Flybe-V1

[BA318]

It varies. My experience was paying nearly £200 to fly on a tired Q400 to NQY and still need to add bags and snacks. And at the end Social media was full of people who had flown out with no problem and then another airport said their bag was too big and charged them £50.

The biggest problem will be when someone says “I’m thinking of booking Flybe” and then the other person says “didn’t they go bust?” And they will google Flybe bankrupt or whatever and get scared of booking with them.

Not insurmountable but an extra expense. Hopefully they have deep pockets. If they do there has probably not been a better time to launch with airports desperate for pax.

[UlsterFly]

I flew with Flybe many times, almost weekly and certainly didn’t hold them with high regard. You’d watch them land early and yet still they’d manage to take off late. Did they not base their excellent time keeping stats on certain routes on certain days of the week rather than all flights? I’ve had countless delays, diversions and cancellations meaning an unscheduled night away from home with little or no assistance from their ground handlers. The crew were more often than not knackered from covering flights they weren’t scheduled to be on. The aircraft were often knackered too and dirty! They weren’t cheap either, £300 + fares were the norm. The “New” Flybe would need to be a hell of a lot different from the old one to get me booking anything any time soon.

[SWBKCB]

If they do there has probably not been a better time to launch with airports desperate for pax.

How many former routes are left unserved? Might influence how keenly they are welcomed back.

[Jamie2009]

The oversize bag saga was a nightmare and inconsistency between airports, flights from the same airport or even passengers in the same aircraft was shocking. At that time Flybe was loosing lots of cash and needed to make cash anyway it could to avoid bankruptcy and hold for the Connect deal - not it’s finest moment but it’s history. The connect lot were turning things around but it cost a fortune. I think when it became connects baby COW and team had spent 80 mil of the connect cash just staying afloat…. and then COVID struck.

COW - she inherited a pile of poo and can’t be blamed for its demise in my view - they were desperate times. There was a long history of bad management decisions and at the end of the day she brokered the deal with connect which kept it flying and staff employed. It’s too simplistic to just say she’s crap.

As for its reputation I didn’t think most people will care, right price and right time and most people will book. I think there’ll be some good deals coming up - well good for the customer. It’s going to be interesting………

[BA318]

Thats the problem though isn’t it. Good price for the customer isn’t always great for the carrier. EasyJet selling UK-Jersey flights for £30 one way will be a hard fight.

[Atlantic Explorer]

UlsterFly

Yes, very similar to my own experience and that of many of my friends. Why on earth they chose to relaunch using the old brand name is beyond me and frankly baffling.

[GayFriendly]

Not sure domestically what's left observed, I think most routes are covered?

Internationally certainly from BHX there are quite a few left un-served: Berlin, Stuttgart, Milan, Lyon, Knock, Toulouse and Nantes plus summer only to Bordeaux, Avignon and Biarritz.

Doubt some of these will ever return but surprised no one has looked at Berlin and Milan.

I think the new Flybe, if it indeed ever takes off, will have a tough job in terms of network. Just 2 or 3 key bases might work, one of their many mistakes was so many costly bases and the amount of HOTAC, taxis, hire cars and positioning flights needed to crew the shortfall of crew that seemed to affect every base. Having so many bases, they were trying to be jack of all trades but master of none.

[CabinCrewe]

They presumably have.
A ‘new start’ on any of those routes (which presumably were not huge money makers before) is a recipe for disaster.

[Albert Hall]

Milan was historically one of the best performers in the network until LCC competition (I think from Ryanair) came along. Before Flybe it was one of the strongest for Birmingham European and Maersk. It should do well again provided it has no LCC rival, as should Stuttgart.

[BA318]

Given they will apparently be using the Q400 I can’t see that being an enjoyable flight to Milan. Plus Ryanair is well known for starting a fight just look at Luton-Copenhagen which went crazy a few years back just because EasyJet launched it.

[Atlantic Explorer]

Nope, done it before and it was a bloody nightmare. Ploughing through the Alps at 26,000ft getting bounced around by the summer cbs was really not pleasant. And it took an age!

[ATNotts]

Similarly Berlin, Hamburg and Hannover as well as Lyon and Toulouse.

EZY could step in and nick the Berlin leisure market, and has been mentioned Milan is a long way on a Dash 8 - I too have endured it!

[Albert Hall]

Having seen a lot of their historic data, BHX-Stuttgart was the highest yield route in the Flybe network for a long time. Berlin and Hamburg were never anywhere near as strong at any time. Hannover did well for a while but I guess the conference and trade fair market will be one of the slowest to recover.

Lyon was OK, BHX-Toulouse wasn’t really worth doing.

[cavokblues]

I had to do Southampton - Alicante on the Dash a few years back. Wasn't the most enjoyable but then neither is a flight to Spain on some other low cost carriers. Does the average punter care what the aircraft is? As long as the price is competitive and the product strong it shouldn't matter too much.

[inOban]

I'm surprised no-one has pointed out that a major unnerved traffic flow is from EDI/GLA to LCY. There used to be several red-eye flights south by both flybe and BACF, but the latter have closed their Scottish base; tomorrow the first flight southbound from Edinburgh will get you to the City about lunchtime. I'm sure that the market will never recover to the same size, but I would have thought there was enough to make the route viable.
Admittedly when Crossrail finally opens the journey from LHR will be much quicker than now but still..

[Downwind_Left]

Those early morning Cityflyer GLA-LCY flights were never normally operated by the EDI base, and even the EDI-LCY earlies were sometimes operated with LCY crews. They are only temporarily not operating due to reduced demand, back in the schedules from 6th September. Earliest southbounds from that date as follows;

0625 departure EDI-LCY
0630 departure GLA-LCY
0645 departure BHD-LCY

[inOban]

So all the crews will be night-stopping?

