Pilot shortage
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Europe
Posts: 1,674
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
In five years time I imagine that rather than paying massive increases in salary the smart Australasian Airlines will give Captains some power to choose how their life is structured by offering choice.
They need to change recruitment practice but most importantly the model that has dominated industrial relations management at most airlines is finished.
Some airlines will offer different paths, some more money.
Simply put, the floor has been found and the company dominance and ebbing away of terms and conditions is finished.
Fair recompense for skill set, time and money is all that was missing. Unlimited supply of pilots cemented an adversarial model. Ryanair at the Apex, Air Asia and even JQ were pushing more and more of the employment cost at the employee as supply outpaced demand. Simulators, uniforms, interviews and even income protection insurance borne by the employee. Airline management loved it!
Demographically, that time is over. They will be dragged into the new paradigm, eventually realising that treating people with respect, consideration and as people rather than labour unit costs is the way forward,
Gordon Bethune showed them at Continental, after that low life era, Rob Fyfe led the way at Air New Zealand and for 50 years Southwest Airlines does it day in, day out; it is after all a people business.
Don't expect the well established parasitic practice known as HR/IR to release its grip without a fight,they will eventually be kept away from the day to day, even performance management of long established employees won't need their self interested escalation (and presence) to be sorted.
Join Date: Sep 1999
Location: Sydney
Posts: 470
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Don't expect the well established parasitic practice known as HR/IR to release its grip without a fight,they will eventually be kept away from the day to day, even performance management of long established employees won't need their self interested escalation (and presence) to be sorted.
They’ve been trying to bring in annual performance reviews for pilots in my outfit for years. They hate they have no say in who gets a shot at command training and they desperately want to control that process. To date they’ve been prevented from getting their sticky little fingers into it. Hopefully that continues.
Join Date: Mar 1999
Location: Someday I will find a place to stop
Posts: 1,021
Likes: 0
Received 18 Likes
on
6 Posts
Because regardless of the shortage, most airlines will ground planes rather than put sub-par pilots in the RH seat. The standard of Australian pilots is generally regarded as very high, because we set a high standard. Lowering the standard is a slippery slope.
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Harbour Master Place
Posts: 662
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Labelled number is Net Change in current ATPL.
- Issued is New ATPL issued with valid medical.
- Net change is difference from previous year.
- Attrition is Change from previous year LESS new Issues.
Source data available on Pastebin https://pastebin.com/b99pizhr in CSV to cut and paste & roll your own charts with the following format:
- Unicode (UTF-16)
- Field delimiter ,
- Text delimiter "
Last edited by CurtainTwitcher; 9th Oct 2017 at 08:53. Reason: Source data added
I actually couldn’t agree with O’Leary more, there will never be a shortage of people wanting to work 18hrs a week for 150k, and should I ever get the opportunity I’ll be straight on to it. In the meantime I guess I’ll just have to stick to flying to make a living...
I have been unfortunate enough to have to listen to a "HR manager" tell me that with aptitude testing and behavioural questioning there is no need for the interviewer to have industry experience in the field being interviewed for.
Just read on the Qlink thread that they can afford to defer someone because the final say is with "Upper Management" as to wether they get put on the hold file. You can pass all the assessments but still get a no. That would tell me there is no "pilot shortage" just yet.
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Australia
Posts: 324
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
In regards to the issued ATPL's, anecdotally I would say very little are issued to Australians each year. This is because at one of the large schools at Moorabbin they have 150 or so students each year of which 70-80% are from overseas and most likely heading to a job overseas. Assuming there are 4-5 other large schools where the same happens, then there are probably lucky to be 150 local pilots who are issued with an ATPL each year. This is all anecdotal and I stand to be corrected, but I don't think I'm too far off the money.
What they really mean by pilot shortage is a shortage of pilots willing to accept crap pay and conditions. That's why the crap GA companies will struggle first, then it will move up the chain. I'm not a pilot, but if I was I don't know which Australian company I'd aspire to work for, as all have the same HR bullsh!t and treat you as a number and not a skilled employee. If I had a choice, I'd go for QF purely for the money.
