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MERGED: Alan's still not happy......

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MERGED: Alan's still not happy......

Old 13th Feb 2014, 10:04
  #2221 (permalink)  
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Australia
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First of all. I don't think QF will be making any pilots redundant anytime soon. Unfortunately I can't make the same assumption for non operational staff.

I've posted before. That Q currently had 2.1 managerial or supervisory staff for every one other employee. That's were the culls will happen.

Q are losing about the same rates of pilots per year in retirements to their current pilot surplus. They have held a pilot surplus of up to 190 pilots at its peak since 2009 excluding those of leave of absence.

And in informal passing discussions I've heard the comment that pilots within Q are just so darn expensive to be made redundant.

Whilst Qantas Management continue to babble on regarding labour costs. Experienced pilots can pick up a gig flying for Asian competitors and receive $18.5K USD net in their back pocket each months.

As for last on first off. Yes. Its written in the FWD and financially it also favours the company with redundancy payouts.

Take for example a 767 FO versus an A330 SO. At current payout figures the company would have to pay the FO close to $65k plus accrued annual leave compared to the SO around $18k plus leave. That's for the most junior of 767 FO ranks. Start making some senior 767 FO's redundant and were taking over $100k.

As for the JQ MOU.

There is a clause in the QF FWD that states the company will redeploy prior to redundancy. This is not a RIN redeployment. As the RIN is carried out prior to redundancies. So its a redeployment to other parts if the business.

Another part of the business is JQ, of which there's an MOU and as per my previous link. JQ are advertising for pilots.

For JQ to change there mind about recruitment. They would have to put on hold their recruitment for the period AIPA and the company were in discussions about CR. then also for the period they provide notice to the individual pilot (another 3 months).

Q would then put themselves in a position where they have given 3 months notice to a pilot of an impending CR and have that pilot continuing to fly for that 3 month period. Recall the lockout. Alan grounded the Airline because of a risk assesment about a possible lockout. Ouch.

If JQ/QF play silly buggers and put JQ recruitment on hold. For the period they made QF pilots redundant. Only to commence recruiting straight after. I think you'd see QF in court for transmission of business.

As for taking QF pilots back. They come back in seniority order when recruitment happens again.

I would think it would be difficult for the company to be recruiting newbies in JQ whilst QF pilots are made redundant and awaiting a call up per the FWD and a "redeployment" to JQ possible due recruiting requirements. But that's untested.

As for JQ NZ. They aren't party to the MOU. They are however part of the Qantas group. So I would envisage AIPA would discuss redeployment to another group airline prior to redundancy in mainline as required by the FWD.

I think the redundancy discussion is academic anyway. The Qantas group will need pilots with the forecasted growth rates of airlines in the Asia pacific.

I also believe the only reason QF haven't recruited in the last 5 years is they haven't got their B scale for pilots yet.

If they get a B scale the training will be running at capacity to play catch up with their competitors.

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Old 13th Feb 2014, 12:30
  #2222 (permalink)  
Join Date: Feb 2011
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I also believe the only reason QF haven't recruited in the last 5 years is they haven't got their B scale for pilots yet.
Bingo MC! Well said.

Enter the 787.....................The benchmark for the B scale.
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Old 13th Feb 2014, 13:50
  #2223 (permalink)  
Join Date: Feb 2011
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VH Cheer-up wrote:
I have met him and can vouch that he's all that and more. A very, very experienced man, who has seen a lot of corporate nonsense both inside and outside the aviation sector.

Sometimes people get slagged for holding an opinion with which others do not agree. In my view, it's far better to hold a contrarian opinion, than to lack the intellect to make one capable of forming any kind of opinion at all.
He may be experienced and have a lot of valuable things to write about aviation but his reading of the automotive sector is way off in my view.

Sunfish wrote:
The destruction of the Australian automotive industry is just a taste of what Tony Abbott has in store for you.
This is just hyperbole and fails to recognise for example that Ford was up the creek years ago, Holden failed with the Cruze and Toyota plainly admitted to the Productivity Commission that it could produce the Camry in two other countries - this so called 'destruction' has very little to do with the current Government or the previous one for that matter. The Bracks Review from a few years ago and the submissions of the major players tell us as much.
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Old 13th Feb 2014, 15:19
  #2224 (permalink)  
Join Date: Apr 2009
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A recap of what went public yesterday for those who missed it

It's all a bit scary as this is the first time I have agreed with someone from the Greens about anything.. talk about going mainstream (so to speak) Hmm someone said it before recently on here, I must be dead......