[cavokblues]

Always assume Cityflyer crews are nightstopping........! ;)

[G-UNYT]

A great shame that "taking the much-loved flybe brand into a new era" involved removing it from the South West, another hammer blow for the local economy.

This new venture seems a very confused one to move it to another part of the country to supposedly start afresh, but then recycle pretty much everything from the former company in terms of operation and brand.

Either they want a clean slate or they don't, but it would have meant a great deal to the many folks in the old head office who were devastated to lose their jobs last year on account of the deficiencies of senior management to have a chance to rebuild the company they loved.

[southamptonavgeek]

G-CLXC appears to be in for maintenance with Exeter Aerospace. May be a sign that it is being readied for operations?

[TartinTon]

G-UNYT

I don't see it that way at all. EXT was never a major base for Flybe whereas BHX was. I would have thought the only candidates for a "new" Flybe relaunch base were SOU or BHX given that these were their busiest hubs before. Makes a lot more sense to me.

[fjencl]

southamptonavgeek

How many aircraft have they got on the fleet now ?

[brian_dromey]

The relative speed and apparent success with which BA Cityflyer launched sun routes with their E190s would suggests there is a decent unserved market at SOU, or at least one where FR, U2 and W9 cannot compete directly due to the infrastructure.

BHX seems like a good guess too, that airport has always been under represented given the size of the city and catchment. A double-edge sword no doubt, with leakage to London relatively high.

[055166k]

cavokblues

Never flew longer trips than 1hr30m, mainly SOU-DUS about once a month. Dash every time for me.. 2 seats abreast and the leg room is ample for us, and it doesn't take half an hour to get on/off. Bigger is not better and certainly not sardine claustrophobic A319s (I've been using Eurowings from Nightmare City... Beg your pardon.. Heathrow!) Come back soon.. All my extended family miss you.

[southamptonavgeek]

fjencl

Still just the one from what I know.

[AirUK]

“As long as the price is competitive and the product strong it shouldn't matter too much.”

Neither of which were what you got with the old Fly[may]be, despite calling themselves ‘the UK’s No. 1 regional low fares airline’…! Some nice crew, but an extremely poorly-managed company with terrible branding, on-board product and extortionate fares… enough to put anyone off unless their only experience had been on one of the odd aircraft that wasn’t delayed/cancelled due technical problems/‘operational reasons’ (lack of crew) AND they managed to get a ‘low’ fare (compared to usual, anyway!) in one of their early release seat sales… Oh yes, then also not being told once on-board that your flight to Malaga will now be going via Alicante first also helps… myself/friends/family had flown with them many times, heard it all and had enough. We ended up preferring to drive further and fly with a proper airline instead.

“0625 departure EDI-LCY

0630 departure GLA-LCY

0645 departure BHD-LCY”

Sorry to be pedantic, but none if these are ‘red eyes’ - a red eye is an overnight flight. See: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red-eye_flight

[inOban]

Is there a technical term for a business flight which requires the passenger to be up by 04.00 so that they can be in an office by 09.00?

[SWBKCB]

Don't know about technical, but I've used a few unprintable one's....

[davidjohnson6]

Stupid o'clock

[kar42]

Regardless of the Wikipedia definition, if you live on an island e.g. Guernsey, Red-Eye is what you call the first flight out.

[AirUK]

In the trade it’s called an ‘early’, whether you’re in the Channel Islands or not.

[Alteagod]

Or first wave

[Whispering Giant]

Flybe have now started to recruit TRE’s, TRI’s, GTO’s CRMT’s and Cabin Crew trainers. All ads are on LinkerdIn.
so I think those doubting and claiming that the New Flybe will ever launch will soon start to having to eat humble pie…

[Wycombe]

Without stating the obvious, they're going to need revenue input from more than 1 aircraft to support that lot!

[ATNotts]

It is entirely possible that the airline has already agreed acquisition of aircraft from lessors; that people outside of Flybe2 aren't aware would not be surprising.

[055166k]

Saw G-ECOK at Dusseldorf last week in Sky Alps colours. A Sky Alps article in May suggested Chorus Aviation Capital had 82 Dash 8's on its books.

[ATNotts]

Plenty of choice then!

[SWBKCB]

Must be a money-maker, then?

[Jamie2009]

Bases are BHX, SOU, BHD and MAN on the application form…..

[ATNotts]

Hardly all the rage (as Beatie once said in a BT commercial)!

[ATNotts]

I am guessing that there's been some cutting and pasting from application form templates used by the "old" Flybe - if the new enterprise is proposing a scattergun approach with 4 bases from the get-go then I'm afraid they're probably repeating the same mistakes as their predecessors.

[willy wombat]

Indeed. Flybe never subscribed to the KISS principle.

[Alteagod]

7 aircraft apperantly for BHD.

[fjencl]

Any news on how many for BHX, MAN, SOU

[southamptonavgeek]

Alteagod

Could I ask where you heard this please?

[Flightrider]

I think we’re into wild rumour territory here. Best to wait and see.

[cavokblues]

No idea how true all these rumours are.

But I'm sceptical that the current post Covid market is big enough for a new Flybe and Loganair's current route network.

[willy wombat]

I heard 10 for SOU, one to operate and nine to cover for AOG etc

[Jamie2009]

I think those aircraft numbers for bases are wildly optimistic given the location of the DASH sims and half the old DASH fleet have moved to new operators.

[ATNotts]

There is more than a smidgen of cynicism in WW's post!

[southamptonavgeek]

According to Skyliner G-CLXC is due into Keflavik. Looks like Flybe could be disposing of their only aircraft?

