Originally Posted by
Prolapsed Annulus
For what it's worth, AJ has expressed interest in the NMA / 797 - as an A330 replacement on domestic & regional international sectors.
"In June 2019, following the launch of the A321XLR, Boeing was understood to be prioritizing the 275-seat variant, tentatively dubbed NMA-7X, ahead of the 225-seat NMA-6X which would compete more directly with the A321XLR." Boeing will start pitching the type in late 2019 and launch it in 2020. (Source: Wikipedia.)
The A380 cabin refresh is described as a "mid-life upgrade". On average they're a bit over 10 years old now. Let's assume they want 10 years out of the A380 cabin reconfig (first one back in service Sep 2019 and last one by late-2020). The fleet will be on borrowed time from late-2030.
TLS has also said it's cheaper to fly two 787's nose to tail than it is to fly one A380 on the same route. If the per seat economics of upcoming LR and XLR big twins - A350-900/1000, B777-8X/9X, or long range version of NMA - is even better than 787's, that would add to the bias toward getting rid of A380's sooner rather than later.
A sustained hike in fuel prices in mid / late 2020's may kill the A380's earlier than 2030.
The A380 is still a relatively young beast with lots of new tech materials in centre wing box, wings, empennage, stabilisers and fuselage skin, so the above assumes that there are no life-shortening surprises discovered in these materials in upcoming heavy checks.
All good in theory, until you take into account how long 747’s are in the fleet for as a guide of phasing out a fleet within QF.