Merged: Is the worst of the Global Financial Crisis behind us?
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Done and Dusted in 12 months.
There are two absolutes when it comes to human memory in aviation.
My prediction is that by the middle of 2010;
and
joe crazyhorse
- Every economic downturn is the worst ever experienced. At least as bad, if not worse than the great depression and spells the end for aviation.
- Every Airline expansion / recruitment cycle is the greatest ever experienced and will last forever.
My prediction is that by the middle of 2010;
- The sun will still rise in the East and set in the West.
- Europeans will still be considered arrogant.
- Americans will still consume and will have declared war on some other hapless country.
- The Chinese will still need raw materials and will manufacture cheap and nasty ****e that westerners will want to buy.
- Beer will still taste better cold.
- Australia will be the only developed country in the world with interest rates up at 13%.
and
- Someone on PPRUNE will post the question ("Will all this airline recruitment last forever")
joe crazyhorse
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I know this is not a financial, nor scientific analysis, but last weekend when I went to a largish shopping centre in the western suburbs of Melbourne, it seemed like every man and his dog was out shopping. So much so, I drove around for 5 minutes until I could get a car park!
Is this a sign that things are gradually getting back to normal again with the economy?
How are the load factors on RPT at the moment? Or are planes flying half empty?
Is this a sign that things are gradually getting back to normal again with the economy?
How are the load factors on RPT at the moment? Or are planes flying half empty?
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According to the Airports Council, there is a slow recovery ahead for global aviation industry.
"The global aviation industry is not expected to recover quickly from the economic downturn, says the Airports Council International (ACI), representing 597 members operating over 1,679 airports in 177 countries and territories.
While worldwide traffic growth in Jun-2009 showed some “positive signs of improvement and a possible indicator that the beginnings of a more durable turn-around are in the making”, it warned that “persistent negative factors, including on-going economic uncertainty, tight financial markets, concerns about a global health threat, and geopolitical disruption in some nations, are likely to restrain the prospects of a rapid rebound”.
ACI concluded, “it is unlikely that we will recover the flat growth rate before the fourth quarter of the year”
Chief Economist, Bart Van Ark, added, “the contraction [in 2Q2009] - though less severe than most forecasts - offers no sign of a V-shaped recovery. Consumer spending came out worse than expected and is likely to remain weak into the third quarter because of ongoing clogging in income and credit channels.
Mr Van Ark stated that the “very rapid decline in inventories”, which decimated global air freight volumes in late 2008 and early 2009, “raises hopes for a recovery in industrial production, but also increases chances of a pushback later in the year, as domestic and global markets remain weak”.
Mr Van Ark concluded, “with capital spending still falling and unemployment rising, neither investors nor workers are likely to see strong rewards anytime soon”.
"The global aviation industry is not expected to recover quickly from the economic downturn, says the Airports Council International (ACI), representing 597 members operating over 1,679 airports in 177 countries and territories.
While worldwide traffic growth in Jun-2009 showed some “positive signs of improvement and a possible indicator that the beginnings of a more durable turn-around are in the making”, it warned that “persistent negative factors, including on-going economic uncertainty, tight financial markets, concerns about a global health threat, and geopolitical disruption in some nations, are likely to restrain the prospects of a rapid rebound”.
ACI concluded, “it is unlikely that we will recover the flat growth rate before the fourth quarter of the year”
Chief Economist, Bart Van Ark, added, “the contraction [in 2Q2009] - though less severe than most forecasts - offers no sign of a V-shaped recovery. Consumer spending came out worse than expected and is likely to remain weak into the third quarter because of ongoing clogging in income and credit channels.
Mr Van Ark stated that the “very rapid decline in inventories”, which decimated global air freight volumes in late 2008 and early 2009, “raises hopes for a recovery in industrial production, but also increases chances of a pushback later in the year, as domestic and global markets remain weak”.
Mr Van Ark concluded, “with capital spending still falling and unemployment rising, neither investors nor workers are likely to see strong rewards anytime soon”.
Last edited by Gingerbread; 3rd Aug 2009 at 08:01.
