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Swine flu has 'pandemic potential'

By Adriana Barrera and Catherine Bremer in Mexico City, Mexico with wires

Reuters

April 26, 2009 01:34pm

* WHO warns of flu 'pandemic'
* Possible swine flu case in London
* Checks set up at Asian airports

A NEW flu virus that has killed up to 81 people in Mexico could start a global epidemic, the World Health Organization warned on Saturday as the disease spread further in the United States.

Australia's health protection officials, including chief medical officer Jim Bishop, are today holding talks on how to guard the nation from the pig flu outbreak in Mexico and the US.

The Department of Health and Ageing is liaising with the WHO, the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention and other public health experts, a spokeswoman for the department says.

"Anyone that has returned from Mexico with influenza-like symptoms since March this year should seek advice from their general practitioner or public health unit," she said.

Australia's airports were not officially on alert but were aware of the situation, she said.

Mexico's crowded capital of 20 million people, where most of the victims have died, hunkered down in fear of the swine flu and the government said it would isolate sick people if necessary.
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It said the flu had probably killed 81 people, raising the likely death toll from 68, and that more than 1300 people were believed to have been infected.

All schools in and around the sprawling capital and the central state of San Luis Potosi were ordered closed until May 6 and Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova called for all bars, clubs, stadiums, movie theaters, churches and other religious centers to be shut to limit further infections.

While all of the deaths so far have been in Mexico, the flu is spreading in the United States.

Eleven cases have been confirmed in California, Kansas and Texas, and eight schoolchildren in New York City caught a type A influenza virus that was likely to be the swine flu, health officials said on Saturday.

The World Health Organisation declared the outbreaks a "public health event of international concern" and said they could cause a pandemic - a global epidemic of serious disease.

The last flu pandemic was in 1968 when "Hong Kong" flu killed about 1 million people globally.

A new pandemic would deal a major blow to a world economy already knocked into its worst recession in decades by the crisis in financial markets.

In Mexico City, parents cancelled children's parties, bars were closed and residents stocked up on DVDs as people stayed home for the weekend to avoid contamination by a virus that has never been seen before.

"I think it's worse than they're telling us," said 35-year-old Lidia Diaz, sniffling and wearing a surgical mask as she headed to a clinic in the capital.

Mexican President Felipe Calderon issued an emergency decree giving the government special powers to run tests on sick people and order them to be isolated.

WHO Director-General Dr. Margaret Chan urged all countries to boost their surveillance for any unusual outbreaks of influenza-like illness and severe pneumonia.

"It has pandemic potential because it is infecting people," Dr Chan said in Geneva. "However, we cannot say on the basis of currently available laboratory, epidemiological and clinical evidence whether or not it will indeed cause a pandemic."

"The most worrying fact is that it appears to transmit from human to human," said Thomas Abraham, a spokesman for the WHO.

These features, along with the fact that unusually young healthy adults have fallen victim, and not the very old or very young, have given rise to fears of an epidemic or even a pandemic.

A British Airways cabin crew member was taken to a London hospital as a precaution after developing flu-like symptoms on a flight from Mexico City. It was the first such reported precautionary measure in Britain.

Hong Kong, Japan Checks

As far away as Hong Kong and Japan, health officials stepped up checks of travellers with flu-like symptoms. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it was actively looking for new infections.

"We are worried and because we are worried we are acting aggressively on a number of fronts," the CDC's Dr. Anne Schuchat said. "The situation is serious."

In Mexico, most of the dead were aged 25 to 45, a worrying sign because a hallmark of past pandemics has been high fatalities among healthy young adults.

The new flu strain - a mixture of swine, human and avian flu viruses - is still poorly understood.

A significant worsening of the outbreak could hit tourism and consumer spending in Mexico, already weakened by the global economic crisis and an army-led war on drug cartels.

No countries or global bodies have issued travel bans to Mexico but some countries alerted travellers to check websites for information on the flu outbreak.

The WHO says the virus from 12 of the Mexican patients is genetically the same as a new strain of swine flu, designated H1N1, seen in the people in California and Texas, who have recovered.

With AAP.

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I'm a specialist doctor in respiratory diseases and intensive care at the Mexican National Institute of Health. There is a severe emergency over the swine flu here. More and more patients are being admitted to the intensive care unit. Despite the heroic efforts of all staff (doctors, nurses, specialists, etc) patients continue to inevitably die. The truth is that anti-viral treatments and vaccines are not expected to have any effect, even at high doses. It is a great fear among the staff. The infection risk is very high among the doctors and health staff.

There is a sense of chaos in the other hospitals and we do not know what to do. Staff are starting to leave and many are opting to retire or apply for holidays. The truth is that mortality is even higher than what is being reported by the authorities, at least in the hospital where I work it. It is killing three to four patients daily, and it has been going on for more than three weeks. It is a shame and there is great fear here. Increasingly younger patients aged 20 to 30 years are dying before our helpless eyes and there is great sadness among health professionals here.
Antonio Chavez, Mexico City [/b]

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The end is nigh! The end is nigh!! The sky is falling!! We're all doomed I tell you!

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