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Qantas non-stop PER to LHR?

Old 23rd Nov 2016, 06:45
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Plus the 3 788s from Jetstar!
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 06:50
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More Capacity into HKG seems to be the desire if the rumblings are true. First 789s onto MEL-LAX might make sense as it could allow for a second Daily and frees up the Jumbo for HKG at the same time...

Spare 330s were rumoured to be wanted for Perth -Sing (and Perth - Honkers) not long ago as well, not sure if thats still the case.
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 07:06
  #123 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Tuck Mach
Last time one checked, flight operations do not buy aircraft.
No. Qantas buys jets. Part of that decision is influenced by 'networks' and where they reckon they can make money with the jets.

Along te way networks tell the rest of the business what they're looking at so the rest of the business can do some planning and start to look at things a fair way out. As part of that process there are some interesting discussions happening about PER, the 787 and potential bases.

Of course, nothing is set in stone and they'd be idiots to put something in stone with such a long lead time. We'd rightly criticise them if they did and then WWIII hits or another GFC hits and they'd firmly committed to PER- LHR 12 months out from aeroplane arrival.

Originally Posted by Tuck Mach
There may be many places people dream of sending these jets, but they are simply that, dreams. Unless someone here has market sensitive information, which according to ASX listing rule 3.1 requires disclosure to the market first, there are eight jets. That is all!
Yes, of course. That's the decision as it stands and is the official position. You don't think someone in engineering isn't crunching the numbers on how to integrate 8-50 aircraft into the fleet? You don't think someone in Flight Ops isn't working on how to train 8-50ish aeroplanes worth of crew? You don't think network is looking at where they can send additional airframes? I'd be criticising them if they weren't doing this sort of advance planing. Heck, I HAVE criticised them for stuffing up the time frame for pilot recruitment and promotional training leading to shortages in multiple categories and aircraft.

I know Qantas have done some seriously daft stuff over the years (and you've mentioned Red Q a number of times now) but everything they're doing with the 787 so far looks to this humble line driver as the normal planning and due diligence all airlines go through with the intro of a new type.

QUOTE=Tuck Mach;9586980]
Given the corporate stiffs at fort fumble, have committed a few of the measly aircraft order to east coast and USA flying the rest of this is pure conjecture, right up there with Red Q.[/QUOTE]

The planning for the 787 looks significantly more advanced than the planning for Red Q.
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 10:07
  #124 (permalink)  
 
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Bare with me, I'm not about to say what I'm saying is a bad thing.

I honestly believe that inside of Qantas there is no desire to grow mainline flying by anything greater that 3%. We have 53(I Think) orders and options. Originally we had 75 orders for 738. Yes we took them all although some went to QFNZ or whatever they are called. We may take all 53 we may not but the question will be what will we quietly retire. The 744 the 330 are getting old although granted just refurbished. I don't know the 8 take us to the end of 2018 . The other 45 I believe is 2023. How old are you then ?

I believe that the direction QF will take is a end of line market boutique operator who can easily move a small dedicated fleet to the most profitable direct service to maximise profit. And a very healthy domestic operation with the ability to remove capacity quickly to limit losses. The bulk of the risk is in aircraft, they can wear the employee costs through leave etc.

Qantas has shown that their priority is a "virtual airline supporting a frequent flyer program" . Credit due they have used Jetstar to stop Virgins mid 2000s assault on the LCC market Segment.

I would love to see Qantas back to operating 5 daily services to London Pre 2008, and Frankfurt and everywhere else. I believe though that that would result in a dangerous position should the next world "unknown " happen next week.

So what does this have to do with PER /LHR? Perhaps a daily service I could believe. It's more a marketing thing. Back to Paris Rome etc and out of Perth. that's just plain Bull****.
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 19:52
  #125 (permalink)  
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29 A330s I reckon will eventually be replaced by 787s. A couple of 744s may be replaced in the short term (thinking SFO and YVR type of current routes) but suspect longe term they'll be looking at the 777X variants to really do the work of the 744 and A380- starting from about 2022 for the next 5-7 years for the arrival of 20-30 777X. Given the price of the 787s it'd have to take a every significant global downturn to NOT take them.
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Old 24th Nov 2016, 08:59
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Unless the toilets are disinfected and the floors swabbed out every 15 minutes for the whole journey, then the toilet stench will really be on the nose for the 19 hour trip.
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Old 25th Nov 2016, 01:04
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How do you fancy getting up at 6:00am and sitting in a chair in a confined space between two total strangers until midnight ? That's what a direct flight will be like for economy passengers. The airfare would need to be half of the closest competitors to make me even consider it.