Nunc est bibendum
How are the load factors on RPT at the moment? Or are planes flying half empty?
Grandpa Aerotart
Is unemployment, generally speaking, improving or getting worse?
What other international fundamentals have shown significant improvement?
I cant think of one - and no the stock markets are not fundamentals.
Don't mistake sentiment driven by stock market fear and greed, fear of missing a rally, and faux company profits based on creative accounting and govt bailouts as a sustainable recovery.
The Chinese economy is heavily dependent on massive govt stimulus - that cannot last a whole lot longer. The US economy is broken - next shoe to drop will be cubic losses in commercial real estate - shopping malls, factories etc. Why is that an issue? Think the retirement portfolios of 10s of millions of Americans. The Japanese economy is similarly reeling - how much longer before Australia follows around the S bend? Don't know but it can't be much longer....6 months maybe?
Then watch the govts stimulus run out of steam - watch the first home buyers grants bite all concerned on the arse big time.
Personally the loads I have been flying internationally have been excellent - came out of the ME the other night right on MZFW - 206 pax. I think this is due to 2 things,
1/. Most people have not lost their jobs yet and think the worst is over - so think they wont.
2/. Discounting by airlines.
I don't think that situation will necessarily hold up indefinitely. The world wide de-leveraging has a way to go yet.
What other international fundamentals have shown significant improvement?
I cant think of one - and no the stock markets are not fundamentals.
Don't mistake sentiment driven by stock market fear and greed, fear of missing a rally, and faux company profits based on creative accounting and govt bailouts as a sustainable recovery.
The Chinese economy is heavily dependent on massive govt stimulus - that cannot last a whole lot longer. The US economy is broken - next shoe to drop will be cubic losses in commercial real estate - shopping malls, factories etc. Why is that an issue? Think the retirement portfolios of 10s of millions of Americans. The Japanese economy is similarly reeling - how much longer before Australia follows around the S bend? Don't know but it can't be much longer....6 months maybe?
Then watch the govts stimulus run out of steam - watch the first home buyers grants bite all concerned on the arse big time.
Personally the loads I have been flying internationally have been excellent - came out of the ME the other night right on MZFW - 206 pax. I think this is due to 2 things,
1/. Most people have not lost their jobs yet and think the worst is over - so think they wont.
2/. Discounting by airlines.
I don't think that situation will necessarily hold up indefinitely. The world wide de-leveraging has a way to go yet.
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Chimbu, totally agree with your analysis.
Keep an eye on the oil price too. Every time the economy tries to recover from here on in it is going to run into the brick wall of decreasing supply. Demand is still low at the moment thanks to the GFC, yet oil is back over $70 bbl.
There will be no V or U shaped recovery, just a ratcheting down WWWWW.
Keep an eye on the oil price too. Every time the economy tries to recover from here on in it is going to run into the brick wall of decreasing supply. Demand is still low at the moment thanks to the GFC, yet oil is back over $70 bbl.
There will be no V or U shaped recovery, just a ratcheting down WWWWW.
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Australia will be the only developed country in the world with interest rates up at 13%.
If you have more leaders like MT you will never get back in...
Keep an eye on the oil price too.
The price of oil has gone up and down before...you might remember the 70's and the oil crisis then...and did aviation collapse then.....
I remember a thread not that long ago telling us that we would all have died from Swine flu by now.....
I guess there will always be someone walking around telling us the end is near.
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It can't be denied however that the market has consistently risen in the last 5-6 months. There has been afew drops but then its just gone straight back up again so..
Is the worst of the Global Financial Crisis behind us?
Is the worst of the Global Financial Crisis behind us?
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Financial crisi not over yet, says Dr Doom
ECONOMIST Nouriel Roubini, who famously identified the causes of the global financial crisis, says Australia will ride out the storm better than most, but predicts a global recovery will not start until next year and even after it does, there is a high chance it will be shortlived.
The closely followed New York University economics professor also said the Reserve Bank was unlikely to start hiking interest rates this year.
