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REX to transition to ATRs, start domestic jet ops

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REX to transition to ATRs, start domestic jet ops

Old 26th Jan 2021, 07:29
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Originally Posted by C441
A family friend experienced this in Normanton about 18 months ago. After driving 4 or 5 hours from a cattle property, he arrived comfortably before the required time to see a Rex Saab departing. On check-in he was told that the departing aircraft was indeed his flight. It had departed ahead of schedule as they had a u/s aircraft and the aircraft was needed back at the base to replace it. Rex very kindly offered to put him up at the Normanton Hotel for the (Friday) night; quite an experience for someone who'd only lived in Australia for a few years!

Whilst a one-off event, this may explain one method Rex use to ensure on-time performance!
Personally I find this story hard to believe and probably a bit one sided....

The flights through Normanton are part of the QLD Govt contracted routes so it’s basically impossible to leave early.

I’d guess what actually happened is the aircraft took off before scheduled departure but AFTER checkin had closed, which is 30 min before departure. Checkin closure time is the time to be aware of, not departure time.... Having spent plenty of time in the gulf and cape, pax arriving after checkin closes was a common theme.
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Old 26th Jan 2021, 07:32
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Originally Posted by Ragnor
90% OTP is easy on a 30 seat SAAB departing country outports with no security where they usually only have about 15 pax on board.
Biggest bases are Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide. Therefore every second leg is out of a capital city airport, from remote stands, subject to ATC delays, etc. Plus Sydney is by far the biggest network yet they still manage to maintain high OTP....

Somehow I think they’ll be ok dealing with a SYD-MEL schedule. Despite your obvious wish to see them fail...
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Old 26th Jan 2021, 07:42
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I don't wish them to fail.....They will fail at the jet side of it. Rex is a company propped up by gov subsidies take those away their network will be cut in half. With less than half filled SAABs on the remaining, but, lucky the SAAB runs on the smell of an oily rag and in two or so yrs when things pick up, they wont have a 73 pilot to stand on due to their low wages which is backed up by Sharpie 10% less than JQ statment they will head off back to VA or where is paying better.
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Old 26th Jan 2021, 08:54
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The problem a domestic airline faces in this country is the bookends of cost vs demand. Sounds obvious but the demand was largely a manufactured demand and not organic. The demand outgrew any organic growth under the guise of a “cheap and cheerful” offering that was available to the aspirational. Competition drove the (self destructive) cost reduction monoculture that drives all big business. Now the airlines live in a cost driven version of coffin corner where they can’t go cheaper, because the system is already at breaking point, and they can’t go more expensive because demand suffers, either way revenue reduces.

QF have the critical mass to survive, the other two may have deep pockets, but they are also heavily backed by investors who will cut and run if the milk looks like going sour. It will be QF and whoever blinks second, and no one else. The interesting thing to watch will be how long Bain and Miss Jayne spend trying to be smarter than everyone else. Rex could prevail if they are focused on running an air transport operation and not a harbour for cheap labour.
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Old 26th Jan 2021, 10:05
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Wait and see

Despite some of the negative and clearly biased comments on here, the next 2 years or so will be interesting to watch in Aus aviation (and not clear cut).

Rex moving into jet ops has only one clear comparison in Aus history, Impulse Airlines. Even then this is not a particularly valid comparison due to the size of their respective regional networks being completely different (13- Beech 1900’s VS 60 Saab 340’s). Any other comparison to Tiger or “Australia can only handle two domestic airlines” is not particularly useful in working out who will win the QF/VA/Rex battle to come.

QF will clearly still exist. They hold the dominant market position and have generally had deeper pockets.

VA being owned by private capital with some previous airline experience would have a good shot in any 2 way fight. But now Rex has turned up, the dynamics have changed. Both QF and Rex have good regional networks, this is the major weakness for VA. VA also needs to get their culture under control as far as spending $$$ go. They haven’t made money for a long time, so getting all the “little” things under control could take a while.

Despite some of the comments on here, Rex is not held up by government subsidies. QLD subsidise SOME of the regulated routes. Yes a large part of the Rex network is a monopoly. But to this I’d argue the last 10 years has shown a regional monopoly doesn’t guarantee success (Skytrans, Brindabella, Vincent Aviation). Even Sharp Airlines has reduced most of their “monopoly” RPT routes.

