Merged: Is the worst of the Global Financial Crisis behind us?
 

I'm noticing where I work that things seem to have been improving quite a bit recently. It makes me wonder if the worst of the GFC is now past us. The share market seems to be steadily rising and some economic figures are pointing at a recovery. What do you think and how is it looking where you work?

you'd wished.


unemployment is still on its way up.

Many small businesses are still going bankrupt. Banks are still unwilling to lend money for projects.

There's still a 30 billion dollar national debt to be paid off.

Also, this GM bankruptcy thingo, no one knows if GM will actually come out very successful, everyone is just optimistic and hopeful, the truth is, there is no guarantee that GM will emerge better than what it was. It all depends on whether consumers will suddenly ditch Japanese and European cars and suddenly all start buying American made cars. In simple terms: like hell they would.

GM will only break even assuming they can sell 10 million vehicle a year after from 2010. If they do not, they are no longer a viable business.

Citibank and Bank of America still have not passed stress test. American unemployment is still shockingly scary with many homeless middle class. Entire city of Reno and Las Vegas and many parts of California is literally a basket case with no hope.

Europe is far worse, they will not be out of recession till 2011-2012

All we are witnessing here is a “Bear Market Rally”. As I said in late 2007 on this forum and was boo’d down by my critics, the world was going to see a recession like they haven’t seen since the Great Depression. The US and Europe would lead us into it and will lead us out of it. What we are witnessing is the perfect storm brewing and there won’t be anywhere you can hide from it.

Both economies though have probably bottomed out or are very close to bottoming out. They are though no where near recovering as the problems that caused the downturn in the first place haven’t been fixed but the markets including the AUD have started behaving as if a recovery is in sight. It isn’t and won’t be for some tim

Spot on 404 titan

Though the AU$ is up due to interest rates being higher than elsewhere in the globe, and a, still, tanking US$, amongst others, and is not really reflecting any bears.

We have many years of this ahead. In the US alone, the housing market is still diving, unemployment is rising at it's highest rate since the 70's, and whole industries are folding. This is a market that is the size of Japan, Germany, China and the UK combined. And three of those economies are hugely weighted against the US market.

Australia has had a few lucky straws that have helped delay the inevitable.

You haven't seen anything yet.

halas

Armchair experts

The skyyyyyyyyyy is faaaaaaaalllling !!!


http://www.jeboavatars.com//images/a...ckenLittle.jpg

Dead right!

Without sounding too pessimistic, you would be better placed if one considered the worst.
We continue to forget that, "history repeats itself".
The Us Fed have got themselves into a situation, similar to the late 20's.
We are seeing and hearing of "green shoots", however it's the big picture that we've got to be wary of.

Proceed with caution and prepare for the unexpected.
Always have an alternate.
This at least keeps you in a positive frame of mind.

Skystar320

You wouldn’t be saying that if you knew my background. I haven’t always been a pilot you know.

psycho joe

Yeh what ever. You go and stick your head in the sand like all the other sheep.

Things are going to get worse, so if you've got some spare cash or looking to buy property you're in good shape because there's still s**tloads of debt out there that's going to drive lots of punters to the wall. I shifted 50% of my superannuation into cash 2 years ago after reading about the subprime drama that was unfolding.
I've been astounded at the easy credit and the way suckers speculated on property for the last few years.
Now it's payback time.

despite the good news,

"KEVIN Rudd today warned Australians the economy was not out of the woods yet.."

reads the headlines.

Well folks.

As usual the USA and Europe lead the rest of the world, Australia included.

This last month initial claims for unemployment have dropped from previous levels and the housing market is seeing signs of recovery, all be it small. The lady and myself recently put in an offer on a house and have been amazed at how quickly some places were selling. First time home buyers have been stimulating the market, spuured on by record low interest rates and govt grants.

From what people have been telling me, aviation is the first to feel the effects of a recession and the last to pull out of it. I work in the on-demand freight industry and from christmas onwards the amount of companies contracting for last minute express freight charters was basically nil. In the last few weeks we have seen a resurgance in interest which is surprising and hopefully a sign of better times ahead.

This weeks GM bankruptcy (auto parts from mexico is alot of our business) doesn't help but overall i see signs to be positive.

There are next to no aviation jobs going over here though....

DUX thats the sort of perspective I was after. The "whats happening where you work" perspective. Or people you know....

I feel you may be barking up the wrong end of the stick with your mixed metaphors. :ok:

DUXNUTZ

Yeh as I said I think the US economy is probably bottoming out i.e. the rate of deteriorating is slowing or stabilising. It isn’t recovering though. The recovery will be a long drawn out affair. The way the S&P 500, the Dow and oil have been rising since March though you would think the economy was in a full swing recovery. When investors realise it isn’t, the market will fall and it could very easily test new lows. You've only got to look what happen during the Great Depression to see that history is repeating itself.

Is this the same Harry S. Dent Jr. that wrote 'The Roaring 2000's'?

Er... Dent.

The only Dent I know is Arthur.
Barely escapes Earth's destruction as it is demolished to make way for a hyperspace bypass.

Enjoy that pint!

Yes that is the one and the same HS Dent.
b.

Well from where I am sitting, in a relatively secure flying job...the "non recession" that we are experiencing means...

:) My minimum mortgage repayments have dropped by hundreds of dollars a month meaning that by keeping my repayment the same I am getting further ahead on paying off my mortgage.

:) Petrol prices have dropped back to reasonable levels saving me quite a lot of money each week.

:) Inflation has slowed by about 2.5% meaning things are not getting more expensive as quickly, which saves me money.

:) My company workload has slowed down a little meaning I get more days on reserve without being called.

:) Restaurants, bars and retail outlets are offering discounts to attract business, thereby saving me money.

:bored: My superannuation fund has gone backwards but since I don't retire for another 30 years I think I can make it up.

So overall, from a purely personal, selfish point of view, I am better off now than at the height of the boom when interest rates, petrol; and inflation were eating into my income.

Now I realise that many people are losing their jobs and those that are close to retirement will be hurting with their superannuation fund losing capital, for this I am sorry and you have my sympathy.

The media are loving all this doom and gloom and plenty of people are buying into it. Yes the US and parts of Europe are stuffed BUT we are riding the resource boom and unless China and Japan stop buying we will survive. Some suggest that the US and Europe are not buying Chinese product and so they will tank as well, not really, their domestic demand is huge. The media headlines talk about 30-50% drops in value since last year in x y and z but last year was artificially high so the drop looks much much worse than it actually is.

Ultimately all these expert economic analysts who are predicting the end of the world actually KNOW sweet FA. How many saw this coming?

Is the worst of the Global Financial Crisis behind us?
 

NO.

If you feel things are getting better, you might have been believing the spin that Rudd and Swan have been spreading. Their naive and hasty ill-conceived economic policy will ensure that the economy will bounce along the bottom for some time to come, and if you have children they'll be paying off the Kruddcard debt until they are middle aged.
:ugh: