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Qantas non-stop PER to LHR?

Old 22nd Nov 2016, 02:52
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Joyce in todays West...


Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce puts the case for a non-stop service from Perth to London.

About 12 months ago, Qantas first raised the possibility of a non-stop service from Perth to London with our new 787 Dreamliners. It’s an amazing opportunity. No part of Australia has ever had a non-stop link to Europe, so the idea that it could be up and running in just over a year has people on both sides of the world excited. And the maths shows why they’re behind it.

A study by Deloitte Access Economics found that the Perth- London flight would deliver up to $140 million a year to WA from tourist spending. It would also create about 330 new local jobs each year. All up, the report estimates this one flight would boost gross State product by up to $722 million over the first decade.
Over time, we’d look at other direct routes like Perth to Paris or to Frankfurt, each delivering a boost to WA. The vision is to ultimately turn Perth into a hub that brings in people from around the country for an onward flight to Europe. Just like people travel to Dubai and Singapore to connect to their ultimate destination. To make all this work, we need Perth Airport’s help. Specifically, we need their permission and support to operate our domestic and international flights under the one roof.

The alternative is to fly Australians to Perth, then put them on a bus between terminals, and then put them on another plane. This adds complexity and connection time. The benefit of a single shot to Europe is, well, shot. Faced with this, travellers will choose smoother transfer options through the Middle East or Asia rather than travelling via Perth.

We understand that Perth Airport ultimately wants to relocate all flights — international and domestic — under one roof at T1. And we support their vision. But the airport’s own master plan says this option won’t be ready until about 2023 because a lot of infrastructure needs to be built.

The Perth-London opportunity opens up in 12 months, when our first B787s arrive. That’s why we’re asking Perth Airport for support to operate our international and domestic flights out of our existing terminals in the meantime. To put it plainly, Perth- London will not happen unless we can operate out of a single terminal.

Unfortunately, yesterday’s comments from Perth Airport’s chief executive show that we’ve struggled to convince them it’s all worth it. A non-stop route seems to have become a dead end. If we can’t obtain the airport’s permission and support in coming weeks, the aircraft earmarked for the Perth-London service will have to be committed elsewhere. That means starting discussions with airports on the east coast and delaying a Perth-London service for up to a decade.

Over the years, Qantas has shown the impact that a pioneering new route can have. It would be a big loss if we’re not able to add Perth-London to this list.

And a real shame if all the support from government, industry and the general public is undone by Perth Airport.

Alan Joyce is Qantas chief executive
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Old 22nd Nov 2016, 02:57
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If we can’t obtain the airport’s permission and support in coming weeks, the aircraft earmarked for the Perth-London service will have to be committed elsewhere. That means starting discussions with airports on the east coast and delaying a Perth-London service for up to a decade.
What happened to Darwin? Is that not on the cards at all?
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Old 22nd Nov 2016, 04:19
  #103 (permalink)  
 
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More here:

W
ESTERN Australia could be poised to lose a potential direct flight from Perth to London.

Qantas said Perth Airport must agree to its proposal for a new terminal in coming weeks, or risk delaying the new route by up to 10 years.
It wants to fly one of its new 787 Dreamliners from the western terminal of the airport, however, the terminal in question needs a $25 million upgrade.
Qantas? Perth to London non-stop flights under reconsideration due to Perth Airport building delay
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Old 22nd Nov 2016, 07:57
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The delivery schedule will see the first aircraft tied up in flying and the first routes are not from Perth they are east coast to the USA. A little misleading to say the opportunity opens up in 12 months. It will take around three years to have a fleet of 8.

Deloittes often do 'research' for Qantas pointing out economic impacts, they are among a bunch of big accounting firms on the payroll..

"Unfortunately, yesterday’s comments from Perth Airport’s chief executive show that we’ve struggled to convince them it’s all worth it. A non-stop route seems to have become a dead end. If we can’t obtain the airport’s permission and support in coming weeks, the aircraft earmarked for the Perth-London service will have to be committed elsewhere. That means starting discussions with airports on the east coast and delaying a Perth-London service for up to a decade."

