Qantas...Post COVID

[jrfsp]

Further capacity at this point only further dilutes yields (particularly with a lack corporate demand at the moment) and is certainly not sustainable. The grab at market share will end with a casualty.

[Keg]

Originally Posted by jrfsp

The grab at market share will end with a casualty.

Probably. Of Qantas, Rex, Virgin and Jetstar who are you putting your money on it to be?

[WillieTheWimp]

Originally Posted by Keg

Probably. Of Qantas, Rex, Virgin and Jetstar who are you putting your money on it to be?

I think VA’s mouth is writing cheques its fleet can’t cash and Rex plans to bring a knife to a gunfight.

[Lookleft]

But Rex is using a plastic knife that you get in kiddie pirate costumes.

[blubak]

Originally Posted by Climb150

I would like to share your enthusiasm but I doubt Australians would be ok with people coming into Australia without quarantine regardless of a negative CoVID test.

Even with the vaccine, some people will refuse to take it and you will still get very small outbreaks in the community. People will still get sick and some will dye.

I think we just want as much care as possible when borders open again,everybody wants to see money being spent by tourists & as many people back at work as possible.
The anti-vaccers will always be around,they are anti everything(most of them anyway) so in reality not much notice will be taken of them.
As i see it,as long as the majority are aware of what is required to keep us all safe,the rest shpuld fall into place.

[Climb150]

Originally Posted by blubak

I think we just want as much care as possible when borders open again,everybody wants to see money being spent by tourists & as many people back at work as possible.
The anti-vaccers will always be around,they are anti everything(most of them anyway) so in reality not much notice will be taken of them.
As i see it,as long as the majority are aware of what is required to keep us all safe,the rest shpuld fall into place.

The govt will run focus groups to decide which decision gets them another term in office. That is the path they will take.

[ExtraShot]

The signs elsewhere are slowly showing positives also...


https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/202...ed-get-flight/

[aviation_enthus]

Originally Posted by jrfsp

Further capacity at this point only further dilutes yields (particularly with a lack corporate demand at the moment) and is certainly not sustainable. The grab at market share will end with a casualty.

To early to call “the weakest link”.

But given how the last capacity war ended, I’d say it might also comes down to who blinks first....

If QF have taken on a lot of debt through COVID and then lose money again, they’ll have to call it quits on the “line in the sand” eventually (but they’re still stronger than Rex/VA).

If VA are aggressive and Bain etc want see results that convince them to tip in more cash, they might end up back in a sustainable position. But last time around, they ran out of cash before QF.

Rex are the more unknown IMHO. They have a decent war chest for now and (arguably) lower costs (wages and lease fees) for their small fleet. They also have a large regional network to generate cash to help with the current aggressive expansion. Buuuuuuttt, how long will their cash last and will the new investors (PAG) be willing to put more in?

[SHVC]

Originally Posted by aviation_enthus

To early to call “the weakest link”.

But given how the last capacity war ended, I’d say it might also comes down to who blinks first....

If QF have taken on a lot of debt through COVID and then lose money again, they’ll have to call it quits on the “line in the sand” eventually (but they’re still stronger than Rex/VA).

If VA are aggressive and Bain etc want see results that convince them to tip in more cash, they might end up back in a sustainable position. But last time around, they ran out of cash before QF.

Rex are the more unknown IMHO. They have a decent war chest for now and (arguably) lower costs (wages and lease fees) for their small fleet. They also have a large regional network to generate cash to help with the current aggressive expansion. Buuuuuuttt, how long will their cash last and will the new investors (PAG) be willing to put more in?

Expansion you mean the 737? Didn't Sharpie say somewhere that the regional and jet are completely separate entity's? wouldn't want to raise eyebrows given all the government handouts they received which was more than QF and VA got to keep the turbo prop operation viable.

The predatory Sydney Canberra flights they plan to launch with their SAABs is laughable, this route is mostly business and politicians which neither will never travel on a SAAB unless they're going to Bourke and the RAAF jets are all broken.

[Wingspar]

Originally Posted by Fujiroll76

It’s been confirmed that the Oct 2021 ramp up will include 40% of pre COVID levels, increasing to 70% in the following 12 months to Oct 2022. This indicates the 787/330 will be at 100% capacity with the remaining 30% set aside for the potential 380 return 12 months later (Nov 2023)

insert a 20% reduction in flight crew who took VR / ER who won’t be returning.
insert the LH crew who are starting to transition to SH as of next BP

Is it just me or should some serious recruitment, be at the very least being discussed at the round table...
12% of the list are greater than 60 years as it stands today..most are unlikely to be around come 350 ULR ops.

Theres cause for optimism.

I think there are good signs for A380 crew too?

If the 787/A330 flying comes back as suggested then there will have to be more training. That would mean advertised slots. That would indicate useful work? A380 crew could bid for them, even Captains could use their golden bid to bid back at the company’s discretion. Most would have the seniority to be awarded a slot.

If the company refuse then how can the company argue ‘no useful work’ and continue to stand A380 down?

[Keg]

Will an A380 pilot want to burn a ‘bid back’ to get back to flying 12 months earlier? The consequence is they can’t return to the A380 and may not be able to use their bid back on the 737 approaching 65.

