Pig flu and an economic crisis...
the numbers will go up and down:
Might be a good time to head for Alice Springs for a sabbatical
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Sunfish what is your address, I wil send you a mask and a thermometer, I will also bet you my right n$t, you are still with us in 6 months time.
Grandpa Aerotart
Sunfish you REALLY need to get hold of a book called The Science of Fear by Daniel Gardner.
The book is basically about how irrational fear is actually dangerous...and why our brains work the way they do.
It also explains a lot of other interesting facts about our psyche...as in why so many people believe in disastrous global warming when there is actually no strong evidence to support that hypothesis...and a shedload of other stuff...including fears about 'pandemics' and WHY those fears are irrational.
Good read!!
The book is basically about how irrational fear is actually dangerous...and why our brains work the way they do.
It also explains a lot of other interesting facts about our psyche...as in why so many people believe in disastrous global warming when there is actually no strong evidence to support that hypothesis...and a shedload of other stuff...including fears about 'pandemics' and WHY those fears are irrational.
Good read!!
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Let's not pick on Sunfish. He's fair dinkum, just doesn't agree with the rest of us.
I'm awake at an odd hour, again. Back from the other side of the world, I am. Two hours here, three hours there; pretty soon my body will know where it is and sleep through the night. That'll be just in time to go back to work.
I'm not an aviation journalist, travel journalist or financial journalist. Sorry if I misled you.
The figures I quoted came from the Financial Times. I didn't know they were misinformed. Do you really think they are? It's a great sub. Pretty inexpensive as an online publication, and very readable. The streaming video section alone is worth the price of US$3.79 a week, online.
We're preparing for global pandemic by taking the kids to the neighbors farm, 45 minutes south of us. Camping, fishing, shooting the ood roo, stargazing at night. I hear Orion is high in the night sky.
I'll buy the book, Chuck, thanks.
I'm awake at an odd hour, again. Back from the other side of the world, I am. Two hours here, three hours there; pretty soon my body will know where it is and sleep through the night. That'll be just in time to go back to work.
I'm not an aviation journalist, travel journalist or financial journalist. Sorry if I misled you.
The figures I quoted came from the Financial Times. I didn't know they were misinformed. Do you really think they are? It's a great sub. Pretty inexpensive as an online publication, and very readable. The streaming video section alone is worth the price of US$3.79 a week, online.
We're preparing for global pandemic by taking the kids to the neighbors farm, 45 minutes south of us. Camping, fishing, shooting the ood roo, stargazing at night. I hear Orion is high in the night sky.
I'll buy the book, Chuck, thanks.
Chimbu, I'm not fearful at all. Even that matter, - fear of a pandemic - has been discussed to death and I got over what's called the "adjustment reaction" to this years ago.
I am unsurprised by the reactions demonstrated on by people on this forum because they are typical and all of them have been discussed, even researched, in great depth.
I would like to think the aviation community is more intelligent then the general community.
The reason I am posting here is to encourage Ppruners to read about Influenza Pandemics , preferably at Flu Wiki. That way you won't have an "adjustment reaction" if people start getting crook.
Don't let the apparent "mildness" of this virus fool you either. The damage and deaths caused by a pandemic are caused by the volume of cases overwhelming the health system as well as secondary infections. Don't be confused by the apparent small number of cases either.
What is important is the attack rate (R0) which is a statistical measure of how many people an infected person infects. The attack rate for this thing is very high - it is highly infectious. The growth rate of cases in a pandemic is an exponential function, so it starts small and slow, but the rate accelerates week by week.The first three or four weeks of a pandemic always look unremarkable it's the second month when cases skyrocket. Having said that, the first hospitals in the U.S. are putting up triage tents in parking lots as we speak and schools are starting to close.
If you want to understand the worldwide scale of this thing go here:
: Veratect (Veratect) on Twitter
If you want to learn about pandemics, go here: Flu Wiki - Main - Flu Wiki
To put it another way, I hope this is a Y2K issue. But all research indicates that we may delay the virus entering Australia, but we won't stop it.
