sumatra towards the Southern Indian Ocean.

So even if this "magic oxygen bottle" exists it still doesn't match with known evidence. QF30's ruptured oxygen bottle caused an almost instantaneous loss of all cabin pressure when it breached the fuselage.

The incident with the Kalitta Learjet in the previous video lasted a grand total of a few minutes, from the pilot descending from FL320 to a more breathable FL110. A few minutes, the time of useful consciousness at FL320 is about 1-2 minutes, so even though he was slurring his words (hypoxia effect) he had just a minute or two to get the aircraft down to more breathable air before he lost the motor skill capacity to make control inputs. MH370 was at FL350, wher time of useful consciousness is about 30 seconds. Yet the decompression story requires us to believe that a pilot stayed conscious in that environment for almost an hour with no supplemental oxygen then made a control input to turn the aircraft to the south? Simply not believable.
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Old 16th Dec 2022, 03:55
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Capt Fathom

Based on the adjacent equipment failures associated with a rupturing oxygen bottle and fuel analysis, I predict that the cause of the gradual decompression is a pressurisation system failure.

Given the last ACARS report at 1706:43: FL350, M0.82, Fuel on board 43800 kg
Then for the actual weather conditions and a PDA of 1.5% from the aircraft’s OFP, a diversion from IGARI to the last radar point (10 NM NW of MEKAR at 1822:12) at FL340/M0.84 would equate to fuel remaining at 1822:12 as 35109kg.
If the aircraft was to maintain this speed and total fuel burn rate of approx 6900kg/hr, it is not going to remain airborne until the 7th arc time of 0019:29UTC.

But, if the aircraft slows to the ECON desc speed as it passes the Top Of Desc point to Banda Aceh, but maintains FL340 (everyone’s deceased), the fuel flow reduces to 6200kg/hr and then down to 5600kg/hr as weight reduces, the aircraft can remain airborne until arc 7, but ONLY IF both bleed air systems have failed since IGARI, and remained failed until 0019:29!
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Old 16th Dec 2022, 03:59
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So if all the previous decompression/hypoxia incidents quoted support the theory of slow pilot incapacitation, why doesn't Silk Air, Egypt Air and German Wings support the theory that the pilot was responsible for the aircraft tracking out over the Indian Ocean until it run out of fuel?
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Old 16th Dec 2022, 04:20
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Originally Posted by Lookleft
So if all the previous decompression/hypoxia incidents quoted support the theory of slow pilot incapacitation, why doesn't Silk Air, Egypt Air and German Wings support the theory that the pilot was responsible for the aircraft tracking out over the Indian Ocean until it run out of fuel?
To this day the Egyptians refuse to admit Egyptair was a deliberate act, the Indonesians refuse to admit Silkair was a deliberate act, and the Chinese will probably never admit China Eastern was probably a deliberate act. There's a lot of aversion to admitting one of your own is responsible for that kind of act in those cultures. But also more broadly in aviation, pilots seem to be better at dealing with technical things over personal things. We want there to be a technical cause as we can understand it a lot better than dealing with human psychology.
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Old 16th Dec 2022, 04:56
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Originally Posted by GBO
BuzzBox



The Flight simulator is inconclusive and has many flaws. They just cherry picked waypoints, which didnít have timestamps and stitched a path together. The waypoints could be from multiple sessions. The last waypoint in the southern Indian Ocean were it ran out of fuel was supposedly flown in a PSS B777, the major problem with this is, the PSS B777 is not compatible with FSX. So how can the first waypoints be in FSX?
Point of order there GBO. Do you have a source for the claim that "they" just cherry picked waypoints on Zaharie's flight sim? (I presume it is the FBI you are referring to.) AFAIK this claim first came up in Florence de Changy's execrable book, but perhaps you've better evidence?

The flight sim data, if true, is pretty damning for the captain. I can't see a clear reason that the FBI would concoct evidence, but I CAN see why people would want to discredit it.
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Old 16th Dec 2022, 05:02
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Originally Posted by Capt Fathom
GBO. Why is there a gradual decompression? Are you saying an exploding crew oxygen cylinder blows only a small hole in the fuselage.
I suspect the theory extends not necessarily to an exploding bottle but to an overall system failure, possibly leading to an explosive loss of components but not an explosive decompression. As has been seen in aviation, the randomness of such a failure can manifest itself in any number of results from small and inconsequential to Aloha "cabriolet" or worse. A rupture of the pressure hull need only be large enough to exceed the ability of the system to control with closed outflow valves to lead to a gradual decompression. If as is stated the cabin altitude warning threshold altitude value is reset to 15,000ft then this gives ample opportunity for a human (especially a smoker) to be gradually overcome by hypoxia, especially if he's overwhelmed with automation failure and other technically complex and confusing system failures on top of a diversion.

The principle of Occam's Razor has been mentioned a few times. This principle is often misunderstood and misused by the ignorant. The principle is not intended in and of itself to rule out more complex theories with extreme prejudice. The principle is simply a preference in an approach for the more easily testable theories to be examined first.

The failure of a single light bulb once led to the loss of an L-1011. You could draw a straight line between the start and end. It is easily arguable that a single and fairly straightforward mechanical failure cascading into a series of secondary and HF failures leading to a hull loss is a much more simple theory than a conspiracy (or singular plan) to commit suicide, destroy an airliner and kill hundreds crew and passengers while following a weird but pre-determined flight path.

In fact it is fascinating that the same people rubbishing as conspiracy-theorists anyone on other threads making counter-claims of any sort to do with pandemic happenings are now conspiracy-theorising themselves. So why did he or they do it? We've heard all sorts of rumours, none substantiated; a conspiracy theory postulating a deliberate action needs development which hasn't been provided. Also, the flight sim game theory just doesn't stand up to scrutiny. Where's your tin hat? While you're at it, who was behind 9/11? Who killed JFK?

GBO's theory is definitely on the right track. GBO, where'd you get this theory of yours? Please post a link.
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Old 16th Dec 2022, 06:45
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Originally Posted by GBO
The SATCOM is powered by the left Main AC bus. With so many left systems down following an oxygen bottle rupture, conducting the Left Main AC bus checklist will repower SATCOM.
If the L Main AC bus lost power after a bottle rupture, then presumably it was caused by the L GCU and L BTB isolating the damaged bus, or by the L GCU and L BTB themselves being damaged. Either way, how would the ELEC AC BUS L checklist (which requires resets of the L GCU and L BTB) restore power, if the damage was still present?

But, if the aircraft slows to the ECON desc speed as it passes the Top Of Desc point to Banda Aceh, but maintains FL340 (everyoneís deceased), the fuel flow reduces to 6200kg/hr and then down to 5600kg/hr as weight reduces, the aircraft can remain airborne until arc 7, but ONLY IF both bleed air systems have failed since IGARI, and remained failed until 0019:29!
​​​​​​​How did you calculate these figures?
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