The problem a domestic airline faces in this country is the bookends of cost vs demand. Sounds obvious but the demand was largely a manufactured demand and not organic. The demand outgrew any organic growth under the guise of a “cheap and cheerful” offering that was available to the aspirational. Competition drove the (self destructive) cost reduction monoculture that drives all big business. Now the airlines live in a cost driven version of coffin corner where they can’t go cheaper, because the system is already at breaking point, and they can’t go more expensive because demand suffers, either way revenue reduces.
QF have the critical mass to survive, the other two may have deep pockets, but they are also heavily backed by investors who will cut and run if the milk looks like going sour. It will be QF and whoever blinks second, and no one else. The interesting thing to watch will be how long Bain and Miss Jayne spend trying to be smarter than everyone else. Rex could prevail if they are focused on running an air transport operation and not a harbour for cheap labour.