[RogueOne]

I thought it was common knowledge, but G-CLXC (according to G-INFO) was "chartered" and not Flybe owned. Most likely for AOC or to satisfy other license approval requirements. With a slim possibility it could be used for currency for certain post-holders, albeit unlikely.

With the relaunch of Flybe v.2 imminent, I would suspect favourable leasing deals have been struck with lessors that have Q400s already in Flybe purple colours sat on the ground. That'll certainly save a bit of money than getting new airframes or repainting others. Plus v2 gets to pick which are the newest, best maintained airframes with the least amount of cycles until next checks..

[Jamie2009]

My guess is the former mortgaged DASHs that were reposted by the German bank and are Saarnbrucken now owned by the Irish lease company.

[Buster the Bear]

Thyme Opco DH8D G-CLXC (1404) flew Keflavik to St John’s yesterday.

Appears to be heading the wrong way.

[allan1987]

Looks to be be the 20 Q400 planes will start be being delivered to Flybe from October

https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/aergo-closes-on-new-customers-for-former-flybe-q400s/145212.article
Irish lessor Aergo Capital believes strengthening demand for domestic and regional aviation is driving customer interest in a package of 20 De Havilland Canada Dash 8-400s it acquired earlier this year.

Aergo took ownership of the former Flybe twin-turboprops in July, registering them to its special purpose vehicle, Wellington Leasing No 33, according to UK Civil Aviation Authority data.

G-PRPA is one of 20 Q400s acquired by Aergo Capital

But the lessor is already close to securing customers for all 20 aircraft. “Aergo Capital acquired 20 ex-FlyBe Q400s earlier this year and have found very strong demand for these aircraft across four continents.

“We have contracted, executed letters of intent or are in advanced negotiations for all 20 aircraft,” it says.

First deliveries are due in October, running through 2022, with pre-delivery maintenance already under way, says Aergo.

“We are now enjoying growing demand across our turboprop fleet which is driving strengthening lease rates and therefore underlying aircraft values.

“This is a reflection of demand for high-quality domestic and close regional flying in many markets globally, and especially within emerging markets, at a time when medium- and especially long-haul travel remains deeply subdued.”

[SKOJB]

Possibly although I doubt all 20 will be delivered to new Flybe, not sure if any indications have been given on total numbers for the new start up!

[Expressflight]

I can see nothing in that article which makes it particularly likely that Flybe will be the recipient of any of those 20 aircraft, let alone the whole fleet. Indeed, it intimates that the users will be a number of different operators.

[oldart]

To Flybe or not to Flybe, that's the question. How many Q400's?

[AirUK]

Flymaybe Mk.II…

[Blackfriar]

cavokblues

In my experience, yes. BA 1-11s we’re slagged off by passengers in the 80s as was anything then with a G-Axxx registration. One horrified Gatwick passenger on a Jersey flight took one look at the aircraft from the terminal and described the HS-748 as a converted World War Two bomber.

[ATNotts]

I disagree, more than ever these days people are concerned with price first, and reliability second. For many it is 'a plane'.

Despite the 'Flymaybee' jibes, neither me, and more so MrsATN who used them more frequently had serious punctuality issues

[BA318]

If you search Flybe Delay on Twitter there are lots of comments from when they were operating. Even crew saying about delays… the name stuck for a reason.

“even the delays”
https://twitter.com/ZoeBurnettt/status/1367936379376787457?s=20

It varies on whether people chose a flight based on a plane. If someone flies the route more than once on two competitors they are likely to compare them. I know plenty of people who would then say I’m sticking with BA or Easyjet rather than the little thing Flybe took me on. Irrational yes but it happens.

[ollie135]

Surely that's just an ex crew member being sentimental. I wasn't at Flybe all that long but on the 140 odd flights I operated I can only think of a couple which were significantly delayed or cancelled, barely 2 or 3 percent. I'm sure that other parts of the network were worse but certainly it was not a sea of delays and cancellations. We shall see what happens...

[c52]

Of the various airliners I've flown on, I found both the prop aircraft (Jetstream, Do 328) to be significantly unpleasant. I'm sure the Dash 8 is equally best avoided. Among the jets, the back row on an F-70 was horrible, being noisy and almost windowless.

[ZULUBOY]

BA318

In my circle of friends and family nobody would have a clue (or be interested in) what plane they were flying on when booking a flight or holiday

[Alteagod]

Balkan Holidays to Bulgaria in the 80s kinds proves the theory price over plane tbh. Il18 and TU154s but a very cheap holiday.

[Jamie2009]

I’d be surprised if you have a choice of competitors who don’t fly turboprops on a lot of the routes and certainly won’t be competing on BA routes. Easy will deploy the fleet to more profitable routes from the current emergency cash generating domestic routes which is ironically further damaging the regional airlines who will be left to compete with Flybe.
Average flight time was 58 mins for Flybe, not long to be sat on a TP…. Price and schedule are key and given they’re going to be debt free prices should be low.

I take it the slot grab conversation is over.

[Jamie2009]

Expressflight

They’re painted Flybe and the airline is not being rebranded, that we know. They are the newer aircraft from the old fleet so makes perfect sense. I bet the deal was done months ago when the lease firm bought them. Would be interesting to know if Cyrus has an interest in that company.

[domperry76]

Let's just say it's my understanding that some of those Q400s will probably (the deal isn't signed off yet) end up with Flybe. Other airlines will also take a number.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

ZULUBOY

True, except the repeat business is harder to come by if the turboprop experience is sub optimal. Having done LON-GLA/EDI/ABZ on every option available in the last 15 years, I tried flybe for the novelty of it but it would never, ever get my repeat business in that market with real jets as the alternative. The Q400 works well in niche routes up against the ATR, it's not a quality option up against jets, which ironically is why flybe made the horrible mistake of leasing expensive ERJs.