I am unsurprised by the reactions demonstrated on by people on this forum because they are typical and all of them have been discussed, even researched, in great depth.
I would like to think the aviation community is more intelligent then the general community.
The reason I am posting here is to encourage Ppruners to read about Influenza Pandemics , preferably at Flu Wiki. That way you won't have an "adjustment reaction" if people start getting crook.
Don't let the apparent "mildness" of this virus fool you either. The damage and deaths caused by a pandemic are caused by the volume of cases overwhelming the health system as well as secondary infections. Don't be confused by the apparent small number of cases either.
What is important is the attack rate (R0) which is a statistical measure of how many people an infected person infects. The attack rate for this thing is very high - it is highly infectious. The growth rate of cases in a pandemic is an exponential function, so it starts small and slow, but the rate accelerates week by week.The first three or four weeks of a pandemic always look unremarkable it's the second month when cases skyrocket. Having said that, the first hospitals in the U.S. are putting up triage tents in parking lots as we speak and schools are starting to close.
If you want to understand the worldwide scale of this thing go here:
: Veratect (Veratect) on Twitter
If you want to learn about pandemics, go here: Flu Wiki - Main - Flu Wiki
To put it another way, I hope this is a Y2K issue. But all research indicates that we may delay the virus entering Australia, but we won't stop it.
Last edited by Sunfish; 1st May 2009 at 18:24.
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The krudd government over states everything - climate change - the recession - swine 'flu etc just to cover their @rses because they don't really know. Last year in Oz over 2,000 people died of "normal" 'flu. The QLD government has even suggested stockpiling food/water and bunkering down! Less than 10% of the population is going to be unemployed due to the recession - let me know when we get to 50% then I'll start to worry. A couple of months ago we were all going to be eaten by a plague of sharks - then it was rampaging mobs of salties! Now the collective state governments have discovered that bikies are the next great threat. Give me a break!!
GAGS
E86
PS Who remembers the Y2K phenomena - that was going to send us back to the stone age - if you listened to the "experts"!?
GAGS
E86
PS Who remembers the Y2K phenomena - that was going to send us back to the stone age - if you listened to the "experts"!?
Grandpa Aerotart
I wasn't inferring you were afraid Sunfish merely that The Science Of Fear was a worthwhile read. It explains really well how Govts, NGOs, Corporations etc use fear constantly and why it works with the majority of the population
I underestimated the Influenza deaths in the US/annum. It is 36000 and over 200,000 worldwide...every year. Big numbers eh?
This is what NGOs and the Media do...they give you the raw number without any context. They will also provide lots of images..the more emotive the better...people wearing masks, little children laying helplessly in hospitals, harried medical staff. And they draw completely irresponsible and inaccurate
comparisons with prior events like the 1918 Pandemic.
200000 worldwide deaths/annum equates to 0.03% of the world population. Doesn't sound so scary now does it?
SARs killed 800 worldwide but mostly in China?
That equates to .000008% just assuming all deaths were in China...the number if you include the world population wont even fit on my calculator.
If we assume for the sake of argument that 'Swine Flu' infects says 3000 people in Mexico that would be .0027% of the Mexican population of circa 110,000 000.
Thus far we are talking 100s of suspected cases not 1000s and 10s of deaths not 100s.
So is all the angst and money wasted on this 'pandemic' worth it?
Doesn't sound like to me.
1000s more people are dying daily from heart attacks, car accidents, normal influenza, diabetes, malaria and a dozen other things...but they dont resonate with the media....too hard to make a scary headline out of Diabetes
The reason comparisons in the media to the 1918 pandemic are irresponsible and unreasonable is that in 1918 they didn't even have the most basic knowledge of hygiene nor even the most basic drugs. So called 'experts' who get their face on TV and suggest 'it is just a matter of time before another 1918 size pandemic hits the planet' are being disingenuous to say the least.
4PW glad to see you back flying
I underestimated the Influenza deaths in the US/annum. It is 36000 and over 200,000 worldwide...every year. Big numbers eh?
This is what NGOs and the Media do...they give you the raw number without any context. They will also provide lots of images..the more emotive the better...people wearing masks, little children laying helplessly in hospitals, harried medical staff. And they draw completely irresponsible and inaccurate
comparisons with prior events like the 1918 Pandemic.
