Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

Project Sunrise

Old 13th Apr 2020, 05:09
  #2101 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by crosscutter View Post
All I would add is in my interpretation:
there won’t be an indefinite stand down for a fleet. This is because the stand down (as opposed to other methods of managing a surplus) applies while the aircraft don’t fly. So For example, if the A380 never flew again the stand down could only apply for as long as the a380s were still parked and operational in QF colours. As soon as they were sold or discarded a RIN must occur and the stand down ends. I doubt QF would keep an aircraft just to avoid redundancy payouts.

It explains the lack of announcements regarding the 747, when everyone knows it has almost no chance of further operations. At the very least the waters are very muddy on this issue.
Keeping a 747 or 380 on the books would be cheaper than retraining all their pilots onto other fleets, and then the subsequent residual back bids, 2/3rds of LH would be getting retrained at the same time. And with those fleets barely flying as it is how can any retraining occur?

Originally Posted by normanton View Post
Long periods of stand down, no redundancy payments, and lots of pilots taking LWOP, taking an alternative career, or pulling the pin and retiring early.

What a year 2020 will be.
Not just this year, this'll go on for quite a few. Although I do believe all current pilots will have the opportunity to return to something, it will throw up the issue of retraining a large group of pilots who have spent quite a few years out of the flight deck.
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Old 13th Apr 2020, 05:10
  #2102 (permalink)  
 
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Another possibility is a court case to enable the airline to make redundancy where they fall. That would be probably cheaper than pushing a 60 year old Captain onto a 787, retraining him only to have him retire or be forced on again to the 737 come 65.
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Old 13th Apr 2020, 05:14
  #2103 (permalink)  
 
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It is a mess no two ways about it. If the 747s still had a buyer and they depart then IMO you can’t avoid a RIN on that aircraft.Then there is also VR , a minimum of 26 weeks or if that doesn’t work CR but I believe that can’t be targeted.
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Old 13th Apr 2020, 05:18
  #2104 (permalink)  
 
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Don’t worry jocks.... we’ve got the LHers take over on AIPA......

soon we will see the implimentation of their CUNning plan

probaby a 6 % increase in a380 pay in de werks

maKe AIPA Grate agin
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Old 13th Apr 2020, 05:21
  #2105 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by crosscutter View Post
All I would add is in my interpretation:
there won’t be an indefinite stand down for a fleet. This is because the stand down (as opposed to other methods of managing a surplus) applies while the aircraft don’t fly. So For example, if the A380 never flew again the stand down could only apply for as long as the a380s were still parked and operational in QF colours. As soon as they were sold or discarded a RIN must occur and the stand down ends. I doubt QF would keep an aircraft just to avoid redundancy payouts.

It explains the lack of announcements regarding the 747, when everyone knows it has almost no chance of further operations. At the very least the waters are very muddy on this issue.
And that's exactly it - 100%. They wont announce the 747 retirement because it will mean a RIN, and right now they cant afford it.

The chief pilots exact words: "at an appropriate time we will follow the RIN process".

Originally Posted by dragon man View Post
And of course HRs word is gospel isn’t it.
It's much better than yours, that's for sure. Whats even better is that it actually makes sense because it saves them cash, and they have the legislation to back it.
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Old 13th Apr 2020, 05:31
  #2106 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
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and his crystal ball 🤣[/QUOTE]

Starting to think my crystal ball is unserviceable, otherwise I would have given up the good life and bid for a slot on the game changer when I had the chance.

There will be a RIN in some capacity but I can assure you TLS will do all he can to open the EA and chop and change us all as they see fit $$$. As the saying goes, QF will never waste a good a good crisis and this is a window for them to do so. Do not assume your seniority number will be your saving grace if you’re currently on the 380 or 747.

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Old 13th Apr 2020, 06:27
  #2107 (permalink)  
 
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The RIN on the 747 will happen and positions will be on fleets that can carry a surplus and that surplus will continue on probably agreed lower divisors until the extra 787s arrive and the 350s alleviate the surplus on the 330. No knock on demotions, no redundancies and lots of retirements over the next few years is the word Ive got. Gotta remember QF haven't got a very big fleet of aircraft, the RIN on the 747 is for a total of 5 aircraft. At least 6 of the 380s will make a return initially so again revised lower divisors, and retirements will mange that aircraft until demand picks up. Might see the old divisor of something like 132 being reintroduced as a temporary measure. 737 can also carry a surplus with divisors being cut to 55 hours as a further option as it will be the first fleet to experience any form of normality until restrictions of international travel are lifted. These scenarios save money in the long run and keep good operational staff occupied instead of chasing other options and are there ready to go when it all picks up.
The sky isn't falling in.
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Old 13th Apr 2020, 07:05
  #2108 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by OnceBitten View Post
The RIN on the 747 will happen and positions will be on fleets that can carry a surplus and that surplus will continue on probably agreed lower divisors until the extra 787s arrive and the 350s alleviate the surplus on the 330. No knock on demotions, no redundancies and lots of retirements over the next few years is the word Ive got. Gotta remember QF haven't got a very big fleet of aircraft, the RIN on the 747 is for a total of 5 aircraft. At least 6 of the 380s will make a return initially so again revised lower divisors, and retirements will mange that aircraft until demand picks up. Might see the old divisor of something like 132 being reintroduced as a temporary measure. 737 can also carry a surplus with divisors being cut to 55 hours as a further option as it will be the first fleet to experience any form of normality until restrictions of international travel are lifted. These scenarios save money in the long run and keep good operational staff occupied instead of chasing other options and are there ready to go when it all picks up.
The sky isn't falling in.
Duck me! Finally a voice of reason and I’m glad some of these ‘others’ aren’t running the show and I sure hope they aren’t on the AIPA committee.