What's the top 10 routes for zombie flybe that don't have an incumbent operator? That's the proof of the pudding IMHO.

[OzzyOzBorn]

But it isn't as simple as 'which routes now have a new incumbent operator'. Frequency and capacity must also be factored in. A route such as MAN-SOU now flown once daily by Eastern ATR72 cannot be considered backfilled from the FlyBe operation of upto six Q400 departures per day. Likewise MAN-EXT, now operating less than once daily with Blue Islands. Many other 're-adopted' routes across the former FlyBe network also see this pattern of just one flight per day or fewer replicated. Obviously, covid-related demand supression is a major factor shaping the current regional networks, but as confidence in travel grows and interline opportunities open up again, additional frequencies will be required. Whether or not these can be offered by the new incumbents (who generally have very limited fleet availability) or whether there is space for a second operator to enter the market remains to be seen.

[dc9-32]

Maybe the new Flybe will be wet leasing to other operators !

[NorthEasterner]

Two of the aircraft will be leased to Connect Airlines based in Canada, from September, with the option of three more.

https://bit.ly/3yz8cM0?fbclid=IwAR1qvfKuVGr5UqLtDS8WPhO6i5Ugpbm5aFbck1fjGkG UA7OogOvmgOA7otw

[willy wombat]

OzzyOzBorn

to be blunt, the likes of Blue Islands and Eastern may have “very limited fleet availability” but they’ve both got considerably more “fleet availability” than Flybe 2 has (and if you’re about to argue that Flybe 2 can add aircraft to its current fleet of zero, so can the others).

[Flightrider]

There is surely a point here that backfill to the previous frequency and capacity levels of Flybe will only result in the same outcome. The market has changed massively in the time that they have been out of the game, and if anyone (including new Flybe) think that six Q400s a day between SOU and MAN is needed to serve the demand today, they are in for a nasty shock.

The size of the market today is being determined by passenger demand and not by artificial constraints on capacity created by any perceived lack of seats on Flybe routes.

And given how much these people are apparently spending on consultants to set up the airline, I very much doubt it will be debt free either !!

[BA318]

Indeed. They have been going for a while now with no income while paying management, consultants, applying for their license, leasing the Q400 that has now gone. Plus they will need a huge ad & pr campaign on launch. The debt soon ads up. It will all depend how deep their pockets are. If they can go at it long enough to drive others off the routes they might have a chance.

[southamptonavgeek]

NorthEasterner

Theirs are coming from Chorus, not Aergo.

[cavokblues]

If aircraft are being delivered in the next few weeks shouldn't the airline be announcing their launch routes very soon and getting the website launched to start getting some money coming in the other way?

[JSCL]

Knowing how web developers work, the very existence of https://staging.flybe.com/ and it being protected suggests that there is an imminent web launch coming.

[OzzyOzBorn]

willy wombat

I actually agree with you. My post made no assertions about the fleet capability of what is currently an unknown quantity. But the point which I did make stands.

There is surely a point here that backfill to the previous frequency and capacity levels of Flybe will only result in the same outcome. The market has changed massively in the time that they have been out of the game, and if anyone (including new Flybe) think that six Q400s a day between SOU and MAN is needed to serve the demand today, they are in for a nasty shock.


Likewise, I made no assertions about specific optimal route frequency in a much-changed economic environment. But since you raise the issue, I do contend that the sweetspot is at least a frequency which provides for day return business travel on both of the routes which I cited as examples. Given current frequency offered on routes such as these, opportunities for regional expansion do exist as air travel confidence returns and interline becomes more feasible once again. On your point that increasing frequencies "will only result in the same outcome [as FlyBe 1]" ... I simply disagree with you. FlyBe 1's demise arose from a number of issues including excessively priced lease agreements for Embraer Jets and marginal routes between a number of points on their network. However, not all of their routes were basket cases, and the two I cited in my examples were certainly not responsible for the carrier's ultimate fate. Without access to the books I cannot insist that they were profitable, but I would be quite surprised if they were not.

[Mr A Tis]

There isn't even a daily service between MAN -SOU, Eastern are only operating 5 days a week (no Tue & Wed flights).
Between Eastern (Sou-MAN) & Blue Island (Ext-MAN) I have had 5 flights cancelled over the last couple of months.
With such unreliability I'm no longer booking these flights, but using the train that take insanely long travel times & often ridiculous pricing.
Without any reliability of at least a daily service between these points, the demand is never going to recover. To go from 6 x Dash 8s a day to 5 ATRs a week is a heck of a drop even when C19 is taken into account & with the poor ground transportation on offer. I don't know what the "optimum" offering should be, but Eastern & Blue Island haven't found it.

[OzzyOzBorn]

Mr A Tis ... You elaborate my point with great eloquence. There remains ample opportunity for additional frequencies on core domestic commuter routes whether provided by FlyBe 2.0 or any alternative carrier.

[SWBKCB]

I have had 5 flights cancelled over the last couple of months.

Surely that depends on the reason for flights being cancelled - if it is lack of demand, should they be putting more flights on to stimulate demand by increasing flexibility or is that chucking good money after bad? I think we are still some way from being able to draw conclusions on what the market is going to be like

[Albert Hall]

I think it is indeed much too early.

You elaborate my point with great eloquence. There remains ample opportunity for additional frequencies on core domestic commuter routes whether provided by FlyBe 2.0 or any alternative carrier.

I don't think they do! I could be mistaken, but I thought both Eastern and Blue Islands had double-daily services on SOU-MAN and EXT-MAN on sale for September until fairly recently. If my memory is right, the point that they've deferred frequency increases to a business schedule means that they don't see the demand coming through to support it. Equally if another airline thought there was a gap on the likes of SOU-MAN, I am sure that Loganair (not normally slow in having a pop at Eastern) would be stepping in - and they are not. That must surely tell you something.

Reading between the lines on all of this says that the market is not back at this stage to support higher frequencies. Whether and when it will return is a question that's impossible to answer.

[OzzyOzBorn]

With respect, your timeframe presumes that we discuss the immediate term. That is not the premise that I am highlighting. Any added capacity coming from FlyBe 2.0 in particular (if it transpires) must be considered over a period of many months at least. We are in a time of considerable uncertainty, with fears widely expressed that C-19 restrictions could be ramped up again over the coming Winter months. In this environment, air transport generally will remain depressed. Airlines will be justifiably reluctant to take on risk at a time like this. Interline isn't back in any meaningful way. Businesses remain wary of liability if employees fall sick in the course of a work-related trip. Winter is the low-season for leisure travel at the best of times, barring a short window either side of Christmas and New Year. Airlines across all sectors had placed speculative capacity on sale for the season ahead in the hope that Covid restrictions would be a thing of the past. They aren't. And the mood music from Whitehall suggests that barriers to travel will remain in place until Easter 2022 at the earliest. But the implications of that do not define the long-term market potential of specific inter-regional routes once the pandemic is deemed to have passed. The whole industry is in survival mode in the immediate term, not just the regional carriers.

The question raised was whether the market for inter-regional air travel can absorb a new entrant carrier such as FlyBe 2.0. My contention is that the opportunity is there, because those core routes once flown by legacy FlyBe have been adopted on a token basis only at this point. Carriers have staked their claim, so to speak. Frequency increases proposed by carriers such as Loganair, Eastern and Blue Islands have not been sustained because we're still in the thick of 'Covidworld' in the short term, not because the public will never want to fly again. First, we must restore confidence in air travel generally - that is likely to be a tough ask during this Winter at least. Eastern and Blue Islands et al are absolutely right to sidestep the risk of committing to expansion of fleet and crew until this uncertain phase passes.

Looking at our examples of SOU-MAN and EXT-MAN again, a chicken-and-egg situation afflicted the Summer months. The sustained re-emergence of inter-regional business travel requires a day return capability which hasn't yet been restored. So demand remains depressed by default, even during the most optimistic weeks of Summer. And connecting opportunities have been annihilated, with overseas flights thwarted by travel bans, time-consuming document inspections and endless uncertainty. Though fares offered have been high on the few services which have been operating between SOU/EXT - MAN. When discussing ANY route proposition, we must consider the environment whilst C-19 continues to dominate everything quite seperately from "normal" latent demand post-covid. And yes, the transition period between the two will be gradual requiring weeks and months, the rebound will not be instantaneous.

But the collapse of legacy FlyBe took some 70+ aircraft out of the market. Stobart followed with a further 18 or so. Eastern and Blue Islands are tiny by comparison. They can only scrape the surface of this opportunity unless they are prepared to multiply in size in the face of the worst short-term market conditions the industry has ever seen. Nobody could recommend such a course. Meanwhile, a new entrant such as FlyBe 2.0 (or whoever) enjoys the advantage of choosing the opportune moment to enter the fray, and the rate at which they add capacity. Caution makes sense for all until C-19 travel restrictions are firmly in the rear view mirror. But don't presume that inter-regional routes which sustained healthy demand pre-covid have been killed off forever. Airlines must plan for life after Covid. The "gap in the market" which airlines may perceive is strictly a prize for after the lifting of government restrictions beyond fear of sudden reimposition.

[anothertyke]

You may be right Ozzy. But that depends on the theory that there was a profitable core thin man in a well managed FlyBe 1 if only it could be successfully identified. The alternative proposition is that in an average year, FlyBe had a set of activities all of which would cover variable costs and make a positive contribution, but the sum just didn't add up to coverage of indirect costs.

Suppose you are right that the best bits were the secondary routes ( Soton-Manchester, Leeds-Belfast etc) with a good proportion of business traffic willing to pay full whack for a day return or a next day return. Suppose you can get four decent revenue sectors five days a week out of a plane. That is unlikely to be enough on its own. You have to find something else to make a contribution between 10 and 4. My reading of FlyBe 1 is that, leaving aside the cost side issues, they struggled to identify the profitable core. Perhaps that suggests there wasn't one?

[BACsuperVC10]

I have business in Exeter, and live in the NW, but not Manchester. I used to use Flybe from MAN to EXT, but switched to the train, as I found it in the end more convenient using my local station than trying to reach Manchester Airport and get through T3 security in the morning rush hour. I have to say whilst using this air route, I never found it particularly busy.

[OzzyOzBorn]

I certainly wouldn't begin to advocate replication of the FlyBe 1.0 model. But the notion that every aspect of their business was some kind of basket case incapable of ever achieving profitability is for the birds. There are inter-regional city-pairs which offer opportunity once C-19 restrictions are behind us. But carriers such as Blue Islands, operating five ATR's on an existing network which is right-sized for their business, can only expand to meet the scale of new opportunity by taking on an existential risk in terms of recruiting more staff and significantly expanding their fleet. That would be most unwise in the current climate - I certainly wouldn't recommend it. Likewise Eastern: on Jethro's fleet-size looks like 26 aircraft, though many of these appear to be inactive low-capacity JS41's. Loganair's fleet is larger but is generally kept busy servicing the company's primary role in Scotland along with afew other routes in the portfolio where they make sense. Aurigny is understandably Channel Islands focused. None of these carriers can afford to carry fat ... they don't generally have staff idling about with nothing to do or aircraft sitting around with no established purpose. Yes, several aircraft are grounded by Covid in the medium-term, but even the leanest and best-run businesses couldn't envisage the business environment which has transpired there.

But when covid-think no longer dominates all decisions, route opportunities are there in the regional space. Existing carriers don't have sufficient fleet or staff on their books to take full advantage when the time comes, so there will be space for new entrant carrier(s) or incremental expansion by incumbents. For the latter, cautious expansion would likely be seen as the wisest course: a sudden doubling in fleet size, for example, would be a reckless and existential gamble. But between FlyBe and Stobart, around 90 mid-sized regional aircraft have exited the British Isles market. That is far too many. Emerald is expected to backfill some of these. We can't expect to see 90 aircraft added back in to the market, but it wouldn't be unreasonable to gradually add half of that number. Which is probably beyond the scope of the small number of storm-battered incumbents still standing in the space. So new names will likely be part of the sector's future. Will FlyBe 2.0 be one of these? Who knows ... but I wish them luck in their quest.

[OzzyOzBorn]

BACsuperVC10: I completely respect your personal travel choices. Each to their own. But your posting record makes clear your deep dislike of all things Manchester Airport, and your passionate advocacy for Liverpool Airport. That is fine, but it does mean that you are unrepresentative of typical customers across the NW. For you, there is added value in avoiding use of MAN at all costs (and fair enough if that is your preference). But others will prioritise journey cost, duration, and the likelihood of disruption. In my experience, Cross-Country rail services are extraordinarily expensive, highly prone to delays and journey curtailments, and time-consuming even in ideal conditions. FlyBe MAN-EXT was always a great option for me, and the route supported upto four Q400's per day - so there must have been a reasonable level of demand there. If not, even half of that frequency (morning and evening) allows for a full business day at destination and implies greater concentration of loadings. Twice daily on weekdays would seem to be the best compromise solution to serve but not saturate the market as we gradually re-emerge from Covidworld. Having said all that, I don't recall the consistently lightly-loaded flights which you allude to when I used the original FlyBe services. Perhaps I used peak flights?

[BACsuperVC10]

I use Liverpool Airport more than Manchester because its so much easier to transit through, I fly often ( pre covid ) so I really have given both airports a good try over the years, but that really has nothing to do with getting to Exeter . I have been travelling to Exeter for years now and used to always fly. I moved to rail because from a time point of view there was no advantage in flying and I found with split tickets I could save money. After I did the trip walking to my local station, it really worked out better

[Sharklet_321]

OzzyOzBorn

An awful lot of self-indulgent waffle when the reality is much simpler. Do you honestly think Blue Islands, Eastern and Loganair don't want/aren't capable of doing double daily on these specific few routes? The current demand is not there to sustain it. If this is indeed the entire basis of the business plan for a Flybe 2.0 then it's doomed before its even begun. Short-haul business travel and domestic travel will not rebound to the same levels as before - 1) Investment is being made in businesses to accommodate more remote activities 2) environmentally this is not acceptable anymore. Not to mention the countless suppliers and public who were burned badly by the demise of Flybe 1.0 and will expect to be compensated by any re-emergence of the same organisation - these people won't give a toss as to whether legally it is the same company or not.

Less talk, more action please.

[The Nutts Mutts]

Been reading with interest. My own perception is based on what I've seen at SOU- I believe some routes can sustain frequencies greater than those currently on offer.
Using Eastern as an example, their SOU-BHD route has been steadily building and now has strong loads at healthy fares and full or almost-full aircraft on the peak travelling days.
And yet, the date when it goes double-daily keeps getting pushed back by a month at a time.
Given that it's the same couple of crews flying most days, my impression is that it's a combination of lack of crews as Ozzy alluded to, with the current health and economic environment contributing but not solely responsible for the slow ramp-up of flights.
SOU-MAN has lower loads than SOU-BHD, but given the frequency and cost of flights I don't find this surprising, and even then they're probably averaging about 40-50% full, which seems to be a standard Eastern load. I've got no doubt that with cheaper fares and higher frequencies we'd be seeing much busier flights.
SOU-DUB loads are building steadily too.

[cavokblues]

I guess it's a classic chicken and egg situation. Can a new Flybe stimulate demand on some of its previous more successful routes in a very unusual post Covid environment?

I think it is important to remember any new Flybe will be considerably smaller than the old company. They had no control over their fleet size during the last few years of their previous incarnation so may have operated several rotations just to keep the aircraft busy in the hope of making some money rather than being sat on the ground making nothing whatsoever.

I think its safe to say the likes of Exeter - Manchester and SOU - MAN will not be large enough to sustain two carriers. And at BHX they will be up against easyJet on a few of their other more successful routes flights and I suspect easyJet may stay on the likes of BHX - EDI/GLA for a while yet.

I'm genuinely fascinated to see what their strategy will be.

[Sioltach Dubh Glas]

Based on the CAA's July data, and flight frequency from FR24 the average load factor on MAN-SOU was just over 27pc.

[OzzyOzBorn]

Sharklet_321 - Why the condescending attitude? This is a discussion forum and we're here to discuss. Perhaps you should learn to comprehend the "waffle" which others have written before lashing out. I made a very clear distinction between current demand and post-covid demand. The difference between these two economic environments was clearly differentiated by me, alongside recognition of the transition period between the two. With reference to potential start-up carriers such as FlyBe 2.0, post-covid demand will be key. Since you instantly launch into claims about "current demand", I can only presume that you didn't read and absorb what I wrote. Take a look back: I don't wish to annoy more attentive readers with repetition.