200000 worldwide deaths/annum equates to 0.03% of the world population. Doesn't sound so scary now does it?
SARs killed 800 worldwide but mostly in China?
That equates to .000008% just assuming all deaths were in China...the number if you include the world population wont even fit on my calculator.
If we assume for the sake of argument that 'Swine Flu' infects says 3000 people in Mexico that would be .0027% of the Mexican population of circa 110,000 000.
Thus far we are talking 100s of suspected cases not 1000s and 10s of deaths not 100s.
So is all the angst and money wasted on this 'pandemic' worth it?
Doesn't sound like to me.
1000s more people are dying daily from heart attacks, car accidents, normal influenza, diabetes, malaria and a dozen other things...but they dont resonate with the media....too hard to make a scary headline out of Diabetes
The reason comparisons in the media to the 1918 pandemic are irresponsible and unreasonable is that in 1918 they didn't even have the most basic knowledge of hygiene nor even the most basic drugs. So called 'experts' who get their face on TV and suggest 'it is just a matter of time before another 1918 size pandemic hits the planet' are being disingenuous to say the least.
4PW glad to see you back flying
Chimbu, I'm afraid I have to tell you that it's not the Governments and NGO's that are driving this matter, quite the reverse. They are doing everything in their power to play down the risk.
Ferchrissake read Flu Wiki - Main - Flu Wiki and then come back and talk.
Governments everywhere are sending you a message that is about Government surviving a pandemic, not about you surviving a pandemic. This is not tinfoil hat stuff. If there is a bad pandemic, which is not yet sure, then you and your family are in deep ***** on any number of levels, starting with the fact that iof you have any relatives with medical conditions they are going to have difficulty getting treatment, and if you yourself get the flu, and you develop complications (ie secondary infections) then it's Syonara mate.
Ferchrissake read Flu Wiki - Main - Flu Wiki and then come back and talk.
Ferchrissake read Flu Wiki - Main - Flu Wiki and then come back and talk.
Governments everywhere are sending you a message that is about Government surviving a pandemic, not about you surviving a pandemic. This is not tinfoil hat stuff. If there is a bad pandemic, which is not yet sure, then you and your family are in deep ***** on any number of levels, starting with the fact that iof you have any relatives with medical conditions they are going to have difficulty getting treatment, and if you yourself get the flu, and you develop complications (ie secondary infections) then it's Syonara mate.
Ferchrissake read Flu Wiki - Main - Flu Wiki and then come back and talk.
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Why don't we all start eating just cabbage, surely there has never been cabbage flu? I am not going anywhere until I have worked my way thru my rough red collection and my viagra tablets, then and only then am I prepared to do my last circuit.
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Ferchrissake read Flu Wiki - Main - Flu Wiki and then come back and talk.
My old man always told me "beware of half-truths...you may have the wrong half "
And that's the biggest problem with Wikipedia and government propoganda, you only get half....usually only the bit they want you to see or hear that distracts us from asking the hard questions.
So far the stats are making this a pretty big yawn.
Grandpa Aerotart
Chimbu, I'm afraid I have to tell you that it's not the Governments and NGO's that are driving this matter, quite the reverse. They are doing everything in their power to play down the risk.
Ya think?
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So who knows?
Does anyone here think the WHO is wrong to raise the Pandemic Alert Level to 6? It means Pandemic Imminent.
This may be a starting point so that we are all debating (if there is any debate) from a poistion of knowledge, not guesswork. WHO | Swine influenza
Do you understand what a pandemic is? What causes it? What the potential outcomes are? What you should or should not do? perhaps this may help. An interview with Dr Michael Osterholm. CurEvents.com - A Global Current Events Discussion Forum - Minnesota Monthly - Osterholm on the Perils and Politics of Avian Flu
This a link from 11JAN06. CurEvents.com - A Global Current Events Discussion Forum - Snowy Owl-Interviews With the Experts It is a series of interviews with some of the worlds leading lighhts on Influenza A, virology, epidemiology etc. They were interviewed at a time when there was serious concern about H5N1 evolving into a pandemic but the information they provide is still germane today.
