Pig flu and an economic crisis...
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A bit more info:
WHO | Assessing the severity of an influenza pandemic
WHO | Assessing the severity of an influenza pandemic
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Ha Ha What attention? Call me when this non-event becomes an event!
There is still SARS there is still Bird Flu, there is still Swine Flu, quite frankly, I am more likely killed by a stupid drunk driver!
Everyone can point to articles but the good old GUT feeling usually works out! hehe!
There is still SARS there is still Bird Flu, there is still Swine Flu, quite frankly, I am more likely killed by a stupid drunk driver!
Everyone can point to articles but the good old GUT feeling usually works out! hehe!
Grandpa Aerotart
Hey Conehead how many people have died of normal influenza since the beginning of this overhyped 'pandemic'?
Worldwide about 6000 per week...so roughly 24000 since the WHO and the media starting ramping up the rhetoric on 'swine flu'?
Deaths confirmed as a result of swine flu to date...around 60? And all bar a couple in Mexico?
I am going to suggest to you 'Swine' Flu is less dangerous than normal influenza.
Worldwide about 6000 per week...so roughly 24000 since the WHO and the media starting ramping up the rhetoric on 'swine flu'?
Deaths confirmed as a result of swine flu to date...around 60? And all bar a couple in Mexico?
I am going to suggest to you 'Swine' Flu is less dangerous than normal influenza.
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Hi Chuck.
I don't waste the effort in PPRuNe style 'debates'. The facts speak for themseleves old mate and a little research and historical study goes a long way.
I am not here to eductae anyone but I do take the time to bring info to the attention of my colleagues who may be interested.
Don't listen to me, listen to the worlds foremost authorities and consider what is prudent in that light.
Cheers,
Brad
I don't waste the effort in PPRuNe style 'debates'. The facts speak for themseleves old mate and a little research and historical study goes a long way.
I am not here to eductae anyone but I do take the time to bring info to the attention of my colleagues who may be interested.
Don't listen to me, listen to the worlds foremost authorities and consider what is prudent in that light.
Cheers,
Brad
Current situation is that the W.H.O. will not declare a phase Six pandemic, they keep changing the definition on the run.
Just hope we can keep it out of Australia for a few more weeks.
We still don't know the case fatality rate, we know that its below 1% when ventilators, Tamiflu and intensive care is available.
What we don't know is what the CFR will be when medical facilities are swamped and those technologies are no longer available. Bear in mind that the 1918 pandemic had a CFR of around 2.5%.
By way of example, assuming there is a 1918 style first wave in the U.S., that means about 100 million people get sick over about Three months. About 10% of cases currently require hospitalisation and intensive care.
That means about 10 million people will require intensive care.
There are only about a million hospital beds in the U.S. and around 150,000 of those are intensive care.
Do you now understand that it is not the lethality of the disease that is the killer, its the magnitude - the huge number of concurrent cases?
It's not going to be good for the airline industry either - passenger numbers will fall, but on a personal level the bug predominantly attacks younger folk 15 - 35 and I would imagine that a DAME would not like you to fly for at least a month after recovery.
Just hope we can keep it out of Australia for a few more weeks.
We still don't know the case fatality rate, we know that its below 1% when ventilators, Tamiflu and intensive care is available.
What we don't know is what the CFR will be when medical facilities are swamped and those technologies are no longer available. Bear in mind that the 1918 pandemic had a CFR of around 2.5%.
By way of example, assuming there is a 1918 style first wave in the U.S., that means about 100 million people get sick over about Three months. About 10% of cases currently require hospitalisation and intensive care.
That means about 10 million people will require intensive care.
There are only about a million hospital beds in the U.S. and around 150,000 of those are intensive care.
Do you now understand that it is not the lethality of the disease that is the killer, its the magnitude - the huge number of concurrent cases?
It's not going to be good for the airline industry either - passenger numbers will fall, but on a personal level the bug predominantly attacks younger folk 15 - 35 and I would imagine that a DAME would not like you to fly for at least a month after recovery.
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A DAME would not let you fly for a month? This has got to be the biggest joke I have ever heard. Once I was hit by a atlas box cover and required stitches near the eye socket. When I was at the DAME surgery, the team manager called and the DAME ask me if I had any duties the following three days, I said I will probably be on "A" the DAME then chat with the team manager and then came back to tell me that he actually wanted me to rest for 3 days until he can remove the stitches, but the team manager told the DAME that I was assigned by ops a very simple Singapore return so that influenced his decision. The DAME said to me that the team manager specifically said it was a very simple one sector trip and back, nothing too stressful, so upon hearing the team manager assured him it was a "simple" trip, he put me back to work.
The DAME did say if it was not a simple trip as the team manager had assured him, he would not let me go to work.
Is there any wonder why team managers are the most hated people in the organisation?
The DAME did say if it was not a simple trip as the team manager had assured him, he would not let me go to work.
Is there any wonder why team managers are the most hated people in the organisation?
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What airline do you work for?
You couldn't possibly be flight crew, which makes you cabin crew.
Does your Team Manager (what are they?) actually have access to your private medical records with with a qualified medical practitioner?
That's an intriguing post you wrote there.
You couldn't possibly be flight crew, which makes you cabin crew.
Does your Team Manager (what are they?) actually have access to your private medical records with with a qualified medical practitioner?
That's an intriguing post you wrote there.
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Bradley, Sunfish, will you help me out here?
I think the W.H.O. confirmed H1N1 cannot be contained in one area, or even several areas. Restricting the passage of people on airliners won't help keep the flu out of Australia or any other country. Is this right?
If it's not true, what are the measures we can best use to keep the flu out of Australia, and are they being utilized?
If the W.H.O. is on the money, why do you propogate the hype in 2009 instead of waiting till next year.
Time magazine just ran a copy saying it's all over until 2010. I figure they've used the good oil in greasing their rag. Are they quoting reliable sources?
You, and Time magazine, identify the world's health facilities as unable able to cope with forecasted numbers of infected people. Time differs in reporting we don't have to worry about that inconvenient truth until 2010.
If that date were an absolute, is there sufficient time to prepare, and if so, why do you keep banging on about how we're stuffed NOW, not later?
Lastly, isn't Tamiflu a dud if H1N1 mutates, as virus' are prone to do?
Does that mean we're doomed?
I know I am.
It's all a mystery to me, but I'm not at all worried. Hungry, but not worried.
I think the W.H.O. confirmed H1N1 cannot be contained in one area, or even several areas. Restricting the passage of people on airliners won't help keep the flu out of Australia or any other country. Is this right?
If it's not true, what are the measures we can best use to keep the flu out of Australia, and are they being utilized?
If the W.H.O. is on the money, why do you propogate the hype in 2009 instead of waiting till next year.
Time magazine just ran a copy saying it's all over until 2010. I figure they've used the good oil in greasing their rag. Are they quoting reliable sources?
You, and Time magazine, identify the world's health facilities as unable able to cope with forecasted numbers of infected people. Time differs in reporting we don't have to worry about that inconvenient truth until 2010.
If that date were an absolute, is there sufficient time to prepare, and if so, why do you keep banging on about how we're stuffed NOW, not later?
Lastly, isn't Tamiflu a dud if H1N1 mutates, as virus' are prone to do?
Does that mean we're doomed?
I know I am.
It's all a mystery to me, but I'm not at all worried. Hungry, but not worried.
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Do people STILL believe in this swine flu nonsense??
The media was only flogging it to begin with because not only does it make a great story, but it also takes the public's mind off the recession, which until then had dominated our TV screens. Now that the budget has been released, the media has something else to claw onto and funnily enough we haven't heard a single thing about the "deadly" swine flu since.
The media was only flogging it to begin with because not only does it make a great story, but it also takes the public's mind off the recession, which until then had dominated our TV screens. Now that the budget has been released, the media has something else to claw onto and funnily enough we haven't heard a single thing about the "deadly" swine flu since.
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That's the way the media works. Just because the flu is off the headlines, doesn't mean it's not out there still.
So far, the death rate is no different from regular flu. H1N1 is noteworthy in its ability to attack very healthy, young people and the fact that it's active at the start of northern summer. It should go quiet for a while as kids in the northern hemisphere break for summer, but it is expected to rebound in autumn. The concern is in the numbers it may effect and if it mutates to something more severe.
There's no reason to panic, but likewise, there's no harm in keeping informed.
So far, the death rate is no different from regular flu. H1N1 is noteworthy in its ability to attack very healthy, young people and the fact that it's active at the start of northern summer. It should go quiet for a while as kids in the northern hemisphere break for summer, but it is expected to rebound in autumn. The concern is in the numbers it may effect and if it mutates to something more severe.
There's no reason to panic, but likewise, there's no harm in keeping informed.
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4PW
I think it is a foregone conclusion Qantas does not really police privacy and confidential records they way they police their cabin crew.
It is quite common to hear and see team managers talking about other people's medical condition casually over the phone with DAME without a care in the world. I think this practice has gone on forever. Oddly no one cares. In fact I even know that any CSM can waltz through any crews performance review. This has happened in the Perth Brisbane Melbourne base (smaller bases where management cover up their mistakes all the time) in QCC it is a little trickier but not entirely impossible for these managers to access anyone who is not a manager's files That's just the culture in Qantas: Absolute disrespect for each other, and total disregard for the law, like how they go about price fixing without a care in the world about the law.
What airline do you work for?
You couldn't possibly be flight crew, which makes you cabin crew.
Does your Team Manager (what are they?) actually have access to your private medical records with with a qualified medical practitioner?
That's an intriguing post you wrote there.
You couldn't possibly be flight crew, which makes you cabin crew.
Does your Team Manager (what are they?) actually have access to your private medical records with with a qualified medical practitioner?
That's an intriguing post you wrote there.
It is quite common to hear and see team managers talking about other people's medical condition casually over the phone with DAME without a care in the world. I think this practice has gone on forever. Oddly no one cares. In fact I even know that any CSM can waltz through any crews performance review. This has happened in the Perth Brisbane Melbourne base (smaller bases where management cover up their mistakes all the time) in QCC it is a little trickier but not entirely impossible for these managers to access anyone who is not a manager's files That's just the culture in Qantas: Absolute disrespect for each other, and total disregard for the law, like how they go about price fixing without a care in the world about the law.
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Meh, but you have to love the biased Australian media, particularly when people are dying in Mexico (no disrespect intended), yet the #1 headline here is something along the lines of:
"3 PEOPLE IN AUSTRALIA TESTED FOR SWINE FLU"
Get the facts first, then inform us. Just trying to spread unnecessary panic...
"3 PEOPLE IN AUSTRALIA TESTED FOR SWINE FLU"
Get the facts first, then inform us. Just trying to spread unnecessary panic...
4PW's, attempted answers below:
Yes, it's right unless we destroy the airline industry, our economy and quarantine ourselves. What we can do, and are doing is DELAY it's arrival in Australia and buy ourselves time to prepare a vaccine and make preparations for when it does arrive.
You should already know the answer to that if you are a professional international pilot. Arriving aircraft don't get automatic pratique any more, health cards are required and there is inbound thermal scanning as well as teams at each international airport. Now that can't pick up asymptomatic cases, but it's a start. When we get a confirmed case, we can at least have a go at contact tracing and blanketing them with Tamiflu as well
Flu traditionally spreads best in winter. The Northern hemisphere is going into spring/summer, they therefore expect their next fall/winter to be the riskiest time for them. Time is a Northern hemisphere magazine.
You should be aware that the Northern Hemisphere folks are busy watching what happens to us since we are entering our flu season.
If H1N1 arrives in Australia NOW, then the time to prepare is over, it's "come as you are". In a pandemic, there is no way that medical facilities can cope. State and Federal plans are already in place to deal with the overflow as best they can. I would imagine that these plans will be tuned as we get better information on what this bug can do.
The best analogy I've read about its behaviour and possible mutations is that it is like a little puppy dog at present, we don't know what it is going to grow into, a Wolf or a Pekinese?
Thank God we live in Australia. We have the tyranny of distance on our side for once. We have our own flu lab at Parkville who, I imagine, are busy on seed strains for a vaccine and CSL can churn out enough for all in Australia pretty quickly.
To take a leaf from John Howard, "be alert but not alarmed", do you have a plan if you or your family get sick? Do you have kids at school? What if it closes? Does your employer have a pandemic plan? What if you get sick with this bug far from home on a charter or somewhere? These are what you should be thinking about.
I think the W.H.O. confirmed H1N1 cannot be contained in one area, or even several areas. Restricting the passage of people on airliners won't help keep the flu out of Australia or any other country. Is this right?
If it's not true, what are the measures we can best use to keep the flu out of Australia, and are they being utilized?
If the W.H.O. is on the money, why do you propogate the hype in 2009 instead of waiting till next year.
Time magazine just ran a copy saying it's all over until 2010. I figure they've used the good oil in greasing their rag. Are they quoting reliable sources?
Time magazine just ran a copy saying it's all over until 2010. I figure they've used the good oil in greasing their rag. Are they quoting reliable sources?
You should be aware that the Northern Hemisphere folks are busy watching what happens to us since we are entering our flu season.