On to your points. I have outlined what the incumbent regional carriers are capable of doing. Blue Islands have four ATR72's and one ATR42. FlyBe had 70+ aircraft; a fleet size some 14x larger, and BCI's fleet wasn't lying idle (pre-covid) just waiting for new route opportunities. Eastern have around 26 aircraft, though many of these are long-term grounded. Fifteen of these are JS41's with only around 29 seats each. Loganair has a larger fleet numerically, but many of it's aircraft are dedicated to Highlands and Islands flying. So NO - these carriers can only step up to any meaningful degree on a small selection of routes. They could invest in expansion, but I outlined why they need to be cautious about that whilst Covid still dominates thinking. Furthermore, demand for day return business travel is not yet known: the option has not been offered on the example routes which I cited so we cannot yet know how much take up there will be when the time comes. What we do know is that fares on the services which are offered are extremely high which is usually a sign of healthy yield. As I explained, demand does not need to rebound all the way back to 2019 levels to make sense: a twice daily service on a route which formerly operated six times daily with decent numbers is a perfectly reasonable proposition.

Your point about what is environmentally acceptable is purely subjective. Anti-carbon zealots will applaud you; climate rationalists will not. That is a debate for elsewhere. But your comment on this is an opinion, not a definitive fact.

I have every sympathy with those who suffer financial loss when any company fails. I myself had to expend considerable time and effort chasing up bank chargebacks when FlyBe failed - it wasn't fun, but employees suffered far more than I did. My priority is to see as many of those employees as possible taken back on by other businesses in the space. Your resentment suggests that you would be content to see many left on the scrapheap. I respectfully disagree with you.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

I think one of the emotions at work here is that no one loved flybe. Many people have fond memories of Dan Air, BCAL, British Midland et al. Even today people are invested in BA or Virgin, Loganair has a long and proud history but flybe just don't have any cache of that nature. Also, a lot of people remember flybe going hell for leather after Loganair after the end of the franchise in Scottish markets where both parties knew there was only room for one. There's no love lost professionally either.

[Mr A Tis]

Domestic travel has never been busier- with so many people staying in the UK, there probably has never been a better time to stimulate domestic air travel where trains aren't suitable.
As has been pointed out, SOU-BHD with Eastern has been building up as it actually operates everyday.
Every month, I keep booking Eastern MAN-SOU-MAN with their twice daily advertised offering, but at the end of every month they revise the next month to a 5 a week service. This means paying higher fares for non advance rail tickets, on trains that take forever to get anywhere (Cross Country).
The Man/SOU always seems to be cancelled Tue & Wed, the same days that SOU-LBA gets cancelled. Maybe this is more a crewing issue ? T3 don't seem to want to fly on Tuesdays & Wednesdays.
If I knew a month in advance what day the service operates, I might book it, but I'm always promised non existent services.
On that model, Eastern will never build up demand. Based on my experiences, I'm not even attempting further bookings with Eastern now.
So, I would welcome a Flybe 2.0 that at least make an effort to plug gaps & stimulate demand. Not at previous levels obviously, but I cant believe the 6 x Dash8s a day on MAN\SOU demand have completely evaporated to zero.

Many have poo poo'd Loganair & easy on the MAN-NQY route, but easy are keeping the route in 2022. BMI Baby ran the service many moons ago & were always full.
If you factor in baggage fees, Loganair are often cheaper than easy.
Domestic air travel isn't dead, far from it, until the train companies get their act together on travel times and fares. Manchester to Bournemouth is substantially cheaper on Cross Country if you buy 7 split tickets each way- which is a farce- isn't it?

[BA318]

I don’t understand the argument that Loganair, Blue Islands etc can’t expand but Flybe can? It’s no harder for those existing carriers to get hold of additional aircraft than it is for Flybe with a total of 0 aircraft. If Loganair sees sufficient demand and wants to expand to meet that it can. There are a lot of aircraft with lessors in need of homes.

[OzzyOzBorn]

I didn't say they couldn't. I just outlined the considerations they must take into account if they choose to do so on a scale which would make a FlyBe replacement unnecessary as we enter the post-covid environment.

FlyBe 2.0 would be starting from nothing. No idea what scale they envisage. Cautious at first if they've any sense. But anything they provide is new capacity to the market.

[adfly]

Mr A Tis

Some very interesting points here, which I'm inclined to agree with. On a related note, and I guess it is due to them being the strongest brand but Loganair seem to have built up their routes gradually in terms of frequency and passenger numbers from Southampton and Exeter. I guess they must have balanced the chicken/egg situation well.

As of now at the former they seem to have morning/evening flights on the Newcastle route, and 3-4 per day on weekdays to Glasgow and Edinburgh which is not far off what Flybe used to operate, albeit on smaller aircraft.

I do wonder if Eastern have a crewing issue at the moment. As it stands the 6 weekly Belfast and 4 weekly each of Dublin and Manchester seem to just about occupy a single based aircraft. I guess with any substantial increases they will have to bring in the second ATR to fit all of the flights in.

[134brat]

I have followed your recent cheerleading for Flybe 2.0 and would like to make a couple of points outwith the discussion about demand for their services in the post Covid market.
1. When BA Connect was 'handed over' to Flybe 1.0 it was a golden opportunity for the management to consolidate the business which, at that time, was certainly viable. Unfortunately the sudden growth went straight to the heads of those in charge and their greed and ambition far outstripped the potential for the company to consolidate and thrive.
2. It is nice of you to say that you have "every sympathy" with those who lost jobs or income directly or indirectly but that is so easy to say when it didn't happen to you.
3. You say that Flybe 2.0 is "starting from nothing". Well yes, that is true but one of the reasons they can do that is because they betrayed their legacy BRAL pensioners and many other creditors. All completely legal but morally contemptible.
4. Take another look at post #617. Skipness One Foxtrot is absolutely correct in his assertion that Flybe 1.0 is not a company which will be much lamented. Despite the many good people who worked for them, the business was thoroughly rotten from middle management up.