Rex has a management and part owner that has been in the game since 2002. They’ve consistently made money in a tough section of the industry. They are likely to have lower costs than Jetstar (aircraft leases, crew salaries). They already have ground staff, HQ support, engineering, even a paint hangar at Wagga. Make no mistake, Rex will be a tough competitor to VA and QF.

Besides all that, what’s the end game for Rex? If they start making good cashflow with 10 or so 737’s, why would they keep expanding into more marginal routes? Their strong point is the feed from their regional network and feeding traffic back into it. Even on the regional network, they tend to focus effort on expansion into profitable areas (note the lack of follow up expansion into FNQ or QF dominated routes in NSW).

I’ll reserve my judgement on who will “win”.

Hopefully everyone does.
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Old 26th Jan 2021, 10:08
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Originally Posted by aviation_enthus
Biggest bases are Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide. Therefore every second leg is out of a capital city airport, from remote stands, subject to ATC delays, etc. Plus Sydney is by far the biggest network yet they still manage to maintain high OTP....

Somehow I think they’ll be ok dealing with a SYD-MEL schedule. Despite your obvious wish to see them fail...
Virgin and QF can manage the older NGs by swapping out with others if they go AOG. They have room in the schedule when these things happen, most of the time. Which in turn maintains some form of customer reliability. Rex, like Tiger won’t have that ability. Which is why Tiger Management decided to move away from the old NGs and stick to conversions 10 years and younger.

How long can these NGs go on for? Boeing reckons 25 years until they will start looking at converting to freighters. They are on the home stretch right now. Looking at engineering papers, these early 00 builds, I think another 5 years is all they have left.
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Old 26th Jan 2021, 10:54
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Originally Posted by wheels_down
Virgin and QF can manage the older NGs by swapping out with others if they go AOG. They have room in the schedule when these things happen, most of the time. Which in turn maintains some form of customer reliability. Rex, like Tiger won’t have that ability. Which is why Tiger Management decided to move away from the old NGs and stick to conversions 10 years and younger.

How long can these NGs go on for? Boeing reckons 25 years until they will start looking at converting to freighters. They are on the home stretch right now. Looking at engineering papers, these early 00 builds, I think another 5 years is all they have left.
I really don't understand what you're on about regards conversions - means nothing in context of the discussion.

You're saying Tiger Management EVER had the opportunity to cherry pick the VA737 fleet and logically take from the newest builds decreasing - yeah, nah. Take what you're given, shut up and be grateful more the reality.
Rex are leasing, not buying, the NG's in a depressed market, if they have 5 years left of "good life" fine, if the domestic situation isn't sorted out within 3 years max I'd be amazed, reckon 18-24 months a more realistic - and generous - sorting timeframe.

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Old 26th Jan 2021, 20:20
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Originally Posted by Ragnor
Their OTP will also depend on their turn around times VA and QF usually good large portion of that would relate to longer turn around times 40+ minutes and less punters 160 odd with business class and plenty of ground staff to help out.

Plenty of ground staff. What a laugh.
QF are currently getting just about everyone landslide off property but there will a phone number for the punters. Flight attendants already do most of the boarding pass scanning (now 4 of them on board). The ones running jet bridges are stretched as is. Your “plenty of staff” is 2 people at the airside service desk.

Add in outsourcing too with now one less person in each ramp team. Cleaners certainly won’t be ready and waiting at the plane anymore.

QF is going to kiss goodbye any hopes of hitting 35 minute turnarounds should they become necessary.

Wasn’t VA having issues with U/S staff and cancellations only a few weeks?

Absurd to think Rex won’t be able to match the piss poor performance of the incumbents.
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Old 26th Jan 2021, 20:22
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Does anyone know if the REX Australia Day flypast took place? I saw nothing in the media about it.
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Old 26th Jan 2021, 21:05
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Personally I find this story hard to believe and probably a bit one sided....
The flights through Normanton are part of the QLD Govt contracted routes so it’s basically impossible to leave early.
I’d guess what actually happened is the aircraft took off before scheduled departure but AFTER checkin had closed, which is 30 min before departure. Checkin closure time is the time to be aware of, not departure time.... Having spent plenty of time in the gulf and cape, pax arriving after checkin closes was a common theme.
No, it happened exactly as described. He arrived at Normanton airport well before the 30 minute check-in requirement. Apparently the flight had only a few pax onboard, who had already checked in so a decision was made to leave him behind.