The world authorities are giving their collective considered opinion. They say a pandemic is imminent. I am not one to disregard the experts in any field. Make up your own minds of course but instead of wild conjecture and personal attacks perhaps we should all focus on seeking the truth.
For the professional Pilots amongst us this is just another issue that needs a bit of applied CRM .. it's about what's right .. not who's right and then make good decisions.
Cheers,
Brad
This may be a starting point so that we are all debating (if there is any debate) from a poistion of knowledge, not guesswork. WHO | Swine influenza
Do you understand what a pandemic is? What causes it? What the potential outcomes are? What you should or should not do? perhaps this may help. An interview with Dr Michael Osterholm. CurEvents.com - A Global Current Events Discussion Forum - Minnesota Monthly - Osterholm on the Perils and Politics of Avian Flu
This a link from 11JAN06. CurEvents.com - A Global Current Events Discussion Forum - Snowy Owl-Interviews With the Experts It is a series of interviews with some of the worlds leading lighhts on Influenza A, virology, epidemiology etc. They were interviewed at a time when there was serious concern about H5N1 evolving into a pandemic but the information they provide is still germane today.
The world authorities are giving their collective considered opinion. They say a pandemic is imminent. I am not one to disregard the experts in any field. Make up your own minds of course but instead of wild conjecture and personal attacks perhaps we should all focus on seeking the truth.
For the professional Pilots amongst us this is just another issue that needs a bit of applied CRM .. it's about what's right .. not who's right and then make good decisions.
Cheers,
Brad
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Casa Bans All Staff Travel Due To A(H1N1)
Out for tea in Brisbane on Saturday night I found out that the new CEO of the Civil Aviation Safety Authority, Australia has placed a ban on staff travel due to the influenza oubreak.
The CASA CEO apparently stated in an e-mail to all staff on Friday 1st of May that all travel is banned for OHS reasons as the CEO is exercising his "Duty of Care".
If it is so dangerous to travel then he also has a duty of care to all Australians. Doesn't he?
So why is CASA at odds with the Minister for Health and the World Health Organisation? The CEO is completely out of step with the WHO's information released on the same day. Interesting that this WHO information wasn't given any airing in the media.
CASA's reputation is bound to take a severe pasting over this given that the CEO has now joined the media hype, panic and the great uninformed.
If it is truly dangerous to travel then the CEO of CASA has a duty of care to all the airlines, flight crew, cabin crew, check-in staff and the public and he should be getting the entire industry to shut down.
I wonder if the Minister for Transport and Minister for Health will back up the CASA CEO for his courageous decision?
Maybe I can use it as an excuse with my airline and say that I can't work this week because even the CEO of CASA says its too dangerous to travel?
WHO update 1 May 2009 shown below.
You decide.
John.
No rationale for travel restrictions
1 May 2009 -- </SPAN>WHO is not recommending travel restrictions related to the outbreak of the influenza A(H1N1) virus. Today, international travel moves rapidly, with large numbers of individuals visiting various parts of the world. Limiting travel and imposing travel restrictions would have very little effect on stopping the virus from spreading, but would be highly disruptive to the global community.
Influenza A(H1N1) has already been confirmed in many parts of the world. The focus now is on minimizing the impact of the virus through the rapid identification of cases and providing patients with appropriate medical care, rather than on stopping its spread internationally. Furthermore, although identifying the signs and symptoms of influenza in travellers can be an effective monitoring technique, it is not effective in reducing the spread of influenza as the virus can be transmitted from person to person before the onset of symptoms. Scientific research based on mathematical modelling indicates that restricting travel will be of limited or no benefit in stopping the spread of disease. Historical records of previous influenza pandemics, as well as experience with SARS, have validated this point.
Travellers can protect themselves and others by following simple recommendations related to travel aimed at preventing the spread of infection. Individuals who are ill should delay travel plans and returning travellers who fall ill should seek appropriate medical care. These recommendations are prudent measures which can limit the spread of many communicable diseases and not only influenza A(H1N1).
