Merged: Is the worst of the Global Financial Crisis behind us?
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Sydney
Age: 58
Posts: 269
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Quote- "if you have children they'll be paying off the Kruddcard debt until they are middle aged."
____________
At least they'll be able to pay it off as they won't be working for little more than the proverbial bowl of rice, eh john ?
____________
At least they'll be able to pay it off as they won't be working for little more than the proverbial bowl of rice, eh john ?
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Sydney
Posts: 123
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
yes ditch your descendants may work for more than a bowl of rice with some sashimi added but, if all you make is heavily taxed you'd find you have nothing left to do much anything else.
and ain't that the truth.
and ain't that the truth.
Icarus2001
Ah that little gem was dispelled last year when a large number of economists thought China and India would come out unscathed by an economic downturn in the USA. The reality with China as it is my neck of the woods is that of the 1.3 billion population, 1.1 billion live in poverty. Only 200 million have any kind of wealth and of those 200 million, 30 million have lost their jobs in the coastal regions alone since August last year. China and India’s economies are export driven economies. Their success over the last 20 years has been driven by it. It will be at least two generations before these countries own internal demand will be large enough to drive their economies forward. Japan won't be of any help either as they are in just as big mess as the USA
So then I hear some ask why did Australia report today a positive GDP of 0.4% and avoid a technical recession? The simple answer is the $900 cash hand out and exports rising. Why would exports rise in a downturn? Well the simple answer is that China has been stoke piling our resources because they are cheap. Next quarter will be interesting because there isn’t anymore cash handouts and China will probably reduce their imports of Australia’s commodities significantly as their stockpiles fill up.
ditch handle
What makes you so confidant that your children’s income will go any further in 10-20 years compared now. Real wages in this country have been declining at an alarming rate since the early seventies irrespective of who was in power. Just because we have a different government now in power compared to what we had a year and a half ago mean that real wage levels will increase. They will decrease and probably at a much faster rate than before because of the amount of money governments are currently printing and record low interest rates. This will in about 2-3 years drive inflation through the roof and hence drive up interest rates, probably to levels close to what we saw in the late Eighties.
Yes the US and parts of Europe are stuffed BUT we are riding the resource boom and unless China and Japan stop buying we will survive. Some suggest that the US and Europe are not buying Chinese product and so they will tank as well, not really, their domestic demand is huge.
So then I hear some ask why did Australia report today a positive GDP of 0.4% and avoid a technical recession? The simple answer is the $900 cash hand out and exports rising. Why would exports rise in a downturn? Well the simple answer is that China has been stoke piling our resources because they are cheap. Next quarter will be interesting because there isn’t anymore cash handouts and China will probably reduce their imports of Australia’s commodities significantly as their stockpiles fill up.
ditch handle
At least they'll be able to pay it off as they won't be working for little more than the proverbial bowl of rice, eh john ?
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: utopia
Posts: 108
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Icarus 2001.
I agree with you 100%
People who have a stable job are better off for the time being and they are still spending as nothing has happened.
But here in QLD ,electricity,car rego,s ,fuel,rates etc etc are all going up to pay off massive debts,which i suppose the average person can handle but its still going to take a fare bit more out the weekly budget.
Record car sales for the last 3 years.Unless you buy a car every 3 years of course demand will drop.
Mining--some have closed down because the price has dropped.Others are no worse off than they were 5 years ago-----the boom hype is over.
Iron ore was around $30 a tonne 5 years ago.In the boom years that went to nearly $200 and now i see Rio has signed with all but China for $90 a tonne.
The world had to come back to reality sooner or later.
The first home owners grant is a savour for the real estate and building sector but once finished we will see a dive.Then once rates start going up there will be a lot more people in the sh-t.
My super has snuck back to be only minus 20% now but in a 3 year period it went up over 30% so i cant complain and interest on cash has dropped 100%.
So retirees ,unemployed(and rising),low paid struggling workers etc cant afford to spend or go on holidays,hence all businesses say get a 20% drop,then they have to lay more workers off ,so no one is safe for a long time ahead.
Australia is a year or two behind the rest of the world so we havent really seen it yet.
Share markets are rising------are they getting back to a reality price after a panic sell of-----who knows,im making a bit of beer money,but im waiting for a big crash again.
I agree with you 100%
People who have a stable job are better off for the time being and they are still spending as nothing has happened.
But here in QLD ,electricity,car rego,s ,fuel,rates etc etc are all going up to pay off massive debts,which i suppose the average person can handle but its still going to take a fare bit more out the weekly budget.
Record car sales for the last 3 years.Unless you buy a car every 3 years of course demand will drop.
Mining--some have closed down because the price has dropped.Others are no worse off than they were 5 years ago-----the boom hype is over.
Iron ore was around $30 a tonne 5 years ago.In the boom years that went to nearly $200 and now i see Rio has signed with all but China for $90 a tonne.
The world had to come back to reality sooner or later.
The first home owners grant is a savour for the real estate and building sector but once finished we will see a dive.Then once rates start going up there will be a lot more people in the sh-t.