  • Alan you seem to forget the airline was in 'terminal decline' five years ago. It was resurrected miraculously by you and your mignons. Ignoring fuel and depreciation of course, A dead airline in 2011 to the world's fastest transformation in just a year....Amazing that.
  • Red Q was going to be based in Singpaore, no Malaysia (who knows where) flying A320 in J class to Asia, only to be hastily abandoned
  • Given that you apparently needed AUD$3 billion in 2013 to suddenly not need it in two months
  • Given the ACCC rejected your notion of terminal decline, but gave you an EK alliance anyway
  • Given there will be over 550 787 flying when Qantas get 1,
It is probably fair enough that misty eyed claims of thwarting a game changing service that 'may' or' could' include additional Rome Frankfurt and Paris requires a little more PROOF than strong arming Perth airport through the perennial Chairman's lounge member Geoffrey Thomas in the West...
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Old 22nd Nov 2016, 11:49
  #105 (permalink)  
 
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Let's get back to basics and ignore the negative nitty gritty. Is there demand for a direct PER-LHR service ?
Undeniably yes for QF patrons in WA and SA who want to avoid the gulf states and/or backtracking to MEL or SYD or taking codeshare flights on EK. Even if it involves a short across airport bus trip ala SYD. IT WILL HAPPEN but maybe not overnight.
I would expect load factors to be surprisingly good. Forget the crap about Paris etc.
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Old 22nd Nov 2016, 17:01
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As a Brit my thoughts on the potential for inbound European tourism are mixed.

It is true that the sunbathing British tourist has seen a reduction in options over the last couple of years since Turkey and North Africa became seen by many as being too unsafe. That said, in summer season the market is saturated with cheap LCC options from all major UK airports to destinations accross Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, Greece and Cyprus etc.

Northern hemisphere winter is obviously the logical time for Brits to visit Australia, when the UK is dark and cold from November to March and you're basking in the southern sun. Nowadays, short-medium haul options for sunny weather in these months is more or less limited to the Canary Islands unless you are prepared to fly long haul.

For the tourist that is prepared to fly further, Britain is only 8-9 hours from the Florida and the Caribbean. How is a (more expensive?) 17.5 hour flight to Australia going to compete with those options?

Sure, Australia is a beautiful country and is a great destination for the British particularly. It feels like a home from home in many ways and there are of course over a million British living down under. But, how much inbound tourism will a direct flight really generate that doesn't already travel to Australia via DXB, SIN or HKG etc.?
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Old 22nd Nov 2016, 19:09
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Didn't BA at one point do LHR-PER in a 777? Or am I confused with something else?
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Old 22nd Nov 2016, 19:19
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17.5 hours in nine abreast economy.....

With a seat pitch like a domestically configured 737 it is a winner for sure, just like Red Q, right Alan?


The point is in this discussion is that Perth Airport ( a private monopoly) refuting the claims of QF PR spin.
There are as yet no aircraft, no orders for more and the first delivery takes place in 12 months. A total fleet of 8 in three years.
Until QF comes up with something more than hot air, what do they as a two bit international player expect?

As Oneyre says " Forget the crap about Paris etc"
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Old 22nd Nov 2016, 22:05
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morno.
In 2006 a BA B777-200 (garden variety with 94,200 kg fuel tanks) with Capt Rod Mitchell in command and 19 other crew flew nonstop from Brussels to Melbourne in 18hr 45mn. The flight was for Tony Blair and about 90 hangars on to attend the Commonwealth Games. Imagine the endurance for the 200ER with 137,460 kg fuel tanks and the 200LR with 145,538 kg fuel tanks (assuming same payload)
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Old 22nd Nov 2016, 22:20
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Slightly off topic but can someone advise the A380, A330 and B773 alternates for PER.
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Old 22nd Nov 2016, 23:45
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We use ADL for a 380.
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 00:14
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There is no doubt that Qantas is serious about this route and they want it to go ahead- for the right price. I can understand Qantas pushing Perth Airports pretty hard to make the connections easy. That just makes good business sense. The signalling back and forward is part of the game these pelicans play.

Sure it's still 18 months away from having enough jets for a daily service but isn't it good planning to be looking at these things now- particularly if you're very keen to get it up?

