Pilot shortage
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Do you think they would get just as good a result if they didn't have a sim ride ?
I've seen quite a few candidates that have the HR people fizzing with their brilliance who are obviously unsuitable when put in a sim.
I've seen quite a few candidates that have the HR people fizzing with their brilliance who are obviously unsuitable when put in a sim.
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If indeed there is shortage, then what does an airline achieve by having high minimum experience hours for entry, psychometric testing, sim ride, and a interview where they like to play mind games, and thats just the airlines that squeeze it into 1 day, never mind the 2 days worth experience.
As airline management, would you rather have scheduling issues or a hull loss because of low standard pilots? Only way to counter the low standard of recruits is more training, which costs a whole heap more and often is unachievable because it's illegal to make your training captains work 100hrs a week.
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If indeed there is shortage, then what does an airline achieve by having high minimum experience hours for entry, psychometric testing, sim ride, and a interview where they like to play mind games, and thats just the airlines that squeeze it into 1 day, never mind the 2 days worth experience.
If one sits and listens to O'Leary, regarding his 'scheduling problems' you saw his tone largely belligerent, mocking, dismissive and confrontational. That time has now passed. The challenge for Ryanair is to unwind all the investment in a model that required ASSUMED unlimited supply.
He now is on bended knee to the pilots. As Gandhi said;
'First they ignore you,then they laugh at you, then they fight you and then you win'
Gandhi
Much downward pressure has been exerted on terms and conditions. HR grew very powerful and I would assume at Qantas HR drive nearly every decision, email and recruitment process as it struggles for relevance.
This shortage is not cyclical, it is structural. The demographic problem is yet to be addressed fully. Labour associations ought be all over it, but if history rhymes, the union movement is always a dollar short and a day late. Ever wondered why?
The U.S. will face a staggering shortage of pilots - Jul. 27, 2017
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/...-next-20-years
The U.S. Is Facing a Disastrous Pilot Shortage
With regard to Framer's comment:
I would be interested to know the answer if anyone can help. I have spent a few minutes searching the web and found a graph showing that in 2000 there were just over 6000 ATPLs in Australia and in 2005 there were 6500 ATPL's in Australia but that is all I can find.
Can anyone direct me to better information?
Can anyone direct me to better information?
It's not the easiest to find but it isnt completely hidden away either. In the CASA publications, under annual reports, appendices. The 2011-2012 report, here: https://www.casa.gov.au/sites/g/file.../ar1112_p6.pdfhas a table going back a few years, so heres a couple.
From the 2011-2012 report:
In 2007-2008 there were 521 ATPLs issued, and 6564 current. In the same period there were 1352 CPLs issued and 4103 current.
In 2011-2012 there were 472 ATPLs issued, and 6521 current, along with 1052 CPLs issued and 3988 current.
The latest (2015-2016) report here: https://www.casa.gov.au/book-page/ap...ing-statisticsshowed that for 2015-2016 there were 162 ATPLs issued, and 7375 current, and 1048 CPLs issued with 4616 current. Unfortunately the table from the most recent annual report also has a column for 2011-2012 showing 504 ATPLs issued and 7321 current, which is 800 different from the 2011/2012 figures given in the earlier report, so either one or the other or both is completely wrong and noone knows how many ATPL holders are active or issued in any given year. I also dont know how they classify licenceholders as current or not, and a pilot with an ATPL may have moved to a job where they only exercise the privileges of a CPL, or overseas.
From the 2011-2012 report:
In 2007-2008 there were 521 ATPLs issued, and 6564 current. In the same period there were 1352 CPLs issued and 4103 current.
In 2011-2012 there were 472 ATPLs issued, and 6521 current, along with 1052 CPLs issued and 3988 current.
The latest (2015-2016) report here: https://www.casa.gov.au/book-page/ap...ing-statisticsshowed that for 2015-2016 there were 162 ATPLs issued, and 7375 current, and 1048 CPLs issued with 4616 current. Unfortunately the table from the most recent annual report also has a column for 2011-2012 showing 504 ATPLs issued and 7321 current, which is 800 different from the 2011/2012 figures given in the earlier report, so either one or the other or both is completely wrong and noone knows how many ATPL holders are active or issued in any given year. I also dont know how they classify licenceholders as current or not, and a pilot with an ATPL may have moved to a job where they only exercise the privileges of a CPL, or overseas.