The CASA CEO apparently stated in an e-mail to all staff on Friday 1st of May that all travel is banned for OHS reasons as the CEO is exercising his "Duty of Care".
If it is so dangerous to travel then he also has a duty of care to all Australians. Doesn't he?
So why is CASA at odds with the Minister for Health and the World Health Organisation? The CEO is completely out of step with the WHO's information released on the same day. Interesting that this WHO information wasn't given any airing in the media.
CASA's reputation is bound to take a severe pasting over this given that the CEO has now joined the media hype, panic and the great uninformed.
If it is truly dangerous to travel then the CEO of CASA has a duty of care to all the airlines, flight crew, cabin crew, check-in staff and the public and he should be getting the entire industry to shut down.
I wonder if the Minister for Transport and Minister for Health will back up the CASA CEO for his courageous decision?
Maybe I can use it as an excuse with my airline and say that I can't work this week because even the CEO of CASA says its too dangerous to travel?
WHO update 1 May 2009 shown below.
You decide.
John.
No rationale for travel restrictions
1 May 2009 -- </SPAN>WHO is not recommending travel restrictions related to the outbreak of the influenza A(H1N1) virus. Today, international travel moves rapidly, with large numbers of individuals visiting various parts of the world. Limiting travel and imposing travel restrictions would have very little effect on stopping the virus from spreading, but would be highly disruptive to the global community.
Influenza A(H1N1) has already been confirmed in many parts of the world. The focus now is on minimizing the impact of the virus through the rapid identification of cases and providing patients with appropriate medical care, rather than on stopping its spread internationally. Furthermore, although identifying the signs and symptoms of influenza in travellers can be an effective monitoring technique, it is not effective in reducing the spread of influenza as the virus can be transmitted from person to person before the onset of symptoms. Scientific research based on mathematical modelling indicates that restricting travel will be of limited or no benefit in stopping the spread of disease. Historical records of previous influenza pandemics, as well as experience with SARS, have validated this point.
Travellers can protect themselves and others by following simple recommendations related to travel aimed at preventing the spread of infection. Individuals who are ill should delay travel plans and returning travellers who fall ill should seek appropriate medical care. These recommendations are prudent measures which can limit the spread of many communicable diseases and not only influenza A(H1N1).
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This is getting very boaring, for us in Australia normal a hygiene regime will keep the average person safe as you can possibly be without living in a bubble - at the moment you have more chance of dieing from being run over by a bus.
Let the talking heads and ill-informed pollies run around like chooks with their head chopped off. The rest of us should just take our normal precautions against colds/flu that we take at this time of year and get on with our lives.
Too many people are crying "WOLF"
//Satire On//
Sow on that note I'll retire to by hermetically sealed bunker and activate the atmospheric recycler with .05 micron filters with oxygen regeneration and won't come out until there is only myself and half a dozen nubile young beautiful ladies left alive, then I'll go about repopulating this green and verdant planet.
//Satire Off//
Let the talking heads and ill-informed pollies run around like chooks with their head chopped off. The rest of us should just take our normal precautions against colds/flu that we take at this time of year and get on with our lives.
Too many people are crying "WOLF"
//Satire On//
Sow on that note I'll retire to by hermetically sealed bunker and activate the atmospheric recycler with .05 micron filters with oxygen regeneration and won't come out until there is only myself and half a dozen nubile young beautiful ladies left alive, then I'll go about repopulating this green and verdant planet.
//Satire Off//
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damned if you do and if you dont
I think govts WHO and CDC et al are right to be very cautious.It looks as if mexico have talked it up too much or other factors have contributed to the deaths there.
If they did little or nothing AND it did explode we'd be a tad peeved yes?
Its their job to warn inform prevent immunise etc.I'd rather a warning for something that in the end is contained than negligence and avoidable deaths.
The tabloid press and low brow TV shows are having a field day.So much tripe being reported.
With the flu pandemic in / around 1918 millions died.Sure it was a low % of those who actually contracted the disease but caution is warranted.Too many people already die too soon from preventable diseases.
