People a lot smarter than me ( yes, there are some ) have said that unemployment lags 6-9 months behind everything else, so IF there were signs of recovery, unemployment is not an immediate sign either way. It makes sense as businesses are not just going to start making money all of a sudden, at the first sign of recovery. ( Like those poor impoverished people we work for 404
)
I am always wary of experts, like the ones that said the Oz dollar would reach parity and beyond, I know it was close but it did'nt, they also said the initial dip in the dollar was just a " correction " , yeh it corrected alright.
Also a lot of these experts ( eg Buffet ) can gain significantly from depressed markets, think Rene Rivkin on a much larger scale.
My 2 cents worth and unlike 404, I was always a pilot
