MH370 - "new" news

[GBO]

JustinHeywood

The report doesn’t mention any other manually waypoints, but one would assume there would be many considering the coordinates stored on the Volume Shadow Information (VSI) file are stored automatically whenever the computer is left idle for more than 15 minutes.

Again, the RMP report could not determine if the waypoints came from one or more files.

Maybe you could write to them and ask; what other waypoints did the RMP find, and what aircraft did they fly on the Captain’s simulator on 15Mar14, one day before the forensic analysis by CyberSecurity Malaysia.

[Lookleft]

​​​​​​​Running out of fuel after 7 hours is not usually associated with pilot suicide flights.
Pilot suicide flights are usually over quickly. eg GermanWings

Thats a very big assumption that the only way to commit suicide in an aeroplane is to point it at the ground. There was a time when the only way to commit a terrorist act on an aeroplane was to hijack it, get the pilot to land it and then make political demands. What better way to take yourself and a plane load of pax out than programming the FMC to fly you out into the Indian Ocean until the fuel runs out and no one knows where you are. As this whole thread is based on assumptions let me give you mine.

The Capt sent his FO out of the flight deck approaching the FIR boundary with Vietnam and turned the transponder off. He then turned left and flew along the FIR boundary until west of Penang. While this is happening he turns the packs off and goes onto oxygen. The FO tries to get into the flight deck but his entry is denied by the Captain. (shades of Germanwings). Within 30 minutes all the pax are unconscious and the only people who are alive are any crew members who have been using portable oxygen. The FO realises that the Captain is up to no good and tries to make a call on his phone. Once the aircraft is west of Malaysia the aircraft, on its programmed flight, turns to the southwest into the vast expanse of the Indian Ocean. At some point, possibly when there is no more frantic banging on the cockpit door, the Captain takes his oxygen mask off and eventually loses consciousness, knowing that there is no radar that can track him, and that his aircraft, and all on board, will never be found.

No remarkable technical contortions are required to make that hypothesis fit the facts as they are known.

[GBO]

dr dre

If the oxygen bottle has ruptured in cruise, resulting in extensive damage to the electronics bay and a gradual decompression event ensues, then the cabin altitude warning will NOT occur straight away, it would occur some time later. The cabin altitude starts to climb gradually. However, the crew will be bombarded with immediate failures, especially anything electrical and reliant on P105 & L AIMS eg 4/6 DU failed. They would be definitely overloaded mentally. Whilst they problem solve, it would be easy for the crew to be task fixated on a problem and miss the gradual decompression event. Considering both pilots were smokers, their lung capacity would be equivalent to a much higher altitude when the Cabin Altitude message finally appeared at 15000feet.

When the aircraft was near Penang, if someone programs a diversion to Banda Aceh via NILAM-SANOB the autopilot will follow that route and the aircraft will end in the southern Indian Ocean, without any human intervention, at 34S 93E.
All occupants may have been deceased as early as 1800Z due to hypoxia, 40minutes after the rupture.

[GBO]

Who programmed the diversion to Banda Aceh airport via NILAM and SANOB?

Either:
1. The Captain or FO suffering from hypoxia
2. A Flight Attendant on portable oxygen, such FA Tan Size Hiang who also owned a flight simulator at home.
3. A passenger on portable oxygen, such as the aviation engineer Mohd Khairul Amri Selamat.

[Lookleft]

GBO have you ever "programmed" a diversion on an FMC? Unless you know what you are doing and are mentally coherent then there are so many errors that are going to be made it will make the whole effort pointless. You are also suggesting that if it was not a crew member then a FA or an engineer could do it from the back of the console leaning over the thrust levers. Sorry to all the flight simmers out there but programming an FMC on Flight Sim is not the same as a professional pilot setting up an FMC after having done the appropriate type rating then line flying.

[birdspeed]

Although my version of events after a rupture of the O2 bottles differs from GBO’s, for example I think the crew are incapacitated within minutes. The autopilot has failed so any turns after the IGARI turn are explainable just to a randomly meandering aircraft.

The electrical failures are complex, and however hard we might try to explain what may have happened, in the end a damaged system will not behave in an easily explainable way.

But ultimately, with the location of the O2 bottles in the left side of the avionics bay, they do have the potential to affect all the systems we know stopped working, ACARS, COMMS, SATCOM, L TRANSPONDER, and then would also likely affect ELECTRICS, FLIGHT INSTRUMENTS, PITOT/STATIC inputs, AUTOPILOT/AUTOTHROTTLE, L AIMS, as well as cause a decompression.