Last edited by TIMA9X; 13th Feb 2014 at 15:44.
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Old 13th Feb 2014, 19:55
  #2225 (permalink)  
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ACT Crusader:

He may be experienced and have a lot of valuable things to write about aviation but his reading of the automotive sector is way off in my view.
You are absolutely entitled to our opinion and I haven't explained the thinking behind mine in enough detail to perhaps convince you of where Tony Abbott is taking us, not that Labor would be that much different...yet.

As for the car companies, it is common knowledge that there has been global over capacity in the car industry for at least Twenty years. The reason being that developing countries use the automotive sector to drive the development of their economies through stimulating the development of their secondary industries, the latest I believe is Saudi Arabia.

Auto industry ?can create 77,000 jobs? | Arab News ? Saudi Arabia News, Middle East News, Opinion, Economy and more.

The basic reason for this is that the difference between third world and developed countries is their ability to sustain a capacity for manufacturing elaborately transformed manufactures (ETM) - generally thought of as the ability to sustain a precision metal product manufacturing industry, starting with the necessary tooling. This is about doing stuff with machines like these - which incidentally make many of the components of your aircraft - and training and employing smart guys to use them.

Machining Centers & Machine Engineering Services | Makino

..And of course such a capacity is also necessary for defence, as Australia found out the hard way in 1939.

Now the American car companies in particular are experts at shaking down states who want this capability, they practiced on their own 50 states for at least Fifty years - running bidding wars for plant locations. They negotiate tax holidays, co investments, free greenfield sites, etc.with considerable success because they know just as governments do, what the economic multiplier effect of car industry jobs is worth ( generally thought as Eight to One).

So fast forward to Australia in 2014. We now have Two political parties whose elected members think politics is a "career", who have no work expereince outside politics and who therefore intend to provide for themselves and their families through politics. These folk, in both parties, are for sale to the highest bidder. There is nothing they will not do to advance their personal interests, including selling the Australian people into servitude if it suits them.

Add to that the competing agendas of big business. The miners are in the ascendency at the moment and they have always wanted Two things: A low Australian dollar, like the Agriculture sector, because they are commodity price takers in US dollars, and an end to secondary industry protection in any form because it raises their cost base.

To put that another way, the miners and farmers see any government assistance / support for a manufacturing sector as a tax on them, and in a sense they are right.

However this is still special pleading. The miners get the diesel fuel rebate and God knows what in infrastructure investment. The farmers get income equalisation and drought relief and of course SPC just got 22 million from the Victorian government to modernise its food packaging systems !!!!! Nobody is pure!

So we have the miners and farmers in the ascendent. Now add a healthy dose of grind the faces of the poor capitalism and a healthy dose of hatred for unions which is often well earned. Then add a sprinkling of acadmic fanaticism about free markets and creative destruction - "new industries will arrive and thrive to take advantage of the resources freed up by the destruction of the car industry, yadda yadda," Then add the accountants and bankers screaming about "labor costs are too high" and guess what is going to happen?

These are the folk who say "Australia can't build anything, Australia shouldn't build anything because we aren't competitive". These folk always turn out to be allied with the farmers and miners. "We are a farm and a quarry" they say. These are the same folk who strangled what aviation manufacturing industry we had and now they will strange the rest of secondary industry f they have their way. They are in the pay of miners and Agribusiness.

That is right. There is going to be no support for any manufacturing or service industry sector that cannot prove to the Govenrment that it is actively trying to impoverish its staff and destroy union influence.

Furthermore anything that is in public ownership that Macquarrie Bank likes the look of is going to be sold, starting with Medibank private and Australia Post. Tell me again how the sale of major airports worked out?

So this is what you are going to see:

1) Major increase in private rent seeking - health insurance costs, postage, energy and food will rise with the removal of Government checks and balances.

