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Old 8th Oct 2017, 02:27   #261 (permalink)
 
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The task for Australian pilots is to recognise that this is a structural (somewhat self fulfilling) shortage.

As Curtain Twitcher kindly posted, the Achilles heel of the model is the 'unlimited supply'.

Every adversarial structure erected by the corporate sphere (in aviation's case) the Ian Oldmeadow (Qantas) model borrows heavily on this. Jetstar ringfenced Qantas mainline and as Peter Gregg (former CFO) testified in a parliamentary joint hearing that JQ will add 'competitive wage tension' Perhaps the 2011 grounding of Qantas reinforces the 1989 meme, but against falling supply, even O'Leary is on bended knee. Eventually in a market with global supply, Australia will catch up.

Having read the Qantas thread on recruitment, I am positive the HR capture has occurred.

The shortage throughout GA is likely to infect firstly the regional airlines, my hunch is that Qlink, Rex and Cobham will struggle to find recruits. As Horizon Airlines (a Q400) operator subsidiary of Alaskan Airlines found in their summer 2017..

Quote:
But American companies don't have a shortage of people. They have a shortage of wages, benefits, and training. Companies could fix that problem, but they haven't.
Take Horizon Air, a regional airline that services the Pacific Northwest, which the Seattle Times reports is "cutting its flight schedule this summer because of a severe shortage of pilots for its Q400 turboprop planes.
Whilst there will always be pilots too scared to read up on what has occurred elsewhere and will comfort themselves with the mantra Straya is different, it is not.

  • Ask a flying school how many commercial students are trained now versus 15 years ago?
  • Ask a GA charter operator how many applicants hang around a season or two in the Kimberly or Darwin, sweeping hangers and washing planes
  • Ask CASA how many Commercial licences are granted in Australia year on year. Compare FY17 to FY00.
The shortage is not a cyclical one, it has been building since the baby boomers were born. It has big ramifications for asset prices and indeed labour unit cost. Given the barriers to entry an aviation career presents due time ,commitment and expense is it any wonder that the negative feedback loop of constant downward pressure on terms and conditions, poor work life balance sees a lack of supply?


O'Leary enjoyed the narrative, Qantas' Joyce and Clifford are well known to detest their pilots too. Like O'Leary they enjoy the snide remarks, but the reality is that pilots are a valuable component of a dynamic people business.


De commissioning an adversarial model is like removing asbestos; something that takes patience, commitment and time. Ryanair will face huge resistence if they attempt to do so. Their pilots are well aware of it.



Australian airlines have time to change but will not do a thing until schedule pressure requires them to act. Do not think for a moment they will ever telegraph that the schedules are a problem. I would watch the QLink schedule for the Southern Summer
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Old 8th Oct 2017, 04:14   #262 (permalink)
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Ask CASA how many Commercial licences are granted in Australia year on year. Compare FY17 to FY00.
I would be interested to know the answer if anyone can help. I have spent a few minutes searching the web and found a graph showing that in 2000 there were just over 6000 ATPLs in Australia and in 2005 there were 6500 ATPL's in Australia but that is all I can find.
Can anyone direct me to better information?
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Old 8th Oct 2017, 04:19   #263 (permalink)
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I found this in a news article relating to New Zealand numbers
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Figures from the Civil Aviation Authority showed the number of commercial and air transport pilots it approved between 2009 and 2016 had fallen from 709 to 386.
Halving the number of licenses issued while the number of airline sectors being flown increases at about 8% per annum and the retiring pilot numbers increase has got to bite at some stage I guess.
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Old 8th Oct 2017, 05:01   #264 (permalink)
 
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Compare the annual statistics for Flight Crew Licences in CASA's annual reports, CASA website probably has the past reports published for those interested.

Whatever the figures state with regards to CPL and ATPL issues, be aware that some of the initial licence issues would have been foreign students.
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Old 8th Oct 2017, 05:13   #265 (permalink)
 
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My local Aeroclub produced 1 CPL last year and 3 PPLs. The figure when I joined it in 2007 was 10 and 20. They made 2 instructors redundant and sold a couple of aircraft last year to avoid going bankrupt.

Would I be correct in saying it will be easier getting jobs as a CPL going forward as next to nobody is learning to fly?
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Old 8th Oct 2017, 07:54   #266 (permalink)
 
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Originally Posted by PoppaJo View Post
My local Aeroclub produced 1 CPL last year and 3 PPLs. The figure when I joined it in 2007 was 10 and 20. They made 2 instructors redundant and sold a couple of aircraft last year to avoid going bankrupt.

Would I be correct in saying it will be easier getting jobs as a CPL going forward as next to nobody is learning to fly?
Nope, just most students are choosing the sausage factory flying schools with shiny G1000 equipped DA40s who are charged $100K for their training (deferred with fee help) rather than the solid grounding you get from a flying school/aero club with C172s & C182s that will cost you only $60K that you need to pay as you go.