I'd take one of the ME3 and have a night in the airside transit hotel enroute to make the journey bearable.
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Old 25th Nov 2016, 01:55
  #128 (permalink)  
 
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Keg

Have you seen the seating config in EY? Extended time in 17.2" rock hard seats that recline up to 6" is probably not the way to go IMHO.
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Old 25th Nov 2016, 11:53
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The config is big on flat bed J class seats and premium Y, I doubt if management cares much about the punters down the back too much.
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Old 25th Nov 2016, 18:38
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'Qantas has shown that their priority is a "virtual airline supporting a frequent flyer program'

Absolutely correct AussieFO.
The grand plan was JQ to the world. Alan's big dream of Low Wage everywhere was dead before it started. Didn't stop the fools taking the JQ 'airline' from 36 airframes when the little fella was handed the big chair to over 120.
Qantas lost a strikingly similar amount of airframes...Bruce (our BCG man) even reported that LCC long haul wouldn't work. He was quickly on his way...

As to the planning for Red Q, the planning for that was well advanced commencing in 2009, just after Alan had the office keys. It wasn't abandoned until 2011, having been taken to the board in mid 2010. It was a Boston Consulting Group project, another Alan pipe dream.
The geo-political problems and megaphone diplomacy was the problem externally and the Sale act domestically. Just because one wanders the flight operations offices these days does not necessarily mean they are in the loop. Sadly for flight operations it is a department among many, no longer a priority. The self serving nature of management ensures it will be ever thus.
The split of the AOC involved many millions of dollars and what did that amount to? Another abandoned project. Engineering and networks can imagine all they like, when Qantas commit the capital for more firm deliveries, that will be a decision made in corporate and not likely to be reported by anyone here until after the event.
Reading a balance sheet and understanding accounting nuances is probably something most pilots don't do, but the reality is a lot of debt (off balance sheet) and a precariously placed gearing ratio are real indications that 767 (oops 787 nirvana) is a while off....
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Old 25th Nov 2016, 20:21
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Figures as of the end of the FY15/16 show QF Shareholder Value of 48% of what it was worth in 2008 even with a moderately high share price. What are those bonuses based on? Tell me again why you would buy your own shares back($1.3B) when you desperately need new Jets? Maybe a A350-900 ULR would be better than B787/A380s!
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Old 25th Nov 2016, 23:58
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QF are in the same position as most of the legacy airlines around the world, their lower end is being eaten up by low cost carriers and their higher end by the ME3 and Asian airlines.

With the internet, price comparison websites and email offers the average passenger can book a flight with his mobile phone just as easily as ordering a pizza. I've had deals on confirmed tickets which were better than staff travel standby.

There is very little growth potential left in the legacy airlines outside of China and the Middle East, one or two new destinations a year is doing well. In Europe, Ryanair went from a Banderante to bigger than British Airways.

The whole business environment is changing with online shopping vs the high street, Airbnb vs hotels, Uber vs taxis etc. Soon the Australian car industry will be a memory and we'll all be driving imports. The general public liked Holden and wanted them to keep going but didn't do what was necessary to ensure this by actually going out and buying the cars they produced.
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Old 26th Nov 2016, 00:31
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Tuck Mach, your post reminds me of something I was reading recently:
The Iron Law of Bureaucracy

Saturday, September 11, 2010

Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy states that in any bureaucratic organization there will be two kinds of people:
First, there will be those who are devoted to the goals of the organization. Examples are dedicated classroom teachers in an educational bureaucracy, many of the engineers and launch technicians and scientists at NASA, even some agricultural scientists and advisors in the former Soviet Union collective farming administration.

Secondly, there will be those dedicated to the organization itself. Examples are many of the administrators in the education system, many professors of education, many teachers union officials, much of the NASA headquarters staff, etc.
The Iron Law states that in every case the second group will gain and keep control of the organization. It will write the rules, and control promotions within the organization.
Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy
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Old 26th Nov 2016, 02:06
  #134 (permalink)  
 
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While all this negativity may be a very accurate reflection of recent Qantas history, the point is, it's history. RedQ is hardly an issue worth worrying about now. The withdrawal from countless routes was painful and the replacement of QF with JQ on those routes indeed rubbed salt into the wound, but those occurrences appear to have stopped and in some case are being reversed.