Professor Roubini, labelled Dr Doom when in 2005 and 2006 he predicted that mortgage defaults would trigger a massive US housing bust and deep recession, said while there was light at the end of the tunnel, the global recession would not run its course until the year was over.
He said consensus was too bullish and a market correction was likely, and added there was the prospect of a double-dip global recession.
Delivering the opening speech to the annual Diggers and Dealers mining conference in Kalgoorlie yesterday, Professor Roubini also doused some of the recent optimism that has been returning to the mining sector.
He said there was little scope for further gains in gold prices and that China had overstocked on commodities during the boom, which could weigh on prices in the second half.
"My reading of the data is that the accumulation of inventory of commodities by China has probably run at a rate that is larger than the underlying demand for these commodities is going to be, even in the scenario where there's a meaningful return of growth in China," he told The Australian.
"There may be greater softness in demand in the second half of this year and into some time in 2010 ... it's a meaningful risk."
Still, he said demand from China and India was real and he saw both "green shoots" and "yellow weeds" in recent global data. Australia is in recession, but lower levels of public debt, resilient housing markets and strong exports mean it is in better shape than the US, Europe and Japan.
"The recovery in Australia is going to be gradual, so maintaining and monitoring the fiscal stimulus for a bit longer is going to be desirable," he said.
"Australia could be one of first countries to increase policy rates after a phase of cutting. In my view it's more likely than not that tightening will start to occur next year rather than this year. The recovery is barely starting, inflationary pressures are still very contained because of rising unemployment and slackness of demand (so) a cautious approach is more likely to be taken."
Globally, policymakers will have to tread lightly to avoid a double-dip recession, he said.
If they tried to address high deficits too early, economies could be plunged back into recession, he said.
On the other hand, increases in deficits for further stimulus packages could be too much for economies to bear.
Professor Roubini said that if the global economy grew next year, further gains in commodities prices were expected.
However, at a conference in the nation's goldmining capital, used to having gold bulls paraded before it, the yellow metal was singled out as one commodity not likely to go up until at least the end of next year.
The Turkish-born academic said the two catalysts for recent gold price gains that had sent prices near $US1000 an ounce -- first inflation during the boom and then fears cash was not safe and the world was heading into a depression -- were not likely to be repeated.
"This year and next, the big story will be deflation," he said.
The good news for goldminers was that he did not see prices falling too much from their historically high prices of about $US950 an ounce.
Another highly anticipated speaker at the mining conference yesterday, Ivanhoe Mines' billionaire boss Robert Friedland, did not show up due to an important meeting elsewhere.
Speculation immediately turned to Ivanhoe and Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi deposit in Mongolia, where the pair are trying to strike a deal with the government that will enable the mine to start.
The closely followed New York University economics professor also said the Reserve Bank was unlikely to start hiking interest rates this year.
Professor Roubini, labelled Dr Doom when in 2005 and 2006 he predicted that mortgage defaults would trigger a massive US housing bust and deep recession, said while there was light at the end of the tunnel, the global recession would not run its course until the year was over.
He said consensus was too bullish and a market correction was likely, and added there was the prospect of a double-dip global recession.
Delivering the opening speech to the annual Diggers and Dealers mining conference in Kalgoorlie yesterday, Professor Roubini also doused some of the recent optimism that has been returning to the mining sector.
He said there was little scope for further gains in gold prices and that China had overstocked on commodities during the boom, which could weigh on prices in the second half.
"My reading of the data is that the accumulation of inventory of commodities by China has probably run at a rate that is larger than the underlying demand for these commodities is going to be, even in the scenario where there's a meaningful return of growth in China," he told The Australian.
"There may be greater softness in demand in the second half of this year and into some time in 2010 ... it's a meaningful risk."
Still, he said demand from China and India was real and he saw both "green shoots" and "yellow weeds" in recent global data. Australia is in recession, but lower levels of public debt, resilient housing markets and strong exports mean it is in better shape than the US, Europe and Japan.
"The recovery in Australia is going to be gradual, so maintaining and monitoring the fiscal stimulus for a bit longer is going to be desirable," he said.