2) Major rise in long term unemployment - this has already started, the economists were surprised at yesterdays figures, I was not.

Cookies must be enabled. | The Australian

3) Major decrease in value for money and quality of goods and services both private and Government.

4) Major decrease in income support for the unemployed.

5) The contempt of both political parties for the unemployed, after all they have no money to buy politiciians.

6) No government investment in retraining or education.

7) A decrease rather than an increase of tax on the well off.

8) More imported American Conservative bullshit about "personal responsibility" (code for not helping the poor) and "choices" (code for blaming people for being poor).

The net result of that is going to be the creation of a rather nasty underclass of disenfranchised and rebellious unemployed folk. Some of them will make the connection between mining investors and their own plight, but the Pilbara is too far away for them to go and sabotage the mines as poor folk in Africa seem to do when they feel they aren't getting their fair share of the wealth.

...And of course this is a zero sum game. You will pay what you were paying in indsutry supportf for increased security and insurance costs as well as all the increased charges for food, fuel, etc, that the rent seekers will suck out of you.

The growth industries are going to be prisons and law enforcement.

But high labour costs, you ask? Don't make me laugh, we have been stripping labour costs out of industry for Thirty years - led by the car industry. The reason we aren't exporting cars is not labour costs, its straight out corporate policy as dictated by Detroit and Tokyo. It has everything to do with transfer pricing and tax minimisation.

Remember these? The decisions about where to build and export are political. Direct labor costs are just an excuse.

and this?

Last edited by Sunfish; 13th Feb 2014 at 20:07.
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Old 13th Feb 2014, 20:11
  #2226 (permalink)  
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The QF pilot redundancy threat is yet to play out.

Its an EBA year & the 787 options will either be confirmed as orders or cancelled around mid year.

If QF get AIPA to agree to a B scale for new recruits, mainline may get the 787's.

Joyce has already flagged a 18 to 30% cost disadvantage. So my guess is a B scale at around about these discounted rates.

All during the threat of uncertain times & 'imminent' redundancies.

Mstr Caution is offline  
Old 13th Feb 2014, 20:13
  #2227 (permalink)  
Join Date: Aug 2007
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I think you guys are in for a rough ride.

I have been reading this Forum and various news sites re. the Qantas saga for a while now and I really think the bombshell has not yet dropped.
There is no doubt in my mind that the Irish butcher has his "shillelagh " behind his back just waiting for the right time to beat you severely.
It is so painfully obvious that if the Federal Guvmint come to QF's aissistance in some way there will be lots of strings attached and the Irish Puppet will dance a merry tune. It seems as though he has been working towards this for quite some time now , slowly but surely.
I fear your terms and conditions you currently enjoy will be restructured and will be way below where they are now and all he needs to implement them is for the Guvmint to require workplace changes as a condition of assistance and he is away and swinging his shillelagh. If he gets the Guvmint to demand these changes then he can say that it is out of his hands and he is only doing what is required by them for Qantas to survive and his conscience ( if he has one ) is clear.There is no way assistance will be forthcoming without quite a lot of blood letting. The Irishman must be happily polishing his shillelagh , apart from other things !!!!
I would like to think I am wrong but as an outsider it certainly looks that way to me.
Whether you like him or not he is a very cunning , sly person.
Good luck and watch your back for the " club ' for as sure as night follows day he will be out swinging it real soon.
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Old 13th Feb 2014, 20:46
  #2228 (permalink)  
Join Date: Oct 2013
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If you look at the wealth distribution in the good ol USA then its an indication of where our Liberal party wants to take us. Worshipping market forces and pure economics and stuff humanity is the new doctrine.
So the Liberal party, one term government no doubt, is going to guarantee debt to shaft those terrible unions at QANTAS, allowing JOYCE to transfer as much as he can from Qantas to Jetstar, and the trick continues. What if another APA bid surfaces? Will the government give a debt guarantee for some Pitt street sharks?
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Old 13th Feb 2014, 21:27
  #2229 (permalink)  
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If QF get AIPA to agree to a B scale for new recruits, mainline may get the 787's.
They already have the B Scale ........ think Jet*, Cobham and Network.
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Old 13th Feb 2014, 22:36
  #2230 (permalink)  
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: australia
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You think Off Chocks??

