Originally Posted by
jrfsp
Further capacity at this point only further dilutes yields (particularly with a lack corporate demand at the moment) and is certainly not sustainable. The grab at market share will end with a casualty.
To early to call “the weakest link”.
But given how the last capacity war ended, I’d say it might also comes down to who blinks first....
If QF have taken on a lot of debt through COVID and then lose money again, they’ll have to call it quits on the “line in the sand” eventually (but they’re still stronger than Rex/VA).
If VA are aggressive and Bain etc want see results that convince them to tip in more cash, they might end up back in a sustainable position. But last time around, they ran out of cash before QF.
Rex are the more unknown IMHO. They have a decent war chest for now and (arguably) lower costs (wages and lease fees) for their small fleet. They also have a large regional network to generate cash to help with the current aggressive expansion. Buuuuuuttt, how long will their cash last and will the new investors (PAG) be willing to put more in?