Virgin Aircraft 'Emergency' Landing

[Jack Ranga]

Porch, I can't believe that the emphasis of this thread is not on what you said in the last paragraph of your last post. Both of those factors are a disgrace in my opinion.

[Capn Bloggs]

Originally Posted by Porch Monkey

What I would've done, what you would've done or anybody else would've done is irrelevant now. We didn't. They did. I don't have their mindset, or their info. Neither do you. Would I have carried more fuel? I don't know. Would I have carried the same? I don't know. I wasn't there.

Oh come on. Given the info they had, what would you have carried ex BNE/SYD?

Originally Posted by Old Akro

I think an earlier post said that the pavement strength of BHI is inadequate for a B737. MIA is PCN 32, BHI is PCN 15. I don't fully understand the B737 requirements, but prima facie it looks to me that the previous poster was correct and YBHI was not a viable alternative.

They didn't need an alternate at departure; I was only suggesting that if they had carried Jabba's "might be fog" fuel, they would have had BHI as an emergency option. If I get a report of fog at a port with another wide open but low PCN, I'll take the low PCN any time. A quick check of the FMS database for approaches would also be in order.

I think there is also a potential argument that busting minima at MIA is safer than at AD

I very much doubt that a GPS NPA to 0/0 onto a shortish runway is safer than an autoland onto a Cat 1 ILS. Legal or not, I know what I'd rather do. Those Virgin guys deserve a bravery award.

A previous poster suggested that the BOM gets ground observations from a BOM person at the airport. One of my concerns / questions about the BOM is whether it has become primarily a 9-5 Mon - Fri organisation. Most of the decisions for this flight occurred before 9am. Was the BOM guy actually at work and providing observations?

We had the ridiculous situation here a few years back where the Met Office at an outport didn't open until the first flight was ready to depart. I recall making many phone calls just prior to pushback asking about the actual weather there. Pretty silly really; the only time we needed accurate weather/forecasting, early morning, nobody's in the office for obs.

[donpizmeov]

RJT and oracle,

Sydney has GLS approaches published to most of its runways. It has a ground station that corrects any GPS error to allow a ILS like approach all the way to autoland. Looks like the future to me.

The Don

[Shagpile]

TAF YPAD 171703Z 1718/1824
VRB05KT 9999 FEW030 SCT045
FM181000 VRB05KT CAVOK
RMK
T 06 06 11 14 Q 1018 1018 1020 1020

METAR YPAD 171900Z 07004KT 9999 FEW022 05/04 Q1018
RMK RF00.0/000.0
TTF: NOSIG

Wet bulb/dry bulb stick out like dogs balls. Even when they were 05/05, the TTF guy was still calling it NOSIG.

Add a nice light 4kts wind for mixing -> Perfect fog weather.

[Flying Binghi]

The BOM, via computer models, can tell yer what they reckon the climate will be in 30 years time though they couldn't tell yer squat about the wx 30 minutes out..







.

[Lookleft]

METAR YPAD 171900Z 07004KT 9999 FEW022 05/04 Q1018
RMK RF00.0/000.0
TTF: NOSIG

Given that the wind is quoted as an easterly I can well understand why the crews were not considering fog especially in light of the TAF. If the wind had been a south-westerly then it might have started raising a few red flags. I have only ever seen fog at ADL twice in my 20 years flying into the place and that was due to sea fog. All this post event dissection of the wx ignores the fact that ADL is not a destination that is regularly affected by radiation fog. The proof of this is that two crews from two different airlines were caught out by unforecast fog. The unforecast fog in ADL was unfortunate but the compounding of that error by the BoM with unforecast fog in MIA, which is subject to regular radiation fog, is bewildering.

If events like this are supposed to provide lessons to the wider community well I have now changed my fuel order for early morning arrivals into ADL!

[Lone pine]

Shagpile

Looking at that TAF and METAR I see nothing remarkable.
The prelim report mentions for example that the QF and VA were both estimating ADL past 2300z.

If the METAR is reporting 9999 with a 1 degree split in temp/dew point pre flight and you still dont have fog forming and the TAF is indicating a temp of around 11 to 14 degrees at ETA why would you think that fog was going to be a problem on arrival?

I guess what I am suggesting is that the reading of that TAF could be interpreted in different ways by different pilots.

Nothing wrong or right about that..

It just is the way it is.

LOOKLEFT

The crews were caught out by dud gen.
The so called wx experts the BOM were the ones caught out by fog.

[BPA]

The use of YBHI would only work for one aircraft in an emergency. If two B737 aircaft diverted to YBHI there is a very good chance the first aircaft could damage the runway and close the airport. If you want to include YBHI you might as well throw YPAG and YMTG into the picture. But none can be planned as an alternate.

