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Old 12th Jul 2021, 02:08
  #5821 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Sunshine Coast
Posts: 573
Originally Posted by Lead Balloon View Post
So what if it's 'difficult' to cost?

Are you suggesting that because it's 'difficult' to cost, the curtailment of liberties and other intangible consequences of lockdowns should just be valued at zero?

Might it? You're just speculating.

That's my point: We shouldn't be speculating.

Ummm. I'm pretty sure I know the correct answer to that one. Is it 'yes'?

There you go again: "might" there be "roughly equivalent" costs?

I say again: That's my point. We shouldn't be speculating. We should be formulating proper estimates.

Let me do some flipping around.

Let's say another country wants to invade and take over Australia. The new regime will initially control when and where we can travel, go to work and run businesses, but promises that we will 'eventually' be 'allowed' to make and implement those decisions ourselves.

Fighting a war with the other country will cost an estimated 150,000 Australian lives.

Why wouldn't we just surrender, in order to save those 150,000 lives? No lives lost and the 'only' sacrifices are things that are difficult to cost in dollar terms. The business case writes itself, surely?
Right, let's draw this argy-barge to a close because I do not have the time to be formulating "proper estimates" for non-financials.

If you want to compare a speculative 'let it rip' scenario to the actual solution that Australian Governments have pursued, run with a cost of around $450 billion (that's $350 billion for the federal response (including tax revenues foregone), $60 billion for the aggregate state based responses an $40 billion for the 'non-financials'). If that doesn't suit, put your own numbers in.

Lives "saved" - 35,000 if you use Sweden to calculate the likely deaths under a minimalist mitigation approach; 45,000 if you use UK/US.

Raw dollars/life saved is in the range $10 million - $12.9 million. Adjust to suit your needs.


We came into this with a Federal government with a two seat majority in the House and the minors controlling the Senate having to work under the Constitution with the various State governments, three or four of which were facing upcoming elections. A low/no-mitigation approach was never a realistic alternative. Either the states would have done there own thing or on the day we reached a deaths milestone (5,000 in total, 500 on one day, etc, take your pick ) the Federal government would likely have lost a vote of confidence.

If your going to compare our actual camel of an approach/outcome with a unicorn of a speculative scenario, gee, I wonder how that's going to play out? The problem of course is that unicorns aren't real.

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Old 12th Jul 2021, 03:38
  #5822 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Sydney
Posts: 387
10 to 12.9 million per life. And the average age of those who die is around 82. Certainly that is the case in the uk and Australia. Which is about 1 year over the average age of all deaths. Hmmmmm. I wonder how many people would take on a family debt of 10 to 12.9 million to keep 82 year old grandpa or grandma alive for perhaps another few years.. that debt passed down through the generations of that family until it is repaid. Just like the 500 or whatever billion we have just spent will be….

answers on a postage stamp please. Just food for thought.

I would have thought that kind of money would be better spent on the overall health budget, medical research or social housing or education.

but then I guess nobody had any idea how this would play out and we still don’t.

oh to be a national leader..

Last edited by Foxxster; 12th Jul 2021 at 03:51.
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Old 12th Jul 2021, 03:43
  #5823 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NQLD
Age: 35
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Great response!

Originally Posted by MickG0105 View Post
Right, let's draw this argy-barge to a close because I do not have the time to be formulating "proper estimates" for non-financials.

If you want to compare a speculative 'let it rip' scenario to the actual solution that Australian Governments have pursued, run with a cost of around $450 billion (that's $350 billion for the federal response (including tax revenues foregone), $60 billion for the aggregate state based responses an $40 billion for the 'non-financials'). If that doesn't suit, put your own numbers in.

Lives "saved" - 35,000 if you use Sweden to calculate the likely deaths under a minimalist mitigation approach; 45,000 if you use UK/US.

Raw dollars/life saved is in the range $10 million - $12.9 million. Adjust to suit your needs.


We came into this with a Federal government with a two seat majority in the House and the minors controlling the Senate having to work under the Constitution with the various State governments, three or four of which were facing upcoming elections. A low/no-mitigation approach was never a realistic alternative. Either the states would have done there own thing or on the day we reached a deaths milestone (5,000 in total, 500 on one day, etc, take your pick ) the Federal government would likely have lost a vote of confidence.

If your going to compare our actual camel of an approach/outcome with a unicorn of a speculative scenario, gee, I wonder how that's going to play out? The problem of course is that unicorns aren't real.
Good summary of the “other factors”. It’s never as simple as the personal liberty VS lockdowns argument is put (by most people).

Even if we had followed a minimal restrictions approach and instead spent stacks of $$$ on health etc, business demand in various sectors would have dropped.

So a large number of business would have gone under anyway due to a change in spending patterns due to a large outbreak.

Airlines would have still put a lot of staff on unpaid leave because demand would have dropped at least 40%, plus international would have dried up because of the various restrictions all around the world.