You, and Time magazine, identify the world's health facilities as unable able to cope with forecasted numbers of infected people. Time differs in reporting we don't have to worry about that inconvenient truth until 2010.
If that date were an absolute, is there sufficient time to prepare, and if so, why do you keep banging on about how we're stuffed NOW, not later?
If that date were an absolute, is there sufficient time to prepare, and if so, why do you keep banging on about how we're stuffed NOW, not later?
If H1N1 arrives in Australia NOW, then the time to prepare is over, it's "come as you are". In a pandemic, there is no way that medical facilities can cope. State and Federal plans are already in place to deal with the overflow as best they can. I would imagine that these plans will be tuned as we get better information on what this bug can do.
The best analogy I've read about its behaviour and possible mutations is that it is like a little puppy dog at present, we don't know what it is going to grow into, a Wolf or a Pekinese?
Lastly, isn't Tamiflu a dud if H1N1 mutates, as virus' are prone to do?
Does that mean we're doomed?
Does that mean we're doomed?
It's all a mystery to me, but I'm not at all worried. Hungry, but not worried.
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Check out the nbr of fatal car accident victims in Australia since this last mainly media beatup has started, if it equals he same amount of deaths, then we should start to become concerned, if it doesn't, time to move on to the next scare, last year it was horses, this year it is pigs, next year it will be caused by eating cabbage, the media are reeling the money in, and will extend it as long as possible, meanwhile most Australians this winter will get the good ol common garden flu, survive, and hang out for summer (as usual).
TG:
Teresa, you do not understand what you are talking about. I think you are up that river in Egypt - de nile.
It is not the lethality (I Hope!) of the Pandemic Flu that is going to cause the trouble it is the shear number of cases that will appear in a very short time. Please get that into your head.
The "trouble" I'm talking about is the overwhelming of our medical system and also massive absenteeism among the labour force which has the potential to damage the economy severely.
To put it in your own words:
Yes, Teresa, and what happens to the injured when there are no hospital beds available for them because they are all occupied by Flu patients?
The outcome of this Pandemic is highly uncertain, and hopefully it may fizzle out, although it shows no signs of doing so. The virus is far more infectious than seasonal Flu at present and, thanks to air travel, it has spread around the world very fast.
The statistics at the moment appear to show:
1. It is highly infectious.
2. The Case fatality rate is less than 1% - but that is with expert medical treatement, intensive care, ventilators etc.
3. 10% of patients require intensive hospital treatment to recover.
4. The growth in case numbers of the virus are following an exponential curve at present - which is what is expected.
Modelling and experience suggests that the Pandemic first wave will peak about 90 days after the start, and at that time around 30% of the population will be infected. In Australia, that would mean around Six Million cases with 10% - 600,000 people requiring hospitalisation - and they aren't going to get it.
Please visit Flu Wiki - Main - Flu Wiki
Check out the number of fatal car accident victims in Australia since this last mainly media beatup has started, if it equals he same amount of deaths, then we should start to become concerned, if it doesn't, time to move on to the next scare, last year it was horses, this year it is pigs, next year it will be caused by eating cabbage, the media are reeling the money in, and will extend it as long as possible, meanwhile most Australians this winter will get the good ol common garden flu, survive, and hang out for summer (as usual
It is not the lethality (I Hope!) of the Pandemic Flu that is going to cause the trouble it is the shear number of cases that will appear in a very short time. Please get that into your head.
The "trouble" I'm talking about is the overwhelming of our medical system and also massive absenteeism among the labour force which has the potential to damage the economy severely.
To put it in your own words:
Check out the number of fatal car accident victims in Australia since this last mainly media beatup has started,
The outcome of this Pandemic is highly uncertain, and hopefully it may fizzle out, although it shows no signs of doing so. The virus is far more infectious than seasonal Flu at present and, thanks to air travel, it has spread around the world very fast.
The statistics at the moment appear to show:
1. It is highly infectious.
2. The Case fatality rate is less than 1% - but that is with expert medical treatement, intensive care, ventilators etc.
3. 10% of patients require intensive hospital treatment to recover.
4. The growth in case numbers of the virus are following an exponential curve at present - which is what is expected.
Modelling and experience suggests that the Pandemic first wave will peak about 90 days after the start, and at that time around 30% of the population will be infected. In Australia, that would mean around Six Million cases with 10% - 600,000 people requiring hospitalisation - and they aren't going to get it.
Please visit Flu Wiki - Main - Flu Wiki