Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

Qantas Group A321XLR order

Old 20th Jun 2019, 06:39
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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Those 787’s after a refit won’t be tired and time will tell if the new composites have the durability to warrant the criticism of being old.

It is reflective that JQI can’t turn a decent ROIC and be competitive when Maint costs rise and rival carriers get more efficient jets...but somehow QFI can. And this has been my point. Perhaps if QF were given the new jets they would earn a higher ROIC than JQI.

When it comes to allocation AJ might be gone.
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Old 20th Jun 2019, 07:06
  #22 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by crosscutter View Post
Those 787ís after a refit wonít be tired and time will tell if the new composites have the durability to warrant the criticism of being old.

It is reflective that JQI canít turn a decent ROIC and be competitive when Maint costs rise and rival carriers get more efficient jets...but somehow QFI can. And this has been my point. Perhaps if QF were given the new jets they would earn a higher ROIC than JQI and that doesnít feel fair.

When it comes to allocation AJ might be gone.
Iím sure a major part of the business case of having JQ take delivery of the A321XLR to replace the 787 will be the huge savings of essentially having a single fleet type (as far as tech, cabin crewing and maintenance costs are concerned).

To match the capacity of our 11 787s we should only need 18 or so A321XLRs (maybe less considering the A321LRs can cover the Bali flying) so that would leave plenty of airframes for QF to take delivery of too.

It would suit QF well on the golden triangle as well as thinner routes into Asia.

The biggest variable of the fleet plans will be how much range the dense JQ cabin config will actually get as far as whether or not the A321XLR will be able to replace all JQ 787 flying. I doubt it will be anywhere near the 4,700nm stated by Airbus.

MEL and SYD to SGN, BKK and HKT are all around 3800nm and the soon to be launched OOL ICN is further again (4200nm). The HNL flying could be taken over by QF.

I suppose they have 5 years to figure that out!
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Old 20th Jun 2019, 08:32
  #23 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE View Post


Iím sure a major part of the business case of having JQ take delivery of the A321XLR to replace the 787 will be the huge savings of essentially having a single fleet type (as far as tech, cabin crewing and maintenance costs are concerned).
How much will it hurt coming back from the wide body variation?

Mou is at 330 FO per, for now.....
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​​​​​
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Old 20th Jun 2019, 09:05
  #24 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by maggot View Post
How much will it hurt coming back from the wide body variation?

Mou is at 330 FO per, for now.....
​​​

​​​​​
I suppose QF pilots are lucky that a precident was set all those years ago when JQ pilots were trained to fly the A330 at the expence of QF pilots. I'd think it would be difficult to argue the opposite if this rumour turns out to be true.
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Old 22nd Jun 2019, 02:03
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Originally Posted by Blueskymine View Post
Unfortunately the network guys will be getting a bit brazen soon. So the company will need a another growth vehicle to leverage Network.

Skippers anyone?
When you're all dressed up and hit your Roo tailed plane to still know you're on Network pay & conditions ... didn't take long ..
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Old 22nd Jun 2019, 16:36
  #26 (permalink)  
 
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Youíd want to find a chair if youíre a QF pilot.

it might only be a PER A330 FO slot, but itís more pay than a JQ 320 captain.

Id say most QF pilot are now sh....tting themselves as I bet no QF guys have factored in the MOU slots... and once in, these MOU pilots wonít return to JQ.

Slow progression if youíre not 1800 and below!
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Old 22nd Jun 2019, 20:07
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How many MOU pilots are still there (pre Nov 2004 hires)? My guess would be less than 50, but I donít really know. And the slots are 7 in 20 max? But we know that can be manipulated to less, as weíve seen for the last 15 years. I wouldnít be that worried.
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Old 23rd Jun 2019, 00:03
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Originally Posted by SandyPalms View Post
How many MOU pilots are still there (pre Nov 2004 hires)? My guess would be less than 50, but I donít really know. And the slots are 7 in 20 max? But we know that can be manipulated to less, as weíve seen for the last 15 years. I wouldnít be that worried.
116.

they MOU slots are only available in initial vacancies, not residuals, and donít have to be made available every time there is an allocation. Also QF can stipulate where and w hich fleet. The recent MOU numbers in PER would also have been able to get 787 PER, 330MEL. Once checked out, normal freeze applies. Plus JQ have to agree to release the pilot on LWOP. Arenít JQ short as well? Iíd expect a few to trickle across before the brakes are put on for a while.
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Old 23rd Jun 2019, 04:23
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Originally Posted by goodonyamate View Post


116.
Thanks. That a lot more than I expected. But I guess many wonít be the slightest bit interested as theyíd most likely be on the 787. And even if the A321 was to replace it, thatís still 5 years away.
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Old 23rd Jun 2019, 05:17
  #30 (permalink)  
 
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Why on earth are there still MOU numbers being printed on the seniority list, beyond these 116? Delete them!
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Old 23rd Jun 2019, 05:32
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If the pilots who have got the A330 slots are not endorsed any idea who does the training and who foots the bill?
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Old 23rd Jun 2019, 11:03
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Originally Posted by ConfigFull View Post
Why on earth are there still MOU numbers being printed on the seniority list, beyond these 116? Delete them!
Because if a MOU position is advertised and isnít taken up by a successful JQ applicants the highest JQ number on the QF seniority list is deleted, for each unfilled advertised slot.