"Australia could be one of first countries to increase policy rates after a phase of cutting. In my view it's more likely than not that tightening will start to occur next year rather than this year. The recovery is barely starting, inflationary pressures are still very contained because of rising unemployment and slackness of demand (so) a cautious approach is more likely to be taken."
Globally, policymakers will have to tread lightly to avoid a double-dip recession, he said.
If they tried to address high deficits too early, economies could be plunged back into recession, he said.
On the other hand, increases in deficits for further stimulus packages could be too much for economies to bear.
Professor Roubini said that if the global economy grew next year, further gains in commodities prices were expected.
However, at a conference in the nation's goldmining capital, used to having gold bulls paraded before it, the yellow metal was singled out as one commodity not likely to go up until at least the end of next year.
The Turkish-born academic said the two catalysts for recent gold price gains that had sent prices near $US1000 an ounce -- first inflation during the boom and then fears cash was not safe and the world was heading into a depression -- were not likely to be repeated.
"This year and next, the big story will be deflation," he said.
The good news for goldminers was that he did not see prices falling too much from their historically high prices of about $US950 an ounce.
Another highly anticipated speaker at the mining conference yesterday, Ivanhoe Mines' billionaire boss Robert Friedland, did not show up due to an important meeting elsewhere.
Speculation immediately turned to Ivanhoe and Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi deposit in Mongolia, where the pair are trying to strike a deal with the government that will enable the mine to start.
but last weekend when I went to a largish shopping centre in the western suburbs of Melbourne, it seemed like every man and his dog was out shopping.
At the time, I was on a shopping trip for more Australian property, but decided to hold off at the evidence of such retail gloom. The market I was looking at ( above seven figures ) has since regained composure and confidence.
I don't listen to pilot doomsdayers. 1) They are pilots 2) They are generally poor pilots averse to have ever taken a financial risk. I suppose that's why they're poor.
Australia will do fine. I would be better off if it didn't.
Grandpa Aerotart
Falling Leaf Peak Oil is a myth like Global Warming, over population, resource scarcity and any number of other Greeny/Neo Malthusian theories - the world has plenty of oil to last until we come up with something cheaper/better...maybe in another 500 years or so.
But the reality of the last 25 years is over and a new reality yet to become manifest - an endless cycle of credit driven asset price growth is simply not possible...particularly when the wages have not been keeping up with real inflation since the early 70s. That is why the average house in Australia is now 'worth' 7-8 x average wages when 3-4 x is more historically realistic and in line with the rest of the western world - and that was before the crash - Australia has the least affordable real estate in the western world. The housing bubble in Australia has yet to fully deflate - a fella I know has a house he thought was worth 3 mill, he was offered and knocked back 2.5 mill and now cant get offers near 2 mill.
The hope that US/EU/UK and Aust citizens will go back to the credit driven spending habits of the last 20 odd years is unrealistic - if they don't we can't have the sort of growth we have experienced in the bubble economies of the last decades.
Personally I think it will be a long U shaped recovery - but I don't think it has bottomed yet. Graphs I have seen shows the US stock market tracking with uncanny and frightening accuracy the same way it did in 1929/30. What happened back then was a sudden 40% drop followed by a 50% recovery and then an 80% drop followed by a depression that lasted until WW2. The US stockmarket didn't recover to its 1929 highs until about 1954.
I have seen nothing to suggest this rally is anything other than a suckers rally...despite the green shoots rhetoric.
History doesn't necessarily repeat but it does echo.
But the reality of the last 25 years is over and a new reality yet to become manifest - an endless cycle of credit driven asset price growth is simply not possible...particularly when the wages have not been keeping up with real inflation since the early 70s. That is why the average house in Australia is now 'worth' 7-8 x average wages when 3-4 x is more historically realistic and in line with the rest of the western world - and that was before the crash - Australia has the least affordable real estate in the western world. The housing bubble in Australia has yet to fully deflate - a fella I know has a house he thought was worth 3 mill, he was offered and knocked back 2.5 mill and now cant get offers near 2 mill.