My super has snuck back to be only minus 20% now but in a 3 year period it went up over 30% so i cant complain and interest on cash has dropped 100%.
So retirees ,unemployed(and rising),low paid struggling workers etc cant afford to spend or go on holidays,hence all businesses say get a 20% drop,then they have to lay more workers off ,so no one is safe for a long time ahead.
Australia is a year or two behind the rest of the world so we havent really seen it yet.
Share markets are rising------are they getting back to a reality price after a panic sell of-----who knows,im making a bit of beer money,but im waiting for a big crash again.
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: asia
Posts: 947
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
People a lot smarter than me ( yes, there are some ) have said that unemployment lags 6-9 months behind everything else, so IF there were signs of recovery, unemployment is not an immediate sign either way. It makes sense as businesses are not just going to start making money all of a sudden, at the first sign of recovery. ( Like those poor impoverished people we work for 404 
)
I am always wary of experts, like the ones that said the Oz dollar would reach parity and beyond, I know it was close but it did'nt, they also said the initial dip in the dollar was just a " correction " , yeh it corrected alright.
Also a lot of these experts ( eg Buffet ) can gain significantly from depressed markets, think Rene Rivkin on a much larger scale.
My 2 cents worth and unlike 404, I was always a pilot
)I am always wary of experts, like the ones that said the Oz dollar would reach parity and beyond, I know it was close but it did'nt, they also said the initial dip in the dollar was just a " correction " , yeh it corrected alright.
Also a lot of these experts ( eg Buffet ) can gain significantly from depressed markets, think Rene Rivkin on a much larger scale.
My 2 cents worth and unlike 404, I was always a pilot
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: in the classroom of life
Age: 55
Posts: 6,864
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like
on
1 Post
Two very appropriate comments I have seen....
And .........
Another comment made by an infamous ppruner over a coldie is that we are in the middle of a Tsunami, all wandering around the beach looking at the unseen and exposed sea floor...................and then 
.
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best!
You've only got to look what happen during the Great Depression to see that history is repeating itself.
im making a bit of beer money,but im waiting for a big crash again.
.Prepare for the worst, hope for the best!
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Adelaide, South Australia
Posts: 394
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Icarus2001 wrote:
Except that Rudd and Swan have blown the surplus AND will borrow some 220B. That debt is spread across Australian present and future taxpayers and interest is payable.
So, Icarus2001, I have some questions for you (answers below)
(1) Where is the interest on the borrowings coming from?
(2) Where will the principal of 220BN be repaid from?
(3) If the retirees you feel sorry for end up tapping into the pension because their super funds are worthless, where will the pension payments come from?
(4) When (not if) unemployment skyrockets, where is the benefit coming from?
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
(1) TAXATION, (2) TAXATION (3) TAXATION (4) TAXATION
So while you may be a true believer for now, reality will set in one day (soon).
So overall, from a purely personal, selfish point of view, I am better off now than at the height of the boom when interest rates, petrol; and inflation were eating into my income.
Now I realise that many people are losing their jobs and those that are close to retirement will be hurting with their superannuation fund losing capital, for this I am sorry and you have my sympathy.
Now I realise that many people are losing their jobs and those that are close to retirement will be hurting with their superannuation fund losing capital, for this I am sorry and you have my sympathy.
So, Icarus2001, I have some questions for you (answers below)
(1) Where is the interest on the borrowings coming from?
(2) Where will the principal of 220BN be repaid from?
(3) If the retirees you feel sorry for end up tapping into the pension because their super funds are worthless, where will the pension payments come from?
(4) When (not if) unemployment skyrockets, where is the benefit coming from?
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
(1) TAXATION, (2) TAXATION (3) TAXATION (4) TAXATION
So while you may be a true believer for now, reality will set in one day (soon).
Join Date: Jun 2001
Posts: 1,451
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Kev and Wayne are between a rock and a hard place - as the men running the country, (even if they didn't have a substantial personal/political investment in 'talking up' the economy at every opportunity), they can't, in their position, come up with a statement saying this is a false recovery for fear their comment would make it a self-fulfilling prophesy.
My financial advisor (the same one who lost me a bucket load of money in the last twelve months, but let's not dwell on that - despite all the signs, I was the one who elected not to go into 100% cash when I could have said to do so), told me back in January that she and her colleagues were expecting a recovery of sorts by mid year, but they were planning upon it proving to be unsustainable. I hope she's wrong, but fear she will be proven to be right in her predictions. I think we're in for at least another one to two years of very hard times.
For everybody's sake, including my own, I hope I'm wrong.
My financial advisor (the same one who lost me a bucket load of money in the last twelve months, but let's not dwell on that - despite all the signs, I was the one who elected not to go into 100% cash when I could have said to do so), told me back in January that she and her colleagues were expecting a recovery of sorts by mid year, but they were planning upon it proving to be unsustainable. I hope she's wrong, but fear she will be proven to be right in her predictions. I think we're in for at least another one to two years of very hard times.
For everybody's sake, including my own, I hope I'm wrong.
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Australia
Posts: 751
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I can't believe how many of you blindly trust that the state of the economy is as portrayed in the media!