What they really mean by pilot shortage is a shortage of pilots willing to accept crap pay and conditions. That's why the crap GA companies will struggle first, then it will move up the chain. I'm not a pilot, but if I was I don't know which Australian company I'd aspire to work for, as all have the same HR bullsh!t and treat you as a number and not a skilled employee. If I had a choice, I'd go for QF purely for the money.
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Europe
Posts: 1,674
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
hat's why the crap GA companies will struggle first, then it will move up the chain.
Qantas pilots lost a whole decade where their careers were at best non-existent and at worst declining with all resources quarantined with the JQ experiment, which is IR strategy designed to undermine mainline terms and conditions.
As I mentioned previously, Horizon Air in the US, an Alaskan subsidiary cancelled a large volume of flights due lack of crew. It would seem being on welfare and flying full time is no longer a preferred career path.
Watch to see how Rex and QLink go with their schedules...Of course it will be hidden, but if Europe is the guide (it is demographically driven after all) cancellations will increase until the slow moving corporate removes the obstacles and begins recognising the paradigm has changed.
If you think that JQ was purely set up as an IR strategy then you don't know your recent history. JQ was set up as the low cost counter to Virgin way back in '04. The pilots that started with JQ were already on reduced terms and conditions as Impulse had been bought by QF to counter Virgin. The business plan had already been done with an airline flying 23 A320's on a lower cost base and AJ was a big part of this. So Impulse became Jetstar and the rest is history. Lower terms and conditions than mainline were a by-product not the driving force. Also the MoU has given many QF pilots the opportunity to get into the LHS that they otherwise would not have had without JQ. In addition many S/O's got a RHS that they would have had to wait a long time for.
Many segments of GA are being hit extremely hard at the moment, namely the niche operators such as the SAR, air ambulance and other special mission providers whom struggle to recruit pilots who meet stringent government or client contractual requirements.
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Europe
Posts: 1,674
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
A little disingenuous.
Purely IR? i didn't state that, I said
Whilst it may be public narrative that JQ was to be '23 aircraft' and Qantas pilots were reassured by Geoff Dixon circa 2003, that it was to pincer Virgin I ask simply:
I think you will find that;
As Dixon telegraphed to you in 2005;
'The move comes just days after Qantas said Jetstar would some day be "just as important as the main line" airline.'
'By next year Qantas's low-cost offshoot, Jetstar, plans to fly to Asia, and possibly Europe and North America.'
I am well aware of Mr Joyce's role, Gerry McGowan's offer to Qantas. The opportunities to which you refer would have been those ordinarily afforded to Qantas pilots prior to JQ's creation. As former CFO Gregg also telegraphed to you, in your joint Parliamentary hearing that JQ added 'competitive wage tension' across the group.
Mr Dixon telegraphed the developing or indeed changing strategy a little more stating;
'fuel and people now represented around 60per cent of the Group’s operating costs.“Many airlines are now achieving substantial cost improvements through Chapter 11bankruptcy protection, consolidation and mergers and government support – avenues not available to Qantas.'
Maybe you are correct and all of it is simply coincidence, the historical record may suggest that there was more to JQ than they were prepared to tell you in 2003.
How long Qantas can maintain downward pressure on terms and conditions (unit cost) is the question.
Purely IR? i didn't state that, I said
which is IR strategy designed to undermine mainline terms and conditions.
- how many aircraft is JQ operating now?
- How many ASK do JQ fly?
I think you will find that;
As Dixon telegraphed to you in 2005;
'The move comes just days after Qantas said Jetstar would some day be "just as important as the main line" airline.'
'By next year Qantas's low-cost offshoot, Jetstar, plans to fly to Asia, and possibly Europe and North America.'
I am well aware of Mr Joyce's role, Gerry McGowan's offer to Qantas. The opportunities to which you refer would have been those ordinarily afforded to Qantas pilots prior to JQ's creation. As former CFO Gregg also telegraphed to you, in your joint Parliamentary hearing that JQ added 'competitive wage tension' across the group.