One thing I did note from the 1918 outbreak reports was that in the early days it was not that serious but a second wave of flu ( possibly a mutation of the 1st virus? ) caused the real damage.
If they did little or nothing AND it did explode we'd be a tad peeved yes?
Its their job to warn inform prevent immunise etc.I'd rather a warning for something that in the end is contained than negligence and avoidable deaths.
The tabloid press and low brow TV shows are having a field day.So much tripe being reported.
With the flu pandemic in / around 1918 millions died.Sure it was a low % of those who actually contracted the disease but caution is warranted.Too many people already die too soon from preventable diseases.
One thing I did note from the 1918 outbreak reports was that in the early days it was not that serious but a second wave of flu ( possibly a mutation of the 1st virus? ) caused the real damage.
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That amplclamp is exactly what is causing the concern about H1N1/2009 amongst the worlds experts.
A pandemic strain must meet three criteria:
1. A new virus must emerge first. This normally occurs due to antigenic drift or recombination in a host species (often swine or aquatic avians). H1N1/2009 is a whole new critter.
2. It must be novel to humans and able to cause disease therein = we have no immunity which also normally infers a high CFR (Case Fatality Rate). This is a big difference to seasonal Flu A strains. In a pandemic not just a couple of hundred thusand die. The numbers are waaaay higher for a couple of reasons!
3. It must be easily and sustainably spread between humans = have an affinity for the cells in the upper respiratory tract for aerosol infection (this is why H5N1 is not a pandemic .. it only reproduces well in humans deep in the lungs so it is hard to get it there) or able to survive for lengthy periods on surfaces contacted by multiple persons and then able to infect them. Flu A is already good at this. It is also why the main focus of pandemic prevention is on personal hygiene, hand washing, cough etiquette, learning not to touch your face etc.
An Influenza A pandemic normally occurs over an extended period and occurs in waves, each succeeding wave having a greater impact (CFR) than the last. It isn't the death toll that is the real problem for us. It is the load it places on our society in terms of already overstretched health care, supply lines, utilities etc. We are better off in care and science depth than 1918 but have nowhere near the resources to deal with the number that may fall ill in a pandemic. Today we live in a 'just in time' society. Disrupt the supply chains even a little and see what happens.
This is why the experts are worried. H1N1 has met the three criteria in spades. It will be some time before we really know if it will go pandemic or not and it will be too late to get ready once teh first wave really gets going. That is why you are being warned now. It is your choice to take it or leave it.
Cheers,
Brad
A pandemic strain must meet three criteria:
1. A new virus must emerge first. This normally occurs due to antigenic drift or recombination in a host species (often swine or aquatic avians). H1N1/2009 is a whole new critter.
2. It must be novel to humans and able to cause disease therein = we have no immunity which also normally infers a high CFR (Case Fatality Rate). This is a big difference to seasonal Flu A strains. In a pandemic not just a couple of hundred thusand die. The numbers are waaaay higher for a couple of reasons!
3. It must be easily and sustainably spread between humans = have an affinity for the cells in the upper respiratory tract for aerosol infection (this is why H5N1 is not a pandemic .. it only reproduces well in humans deep in the lungs so it is hard to get it there) or able to survive for lengthy periods on surfaces contacted by multiple persons and then able to infect them. Flu A is already good at this. It is also why the main focus of pandemic prevention is on personal hygiene, hand washing, cough etiquette, learning not to touch your face etc.
An Influenza A pandemic normally occurs over an extended period and occurs in waves, each succeeding wave having a greater impact (CFR) than the last. It isn't the death toll that is the real problem for us. It is the load it places on our society in terms of already overstretched health care, supply lines, utilities etc. We are better off in care and science depth than 1918 but have nowhere near the resources to deal with the number that may fall ill in a pandemic. Today we live in a 'just in time' society. Disrupt the supply chains even a little and see what happens.
This is why the experts are worried. H1N1 has met the three criteria in spades. It will be some time before we really know if it will go pandemic or not and it will be too late to get ready once teh first wave really gets going. That is why you are being warned now. It is your choice to take it or leave it.
Cheers,
Brad