Having quarantine on arrival made sense as a policy for Australia (an island). Plays to our massive strength. Having the nationwide lockdown last year made sense, originally to flatten the curve….

But that time should have been used to rapidly build “donga cities” in BNE/SYD/MEL/PER by mid year 2020.

Instead of arguing over a couple of dollars, Australia should have negotiated a similar deal to Israel for the Pfizer vaccine (as well as the AZ deal for onshore production, plus the failed UQ vaccine). This would have given us much better options. And a way out of the current mess!!

The general strategy wasn’t bad. And as mentioned was politically possible in our federation (states actually run the various health sectors, feds control the money). But around October last year, Australia was to busy saying “awesome job!” “Look how good we are!” when they should have been working harder than ever….
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Old 12th Jul 2021, 04:44
  #5824 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Oz
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Originally Posted by Ladloy View Post
112 cases, 34 in the community while infected. Onya Gladys.
‘Lockdown’

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Old 12th Jul 2021, 05:11
  #5825 (permalink)  
short flights long nights
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
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https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn...862&height=575

This is a photo of police in Fairfield. What’s with all the cars? Sydney really does not understand ‘ lock down’, does it?
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Old 12th Jul 2021, 05:40
  #5826 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Doomadgee
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what's with the police not wearing masks?
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Old 12th Jul 2021, 06:18
  #5827 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Australia/India
Posts: 3,713
A very good question.

What is happening in Sydney is that lots (and lots) of people are saying: Well, if it's OK for the bottleshop to stay open and it's OK for the furniture store to stay open and it's OK for the police to ride around without masks on and it's OK for..... C-19 can't be that serious a risk.

And there are lots (and lots) of Sydneysiders who are saying: Stuff it. I'll do what I like and you can go your hardest on me.

Lockdowns need be done fully-arsed rather than half-arsed, if they are going to have much chance of succeeding.

Last edited by Lead Balloon; 12th Jul 2021 at 06:29.
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Old 12th Jul 2021, 06:22
  #5828 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: Perth
Posts: 206
If a serious lockdown had been imposed two weeks ago this could have all been knocked on the head...but no "NSW does things differently'

There has been no containment over the last two weeks its now spread all over the city and numbers are climbing.....im not sure what GB is waiting for - "burdens" are needed,
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Old 12th Jul 2021, 06:23
  #5829 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Sydney
Posts: 387
The chook is urging Queenslanders in NSW to come home.

Border closure from midnight tonight coming up….
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Old 12th Jul 2021, 06:30
  #5830 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Australia/India
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...thus causing a stampede of people, including potentially infected people, from NSW to QLD. What could possibly go wrong?
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Old 12th Jul 2021, 06:45
  #5831 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 1998
Location: The Swan Downunder
Posts: 855
And our leaders still manage to find a way to balls it up. We are so fatigued. The virus is perfect, the fatal strain is inevitable, we are not preparing for it, it is preparing us.
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Old 12th Jul 2021, 06:59
  #5832 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Philippines
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Covid Charts Quiz

https://www.covidchartsquiz.com/
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Old 12th Jul 2021, 09:05
  #5833 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
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Old 12th Jul 2021, 09:06
  #5834 (permalink)  
short flights long nights
 
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Originally Posted by mattyj View Post

And that is exactly the problem.
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Old 12th Jul 2021, 10:27
  #5835 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Oz
Posts: 1,010
Loved the footage of the bloke fishing who said he was ‘fishing for food to survive’. He was able to continue.

Try that in a Dan lockdown last year. Be at least 5k fine.
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Old 12th Jul 2021, 11:47
  #5836 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 4
This lunacy will continue for years to come, this one event will change the way we live get used to living with fear & tyranny!
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Old 12th Jul 2021, 12:04
  #5837 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Sydney
Posts: 284
Originally Posted by PoppaJo View Post
Loved the footage of the bloke fishing who said he was ‘fishing for food to survive’. He was able to continue.

Try that in a Dan lockdown last year. Be at least 5k fine.
hunting for food was allowed
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Old 12th Jul 2021, 21:18
  #5838 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Budapest
Posts: 68
Originally Posted by Foxxster View Post
The chook is urging Queenslanders in NSW to come home.

Border closure from midnight tonight coming up….
Queensland won’t close borders until all the NRL teams are relocated …..probably after Wednesday…..
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Old 12th Jul 2021, 21:30
  #5839 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Brisbane
Posts: 139
Originally Posted by Foxxster View Post
The chook is urging Queenslanders in NSW to come home.
Border closure from midnight tonight coming up….
Not until the NRL teams, their entourage and families are 'safely' in Queensland and the State of Origin has been played. After all, the CHO said they present absolutely no risk to the Queensland community….
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Old 12th Jul 2021, 21:40
  #5840 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
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Originally Posted by C441 View Post
Not until the NRL teams, their entourage and families are 'safely' in Queensland and the State of Origin has been played. After all, the CHO said they present absolutely no risk to the Queensland community….
Beat me to it. Absolutely spot on. Pure politics.
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