Australian operators make their own shortages. One poster commented that they wouldn't want a person in the RHS who couldn't pass a sim check. What about all the people who don't get a sim check because they don't have "500 multi under the IFR" or "MCC completed". Do you really need 500 multi command to sit RHS in a metro, dash 8 or Brasilia? Airlines are narrowing the the applicants to a trickle then complaining there are aren't any suitable candidates!
Last edited by pilotchute; 8th Oct 2017 at 21:13.
I've heard countless stories like this and those ones did have 500 multi IFR!
Or what about the number who don't get the opportunity for the sim check because the HR girl (who's never set foot in a cockpit) didn't like their face or their "tell me about a time when" story wasn't embellished enough...
I've heard countless stories like this and those ones did have 500 multi IFR!
I've heard countless stories like this and those ones did have 500 multi IFR!
De Flieger
Of those figures, can you determine how many actually stay in oz. I imagine a lot of CPL/ATPL issues would be for overseas students who go back to their sponsor airline. It's a fundamental issue to our current plight. Perhaps the AFAP or similar could make these FOI enquiries to set the record straight.
Of those figures, can you determine how many actually stay in oz. I imagine a lot of CPL/ATPL issues would be for overseas students who go back to their sponsor airline. It's a fundamental issue to our current plight. Perhaps the AFAP or similar could make these FOI enquiries to set the record straight.
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Or what about the number who don't get the opportunity for the sim check because the HR girl (who's never set foot in a cockpit) didn't like their face or their "tell me about a time when" story wasn't embellished enough...
Perhaps also the minimum hours required will be liberalised. I would be looking for these signals of supply shortage.
Great job De-flieger
It's not the easiest to find but it isnt completely hidden away either. In the CASA publications, under annual reports, appendices. The 2011-2012 report, here: https://www.casa.gov.au/sites/g/file.../ar1112_p6.pdfhas a table going back a few years, so heres(sic) a couple.
- Are these new licences issued to Australian students?
- Are the licence privileges being exercised in Australia?
Of those figures, can you determine how many actually stay in oz. I imagine a lot of CPL/ATPL issues would be for overseas students who go back to their sponsor airline. It's a fundamental issue to our current plight. Perhaps the AFAP or similar could make these FOI enquiries to set the record straight.
Labour organisations are not well credentialed when it comes to research, my faith in them is marginal, perhaps a question if asked would get them moving in the right direction.
Last edited by Rated De; 8th Oct 2017 at 23:54. Reason: typo
Over in NZ, the answer to both is a resounding No! In most circumstances anyway. Several Schools here market themselves almost entirely to international students, mostly from India or China. I'm sure it's the same on both sides of the ditch.
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Over in NZ, the answer to both is a resounding No! In most circumstances anyway. Several Schools here market themselves almost entirely to international students, mostly from India or China.
You would be suprised how low the number of Australian citizen CPL issues actually is.
It is the same in the USA and Europe.
Ever wonder why some airlines are guaranteeing loans and paying for training again, from ab-initio to airline?
https://www.pilotcareernews.com/brit...lot-programme/
JQ and other bottom feeder airlines who model themselves on Ryanair are by definition in big trouble. Whether paying for endorsements or simulators and uniforms, these cost will instead be something the employer is responsible for again; simply called cost of business.
Those old enough may remember 'On the Beach' which had Australia as the last place unaffected by the nuclear war, but eventually (spoiler alert) the radiation got to Australia. Apologies to Nevil Shute!
This shortage is real, not cyclical and despite Boeing and Airbus marketing pilot costs won't be solved by pilot-less aircraft anytime soon. Whilst it is clear heavily adversarial airlines will not embrace this paradigm shift as a welcome change, it may well be something that is forced upon them.
Sadly for O'Leary et al, unlimited supply is no longer assured.
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Because regardless of the shortage, most airlines will ground planes rather than put sub-par pilots in the RH seat
Aircraft on Ground do not earn revenue.
I would not be prepared to put money on this. Already many airlines are putting pilots with a bare 250 hours into the RHS - have flown with a few.