To Rex's credit, they apologised profusely, including to the contractor (a large contributor to Rex's revenue) who'd paid for his flight, but that doesn't alter the detail of what happened.

Personally, despite being a recently retired Qantas staff member, I have no bias against Rex. Good on them for having a crack and employing some of our colleagues who otherwise may struggle without any support after March.
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Old 27th Jan 2021, 02:18
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It'll be a quick way to burn through $150m.
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Old 27th Jan 2021, 03:28
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Originally Posted by C441
A family friend experienced this in Normanton about 18 months ago. After driving 4 or 5 hours from a cattle property, he arrived comfortably before the required time to see a Rex Saab departing. On check-in he was told that the departing aircraft was indeed his flight. It had departed ahead of schedule as they had a u/s aircraft and the aircraft was needed back at the base to replace it. Rex very kindly offered to put him up at the Normanton Hotel for the (Friday) night; quite an experience for someone who'd only lived in Australia for a few years!

Whilst a one-off event, this may explain one method Rex use to ensure on-time performance!
Originally Posted by Green.Dot
Brilliant- depart 60 mins early to make up for 3 x 20 min late departures. OTP 100% These guys are going to kill it with Maggots.
Something people tend to forget is that the KPI is "on time performance"... not dont be late performance. If the flight left signifigantly early then it would still impact negatively on their OTP (From memory the requirement is the flight must depart within 15 minutes of the scheduled time)
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Old 27th Jan 2021, 05:15
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Originally Posted by Mark Altstar
Does anyone know if the REX Australia Day flypast took place? I saw nothing in the media about it.
Yes, there was a little article in the Australian, VA and QF both made comments about it.
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Old 27th Jan 2021, 09:07
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Originally Posted by aviation_enthus

Rex moving into jet ops has only one clear comparison in Aus history, Impulse Airlines. Even then this is not a particularly valid comparison due to the size of their respective regional networks being completely different (13- Beech 1900’s VS 60 Saab 340’s). Any other comparison to Tiger or “Australia can only handle two domestic airlines” is not particularly useful in working out who will win the QF/VA/Rex battle to come.......Despite some of the comments on here, Rex is not held up by government subsidies. QLD subsidise SOME of the regulated routes.
Your obviously too young to remember East West!

BTW Rex’s QLD network is a small part of their ops, and ALL of the regulated routes are subsidised via the tender or via the locals fare scheme which also covers unregulated routes. Passenger revenue in 2020 was $200M, government subsidies $60M
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Old 27th Jan 2021, 16:28
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Originally Posted by aviation_enthus
Despite some of the negative and clearly biased comments on here, the next 2 years or so will be interesting to watch in Aus Aviation...
Urrgh... Mngt

Originally Posted by aviation_enthus
They already have ground staff, HQ support, engineering, even a paint hangar at Wagga. Make no mistake, Rex will be a tough competitor to VA and QF.
"Don't call Wagga-Wagga Wagga" springs to mind
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Old 27th Jan 2021, 18:29
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Well, you wouldn't call Woy-Woy Woy
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Old 9th Feb 2021, 21:15
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.....and so it starts.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/n...s-class-at-199


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Old 9th Feb 2021, 22:34
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Very aggressive pricing. Says to me they aren’t selling as many tickets as anticipated.

A massive pain for QF and VA all the same. The war may be shorter than we think.
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Old 9th Feb 2021, 22:37
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Originally Posted by Green.Dot
Very aggressive pricing. Says to me they aren’t selling as many tickets as anticipated.

A massive pain for QF and VA all the same. The war may be shorter than we think.
Just like the same aggressive pricing on their regional network.
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Old 9th Feb 2021, 22:57
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Holy Snap, that's Compass Airlines stuff
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