[BuzzBox]

Originally Posted by GBO

If the oxygen bottle has ruptured in cruise, resulting in extensive damage to the electronics bay and a gradual decompression event ensues, then the cabin altitude warning will NOT occur straight away, it would occur some time later. The cabin altitude starts to climb gradually.

The following photos show the damage that was caused by the ruptured oxygen bottle in the QF30 case. Significant damage was caused in both directions along the axis of the bottle and the bottle itself created a large hole in the fuselage as it exited the aircraft. It is not credible that a ruptured crew bottle on a B777 would only cause significant damage in one direction, ie aft. Given the orientation of the bottles within the MEC, it's very likely the shutoff valve and other components at the head of the bottle would fly aft, and the main body of the bottle would fly forward, through the fuselage near the nose of the aircraft. How on earth could such damage result in a slow decompression? More divine intervention?

[Eclan]

Originally Posted by GBO

dr dre

If the oxygen bottle has ruptured in cruise, resulting in extensive damage to the electronics bay and a gradual decompression event ensues, then the cabin altitude warning will NOT occur straight away, it would occur some time later. The cabin altitude starts to climb gradually. However, the crew will be bombarded with immediate failures, especially anything electrical and reliant on P105 & L AIMS eg 4/6 DU failed. They would be definitely overloaded mentally. Whilst they problem solve, it would be easy for the crew to be task fixated on a problem and miss the gradual decompression event. Considering both pilots were smokers, their lung capacity would be equivalent to a much higher altitude when the Cabin Altitude message finally appeared at 15000feet.

I thought that's what I tried to explain. I'm surprised at the resistance to the simple logic of the technical and physiological aspects of that part of the theory.

[dr dre]

Originally Posted by GBO

dr dre

If the oxygen bottle has ruptured in cruise, resulting in extensive damage to the electronics bay and a gradual decompression event ensues, then the cabin altitude warning will NOT occur straight away, it would occur some time later. The cabin altitude starts to climb gradually. However, the crew will be bombarded with immediate failures, especially anything electrical and reliant on P105 & L AIMS eg 4/6 DU failed. They would be definitely overloaded mentally. Whilst they problem solve, it would be easy for the crew to be task fixated on a problem and miss the gradual decompression event. Considering both pilots were smokers, their lung capacity would be equivalent to a much higher altitude when the Cabin Altitude message finally appeared at 15000feet.​

So a bucketload of failures happened almost instantaneously, one of which is a transponder failure as the SSR information is lost. But almost instantaneously the aircraft turns back degrees to head to Penang. When real pilots have a complex system failure it isn’t realistic to think they’d turn instantaneously. But even moreso is within the next 10 minutes they make no attempt to make any form of contact, and make no attempt to start a descent towards Penang. This was apparently after only 10 minutes at lower than FL150 to not set off the Cabin Altitude Warning. So they’re now suffering from hypoxia to the point they can’t communicate or descend, even if he’s a smoker the FO is only in his 20s and should have fairly decent lung capacity. No evidence Captain was a smoker, and both pilots weren’t overweight.

When the aircraft was near Penang, if someone programs a diversion to Banda Aceh via NILAM-SANOB the autopilot will follow that route and the aircraft will end in the southern Indian Ocean, without any human intervention, at 34S 93E.
All occupants may have been deceased as early as 1800Z due to hypoxia, 40minutes after the rupture.

So the pilots have been so overwhelmed to by hypoxia they lost the thinking ability to remember to communicate or descend, but then 20 minutes they recover enough mental capacity to program the FMC to an obscure airport (Aceh) a relatively long way from Malaysia, that MH doesn’t fly to, ignoring closer and more obvious airports like Phuket, Medan or KL where MH does fly. And then they have enough mental capacity they program that diversion along an airway, that doesn’t even go to Aceh, it passes well north. So they had a catastrophic series of failures but still were kind enough to follow the airway rather than track direct?

​​​​And if you say “well they were hypoxic so their decisions wouldn’t make sense” there’s levels of hypoxia. You start to lose the ability to perform complex thinking tasks first, then simple tasks, then lose consciousness. Remembering to descend into an airport you want to divert to is a fairly simple task. Programming an FMC along a specific air route to an obscure airport far away from where you want to go is a complex task. They would’ve lost that cognitive function long before losing the ability to descend. And even then the progression of hypoxia isn’t that slow. Once hypoxia starts you’re not going to spend 30-60 minutes stumbling around like a drunken fool. The progression to unconsciousness will be fairly rapid.