[Wingspar]

It’s a personal thing I suppose?

If they can last another two years on Annual leave then that’s great!

[ScepticalOptomist]

Originally Posted by Keg

Will an A380 pilot want to burn a ‘bid back’ to get back to flying 12 months earlier? The consequence is they can’t return to the A380 and may not be able to use their bid back on the 737 approaching 65.

I’d say most would burn it in a heartbeat!

[The The]

There is no way International flights (above current repatriation flight) will be ramping up in October. This was all predicated on having the vaccine rollout completed by end October. The vaccine rollout is proving a dismal failure (already 3.4m doses behind planned) and the latest blood clot scare campaign will put things behind even more. More and more people will wait for the Pfizer or Moderna of which Australia cannot get anywhere near enough, probably for years. I think there will be millions of doses of Astrazeneca left on the shelves, with millions content forgo the vaccine and just keep international borders shut.

For states like WA, they'll be lucky to have free international travel before 2023.

My best guess is that by October, we might have a fairly reliable Tasman bubble at best and hopefully more sensible state border controls.

[lc_461]

Originally Posted by The The

For states like WA, they'll be lucky to have free international travel before 2023.

Raises the point - can 'militant' states like WA go against the Commonwealth in the opening of their federal border? Eg Commonwealth removes restrictions on international travel, can WA refuse to allow entry into PER via that route?

[MelbourneFlyer]

Originally Posted by Fujiroll76

It’s been confirmed that the Oct 2021 ramp up will include 40% of pre COVID levels, increasing to 70% in the following 12 months to Oct 2022. This indicates the 787/330 will be at 100% capacity with the remaining 30% set aside for the potential 380 return 12 months later (Nov 2023)

Confirmed where and by whom? If you're talking about anything Qantas has officially announced, October 2021 sees the nomination and very subject-to-reality return of almost all international flights bar some cities and bar the A380s, which would seem to represent more than 40% of capacity, or are you talking about estimated demand, ie not the number of seats flying but the number of bums on seats?

[Fujiroll76]

Originally Posted by MelbourneFlyer

Confirmed where and by whom? If you're talking about anything Qantas has officially announced, October 2021 sees the nomination and very subject-to-reality return of almost all international flights bar some cities and bar the A380s, which would seem to represent more than 40% of capacity, or are you talking about estimated demand, ie not the number of seats flying but the number of bums on seats?

Andrew David a few town halls ago. This is the realistic schedule come October. Ie services flown not capacity expected.

[Australopithecus]

I think that the public and their politicians will now only accept a zero covid risk. Unless the Federal government steps in with a compulsory vaccination program, 14 day quarantines are going to be with us for a very long time. If there isn’t a very high proportion of vaccinated population then we will continue to have sporadic cases and sporadic shutdowns and lock-outs. That will kill any demand for much flying across any borders, domestic included.

[AerialPerspective]

Originally Posted by Climb150

I would like to share your enthusiasm but I doubt Australians would be ok with people coming into Australia without quarantine regardless of a negative CoVID test.

Even with the vaccine, some people will refuse to take it and you will still get very small outbreaks in the community. People will still get sick and some will dye.

What colour do you think they will dye????

[AerialPerspective]

Originally Posted by lc_461

Raises the point - can 'militant' states like WA go against the Commonwealth in the opening of their federal border? Eg Commonwealth removes restrictions on international travel, can WA refuse to allow entry into PER via that route?

Yes. s92 of the Constitution guarantees free trade and freedom of movement between the States - however, the same provision exists in the United States' Constitution on which ours is heavily based (because there were no other notionally English speaking federations around at the time except the USA) as does another provision taken from the US Constitution, that being that the Commonwealth shall ensure that every State gives "full faith and credit" to the laws, acts and regulations and public records of every other State".

I believe the 'full faith and credit' clause (s118) as it is called, means that every other State and the Commonwealth must accept and give full faith and credit to acts, laws and regulations that a State adopts in the interests, in this case, of public health which is well within the purview of State powers.

This is why Clive was never going to win his stupid case, because if WA passed a law imposing a tariff on movement of persons and goods into WA, then that would be a clear breach of s92 and unconstitutional because trade and commerce is not a State power as the Constitution bars any interference with it. BUT, s118 is what allows the State(s) to impose entry restrictions based on laws and regulations that they have the Constitutional power to enact and enforce.

Long explanation I know but that's my understanding of why the States can continue to impose these restrictions.

*EDIT*

I just re-read your question - interesting - but I think the answer is still yes. WA refused to let a ship dock at Fremantle at the beginning of the crisis. I believe refusal of landing would come within the State's rights - it is probably one for a constitutional expert though because external affairs is a Commonwealth responsibility which I would suggest includes the regulation of shipping etc (as aviation in the sense of powered flight didn't exist when the constitution was written). The Commonwealth has the power to regulate and make laws for emigration, immigration and - I think it actually says - "the naturalisation of aliens". But I would think that just means they can make laws for it - it doesn't mean they can force a State to accept a vessel if they don't want to - just as they can't force WA, SA and Queensland to all adopt Standard Gauge for all their railways.