The hope that US/EU/UK and Aust citizens will go back to the credit driven spending habits of the last 20 odd years is unrealistic - if they don't we can't have the sort of growth we have experienced in the bubble economies of the last decades.
Personally I think it will be a long U shaped recovery - but I don't think it has bottomed yet. Graphs I have seen shows the US stock market tracking with uncanny and frightening accuracy the same way it did in 1929/30. What happened back then was a sudden 40% drop followed by a 50% recovery and then an 80% drop followed by a depression that lasted until WW2. The US stockmarket didn't recover to its 1929 highs until about 1954.
I have seen nothing to suggest this rally is anything other than a suckers rally...despite the green shoots rhetoric.
History doesn't necessarily repeat but it does echo.
Considerably more financial levers have been pulled when compared to the Great Depression though, therefore the outcome of GFC may be considerably better than GD.
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Falling Leaf Peak Oil is a myth like Global Warming ... - the world has plenty of oil to last until we come up with something cheaper/better...maybe in another 500 years or so.
I guess we can completely ignore this IEA Chief Economist bloke then, obviously full of s&*t:
Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast
Catastrophic shortfalls threaten economic recovery, says world's top energy economist
By Steve Connor, Science Editor (The UK Independent)
Monday, 3 August 2009
The world is heading for a catastrophic energy crunch that could cripple a global economic recovery because most of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production, a leading energy economist has warned.
Higher oil prices brought on by a rapid increase in demand and a stagnation, or even decline, in supply could blow any recovery off course, said Dr Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the respected International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, which is charged with the task of assessing future energy supplies by OECD countries.
In an interview with The Independent, Dr Birol said that the public and many governments appeared to be oblivious to the fact that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far faster than previously predicted and that global production is likely to peak in about 10 years – at least a decade earlier than most governments had estimated.
But the first detailed assessment of more than 800 oil fields in the world, covering three quarters of global reserves, has found that most of the biggest fields have already peaked and that the rate of decline in oil production is now running at nearly twice the pace as calculated just two years ago. On top of this, there is a problem of chronic under-investment by oil-producing countries, a feature that is set to result in an "oil crunch" within the next five years which will jeopardise any hope of a recovery from the present global economic recession, he said.
In a stark warning to Britain and the other Western powers, Dr Birol said that the market power of the very few oil-producing countries that hold substantial reserves of oil – mostly in the Middle East – would increase rapidly as the oil crisis begins to grip after 2010.
There is now a real risk of a crunch in the oil supply after next year when demand picks up because not enough is being done to build up new supplies of oil to compensate for the rapid decline in existing fields.
The IEA estimates that the decline in oil production in existing fields is now running at 6.7 per cent a year compared to the 3.7 per cent decline it had estimated in 2007, which it now acknowledges to be wrong.
"If we see a tightness of the markets, people in the street will see it in terms of higher prices, much higher than we see now. It will have an impact on the economy, definitely, especially if we see this tightness in the markets in the next few years," Dr Birol said.
"It will be especially important because the global economy will still be very fragile, very vulnerable. Many people think there will be a recovery in a few years' time but it will be a slow recovery and a fragile recovery and we will have the risk that the recovery will be strangled with higher oil prices," he told The Independent.
In its first-ever assessment of the world's major oil fields, the IEA concluded that the global energy system was at a crossroads and that consumption of oil was "patently unsustainable", with expected demand far outstripping supply.
Oil production has already peaked in non-Opec countries and the era of cheap oil has come to an end, it warned.
In most fields, oil production has now peaked, which means that other sources of supply have to be found to meet existing demand.
Even if demand remained steady, the world would have to find the equivalent of four Saudi Arabias to maintain production, and six Saudi Arabias if it is to keep up with the expected increase in demand between now and 2030, Dr Birol said.
"It's a big challenge in terms of the geology, in terms of the investment and in terms of the geopolitics. So this is a big risk and it's mainly because of the rates of the declining oil fields," he said.
"Many governments now are more and more aware that at least the day of cheap and easy oil is over... [however] I'm not very optimistic about governments being aware of the difficulties we may face in the oil supply," he said.