That whole story comes across as someone who’s spent a long time on MS FS and 777 technical manuals trying to work out a technical way their theory could work, but hasn’t spent anytime flying an airliner operationally and knowing the operational considerations that a real airline pilot makes.

[dr dre]

Originally Posted by Lookleft

Sorry to all the flight simmers out there but programming an FMC on Flight Sim is not the same as a professional pilot setting up an FMC after having done the appropriate type rating then line flying.

Hear Hear.

I think there’s more than one FS expert on here who’s decided their countless hours of bedroom time is equivalent to flying a real airliner in an operational environment.

The good thing is their aviation exploits will remain limited to simulation games played in their pyjamas, and they’ll never get a chance to fly a real aircraft for reward. Or be part of an air crash investigation team.

[JustinHeywood]

Originally Posted by GBO

JustinHeywood

The report doesn’t mention any other manually waypoints, but one would assume there would be many considering the coordinates stored on the Volume Shadow Information (VSI) file are stored automatically whenever the computer is left idle for more than 15 minutes.

Again, the RMP report could not determine if the waypoints came from one or more files.

Maybe you could write to them and ask; what other waypoints did the RMP find, and what aircraft did they fly on the Captain’s simulator on 15Mar14, one day before the forensic analysis by CyberSecurity Malaysia.

Well no, I’m not going to write to them, I’m not the one making claims based on assumptions about the report.

I take it then that there is no support for the ‘cherry picked by the FBI’ assertion.

Another Zombie fact. Dead, but still finding life in conspiracy theories.

[BuzzBox]

Originally Posted by dr dre

So they’re now suffering from hypoxia to the point they can’t communicate or descend, even if he’s a smoker the FO is only in his 20s and should have fairly decent lung capacity. No evidence Captain was a smoker, and both pilots weren’t overweight.

In actual fact there is such evidence, contained in leaked documents from the RMP investigation.

That said, the theory has a number of gaping holes (pardon the pun).

[GBO]

dr dre

It seems you are a very experienced and competent pilot. Congratulations. It’s a shame that you weren’t the Captain on MH370.
So what would you do if faced with an oxygen bottle rupture at IGARI, which causes extensive damage to the P105 Left Wire Integration Panel and Left AIMS?

Where are you flying to?
Could you list all the failures and problems for us?
And how long do you need before you’re ready to land?

[dr dre]

Originally Posted by GBO

dr dre

It seems you are a very experienced and competent pilot. Congratulations. It’s a shame that you weren’t the Captain on MH370.
So what would you do if faced with an oxygen bottle rupture at IGARI, which causes extensive damage to the P105 Left Wire Integration Panel and Left AIMS?

Where are you flying to?
Could you list all the failures and problems for us?
And how long do you need before you’re ready to land?

You’re basically talking about an incident where a hypothetical failure has taken out an unknown number of systems.

No one can tell you exactly what they would do as it is very situation dependent but if a failure like that occurred that you seemed to think took out all left side avionics:

Fly the aircraft, maintain current course for several minutes while you assess the nature of the problem and how you will tackle it (continue on or divert to the best alternate which would be Penang). However the primary radar track showed the aircraft turned towards Penang about 30 seconds after the loss of transponder information. So basically a decision was made whilst the startle effect was still active. Which is unrealistic.

Next point you said they lost the left side avionics but should’ve still had right side VHF radios and FMC (to program a route to Aceh supposedly). But no time to make a quick radio call?

Next if they’re aiming for Penang they should’ve made a descent quite soon after the turn, within 10 minutes. Except they don’t. You say that’s because of hypoxia taking effect.

So from that point the story become ludicrous as consciousness deliberate actions are made well after that point that require more cognitive capability than a simple descent, which they wouldn’t have because of their supposed hypoxia which has already prevented them from descending.

The theory just doesn’t work in the real world.

[GBO]

Dr dre

Thanks for your reply.
Just to tidy up, the transponder failed during the turn at IGARI. ADSB showed the aircraft was correctly turning right to intercept the IGARI BITOD cleared route. The air turn back occurred 90seconds after the transponder ceased transmitting.