So for arguments sake if 5 were deleted off the top because no one applied or were deemed unsuccessful. But then all 116 were taken after, 121st JQ number ďprintedĒ on the QF seniority list could be allocated.

Thats why more than 116 numbers have been ďprintedĒ.
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Old 27th Jun 2019, 23:31
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Originally Posted by f1yhigh View Post
As the saying goes, past behavior is a good indicator for future behavior, so I'm calling it now, the future of the Qantas Group will most likely be as follows:

- JQ B787s to mainline (how they'll configure them will be interesting)
- 321XLRs to JQ
- A350-1000ULR for Sunrise and maybe (a strong maybe) some A359 sister aircraft
- CASA to approve EDTO 330 for B787s before B747 retirement
- More 787 orders by next year
- B737s, A330s and A380s to stick around well into the 2030s barring maybe the oldest B737s
- By then we'll know for sure what the B737, A330 and A380 replacements will be. My guess would be B737 MAX as B738 replacements once the dust settles down, either more A350s or the B777X for A380 replacement, more B787 for A330 replacement
For what it's worth, AJ has expressed interest in the NMA / 797 - as an A330 replacement on domestic & regional international sectors.

"In June 2019, following the launch of the A321XLR, Boeing was understood to be prioritizing the 275-seat variant, tentatively dubbed NMA-7X, ahead of the 225-seat NMA-6X which would compete more directly with the A321XLR." Boeing will start pitching the type in late 2019 and launch it in 2020. (Source: Wikipedia.)

The A380 cabin refresh is described as a "mid-life upgrade". On average they're a bit over 10 years old now. Let's assume they want 10 years out of the A380 cabin reconfig (first one back in service Sep 2019 and last one by late-2020). The fleet will be on borrowed time from late-2030.

TLS has also said it's cheaper to fly two 787's nose to tail than it is to fly one A380 on the same route. If the per seat economics of upcoming LR and XLR big twins - A350-900/1000, B777-8X/9X, or long range version of NMA - is even better than 787's, that would add to the bias toward getting rid of A380's sooner rather than later.

A sustained hike in fuel prices in mid / late 2020's may kill the A380's earlier than 2030.

The A380 is still a relatively young beast with lots of new tech materials in centre wing box, wings, empennage, stabilisers and fuselage skin, so the above assumes that there are no life-shortening surprises discovered in these materials in upcoming heavy checks.
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Old 28th Jun 2019, 00:17
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Originally Posted by Prolapsed Annulus View Post
For what it's worth, AJ has expressed interest in the NMA / 797 - as an A330 replacement on domestic & regional international sectors.

"In June 2019, following the launch of the A321XLR, Boeing was understood to be prioritizing the 275-seat variant, tentatively dubbed NMA-7X, ahead of the 225-seat NMA-6X which would compete more directly with the A321XLR." Boeing will start pitching the type in late 2019 and launch it in 2020. (Source: Wikipedia.)

The A380 cabin refresh is described as a "mid-life upgrade". On average they're a bit over 10 years old now. Let's assume they want 10 years out of the A380 cabin reconfig (first one back in service Sep 2019 and last one by late-2020). The fleet will be on borrowed time from late-2030.

TLS has also said it's cheaper to fly two 787's nose to tail than it is to fly one A380 on the same route. If the per seat economics of upcoming LR and XLR big twins - A350-900/1000, B777-8X/9X, or long range version of NMA - is even better than 787's, that would add to the bias toward getting rid of A380's sooner rather than later.

A sustained hike in fuel prices in mid / late 2020's may kill the A380's earlier than 2030.

The A380 is still a relatively young beast with lots of new tech materials in centre wing box, wings, empennage, stabilisers and fuselage skin, so the above assumes that there are no life-shortening surprises discovered in these materials in upcoming heavy checks.
All good in theory, until you take into account how long 747ís are in the fleet for as a guide of phasing out a fleet within QF.
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Old 28th Jun 2019, 01:05
  #35 (permalink)  
 
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Willie Walsh might take all 12 QF A380s for BA????

https://www.aerotelegraph.com/interv...en-sinn-machen

In our last interview about two years ago Airbus A380 were still a topic - second-hand. In the meantime, some will become available. Are you still interested?
Yes. At British Airways, we would definitely think about it.

If you get them for free?
If we get them for the right price. The biggest problem is the cost of the renovation, which is quite high. We have to be sure that we can do it in ways that make it worthwhile, and then it will be an issue. We currently have twelve A380s in the British Airways fleet and could imagine 18. Six more Airbus A380s would make sense.
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Old 28th Jun 2019, 01:53
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Originally Posted by havick View Post


All good in theory, until you take into account how long 747ís are in the fleet for as a guide of phasing out a fleet within QF.
Pretty much this. Past behavior is a good indicator of future behavior. Those A380s will get run to the ground.
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Old 2nd Jul 2019, 00:15
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Originally Posted by Don Diego View Post
you mean that a#@e wipe that kicked the bucket the other day???
​Not the bloke who passed on at the age of 89?
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