People are throwing up 'what/could/should' have been done, while sitting at home looking at back on information that has been gathered over the 4 weeks since the event. Have a look at the tracks shown on the map included in the ATSB report, both aircraft flew past Mildura, so the crews would have an idea of what the weather was like, then 15-20 mins later they are provided with YMIA weather saying it's ok, the 2300 METAR has the cloud higher at 3900'. When both crews made the call to divert they had minutes to decide based on the information they were given and on what they saw when the flew past YMiA.

If both crews had any indication of the cloud lowering or fog forming at YMIA, they would have continued to YPAD and busted minimal via an Autoland following an ILS approach and this thread wouldn't be here!

As I said yesterday, let's focus on the prevention on another similar event.

What I see needs to be done is;
1. Rather than spend their money on building car parks and shopping centers, Airports should forced to upgrade all ILS's to at least CAT2 ASAP and work torwards CAT 3.
2. CASA to regulate Flight Dispatcher training like they do with load controllers. In the USA flight dispatchers are includedd in the FAR's and are licensed and trained to FAA standards.
3. Complete review of the BOM and the impact on years of funding cutbacks have had. The quality of the forecasts has declined and it's not just the lack of fog forecasting, during the summer months lack of thunderstorms is also and issue.

[LeadSled]

Folks,
WAAS has been mentioned, that would have been of marginal help at MIA, as the minima for a WAAS PVA ( or, at least, the published ones I have seen, have all had a 300' DH, viz. around 1200m. I believe it is possible, but I have never seen, a published WAAS PVA to 200'.

Yes, there have been research testing autolands with a LAAS, but I am not aware of any such approaches in service or any airlines contemplating WAAS/LAAS auto coupled approach /autoland operations any time soon.

Hell will freeze over before airlines would pay for a LAAS system at places like Mildura. Forget WAAS for Australia, a pity, but a realistic expectation. With new generation 3 GPS, now coming into service, slow moving users will have WAAS equivalent accuracy, without WAAS, leaving aviation as about the only beneficiary, over which to spread the cost.

Tootle pip!!

[porch monkey]

Bloggs , since you insist, I most likely would have had approx. 3t arrival at AD. The forecasts indicated no need for more. As Lookleft has pointed out, an easterly wind would not have raised much interest. The temp split of 1 or 2 degrees you see regularly. There is much more to fog formation than just a low temp split. So, arrival at MIA would have had approx. 2t, straight in via the RNAV, and no, I wouldn't have waited for QF. Had the information about the missed approaches at MIA been received in time, (it wasn't), then continue on to ADL for an autoland. Happy now? There was no indication at departure that anything other was likely to be needed.

Jack, yes, And will be interesting to see if anything changes. There have been some company changes already.

BPA, Amen.

[Lone pine]

Porch Monkey,

That's sounds fair. I believe that QF did just that in that they tracked straight to the IAF and shot an approach.

If you had done as you describe and not attempted a DME arrival with a visual approach first off and you were 10 mins ahead of QF then you would not have had to wait.

I'd imagine that you would have been on the ground by the time the others started their approach right?

It just wasn't meant to be on that day!

[rjtjrt]

LeadSled

WAAS equivalent in Australia would have made the emergency proceedure adopted by the crews of descending well below published minima much safer.
Thus WAAS in Australia should be om the agenda, given the reduced cost needed now that Japan has done the hard work for our area.
The future promise of improved accuracy GPS without WAAS/SBAS is obviously not convincing, or else why would so many countries be bulding WAAS/SBAS type systems?

See

GNSS augmentation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

File:SBAS Service Areas.png - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[skurgler]

Bottom line, Met totally stuffed it, not once but twice, and even when the fog was there, they were predicting it to clear within 30 minutes.

It is just a bit of blind luck, combined with the skill of both crews that they will be subject to a severe thrashing with a wet lettuce leaf from ATSB and not the full force of a coroners court

[framer]

So honest question, what is wrong with departing BNE on a day when the dew point is only two off the temp and calm, with loading I dunno 3200kg for MEL and another 1-2T for whatever extra holding you might need due forecast for MEL so that they arrived with 2T+ in Melbourne?

Good question. Would 2T be enough to plan on arriving in MEL ? Lets say they did just that. Then they didn't get their optimum altitude for the divert, now we're down to 1.8 T. Then there was an extra 30kts of headwind ( happens all the time) now we're down to 1.7T. Then they got one lap of the hold for sequencing as there is fog in CBR and ADL and MIA so a few others have the same idea, now we're down to 1.5T and nothing out of the ordinary has happened. Then ATC lines up an A330 who takes a bit longer than expected and the ensuing go around nails another .8T leaving them with 0.7T on a crappy day in MEL. So planning on 2T overhead MEL with that weather is questionable, so how much should they plan on having overhead MEL? 3T?
If three tonne is acceptable to you Jabba, does that work with the MLW and the pax loads? I'm running out of battery so haven't got time to check from the report if it does or doesn't. That's an honest question too, I'm not being facetious, just running with your line of thinking to see where it ends up.
It was a CAVOK forecast so if the result is offloading pax or freight then it would be very hard to justify.
Ps I'm not a min fuel guy