And, indeed recall a certain pilot (self) with a bare 265 hours went straight into the RHS.
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What if that " healthy hold pool " of QF , JQ , & VA are the same applicants applying to whoever will offer them a job first ?
Becomes a fairly shallow pool , quite quickly , if all the incumbents recruit heavily, from the same font ,
at the same time !
Becomes a fairly shallow pool , quite quickly , if all the incumbents recruit heavily, from the same font ,
at the same time !
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Why any talk about what's available for the RHS??
Whilst desirable to have a certain standard you CAN - push comes to shove - have the literal "trained monkey" and ops can go on.
LHS is where the legal buck stops so THAT's where the question arises...how low can you go with the matrix of components (hours/experience, training, CRM exposure, multi crew ops etc etc) for the PIC in the LHS....accompanied by their trained monkey??
Always amuses me when people talk about the "pilot shortage", the real talk has to be about the "command shortage" because THAT's when the potential to ground aircraft becomes real.
In the perfect world all crew would be trained to the highest standards (initial and recurrent) but that costs $$$$ so lets at least talk in context of the commercial reality as espoused by the dark forces of commercial reality!
Sadly not the way it should be - but the way it is.
Cheers.
Whilst desirable to have a certain standard you CAN - push comes to shove - have the literal "trained monkey" and ops can go on.
LHS is where the legal buck stops so THAT's where the question arises...how low can you go with the matrix of components (hours/experience, training, CRM exposure, multi crew ops etc etc) for the PIC in the LHS....accompanied by their trained monkey??
Always amuses me when people talk about the "pilot shortage", the real talk has to be about the "command shortage" because THAT's when the potential to ground aircraft becomes real.
In the perfect world all crew would be trained to the highest standards (initial and recurrent) but that costs $$$$ so lets at least talk in context of the commercial reality as espoused by the dark forces of commercial reality!
Sadly not the way it should be - but the way it is.
Cheers.
Why any talk about what's available for the RHS??
Whilst desirable to have a certain standard you CAN - push comes to shove - have the literal "trained monkey" and ops can go on.
LHS is where the legal buck stops so THAT's where the question arises...how low can you go with the matrix of components (hours/experience, training, CRM exposure, multi crew ops etc etc) for the PIC in the LHS....accompanied by their trained monkey??
Always amuses me when people talk about the "pilot shortage", the real talk has to be about the "command shortage" because THAT's when the potential to ground aircraft becomes real.
In the perfect world all crew would be trained to the highest standards (initial and recurrent) but that costs $$$$ so lets at least talk in context of the commercial reality as espoused by the dark forces of commercial reality!
Sadly not the way it should be - but the way it is.
Cheers.
Whilst desirable to have a certain standard you CAN - push comes to shove - have the literal "trained monkey" and ops can go on.
LHS is where the legal buck stops so THAT's where the question arises...how low can you go with the matrix of components (hours/experience, training, CRM exposure, multi crew ops etc etc) for the PIC in the LHS....accompanied by their trained monkey??
Always amuses me when people talk about the "pilot shortage", the real talk has to be about the "command shortage" because THAT's when the potential to ground aircraft becomes real.
In the perfect world all crew would be trained to the highest standards (initial and recurrent) but that costs $$$$ so lets at least talk in context of the commercial reality as espoused by the dark forces of commercial reality!
Sadly not the way it should be - but the way it is.
Cheers.
While those of us at Air NZ/QF count the decades to the RHS of a Widebody and ponder if we'll ever see the LHS before retirement, there's a whole world of 250 hour cadets getting their commands in a few short years.
Of course, a quick glance at Airlines where this occurs (RyanAir) paints a very bleak picture as to why, but we all have our price. I believe J*, JetConnect and Virgin (NZ) are already losing Captains, some long serving, to the huge offerings in China.
In the years to come, I expect we'll see more and more commuting contracts on offer for experienced operators to the point that even QF/ANZ will lose their appeal.
Thread Starter
how low can you go with the matrix of components (hours/experience, training, CRM exposure, multi crew ops etc etc) for the PIC in the LHS....accompanied by their trained monkey??
In the years to come, I expect we'll see more and more commuting contrac