TG:
Check out the number of fatal car accident victims in Australia since this last mainly media beatup has started, if it equals he same amount of deaths, then we should start to become concerned, if it doesn't, time to move on to the next scare, last year it was horses, this year it is pigs, next year it will be caused by eating cabbage, the media are reeling the money in, and will extend it as long as possible, meanwhile most Australians this winter will get the good ol common garden flu, survive, and hang out for summer (as usual
Teresa, you do not understand what you are talking about. I think you are up that river in Egypt - de nile.
It is not the
lethality (I Hope!) of the Pandemic Flu that is going to cause the trouble it is the shear
number of cases that will appear in a very short time. Please get that into your head.
The "trouble" I'm talking about is the overwhelming of our medical system and also massive absenteeism among the labour force which has the potential to damage the economy severely.
To put it in your own words:
Check out the number of fatal car accident victims in Australia since this last mainly media beatup has started,
Yes, Teresa,
and what happens to the injured when there are no hospital beds available for them because they are all occupied by Flu patients?
The outcome of this Pandemic is highly uncertain, and hopefully it may fizzle out, although it shows no signs of doing so. The virus is far more infectious than seasonal Flu at present and, thanks to air travel, it has spread around the world very fast.
The statistics at the moment appear to show:
1. It is highly infectious.
2. The Case fatality rate is less than 1% - but that is with expert medical treatement, intensive care, ventilators etc.
3.
10% of patients require intensive hospital treatment to recover.
4. The growth in case numbers of the virus are following an exponential curve at present - which is what is expected.
Modelling and experience suggests that the Pandemic first wave will peak about 90 days after the start, and at that time around 30% of the population will be infected. In Australia, that would mean around Six Million cases with 10% - 600,000 people requiring hospitalisation - and they aren't going to get it.
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