The network people at Qantas reckon they can make great money with this jet on multiple routes. Some of those routes include PER- Europe. Those in QF should ask various managers on their thoughts re a PER 787 base. Highly informative.
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 02:39
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Keg - a voice of reason in the wilderness - well said.
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 03:32
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Last time one checked, flight operations do not buy aircraft. There may be many places people dream of sending these jets, but they are simply that, dreams. Unless someone here has market sensitive information, which according to ASX listing rule 3.1 requires disclosure to the market first, there are eight jets. That is all!

Given the corporate stiffs at fort fumble, have committed a few of the measly aircraft order to east coast and USA flying the rest of this is pure conjecture, right up there with Red Q.
Are Qantas media are writing press releases to be distributed through Pprune?
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 04:28
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Yeah it's not like they have options for more or anything
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 05:17
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Option...aft_purchasing)

Last time I checked an aircraft option is simply a small commitment Options 'may' be firmed into orders, or they can be cancelled. They benefit the manufacturer and analysts see it as evidence of sales, airlines also like them as they spell growth, but they are not FIRM commitments to buy and take delivery.

I am not in any particular camp, I detest a private monopoly who has not built any infrastructure. In the case of Perth Airport they sold off previously earmarked expansion land for a quick and handsome profit. Damn the traveling public and the airlines.

However,
Qantas have not firmed any options on aircraft unless I missed an announcement today. The AGM a month ago carried no mention of any further capital expenditure on Qantas aircraft. Management seem quite happy to burn more fuel per ASK than their competitors whilst the price is low. The also have a gearing issue and substantial off balance sheet debt that may preclude any purchases for a while. The JQ wet dream cost the company dearly.

Am happy that the company has ceased bashing and denigrating staff and trashing the brand, but an aircraft commitment is far different than an option on one, but one can live in hope.
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 05:30
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If QF don't grow their fleet, the pilot career prospects in OZ will forever be grim.
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 06:11
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Don,

On the money, the 'lost decade' at Qantas is widely spoken of.

2004 a JQ new start as indicated in the MOU is now a 787 Captain.
2004 a Qantas new hire is now a 737 FO.

The 'JQ to the world' strategy was an abject failure, the lockout and biggest manufactured financial loss Qantas' history worked for a bit, but Alan didn't achieve much.
Is it any wonder most pilots just ignore communication from 'management' and do their day to day thing?

Once the trust was broken (management chose to do that) and with the current bunch of insipid fools remaining for the 'transformation' no amount of mandatory 'next step together crap'days, implied threats or such will ever repair the trust.
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 06:23
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The signalling back and forward is part of the game these pelicans play.
Absolutely.

$25 to $45 Million. Ok. Come to a deal that splits the cost between, Qantas, Perth Airports, WA State Government and the Federal Government.

At least call Qantas on their bluff (if it is), and maybe put conditions on the funding if you can. i.e.; start these services, or announce a start date/tickets on sale date inside 18-36 months or we scrap the lot... (?).

In any case, these services are potentially worth multiples per year in Traveller spending and Jobs to the WA and Aussie economy, compared to this initial outlay ($25 to $45 million for a possible potential $100 million plus annual benefit to the wider economy EACH YEAR for each new service). To not at least come to some arrangement to allow these services to potentially go ahead the way Qantas is saying they are willing to, is lunacy.
Given the sheer amounts of Taxpayer money that is pissed up the wall in this Country on completely useless crap (i.e.; in 2011-13 the WA Government spent $250 million dollars to bring Muja Power Stations A & B out of mothballs only to re-mothball them again without a single kilowatt being generated); surely finding some funding for this is not a great stretch.

there are eight jets. That is all!
Yes, disappointing no more have been announced yet, and they need many more of the remaining 45 options/purchase rights to be firmed up for the success of the organisation into the future.

8 aircraft should be enough however, to do the rumoured initial routes of MEL-LAX, BNE-LAX-JFK, and still have 3 jets or so left for a daily (or near to it) MEL-PER-LHR.
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 06:30
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I guess the mel-lax will push the arvo jumbo off the route to... hkg?
Freeing up more 330s? Seoul doing the rounds atm
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