Catastrophic shortfalls threaten economic recovery, says world's top energy economist
By Steve Connor, Science Editor (The UK Independent)
Monday, 3 August 2009
The world is heading for a catastrophic energy crunch that could cripple a global economic recovery because most of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production, a leading energy economist has warned.
Higher oil prices brought on by a rapid increase in demand and a stagnation, or even decline, in supply could blow any recovery off course, said Dr Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the respected International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, which is charged with the task of assessing future energy supplies by OECD countries.
In an interview with The Independent, Dr Birol said that the public and many governments appeared to be oblivious to the fact that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far faster than previously predicted and that global production is likely to peak in about 10 years – at least a decade earlier than most governments had estimated.
But the first detailed assessment of more than 800 oil fields in the world, covering three quarters of global reserves, has found that most of the biggest fields have already peaked and that the rate of decline in oil production is now running at nearly twice the pace as calculated just two years ago. On top of this, there is a problem of chronic under-investment by oil-producing countries, a feature that is set to result in an "oil crunch" within the next five years which will jeopardise any hope of a recovery from the present global economic recession, he said.
In a stark warning to Britain and the other Western powers, Dr Birol said that the market power of the very few oil-producing countries that hold substantial reserves of oil – mostly in the Middle East – would increase rapidly as the oil crisis begins to grip after 2010.
There is now a real risk of a crunch in the oil supply after next year when demand picks up because not enough is being done to build up new supplies of oil to compensate for the rapid decline in existing fields.
The IEA estimates that the decline in oil production in existing fields is now running at 6.7 per cent a year compared to the 3.7 per cent decline it had estimated in 2007, which it now acknowledges to be wrong.
"If we see a tightness of the markets, people in the street will see it in terms of higher prices, much higher than we see now. It will have an impact on the economy, definitely, especially if we see this tightness in the markets in the next few years," Dr Birol said.
"It will be especially important because the global economy will still be very fragile, very vulnerable. Many people think there will be a recovery in a few years' time but it will be a slow recovery and a fragile recovery and we will have the risk that the recovery will be strangled with higher oil prices," he told The Independent.
In its first-ever assessment of the world's major oil fields, the IEA concluded that the global energy system was at a crossroads and that consumption of oil was "patently unsustainable", with expected demand far outstripping supply.
Oil production has already peaked in non-Opec countries and the era of cheap oil has come to an end, it warned.
In most fields, oil production has now peaked, which means that other sources of supply have to be found to meet existing demand.
Even if demand remained steady, the world would have to find the equivalent of four Saudi Arabias to maintain production, and six Saudi Arabias if it is to keep up with the expected increase in demand between now and 2030, Dr Birol said.
"It's a big challenge in terms of the geology, in terms of the investment and in terms of the geopolitics. So this is a big risk and it's mainly because of the rates of the declining oil fields," he said.
"Many governments now are more and more aware that at least the day of cheap and easy oil is over... [however] I'm not very optimistic about governments being aware of the difficulties we may face in the oil supply," he said.
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Another doomsday reporter.....I asked you a question before falling leaf...Do you really think aviation is the only industry that relies on Oil?
But here are a few questions for you:
1. Unlike other modes of transport, how readily can aircraft be powered by alternatives? And I'm not talking ethanol which uses as much oil to produce as that it replaces when you consider fertiliser, farm machinery, refining.
2. Can you run an aircraft on electricity? Hydrogen? Coal?
3. How much of the present demand for air travel is only because it is cheap?
4. What is the priority for air travel, if fuel becomes limited?
Grandpa Aerotart
Falling leaf the average of
BP Statistical Revue (Yr end 2007) 1,238.892 Billion Barrels
Oil and Gas Journal (January 2009) 1,342.207 Billion Barrels
World Oil(Yr end 2007) 1,184.208 Billion Barrels
For Proven reserves of oil ONLY
is 1,255.102 Billion Barrels of OIL
1255.102/135 = 9.29
9.29 x 139 yrs = 1291 yrs.