Sad state of affairs....
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Old 8th Oct 2017, 08:26   #267 (permalink)
 
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If indeed there is shortage, then what does an airline achieve by having high minimum experience hours for entry, psychometric testing, sim ride, and a interview where they like to play mind games, and thats just the airlines that squeeze it into 1 day, never mind the 2 days worth experience.
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Old 8th Oct 2017, 08:38   #268 (permalink)
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Do you think they would get just as good a result if they didn't have a sim ride ?
I've seen quite a few candidates that have the HR people fizzing with their brilliance who are obviously unsuitable when put in a sim.
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Old 8th Oct 2017, 09:29   #269 (permalink)
 
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If indeed there is shortage, then what does an airline achieve by having high minimum experience hours for entry, psychometric testing, sim ride, and a interview where they like to play mind games, and thats just the airlines that squeeze it into 1 day, never mind the 2 days worth experience.
Because regardless of the shortage, most airlines will ground planes rather than put sub-par pilots in the RH seat. The standard of Australian pilots is generally regarded as very high, because we set a high standard. Lowering the standard is a slippery slope.

As airline management, would you rather have scheduling issues or a hull loss because of low standard pilots? Only way to counter the low standard of recruits is more training, which costs a whole heap more and often is unachievable because it's illegal to make your training captains work 100hrs a week.
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Old 8th Oct 2017, 09:57   #270 (permalink)
 
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If indeed there is shortage, then what does an airline achieve by having high minimum experience hours for entry, psychometric testing, sim ride, and a interview where they like to play mind games, and thats just the airlines that squeeze it into 1 day, never mind the 2 days worth experience.
The shortage will fundamentally change the recruitment process and indeed alter power balances in airlines. Administration ought be secondary, operational areas of airlines(due to their ability to affect revenue) have been strongly contained by substantial investments in Industrial Relations and Human Resources.These apparatus will not change until they have to.

If one sits and listens to O'Leary, regarding his 'scheduling problems' you saw his tone largely belligerent, mocking, dismissive and confrontational. That time has now passed. The challenge for Ryanair is to unwind all the investment in a model that required ASSUMED unlimited supply.

He now is on bended knee to the pilots. As Gandhi said;


'First they ignore you,then they laugh at you, then they fight you and then you win'
Gandhi

Much downward pressure has been exerted on terms and conditions. HR grew very powerful and I would assume at Qantas HR drive nearly every decision, email and recruitment process as it struggles for relevance.

This shortage is not cyclical, it is structural. The demographic problem is yet to be addressed fully. Labour associations ought be all over it, but if history rhymes, the union movement is always a dollar short and a day late. Ever wondered why?





The U.S. will face a staggering shortage of pilots - Jul. 27, 2017

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/...-next-20-years

The U.S. Is Facing a Disastrous Pilot Shortage


With regard to Framer's comment:

Quote:
I would be interested to know the answer if anyone can help. I have spent a few minutes searching the web and found a graph showing that in 2000 there were just over 6000 ATPLs in Australia and in 2005 there were 6500 ATPL's in Australia but that is all I can find.
Can anyone direct me to better information?
Do you believe that it would be information that airlines would prefer you do not know? My suspicion is just like the data that mysteriously is excluded from certain company annual reports, they would prefer not to telegraph problems, much like schedule cancellations, they will never publish transparent cancellation aggregates due 'crew shortage'. Nor is it in their interest to tell you how light the number of active ATPL licences are and how few licences are actually issued.
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Old 8th Oct 2017, 10:29   #271 (permalink)
 
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If you really want that info, an FOI request to CASA should deliver last years figures at least, but it will cost ya.....
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Old 8th Oct 2017, 11:27   #272 (permalink)
 
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It's not the easiest to find but it isnt completely hidden away either. In the CASA publications, under annual reports, appendices. The 2011-2012 report, here: https://www.casa.gov.au/sites/g/file.../ar1112_p6.pdfhas a table going back a few years, so heres a couple.

From the 2011-2012 report:
In 2007-2008 there were 521 ATPLs issued, and 6564 current. In the same period there were 1352 CPLs issued and 4103 current.
In 2011-2012 there were 472 ATPLs issued, and 6521 current, along with 1052 CPLs issued and 3988 current.

The latest (2015-2016) report here: https://www.casa.gov.au/book-page/ap...ing-statisticsshowed that for 2015-2016 there were 162 ATPLs issued, and 7375 current, and 1048 CPLs issued with 4616 current. Unfortunately the table from the most recent annual report also has a column for 2011-2012 showing 504 ATPLs issued and 7321 current, which is 800 different from the 2011/2012 figures given in the earlier report, so either one or the other or both is completely wrong and noone knows how many ATPL holders are active or issued in any given year. I also dont know how they classify licenceholders as current or not, and a pilot with an ATPL may have moved to a job where they only exercise the privileges of a CPL, or overseas.
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Old 8th Oct 2017, 12:37   #273 (permalink)
 
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Australian operators make their own shortages. One poster commented that they wouldn't want a person in the RHS who couldn't pass a sim check. What about all the people who don't get a sim check because they don't have "500 multi under the IFR" or "MCC completed". Do you really need 500 multi command to sit RHS in a metro, dash 8 or Brasilia? Airlines are narrowing the the applicants to a trickle then complaining there are aren't any suitable candidates!