[donpizmeov]

Leadsled,

GLS autoland is part of the 380 type course here. We practice using the SYD approaches.

the Don

[Oracle1]

Prevention is better than cure

Everyone is devoting a lot of energy as to the why's of this incident but the fact is that in all probability something similar will occur again. The purpose of this thread should not be to determine if the crew is at fault. There two positions,

1. the crew got themselves into it and got themselves out of it or

2. The system let them down.

I am just a dumb mechanic but I am certain that the establishment will become more incompetent not less. If there is any chance that CASA/ATSB can blame a pilot to protect the system they will do so. Pilots will be exposed further. I am well aware that there are operators using synthetic vision to land at night out west (I do not condone this at all, check out the classic ad for FLIR with the deer in the middle of the runway with the synthetic vision showing a clear space).

If I can buy a Dynon with Foxtel showing me the scenery for 5 grand why cant we have an accurate GPS system to determine an aircraft's position in larger aircraft, after all the money flow for development is in larger aircraft. Drones land blind every time.

Wont be long before a pilot takes his guidance with him from aircraft to aircraft in GA, eg Ipad and AHDRS/GPS bluetooth unit. My little unapproved dynon EFIS ****s all over the vacumn gauges in my 172 for reliability. The system needs to be aircraft specific not airstrip specific.

[Capn Bloggs]

Originally Posted by Framer

Good question. Would 2T be enough to plan on arriving in MEL ? Lets say they did just that. Then they didn't get their optimum altitude for the divert, now we're down to 1.8 T. Then there was an extra 30kts of headwind ( happens all the time) now we're down to 1.7T. Then they got one lap of the hold for sequencing as there is fog in CBR and ADL and MIA so a few others have the same idea, now we're down to 1.5T and nothing out of the ordinary has happened. Then ATC lines up an A330 who takes a bit longer than expected and the ensuing go around nails another .8T leaving them with 0.7T on a crappy day in MEL. So planning on 2T overhead MEL with that weather is questionable, so how much should they plan on having overhead MEL? 3T?

Don't get carried away! If they don't get in to ADL because of fog and they don't have "proper" alternate fuel for MEL (it wasn't ever required), they declare "Minimum Fuel" and 90% of that stuff you mentioned gets chucked out the window. With the benefit of hindsight I'd plan to get to MEL with 1500kg for a Cat III and "I don't care what the weather is".

Not having the AWIS at MIA denied the crews from knowing the humidity.

Originally Posted by BPA

What I see needs to be done is;
1. Rather than spend their money on building car parks and shopping centers, Airports should forced to upgrade all ILS's to at least CAT2 ASAP and work torwards CAT 3.
2. CASA to regulate Flight Dispatcher training like they do with load controllers. In the USA flight dispatchers are includedd in the FAR's and are licensed and trained to FAA standards.
3. Complete review of the BOM and the impact on years of funding cutbacks have had. The quality of the forecasts has declined and it's not just the lack of fog forecasting, during the summer months lack of thunderstorms is also and issue.

4. CASA to revise RPT jet fuel policies to require an ILS alternate if possible until such times as BOM gets it's act together;

5. Conduct an education campaign for pilots about fog. 5kts NE at ADL in winter is merely mixing wind, nothing else (as proved on the day).

Re 2: Not sure how a flight despatcher would have made a difference in this case. He/she probably would have shot for the same fuel. If you meant ground-based company operational control in flight, then OK.

As for Jabba, I am invited to ask pretty demanding questions of a surgeon before the chop, why shouldn't pilots be open to the same thing (within reason, of course)?

[Icarus2001]

I think there is also a potential argument that busting minima at MIA is safer than at AD

Let's hear it. I would take an unapproved autoland on a long runway at ADL anyday than a made up procedure at MIA.

There is much more to fog formation than just a low temp split.

Not really MUCH more. If a key ingredient is in there then that may get ones attention.

4. CASA to revise RPT jet fuel policies to require an ILS alternate if possible until such times as BOM gets it's act together;

How will we know when that is. "the establishment" as mentioned above already says they have their act together. Heaven help us if we need CASA to say when BOM are competent.

[Derfred]

For those asking about the HUD:

1. All QF B738's have one.

2. The HUD will show you exactly where to expect to see the runway and the aim point when you break visual.

3. The HUD won't give you flare guidance unless there is an ILS, however...

4. The HUD in the hands of an experienced user can be used to flare and land the aircraft very accurately without an ILS in zero visibility (although not certified for this purpose).

[john_tullamarine]

.. and a HUD with an EVS overlay makes life ever so much more relaxed I would expect (not having had the opportunity to fly one)