Originally Posted by
f1yhigh
As the saying goes, past behavior is a good indicator for future behavior, so I'm calling it now, the future of the Qantas Group will most likely be as follows:
- JQ B787s to mainline (how they'll configure them will be interesting)
- 321XLRs to JQ
- A350-1000ULR for Sunrise and maybe (a strong maybe) some A359 sister aircraft
- CASA to approve EDTO 330 for B787s before B747 retirement
- More 787 orders by next year
- B737s, A330s and A380s to stick around well into the 2030s barring maybe the oldest B737s
- By then we'll know for sure what the B737, A330 and A380 replacements will be. My guess would be B737 MAX as B738 replacements once the dust settles down, either more A350s or the B777X for A380 replacement, more B787 for A330 replacement
For what it's worth, AJ has expressed interest in the NMA / 797 - as an A330 replacement on domestic & regional international sectors.
"In June 2019, following the launch of the A321XLR, Boeing was understood to be prioritizing the 275-seat variant, tentatively dubbed NMA-7X, ahead of the 225-seat NMA-6X which would compete more directly with the A321XLR." Boeing will start pitching the type in late 2019 and launch it in 2020. (Source: Wikipedia.)
The A380 cabin refresh is described as a "mid-life upgrade". On average they're a bit over 10 years old now. Let's assume they want 10 years out of the A380 cabin reconfig (first one back in service Sep 2019 and last one by late-2020). The fleet will be on borrowed time from late-2030.
TLS has also said it's cheaper to fly two 787's nose to tail than it is to fly one A380 on the same route. If the per seat economics of upcoming LR and XLR big twins - A350-900/1000, B777-8X/9X, or long range version of NMA - is even better than 787's, that would add to the bias toward getting rid of A380's sooner rather than later.
A sustained hike in fuel prices in mid / late 2020's may kill the A380's earlier than 2030.
The A380 is still a relatively young beast with lots of new tech materials in centre wing box, wings, empennage, stabilisers and fuselage skin, so the above assumes that there are no life-shortening surprises discovered in these materials in upcoming heavy checks.