Wait and see
Despite some of the negative and clearly biased comments on here, the next 2 years or so will be interesting to watch in Aus aviation (and not clear cut).
Rex moving into jet ops has only one clear comparison in Aus history, Impulse Airlines. Even then this is not a particularly valid comparison due to the size of their respective regional networks being completely different (13- Beech 1900’s VS 60 Saab 340’s). Any other comparison to Tiger or “Australia can only handle two domestic airlines” is not particularly useful in working out who will win the QF/VA/Rex battle to come.
QF will clearly still exist. They hold the dominant market position and have generally had deeper pockets.
VA being owned by private capital with some previous airline experience would have a good shot in any 2 way fight. But now Rex has turned up, the dynamics have changed. Both QF and Rex have good regional networks, this is the major weakness for VA. VA also needs to get their culture under control as far as spending $$$ go. They haven’t made money for a long time, so getting all the “little” things under control could take a while.
Despite some of the comments on here, Rex is not held up by government subsidies. QLD subsidise SOME of the regulated routes. Yes a large part of the Rex network is a monopoly. But to this I’d argue the last 10 years has shown a regional monopoly doesn’t guarantee success (Skytrans, Brindabella, Vincent Aviation). Even Sharp Airlines has reduced most of their “monopoly” RPT routes.
Rex has a management and part owner that has been in the game since 2002. They’ve consistently made money in a tough section of the industry. They are likely to have lower costs than Jetstar (aircraft leases, crew salaries). They already have ground staff, HQ support, engineering, even a paint hangar at Wagga. Make no mistake, Rex will be a tough competitor to VA and QF.
Besides all that, what’s the end game for Rex? If they start making good cashflow with 10 or so 737’s, why would they keep expanding into more marginal routes? Their strong point is the feed from their regional network and feeding traffic back into it. Even on the regional network, they tend to focus effort on expansion into profitable areas (note the lack of follow up expansion into FNQ or QF dominated routes in NSW).
I’ll reserve my judgement on who will “win”.
Hopefully everyone does.