In the last few years QF have added or returned to routes such as SFO, HND, YVR, DPS, BNE-NRT, MEL-NRT, OOL and HTI. They have FINALLY committed to the 789 and are looking at new and innovative routes such as the one this topic refers.

These are good things.
While all of us at Qantas have been burnt by some disastrous decisions by our, at times, incompetent management there is light on the horizon. It is frustrating to sit on a flight deck and listen to a colleague go on about all the doom and gloom scenarios that are possible and reiterate all the ills that have been perpetrated in the past. For all their insightful commentary on the past mistakes of Qantas they seem to be unable or unwilling to look at the positives that are slowly building around the place.

Yes, there are only 8 789's ordered so far but it is extremely likely this will be increased. While the orders may not have come quickly enough for some, QF have always stated they won't place a firm order until it is absolutely necessary, ie. until progress payments come due, so as to not be locked-in if conditions deteriorate. I gather that October next year is the deadline for the next tranch so a further order mid next year would be my guess.
The good news is the next aircraft are due to come at a faster rate than the first 8. According to AusBT:
Qantas has the option to buy 15 more Dreamliners with a staggered delivery schedule through to 2020, while an additional 30 Boeing 787s are pencilled in as 'purchase rights' without fixed delivery timeframe to 2025.
As to who will sit in economy for 17 hours, I doubt they will have any problem filling the seats. I imagine before direct flights from SIN/BKK to LHR people thought a non-stop flight would be too long. Probably thought Australia direct USA would be too long without a stop in HNL too. But in the end people get used to flying for a couple of hours longer and go for the opportunity to cut 3 hours off the total journey time.
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Old 26th Nov 2016, 07:23
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Beer baron, it depends from what seat the world is viewed. Those comfortably entrenched in the (old long haul contract) LHS see optimism. Colleagues of yours who came for a career and ended up with a job, probably don't view the spin associated with the 'wish list' of Perth to LHR in quite the same light. As I replied to you on another forum, since the little fella got the reins QF dropped circa 80 airframes and JQ grew by 80..A long way to parity one would think.

Given that the 744 is ok at USD$45 a barrel it struggles against the big twins no matter what else management carries on about: Flying the same seats with four engines burns much more fuel a than a large twin: Qantas' disadvantage is of its own making... ...Any additional airframes are not growth airframes, they will replace existing aircraft should either a shock come on the demand side of an oil price shock, both are possible.

busdriver007 makes an excellent point.
With no forward earning upgrades, wasting share holder funds pumping a higher share price does not serve the interest of the shareholders.....

It does serve the interest of some...

Forbes Welcome

NPS ( net promoter score) is the preferred measurement for a lot of airline bonuses.Alan loves it..Any bets where it came from?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_Promoter

Your friendly management consultants...
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Old 26th Nov 2016, 23:23
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Beer baron, it depends from what seat the world is viewed. Those comfortably entrenched in the (old long haul contract) LHS see optimism.
Mach, there are some that have been very lucky in this outfit, but many have been through a lot during their "career". I don't know where you sit in the system, or even if you do sit in the system, but you ain't Robinson Crusoe.

Last edited by SandyPalms; 26th Nov 2016 at 23:48. Reason: Name
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Old 27th Nov 2016, 00:48
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Originally Posted by Metro man
QF are in the same position as most of the legacy airlines around the world, their lower end is being eaten up by low cost carriers and their higher end by the ME3 and Asian airlines.

The general public liked Holden and wanted them to keep going but didn't do what was necessary to ensure this by actually going out and buying the cars they produced.
the general public got sick and tired of GMHs 'built in obsolescence" which meant every time they took their car in for service, they also had to fork over a few hundred dollars for "worn out parts" in contrast to Toyota/Mazda etc who took their cars in for service and only paid for the oil/filter.

Qantas are treating their customers like dirt, the new aircraft are going to their low cost airline (Jetstar), and loyal Qantas customers, pay extra for the privilege of old tired aircraft. Unless you have "status" Qantas treat you even worse, so why would anyone fly with them?