So how do you make a radio call with an inoperative AMU?
And how do you program a LNAV route to Penang without a valid FMC at that time?
And how did you overcome startle effect and assess that it wasn’t a bomb that went off, with an immediate urgency to find a suitable airport?
And you say that the most suitable airport is Penang, ie where MH370 flew to. So how do you propose to fly to Penang, manually towards the start of the ILS?
And what altitude and speed?
And how do you avoid flying along the Malay/Thai border?
And how do you know when to descend without VNAV?
And which checklist did you run first?
And how long do you need until you’re ready?
And what about the blank four screens in front of you, how did that effect you?
And what about the Left Autothrottle issue.
And what about the flight control, hydraulic, landing gear and electrical issue?
And the navigation, communication problems.
And how did you inform the passengers?
And how are you dealing with the overwhelming problems?
And have you lost any situational awareness?
And why do you feel euphoric?

[BuzzBox]

Originally Posted by GBO

And how do you program a LNAV route to Penang without a valid FMC at that time?

With the other FMC that has exactly the same data, and which would have automatically "taken over" in the event the previously active FMC failed. Read the manual.

And you say that the most suitable airport is Penang, ie where MH370 flew to. So how do you propose to fly to Penang, manually towards the start of the ILS?

Tune the VPG VOR and turn towards it would be a start.

And how do you know when to descend without VNAV?

The 3-times table works pretty well.

And which checklist did you run first?

Given there'd be a gaping hole and a rapid decompression, an immediate emergency descent while completing the CABIN ALTITUDE checklist would be pretty good places to start.

And how long do you need until you’re ready?

As long as it takes, after descending to a safe altitude.

And what about the Left Autothrottle issue.

What about it? The thrust levers can be operated manually.

And what about the flight control, hydraulic, landing gear and electrical issue?

Sort them out after descending to a safe altitude.

And the navigation, communication problems.

There are no navigation issues (see above) and there are procedures for loss of communication.

And how did you inform the passengers?

After descending to a safe altitude, open the cockpit door, tell the crew what's happening and tell them to alert the passengers.

And how are you dealing with the overwhelming problems?

As above.

And have you lost any situational awareness?

Nope.

And why do you feel euphoric?

Because of the adrenaline rush caused by the foregoing.

[GBO]

BuzzBox

Not happy with the premise, just change it!
The premise is a gradual decompression, not an explosive decompression.
You missed a lot of steps. Too bad, you’re euphoric because you are hypoxic. Fail.

[GBO]

It is interesting though, that all pilots questioned so far (BuzzBox, dr Dre) would divert to Penang airport following an oxygen bottle rupture ie the same route flown be MH370.

[BuzzBox]

Originally Posted by GBO

BuzzBox

Not happy with the premise, just change it!
The premise is a gradual decompression, not an explosive decompression.
You missed a lot of steps. Too bad, you’re euphoric because you are hypoxic. Fail.

Not happy with YOUR premise either, so I'm not going to change mine.

As for steps missed:

So how do you make a radio call with an inoperative AMU?

You can't, so you deal with the situation as best you can. If you need to descend ASAP and divert because of a serious emergency, then do it.

And how did you overcome startle effect and assess that it wasn’t a bomb that went off, with an immediate urgency to find a suitable airport?

I'd say a ruptured oxygen bottle would have just as much "immediate urgency to find a suitable airport" as a bomb, wouldn't you? You'd deal with it the same way as any other - assess what's happened and the associated failures, and prioritise anything that needs immediate action, like an emergency descent to a safe altitude. Most other things can wait until the aircraft is stabilised and safe.

And what altitude and speed?

How about 10,000 ft and the indicated speed you were previously doing, or less? Any faster would risk making any structural damage worse.

And how do you avoid flying along the Malay/Thai border?

Who cares?

And what about the blank four screens in front of you, how did that effect you?

Some information is obviously missing, but there are two remaining screens with some degree of reversion likely available, plus the standby instruments. All is not lost.

Did I miss any this time?

​​​​​​​It is interesting though, that all pilots questioned so far (BuzzBox, dr Dre) would divert to Penang airport following an oxygen bottle rupture ie the same route flown be MH370.

Yep, diverting to the nearest suitable airport is pretty much a given and shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Where they would NOT go is Banda Aceh.

[Dora-9]

would divert to Penang airport

Really? We'd never know exactly what they'd be thinking in this situation (if indeed this was the situation), but I reckon there's more than a 50% chance that they'd return to KL.