All these wacky theories were floated when the 767 went into retirement. None of them happened and all it did was cause heartache for those “under threat”.
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Old 13th Apr 2020, 07:15
  #2109 (permalink)  
 
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Re 737...can carry a surplus with current crew. Can’t train surplisncrew from
other fleets onto 737 with a divisor of 55
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Old 13th Apr 2020, 07:32
  #2110 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by cloudsurfng View Post
Re 737...can carry a surplus with current crew. Can’t train surplisncrew from
other fleets onto 737 with a divisor of 55

Yep. Can’t train to the 737 unless the average divisor is above something (68hours?) It won’t be there for some time. Also, the 737 can’t be involved in a RIN. So it won’t be a place for a surplus for anybody,
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 04:20
  #2111 (permalink)  
 
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Hypothetical: the company has the A380 grounded for over 12 months, but (assuming this rumour is true) puts the A350 into service in the meantime. How many A380 crew would, if offered and within seniority rules, move to the A350 outside a RIN, just to get back to work and get a pay check?
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 04:51
  #2112 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Chad Gates View Post
Hypothetical: the company has the A380 grounded for over 12 months, but (assuming this rumour is true) puts the A350 into service in the meantime. How many A380 crew would, if offered and within seniority rules, move to the A350 outside a RIN, just to get back to work and get a pay check?
will qantas have the spare cash to drop a billion dollars or so on 10-12 A350s in the near future?

I think there’s a good chance of qantas retiring some or all of their A380s without buying a replacement for 2-3 years or using JQ 787s as the replacement (no capital expenditure required).

Cash will still be king as airlines recover from COVID19.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 05:32
  #2113 (permalink)  
 
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It took QF a few days to secure a billion $ loan. They could go to market and do a traditional capital raising like QBE have just announced if needed. However, I know SFA, but I’d imagine they would need to have very compelling reasons to go splashing cash on 10 new birds above and beyond deposits for firm orders.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 06:04
  #2114 (permalink)  
 
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I said it before, we will see Project Sunrise flights come into service much sooner than originally planned. Qantas is in a unique position to make it work once the international borders are open and business travel starts picking up. The 10 rumoured QF A350s could be an indication.

And yes QF has the cash to storm through this for the next 12 months as well as to purchase the A350s.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 10:58
  #2115 (permalink)  
 
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Anyone who thinks they have any idea about what is happening is seriously deluded.

The ‘rules’ are being rewritten by the hour and my best guess suggests there are a year of hours to go.

I sincerely hope the trough gorgers are sacked for borrowing billions for their pay packets when they convince the government to bail them out. I sincerely hope that may give a chance at redressing the bizarre decision the ‘yes’ voters made but as I did post before ‘All bets are off’.

We are less than a month into this thing.

Economically we have supply side, demand side, cash velocity and massive social security hits all at once, It’s never happened before. Ever.

The Long Beach Arena is being converted into a makeshift hospital. The Queen Mary is next.

Qantas will be bailed out - I’m arguing vehemently that those who borrowed cash to bolster their pay packets should be unceremoniously dumped. I’m trying to get muppets who voted yes another chance.....

On the Muppet point. The image posted above was appropriate! A picture of (supposedly me) being paid a fortune to be watched by those not being paid. Made a lot of sense!

That being said. Best of luck to all. Except those screwing you.

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Old 14th Apr 2020, 12:53
  #2116 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by V-Jet View Post
Anyone who thinks they have any idea about what is happening is seriously deluded.

The ‘rules’ are being rewritten by the hour and my best guess suggests there are a year of hours to go.

I sincerely hope the trough gorgers are sacked for borrowing billions for their pay packets when they convince the government to bail them out. I sincerely hope that may give a chance at redressing the bizarre decision the ‘yes’ voters made but as I did post before ‘All bets are off’.

We are less than a month into this thing.

Economically we have supply side, demand side, cash velocity and massive social security hits all at once, It’s never happened before. Ever.

The Long Beach Arena is being converted into a makeshift hospital. The Queen Mary is next.

Qantas will be bailed out - I’m arguing vehemently that those who borrowed cash to bolster their pay packets should be unceremoniously dumped. I’m trying to get muppets who voted yes another chance.....

On the Muppet point. The image posted above was appropriate! A picture of (supposedly me) being paid a fortune to be watched by those not being paid. Made a lot of sense!

That being said. Best of luck to all. Except those screwing you.
Wow, just wow,

Calling all the “yes” voters “muppets” in this environment...
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 15:52
  #2117 (permalink)  
 
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The QF decision for the A350-1000ULR and now with up to 9,700 nm has been pushed back to the end of the year.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 23:02
  #2118 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by B772 View Post
The QF decision for the A350-1000ULR and now with up to 9,700 nm has been pushed back to the end of the year.
And the previously-rumoured buyer of 10 A350s has been revealed as Delta, not QANTAS, so no "Instant Project Sunrise"
See Simple Flying: Delta Takes Over $3B Airbus A350 Order From LATAM
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