And that is just oil - not oil shale (truly vast reserves - as in trillions of barrels of oil), natural gas, coal etc.
Here is the January 2009 figure for Natural Gas
6,436.029 Trillion cubic feet
And the above assumes we find no more - and we have always found more for the last 150 yrs - and about every 15 years for those 150 years - so basically 10 times so far - some MORON has started a Peak Oil scare campaign - they have been wrong so far 10 times.
And no I don't expect we'll use the same amount/139 yr period going forward but equally do you honestly think we will still be using oil as we do now in 100 or 200 yrs given the technology advances of the last 100 yrs?
You think mans ability to do things better has peaked?
Just say it has and we discover no more oil/oil shale/gas/etc - well my friend I am 47 and my daughter is 20 - I will be dead in 40 odd years max and she in about 65 max - and to be perfectly frank I REALLY don't give a flying fck about what happens 20 generations thereafter - if they haven't worked it out by then they deserve whatever follows!!
I'll let you in on another well kept secret - well actually the UN publishes this stuff all the time but the predominately left wing media choses to pretty much ignore it. World wide fertility rates are falling and have been falling for decades - several decades - as in more than 2 - so the world population is increasing at a decreasing rate.
If that trends continues there will be less people on the planet in 2100 than there are now.
Googling 'Peak+Oil' and believing the first thing that pops up is just a tad naive.
BP Statistical Revue (Yr end 2007) 1,238.892 Billion Barrels
Oil and Gas Journal (January 2009) 1,342.207 Billion Barrels
World Oil(Yr end 2007) 1,184.208 Billion Barrels
For Proven reserves of oil ONLY
is 1,255.102 Billion Barrels of OIL
John Jones in the School of Engineering, at the University of Aberdeen, UK, suggests that the figures cited by Istvan Lakatos and Julianna Lakatos-Szabo for which they give no references grossly underestimates how much oil we have used already. Jones says that we have used at least 135 billion barrels of oil since 1870, the period during which J.D. Rockefeller established The Standard Oil Company and began drilling in earnest.
9.29 x 139 yrs = 1291 yrs.
And that is just oil - not oil shale (truly vast reserves - as in trillions of barrels of oil), natural gas, coal etc.
Here is the January 2009 figure for Natural Gas
6,436.029 Trillion cubic feet
And the above assumes we find no more - and we have always found more for the last 150 yrs - and about every 15 years for those 150 years - so basically 10 times so far - some MORON has started a Peak Oil scare campaign - they have been wrong so far 10 times.
And no I don't expect we'll use the same amount/139 yr period going forward but equally do you honestly think we will still be using oil as we do now in 100 or 200 yrs given the technology advances of the last 100 yrs?
You think mans ability to do things better has peaked?
Just say it has and we discover no more oil/oil shale/gas/etc - well my friend I am 47 and my daughter is 20 - I will be dead in 40 odd years max and she in about 65 max - and to be perfectly frank I REALLY don't give a flying fck about what happens 20 generations thereafter - if they haven't worked it out by then they deserve whatever follows!!
I'll let you in on another well kept secret - well actually the UN publishes this stuff all the time but the predominately left wing media choses to pretty much ignore it. World wide fertility rates are falling and have been falling for decades - several decades - as in more than 2 - so the world population is increasing at a decreasing rate.
If that trends continues there will be less people on the planet in 2100 than there are now.
Googling 'Peak+Oil' and believing the first thing that pops up is just a tad naive.
Well, that clears up that one then...
"Falling Leaf Peak Oil is a myth like Global Warming, over population, resource scarcity and any number of other Greeny/Neo Malthusian theories."
Oh yes, I just heard. There is a very clever man called Mr Fielding who has found a GRAPH which PROVES global warming is all bunkum.
Yippee! now we can all carry on stuffing up the planet. I must admit I was a tad worried for a while then, along with the millions of scientifically trained people who form the mainstream of international scientific opinion. After all, what do THEY know? Dumb sheep who just follow the crowd. Harrumph!
