PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Merged: Is the worst of the Global Financial Crisis behind us?
Old 3rd Jun 2009, 13:29
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404 Titan
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Asia
Age: 56
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Icarus2001
Yes the US and parts of Europe are stuffed BUT we are riding the resource boom and unless China and Japan stop buying we will survive. Some suggest that the US and Europe are not buying Chinese product and so they will tank as well, not really, their domestic demand is huge.
Ah that little gem was dispelled last year when a large number of economists thought China and India would come out unscathed by an economic downturn in the USA. The reality with China as it is my neck of the woods is that of the 1.3 billion population, 1.1 billion live in poverty. Only 200 million have any kind of wealth and of those 200 million, 30 million have lost their jobs in the coastal regions alone since August last year. China and India’s economies are export driven economies. Their success over the last 20 years has been driven by it. It will be at least two generations before these countries own internal demand will be large enough to drive their economies forward. Japan won't be of any help either as they are in just as big mess as the USA

So then I hear some ask why did Australia report today a positive GDP of 0.4% and avoid a technical recession? The simple answer is the $900 cash hand out and exports rising. Why would exports rise in a downturn? Well the simple answer is that China has been stoke piling our resources because they are cheap. Next quarter will be interesting because there isn’t anymore cash handouts and China will probably reduce their imports of Australia’s commodities significantly as their stockpiles fill up.

ditch handle
At least they'll be able to pay it off as they won't be working for little more than the proverbial bowl of rice, eh john ?
What makes you so confidant that your children’s income will go any further in 10-20 years compared now. Real wages in this country have been declining at an alarming rate since the early seventies irrespective of who was in power. Just because we have a different government now in power compared to what we had a year and a half ago mean that real wage levels will increase. They will decrease and probably at a much faster rate than before because of the amount of money governments are currently printing and record low interest rates. This will in about 2-3 years drive inflation through the roof and hence drive up interest rates, probably to levels close to what we saw in the late Eighties.
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