Qantas...Post COVID

[dr dre]

Originally Posted by TimmyTee

Hopefully with inter-Europe and Europe-USA travel picking up, more and more aussies become jealous/envious and change their tune on the old “I’m good with keeping the borders closed”.

You would think so. But Australian media isn’t interested in showing footage of vaccinated holidaymakers suntanning on the beaches of Spain or Greece. Instead we’ll get footage of bodies or filthy hospitals in India or Africa or other third world countries as a reason why, even with vaccination, we need the borders closed to be kept safe and to be reminded that “Australia is the envy of the world”.....

[Fonz121]

The mass exodus has begun. 65,000 departures in April alone is pretty huge compared to the inbound numbers. We'll lose 5% of our population before the year is out. That's a lot of tax revenue walking out the door. Graph below is residents returning x1000.

**EDIT** The inbound numbers for April were a lot higher as well at 55'000ish**

Departures increasing

Since March last year, 156,507 Australian citizens and permanent residents were given exemptions to leave Australia out of 329,180 who made requests, according to the Australian Border Force.

A total of 84,031 requests from Australian citizens and permanent residents to leave Australia were denied.

In April, there were 65,100 departures from Australia, the highest monthly figure since the pandemic began, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Among those leaving are long-term skilled migrants, which economic policy program director at the Grattan Institute Brendan Coates says Australia can't afford to lose.





https://www.sbs.com.au/news/bye-bye-...nes%20overseas.

[Keg]

Originally Posted by halfmoon

Seriously though, does anyone actually really believe the borders will open again?

not going to happen open! Sorry!

There's way too much fear and paranoia

They’ll open. Just not by Christmas. More likely by about this time next year and in a staged way. Whether demand returns quickly is another thing entirely.

[Potsie Weber]

Originally Posted by Keg

They’ll open. Just not by Christmas. More likely by about this time next year and in a staged way. Whether demand returns quickly is another thing entirely.

I expect by this time next year, Victoria will be in its 10th lockdown, the feds will still be negotiating with the states over dedicated quarantine facilities, the premiers will continue keeping the population in fear and under emergency powers, vaccinations will have stubbornly stalled at around 60%, not enough to reach herd immunity and far too risky to open the borders.

[Keg]

I hope we end up closer to my prediction than yours Potsie but I certainly see your version of events of being the other side of the same coin!

If there is one thing the last 15 months have taught us is that it doesn’t matter how stupid we think the decisions being made are, they always find a deeper degree of ‘stupid’ to go to.

[MelbourneFlyer]

https://www.executivetraveller.com/n...sydney-flights

While Qantas' Project Sunrise is intended to connect Australia's east coast capitals to London, New York and Paris with non-stop flights, the NSW Government has requested the 18-20 hour treks run exclusively from Sydney for the first five years as part of a secret $50 million bid to keep the airline based in Sydney.
This was among seven conditions attached to the offer made by in an attempt to win a bidding war between New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland for the location of Qantas' headquarters.

[neville_nobody]

I hope we end up closer to my prediction than yours Potsie but I certainly see your version of events of being the other side of the same coin!

If there is one thing the last 15 months have taught us is that it doesn’t matter how stupid we think the decisions being made are, they always find a deeper degree of ‘stupid’ to go to.

That's because many of the State Governments decisions are driven by ideological thinking rather than the best decision. The question you have to ask is why are the States going to change their policies?

The mass exodus has begun. 65,000 departures in April alone is pretty huge compared to the inbound numbers. We'll lose 5% of our population before the year is out. That's a lot of tax revenue walking out the door. Graph below is residents returning x1000.

Not to mention that it is also inflationary, drives a labour crisis and it isn't really a State problem but a Federal one because the State Governments don't collect income tax.

[jrfsp]

Originally Posted by neville_nobody

That's because many of the State Governments decisions are driven by ideological thinking rather than the best decision. The question you have to ask is why are the States going to change their policies?



Not to mention that it is also inflationary, drives a labour crisis and it isn't really a State problem but a Federal one because the State Governments don't collect income tax.

Considering private sector wage growth had been at an all time low, a labour shortage might be viewed as a good thing by a significant portion of the general public.

[Wingspar]

Originally Posted by MelbourneFlyer

https://www.executivetraveller.com/n...sydney-flights

“…the NSW Government has requested the 18-20 hour treks run exclusively from Sydney for the first five years…”

Interesting in that the business case has them operating out of Melbourne and Brisbane too!

[neville_nobody]

Originally Posted by jrfsp

Considering private sector wage growth had been at an all time low, a labour shortage might be viewed as a good thing by a significant portion of the general public.

It doesn't work as that pay rise is eaten by higher prices. You also run into a supply shortage of goods etc. Especially for those on the lower end of the wage spectrum the pay rise won't cover the increase in the cost of living.

[jrfsp]

Originally Posted by neville_nobody

It doesn't work as that pay rise is eaten by higher prices. You also run into a supply shortage of goods etc. Especially for those on the lower end of the wage spectrum the pay rise won't cover the increase in the cost of living.

The cost of living growth has been outstripping wage growth for years, for once companies might actually have to offer pay increase instead of importing cheaper labour.

[geeup]

There will be no significant change til after the federal election.

Governments plan for COVID. Win another term and so it out from there….

[Thumb War]

Originally Posted by geeup

There will be no significant change til after the federal election.

Governments plan for COVID. Win another term and so it out from there….

Sadly I think you are spot on. So the question now becomes - when will the election be held?

[SHVC]

When the Miss H saga is far enough in the back of the kind of Joe public.

[dr dre]

Originally Posted by Thumb War

Sadly I think you are spot on. So the question now becomes - when will the election be held?

Constitutionally between August 2021 and May 2022.

It’s too close to call at the moment, so the government will probably want to stretch it out as along as possible to gain a bit more support and for voters to forget about the bungled vaccine rollout and other scandals.

It was strongly rumoured to be Oct/Nov this year but with the bungled rollout? Depends on how the next few months go. The government will still get a bit of a lift from Australians remembering how bad it was overseas last year and how we were relatively alright, but that still fade.

My thought is that they’ll keep the borders shut, deliver an election budget, tell Australians we’re the “envy of the world”, and the media assists with lots of pictures of unvaccinated third world countries and none of open vaccinated countries.

[Telfer86]

This isn't looking good
How many more billions will Mr Joyce demand from the Govt to keep afloat
He recently got $1.2 Billion didn't he ?

Difficult to see why the QF LH should be supported with tax-payer dollars

Remarkable how you can be extremely critical of other Australian airlines whilst demanding a billion plus in free cash

The Worlds greatest Airline CEO - QF have lost $1.8B since he has been there

The QF Hubris is all just a bit OTP , How about someone like the kind of guys AirNZ used to have (or still have as CEO)

A laid back local person , the shrieking buzzword dialogue can get a bit much

[Torukmacto]

Australians have spoken by refusing a vaccination they don’t need an overseas airline .

[SHVC]

Thats right. Why have an international airline when ppl don't want to travel., oh well what will AJ do now?

[galdian]

Originally Posted by SHVC

Thats right. Why have an international airline when ppl don't want to travel., oh well what will AJ do now?

Early retirement to spend more time with the family??

[Foxxster]

Originally Posted by SHVC

Thats right. Why have an international airline when ppl don't want to travel., oh well what will AJ do now?

I can’t imagine there is much incentive for him to stay. Those multi million dollar bonuses are dependent on metrics like share price which aren’t going to be able to be met for several years at least. Getting by on mere millions a year base pay versus 15 or 20 million a year with bonuses would wear pretty thin. We’ve all been there… lol.