Oh yes, I just heard. There is a very clever man called Mr Fielding who has found a GRAPH which PROVES global warming is all bunkum.
Yippee! now we can all carry on stuffing up the planet. I must admit I was a tad worried for a while then, along with the millions of scientifically trained people who form the mainstream of international scientific opinion. After all, what do THEY know? Dumb sheep who just follow the crowd. Harrumph!
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The end is near....repent....it's not too late....become a vegetarian...cattle create too much green house gases....
How many times have we heard doomsday prophets vent their visions of the future and still nothing ever happens....
Falling leaf....You did not answer my question about the oil crisis in the 70's...
Did aviation or indeed the world slip into oblivion at that time....Hang on I'll walk out side and see if the sun has come up this morning....be patient and I'll be back in a minute...
Nooooooooo sorry,it's a beautiful morning,the sun is out and the birds are singing and unfortunately I have to go and do some work....
Life goes on as it always has done ......
Unless some loony in North Korea presses a button it .....and there's not much we can do about that.
I doubt that falling Leaf and others are correct.My point to Falling Leaf though is that perhaps if the cost of fuel does increase we will have to adapt as mankind has done millions of times before...
Perhaps if the cost of fuel does become a significant issue we will have to have smaller aircraft and it will be like the old days of aviation when only the well heeled can afford to fly...maybe today's aircraft like the A380 are not the way of the future but does it mean we will all have to live a subsistence life again...I doubt it.
If you want to listen to these prophets of doom, you may as well cash it in today.
As I said yesterday,the same people were harping on about the swine flu only a few weeks ago but now that that danger is slipping away they are panicking about oil......what will it be next.....meteorites?
How many times have we heard doomsday prophets vent their visions of the future and still nothing ever happens....
Falling leaf....You did not answer my question about the oil crisis in the 70's...
Did aviation or indeed the world slip into oblivion at that time....Hang on I'll walk out side and see if the sun has come up this morning....be patient and I'll be back in a minute...
Nooooooooo sorry,it's a beautiful morning,the sun is out and the birds are singing and unfortunately I have to go and do some work....
Life goes on as it always has done ......
Unless some loony in North Korea presses a button it .....and there's not much we can do about that.
I doubt that falling Leaf and others are correct.My point to Falling Leaf though is that perhaps if the cost of fuel does increase we will have to adapt as mankind has done millions of times before...
Perhaps if the cost of fuel does become a significant issue we will have to have smaller aircraft and it will be like the old days of aviation when only the well heeled can afford to fly...maybe today's aircraft like the A380 are not the way of the future but does it mean we will all have to live a subsistence life again...I doubt it.
If you want to listen to these prophets of doom, you may as well cash it in today.
As I said yesterday,the same people were harping on about the swine flu only a few weeks ago but now that that danger is slipping away they are panicking about oil......what will it be next.....meteorites?
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Interest rates in Australia are forecast to double in the next 12-18 months. That and the end of the bogus first home buyers scheme will stop the housing bubble in its tracks. Industry will also be affected.
On the up side, those quoting the rise of the oil price are missing the fact that the US dollar is falling against most major currencies and especially the AUD. Its all relative folks.
On the up side, those quoting the rise of the oil price are missing the fact that the US dollar is falling against most major currencies and especially the AUD. Its all relative folks.
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Yippee! now we can all carry on stuffing up the planet
I know it's hard on Prune not to be sarcastic and condescending, but why don't you have a go at debunking or disproving Chimbu's figures. I for one, as airline employee, would like to know the truth. My future income depends on it!
If you can't see that the anthro climate change push has taken on an evangelical following, then go back and look at your comments. "Millions of scientifically trained people who form the mainstream of international scientific opionion". Really? When did science become consensus based? Millions? Are these the same "millions" that predicted an Ice Age in the 70's due to greenhouse gases?
James, tell us honestly. Have you stopped driving/flying/using electricity? You suggest that our world, or at least our children's world is about to become like Mad Max, so the world depends on YOU going back to the stone age.
Last edited by kotoyebe; 4th Aug 2009 at 23:29.