Just offer the ,soon to be disenfranchised 767 pilots, the 787 with no overtime component ,and voila you have a fully trained ,highly experienced group of heavy jet , 'B "scale Boeing pilots, appx 30% cheaper than the Jetstar 330 "blue shirt "brigade.

Don't like it ,but anything is possible with the gnome in charge.
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Old 13th Feb 2014, 22:36
  #2231 (permalink)  
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Alan should be happy this morning, ABC News reporting that the PM while ruling out financial assistance to Qantas says he is looking at removing any limit on foreign ownership of Qantas.
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Old 13th Feb 2014, 22:42
  #2232 (permalink)  
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Which then of course raises the issue of who would want to buy in? And If they really wanted to do so, they could have already, as it isn't as if the foreign ownership is already at it's limit. The removal of the limits unfortunately won't change anything as far as the Irishman's plans are concerned. His removal and replacement with someone competent is the only thing that with reduce the pain he is planning.
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Old 13th Feb 2014, 22:55
  #2233 (permalink)  
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Mstr Caution:
They were offered a B scale several times and in fact could have had one but chose instead to go to FWA who cannot rule on B scales. Go Figure! By the way 75 pilots due back to mainline this year from LWOP and most are in Jetstar.....now what? Boston Consulting-Gone! Bain? PWC? What now guys? Just sit tight everyone and watch with interest.
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Old 13th Feb 2014, 23:05
  #2234 (permalink)  
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I notice in the photograph of allan that he doesnt have a broken nose. why is this?
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Old 13th Feb 2014, 23:14
  #2235 (permalink)  
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......'Who would want to buy in? And If they really wanted to do so, they could have already'......
Perhaps foreign investors haven't bought in Monkey, simply because they aren't attracted to the $11 Billion in debit attached to the consolidated entity.

Expect there probably are buyers out there for parts of the Qantas Group not saddled with the debit.

Strings attached to any Government debit guarantee will be closely examined by Buyers & Sellers alike.

Allan isn't out of the woods yet.
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Old 13th Feb 2014, 23:46
  #2236 (permalink)  
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I probly didn't phrase it clearly, that was my intent.
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Old 13th Feb 2014, 23:56
  #2237 (permalink)  
Join Date: May 2001
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The Amazzzing Tony, Joe and Alan Show.

It will be interesting to see if Tony and Joe sign the Oz taxpayer up to be QF's guarantor without due diligence.

Could they be that dumb or duplicitous ?

I can't help but note that this is what Steve is calling for (Nick too ) but not Nathan, disappointing to say the least.
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Old 14th Feb 2014, 00:07
  #2238 (permalink)  
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: AUS
Posts: 236

There is far more going on in this saga than 99% of the posters on this thread know about.
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Old 14th Feb 2014, 00:36
  #2239 (permalink)  
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Tuner 2

My post 2306 says much the same but in a few more words.
This plot was conceived quite some time ago and is about to be hatched!!
Severe turbulence approaches so fasten your seat belts very tightly !!!!!
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Old 14th Feb 2014, 00:46
  #2240 (permalink)  
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The bleating for money astounds me, not only for all that has been mentioned on here already or the boards' salaries & bonuses but this too:

The Qantas Frequent Flyer program, for example, took a record $1.2 billion in billings across the 2013 financial year to contribute $260 million (before interest and tax) to the Flying Kangaroo's pouch.
The scheme is estimated to be worth as much as $3 billion dollars more than Qantas itself which has led to speculation that Qantas could sell off a 49% minority stake in the program to raise between $1.3 billion and $1.56 billion for the airline, according to J.P. Morgan.

Read: Could Qantas sell off its frequent flyer program?

However, another analyst has suggested that Qantas hang onto this lucrative 'crown jewel' and instead sell off as many as 42 billion points yes, that's billion to its network of retail partners and potentially raise a handy $500 million in much-needed cash.

(Australian Business Traveller - Unbiased business travel news, reviews and advice. Your essential resource for flights, airports, hotels and frequent flyer rewards)
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