Last edited by pilotchute; 8th Oct 2017 at 22:13.
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Old 8th Oct 2017, 12:52   #274 (permalink)
 
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Australian operators make their own shortages. One poster commented that they wouldn't want a person in the RHS who couldn't pass a sim check. What about all the people who don't get a sim check because they don't have "500 multi under the IFR"? Or "MCC competed".
Or what about the number who don't get the opportunity for the sim check because the HR girl (who's never set foot in a cockpit) didn't like their face or their "tell me about a time when" story wasn't embellished enough...

I've heard countless stories like this and those ones did have 500 multi IFR!
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Old 8th Oct 2017, 22:08   #275 (permalink)
 
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Or what about the number who don't get the opportunity for the sim check because the HR girl (who's never set foot in a cockpit) didn't like their face or their "tell me about a time when" story wasn't embellished enough...

I've heard countless stories like this and those ones did have 500 multi IFR!
Thiiiiissss
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Old 9th Oct 2017, 00:49   #276 (permalink)
 
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De Flieger

Of those figures, can you determine how many actually stay in oz. I imagine a lot of CPL/ATPL issues would be for overseas students who go back to their sponsor airline. It's a fundamental issue to our current plight. Perhaps the AFAP or similar could make these FOI enquiries to set the record straight.
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Old 9th Oct 2017, 00:50   #277 (permalink)
 
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Or what about the number who don't get the opportunity for the sim check because the HR girl (who's never set foot in a cockpit) didn't like their face or their "tell me about a time when" story wasn't embellished enough...
Perhaps forward thinking airlines will try to wrestle control away from a liberal arts degree holding HR 'manager'??

Perhaps also the minimum hours required will be liberalised. I would be looking for these signals of supply shortage.



Great job De-flieger


Quote:
It's not the easiest to find but it isnt completely hidden away either. In the CASA publications, under annual reports, appendices. The 2011-2012 report, here: https://www.casa.gov.au/sites/g/file.../ar1112_p6.pdfhas a table going back a few years, so heres(sic) a couple.
The question pilots should ask themselves is;

  • Are these new licences issued to Australian students?
  • Are the licence privileges being exercised in Australia?
Sorry No idea, missed your post, we are thinking the same thing...




Quote:
Of those figures, can you determine how many actually stay in oz. I imagine a lot of CPL/ATPL issues would be for overseas students who go back to their sponsor airline. It's a fundamental issue to our current plight. Perhaps the AFAP or similar could make these FOI enquiries to set the record straight.

Labour organisations are not well credentialed when it comes to research, my faith in them is marginal, perhaps a question if asked would get them moving in the right direction.






Last edited by Rated De; 9th Oct 2017 at 00:54. Reason: typo
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Old 9th Oct 2017, 04:00   #278 (permalink)
 
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Originally Posted by Rated De View Post

The question pilots should ask themselves is;

  • Are these new licences issued to Australian students?
  • Are the licence privileges being exercised in Australia?
Over in NZ, the answer to both is a resounding No! In most circumstances anyway. Several Schools here market themselves almost entirely to international students, mostly from India or China. I'm sure it's the same on both sides of the ditch.
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Old 9th Oct 2017, 05:10   #279 (permalink)
 
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Over in NZ, the answer to both is a resounding No! In most circumstances anyway. Several Schools here market themselves almost entirely to international students, mostly from India or China.


You would be suprised how low the number of Australian citizen CPL issues actually is.

It is the same in the USA and Europe.
Ever wonder why some airlines are guaranteeing loans and paying for training again, from ab-initio to airline?

https://www.pilotcareernews.com/brit...lot-programme/


JQ and other bottom feeder airlines who model themselves on Ryanair are by definition in big trouble. Whether paying for endorsements or simulators and uniforms, these cost will instead be something the employer is responsible for again; simply called cost of business.

Those old enough may remember 'On the Beach' which had Australia as the last place unaffected by the nuclear war, but eventually (spoiler alert) the radiation got to Australia. Apologies to Nevil Shute!

This shortage is real, not cyclical and despite Boeing and Airbus marketing pilot costs won't be solved by pilot-less aircraft anytime soon. Whilst it is clear heavily adversarial airlines will not embrace this paradigm shift as a welcome change, it may well be something that is forced upon them.



Sadly for O'Leary et al, unlimited supply is no longer assured.
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Old 9th Oct 2017, 06:04   #280 (permalink)
 
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Because regardless of the shortage, most airlines will ground planes rather than put sub-par pilots in the RH seat
Define `sub-par'?

Aircraft on Ground do not earn revenue.

I would not be prepared to put money on this. Already many airlines are putting pilots with a bare 250 hours into the RHS - have flown with a few.

And, indeed recall a certain pilot (self) with a bare 265 hours went straight into the RHS.
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