Don't believe everything that you are told on Televison or in the paper!
Check this enlightening movie and then you might start to get a handle on just how much we are being manipulated without even realising it!
Zeitgeist - The Movie
Question everything!
Don't believe everything that you are told on Televison or in the paper!
Check this enlightening movie and then you might start to get a handle on just how much we are being manipulated without even realising it!
Zeitgeist - The Movie
Question everything!
Guest
Posts: n/a
There's a lot of wisdom going on here.
You must prepare for the worst.
10 ways to do so:- (The ticker guy in the USA, gives this advice)
http://market-ticker.org/archives/1091-Ten-Things-You-Must-Do.html
OR
Keep your head buried in the sand.
Another history lesson:-
When Germany invaded Russia, Stalin was in such deep shock, people couldn't even get him to answer the phone for 3 months. There will be a shock period. Use it to get people organised and functioning.
People are resourceful and have incredible survivability. Try and fight that, you will lose. Work with it, you too will survive.
May the Force be with you!
You must prepare for the worst.
10 ways to do so:- (The ticker guy in the USA, gives this advice)
http://market-ticker.org/archives/1091-Ten-Things-You-Must-Do.html
OR
Keep your head buried in the sand.
Another history lesson:-
When Germany invaded Russia, Stalin was in such deep shock, people couldn't even get him to answer the phone for 3 months. There will be a shock period. Use it to get people organised and functioning.
People are resourceful and have incredible survivability. Try and fight that, you will lose. Work with it, you too will survive.
May the Force be with you!
Thread Starter
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Australia
Posts: 2,382
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
DJIA during the Great Depression and until direct US involvement in WW2
• DJIA reached a high of 381.17 on the 3-9-29
• The DJIA declines to 333.27 by the 18-10-29 or looses 12.56%.
• Crash starts 21-10-29 and falls to 198.69 by the 13-11-29 or looses 47.87% from its high on the 3-9-29.
• Market starts to revive. From the 13-11-29 to the 17-4-30 the DJIA rises to 294.07 or 48.00% from its 13-11-29 low.
• From the 17-4-30 the market starts its long and by far more dramatic fall. By the 8-7-32 the DJIA has fallen to just 41.22 or looses 85.98% from its 17-4-30 high or 89.19% from its all time high on the 3-9-29.
• Between 11-7-32 to 5-3-37 the DJIA rises from 41.22 to 194.14 or 370.98%.
• Second market crash starts on 8-3-37 and lasts until 31-3-38. In this time the market declines to 98.95 or looses 49.03% from its 5-3-37 high.
• From 31-3-38 to 7-12-41 the market is stagnant until Japan bombs Pearl Harbor.
• DJIA reached a high of 381.17 on the 3-9-29
• The DJIA declines to 333.27 by the 18-10-29 or looses 12.56%.
• Crash starts 21-10-29 and falls to 198.69 by the 13-11-29 or looses 47.87% from its high on the 3-9-29.
• Market starts to revive. From the 13-11-29 to the 17-4-30 the DJIA rises to 294.07 or 48.00% from its 13-11-29 low.
• From the 17-4-30 the market starts its long and by far more dramatic fall. By the 8-7-32 the DJIA has fallen to just 41.22 or looses 85.98% from its 17-4-30 high or 89.19% from its all time high on the 3-9-29.
• Between 11-7-32 to 5-3-37 the DJIA rises from 41.22 to 194.14 or 370.98%.
• Second market crash starts on 8-3-37 and lasts until 31-3-38. In this time the market declines to 98.95 or looses 49.03% from its 5-3-37 high.
• From 31-3-38 to 7-12-41 the market is stagnant until Japan bombs Pearl Harbor.
DJIA during the Great Recession 2007 - ????
• New high of 14164 on 9-10-07.
• Market starts to decline on 10-10-07.
• By the 12-9-08 the DJIA has declined to 11421.99 or lost 19.36%.
• The crash starts from the 15-9-08.
• Market finally bottoms on 9-3-09 at 6547.05 or 53.78% below high reached on 9-10-07.
• Market starts to revive on the 10-3-09. By the 9-6-09 the DJIA was at 8778.32 or had climbed 34.08% from its low on the 9-3-09.
• New high of 14164 on 9-10-07.
• Market starts to decline on 10-10-07.
• By the 12-9-08 the DJIA has declined to 11421.99 or lost 19.36%.
• The crash starts from the 15-9-08.
• Market finally bottoms on 9-3-09 at 6547.05 or 53.78% below high reached on 9-10-07.
• Market starts to revive on the 10-3-09. By the 9-6-09 the DJIA was at 8778.32 or had climbed 34.08% from its low on the 9-3-09.
So where are we now? On a strictly technical basis the current rally probably has no more than about two to three months to run. If history is to repeat itself and so far it has, we will probably see a long and protracted decline in the DJIA which could see it reach unthinkable levels by the end of 2011. Let’s just hope though that history doesn’t continue to repeat itself, for all our sakes.
Last edited by 404 Titan; 11th Jun 2009 at 01:37.