Basically the ME3 and Asian airlines just have to exist to take custom away from Qantas.
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Old 27th Nov 2016, 01:36
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Qantas are treating their customers like dirt, the new aircraft are going to their low cost airline (Jetstar), and loyal Qantas customers, pay extra for the privilege of old tired aircraft.
Really???

The new aircraft are actually "going" to Qantas (789). The next newest aircraft (788) have already gone to Jetstar.

The entire A330 fleet is being refurbished with new seats and entertainment that have been well reviewed.
The entire 737 fleet has been refreshed and now has either streaming or in-seat entertainment. Some of the aircraft are less than 3 years old.
Both fleets are getting high speed, free internet installed as we speak.
The 747 fleet had a new cabin installed within the last 5 years.
And the 380, which is not a bad product as it is, is already being looked at for it's mid-life refurbishment in the next 2 years.

It's not the greatest airline around, sure. It's hard to be when you are owned by shareholders and not deep pocketed governments. But the quoted comments seem to once again ignore the reality of the situation.

Last edited by Beer Baron; 27th Nov 2016 at 02:22.
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Old 27th Nov 2016, 07:43
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SandyPalms you are quite right, the trajectory of the career at the once proud national carrier has been less than stellar in the 'lost decade'.

What suprises me is that it is exactly the same management that manufactured a decline, to use as the pretext for the grounding and lockout that included people not involved in any industrial action. It is the same bunch of people telling the staff all is finished and the loss of trust and trashing of people, professions and the company is all behind us.

As for the investment in 'product' at QF that is a given and long over due.
Have a look at the amount of aircraft JQ were given, (nearly 80) look at the expansion in fleet growth then compare it to the revenue these additional aircraft generated. Even with opaque accounting standards, JQ as a 'group' has largely static revenue for an additional 80 odd aircraft. Not bad for eight years work Alan? Mind you a KPI for Alan was 'growth' of JQ (not profit mind you)..Mission accomplished!

The biggest 'loss' in Qantas history was a fleet impairment, something completely in the control of the management.Many analysts asked why the fleet value was held as it was.. That 'loss' was sufficient to suck most of the unions in, then of course the magic pudding transformation..

The 'brand' Qantas was seriously damaged with their antics in 2011 (estimated to have lost them 10%) The 'JQ to the world' concept only existed in the IR world and in Alan's brain, it failed to fire, so what else were they going to do? Spend more and JQ franchises?

The Perth airport story is more of the same, they are long on spin short on substance. If Qantas really were serious about Perth to London the negotiations would not be conducted by that chairman's lounge member and PR shill Geoffrey Thomas in the West Australian.
The 787 fleet is at least three years away from 8 aircraft and the Qantas statements contain not a WILL, they are all 'may' and 'could'. As I said, not a fan of monopoly airport owners, but if I were them I would expect a little more commitment than fluff from the boy that cried wolf!
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Old 27th Nov 2016, 08:01
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You make a number of fair points Tuck. So here's the thing. It looks like QF management realise the reality of a number of the points you make and are actively looking to reverse some of them- like trying to expand the revenue (and profit) pie by expanding mainline.

Have they thrown all their cards on the table and laid out chapter and verse how it's to be done? No.

However from being the only business being spruiked back from 2008-2013, now you rarely hear of JQ- particularly the international side. Mainline is returning to routes previously vacated and taken up by JQ. Does not that indicate to you a change in the direction of the 'strategy'?

I suspect the negotiations re PER are ongoing but also suspect that Perth Airports are refusing to budge. Hence the publicity it's received in recent times. Of course, I don't know this for certain but neither you can back home your implied assertion that the negotiations are being conducted only by megaphone diplomacy.

You've now made the same number of points a number of times under your current pseudonym but I'm not sure what you're point is with your recent posts. You've not suggested any alternative strategy. Qantas have said lots of 'may' and 'should' about the mainline 787s and they're obviously looking at multiple scenarios to work out what way they could/ should go and how that fits in with their overall strategy. You've not even suggested there is something wrong with the current strategy of the multiple route options they're considering. What would you have them say differently? Commit to PER-LHR now and have Perth Airports tell QF to 'suck it up' with the transfer between terminals?
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