Mr Dixon telegraphed the developing or indeed changing strategy a little more stating;
'fuel and people now represented around 60per cent of the Group’s operating costs.“Many airlines are now achieving substantial cost improvements through Chapter 11bankruptcy protection, consolidation and mergers and government support – avenues not available to Qantas.'
Maybe you are correct and all of it is simply coincidence, the historical record may suggest that there was more to JQ than they were prepared to tell you in 2003.
How long Qantas can maintain downward pressure on terms and conditions (unit cost) is the question.
The pilot shortage situation is the ultimate own goal if you think about it. In their attempt to convince the industry and the traveling public that this is essentially an unskilled pastime that requires no experience, they’ve gutted the general aviation industry that fed them pilots for decades. Why would you start at the bottom when you can go straight in at the top?
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Europe
Posts: 1,674
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The pilot shortage situation is the ultimate own goal if you think about it
They convinced everyone (including new pilots) there are better pastimes. Given the time, expense and acumen required is not in unlimited supply the gaping hole in their model was evident but needed the first waves of demographic retirements to focus attention on their own downfall.
Only thing that will fix this is MONEY and lots of it! Firstly to attract and then retain suitably experienced pilots. Government and corporate clients will need to put a higher dollar value on their contracts if they want their aircraft to fly.
Nearly a decade ago the Chairman of a well known Australian Regional airline stated, “I would rather cut off my right arm than pay my pilots more.”
The result of that infamous statement and intractable mindset was the wholesale decimation of the schedule. In the end it was the GFC and the overnight stoppage of expansion at the Majors that saved their arse. Otherwise the drain would have been terminal.
Get ready for round Two!
The result of that infamous statement and intractable mindset was the wholesale decimation of the schedule. In the end it was the GFC and the overnight stoppage of expansion at the Majors that saved their arse. Otherwise the drain would have been terminal.
Get ready for round Two!
Last edited by KRUSTY 34; 14th Oct 2017 at 00:11.
Nunc est bibendum
I recall on the QF recruitment thread that a number of people who were given rejection emails in March were subsequently invited in for an assessment centre. I wonder if the reasons for those subsequent invitations is related to the subject matter.
Of course, with an impending pilot shortage in Australia, training going flat out at Qantas, new 737 sim on the way, etc, surely an exonerated mic downturn is just months away?
Of course, with an impending pilot shortage in Australia, training going flat out at Qantas, new 737 sim on the way, etc, surely an exonerated mic downturn is just months away?
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Europe
Posts: 1,674
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The business cycle is to what you allude. Convention is the business cycle is around seven years between peaks. We are currently due excessive money printing (Quantitative easing) about eleven years into the cycle and well overdue for a correction..
When is the big question
It is this cycle the IR practitioners (a dark art if ever there was one) use to time their delay to negotiation in order to simultaneously threaten to take away any nominal salary(payment for delay) and drive through concessions. Australian authors have done a lot of work in this field for those inclined to do some research
Organised labour is not really ahead of the cycle, rather they react to implied threats, with the possible exception of ALPA in the USA who with Chapter 11 provisions have some forewarning what is upon them. Much research has been done into the topic and it is well known in corporate circles have to control 'negotiation' with cancelled meetings the norm.
This time however the underlying forces (business cycle) correction may be sufficient to delay the shortage, but it will not be curtailed by a cyclical correction. The hope is that in providing a glimpse from the other side of the curtain, pilots consider the veiled threats and whispers as just that.
When is the big question
It is this cycle the IR practitioners (a dark art if ever there was one) use to time their delay to negotiation in order to simultaneously threaten to take away any nominal salary(payment for delay) and drive through concessions. Australian authors have done a lot of work in this field for those inclined to do some research
Organised labour is not really ahead of the cycle, rather they react to implied threats, with the possible exception of ALPA in the USA who with Chapter 11 provisions have some forewarning what is upon them. Much research has been done into the topic and it is well known in corporate circles have to control 'negotiation' with cancelled meetings the norm.
This time however the underlying forces (business cycle) correction may be sufficient to delay the shortage, but it will not be curtailed by a cyclical correction. The hope is that in providing a glimpse from the other side of the curtain, pilots consider the veiled threats and whispers as just that.