We all understand that airlines have to work as a business but when they fall into the hands of sharp suited hucksters whose only aim is a short term return in their investment, it is always going to end badly for those of us who work at the sharp end and enjoy flying our customers around safely.

I would love to be wrong about all this but l have seen it first hand....

[SWBKCB]

Where as those plucky upstarts Loganair and Eastern have spotless histories.

[134brat]

No, l am not seeking to defend the 'jiggery pokery' that goes on in all businesses.

I have been employed by Loganair and have worked in close cooperation with Eastern. I suppose what l was trying to say in my previous post is that, in all my experience of Regional UK airlines (particularly in Scotland) l have never seen anything quite so dysfunctional as Flybe.

The worst thing about it is that it was all so unnecessary. One or two people with the right priorities and the right approach could have built a solid business.

I am in a new job now and very happy with it but l can't help but look back and think that it could have been done so much better.

[OzzyOzBorn]

134brat -

Please feel free to quote ANY passage from my recent postings which 'cheerlead' any one of the brands discussed. I simply analyse all carriers in the space - plus those who plan to enter the market - and draw conclusions accordingly. My comments in support of FlyBe staff who have lost their jobs echo exactly those I have expressed for similarly affected former employees of Monarch Airlines, Thomas Cook Airlines, Stobart Air and others similarly affected. I make no apology for empathising with their plight. If you don't, what does that say about you as a person?

The remainder of your posting does not apply to me, because I have not been "cheerleading" any specific brand. I wish them all a prosperous future, how ever challenging that may be in reality. The existing incumbents, plus Emerald and FlyBe 2.0 in whatever form they take. Feel free to read back and confirm that.

[134brat]

So l don't empathize with former Monarch, Thomas Cook or Stobart staff? And there was me thinking this was a Flybe thread.

I responded to your posts in the context of what has been going on with the Flybe debacle. What kind of person l am is of no consequence in this discussion.

I have personal friends who were caught up in the Monarch/Graybull ripoff and will only say that their experience was similar to what Cyrus has done with Flybe so, if anything, my points are reinforced. (Do some research).

Ultimately my comments were aimed at the greedy,reckless,unethical chancers who get into business with the sole purpose of getting rich quick. I am well aware that there is little to be gained by ranting against this sort of thing but l am just an old school aviation guy who is hating what is going on in the business today.

In order to avoid any further histrionics, this will be my final word on the matter.

[Downwind_Left]

Domestic travel has never been busier- with so many people staying in the UK, there probably has never been a better time to stimulate domestic air travel where trains aren't suitable.

I’m sorry but that’s not even remotely true. Never been busier? On the main UK domestic routes frequencies are generally 50 to 75% less than at the same point in 2019. And that’s with all of the major airlines having spare aircraft and crew sitting around. Some low-frequency niche routes have been added, but the core volume and frequency routes have been decimated.

All air travel in the UK is suffering from massively reduced demand, most staycationers this summer were not travelling by air, and the key business routes show a very bleak picture.

The low frequencies from airlines rear have replaced former Flybe service are because of lack of demand. Planned multiple-daily flights being changed to less than daily are a sure indicator of that.

For example for the latest per-COVID month I can directly compare with 2021;
In July 2019 between Edinburgh and London (LHR/LCY/LGW/STN/LTN) there were 292,582 passengers
In July 2021 between Edinburgh and London (LHR/LCY/LGW/STN/LTN) there were 94,232 passengers
Thats a 67.8% reduction in passenger numbers

Quickest way to lose money at the moment is flying empty aircraft around. Far more commercially savvy to consolidate flights, and save yourself all the fuel, maintenance, airport, handling and navgiation costs from operating an almost empty flight.

The notion that Flybe 2 will stimulate demand at the moment is fanciful. All that will happen if they go up against the likes of Eastern on routes such as MAN-SOU, is you divide the same number of passengers between 2 airlines, create a price vacuum, and make the route unviable for both airlines.

[cavokblues]

No idea accurate the stats are but this site (https://www.anna.aero/2020/03/05/flybe-the-top-30-routes/) suggests only 168 pax per day were flying SOU - MAN. Six 78 seat Dash flights a day shows how much capacity Flybe 1.0 were providing with not many takers. 35% load factor!?

It would be interesting to see if a seats available vs pax travelled analysis exists.

[Albert Hall]

Ozzy, I've been reading the thread over the last couple of days and mulling whether or not to post this, but on the basis you only live once, I'll go for it.

It does read as though your postings are either some kind of thesis on the UK market or a consultant/advisor-type commentary on the UK regional market and the limitless opportunities that you see within it. Either way there are mistakes and gross navigational errors in what you say. I hope that the new powers-that-be at Flybe 2 aren't labouring under the same illusions.

I'll try to use some numbers to back up my statement. You have added the fleets of Stobart and Flybe together to claim a 90-aircraft "gap in the market" after the demise of both. The best sources I can find show that Flybe had 66 active hulls as of its failure and Stobart 14 - so to start the numbers game, it's 80 and not 90. From there:

Stobart had already sent 6 of its ATR72 aircraft to backfill Flybe Q400 routes at BHD so that's a double-count of "lost aircraft". Now 74 left.
Emerald is replacing Stobart at DUB, BHD and ORK and apparently targeting 14-16 aircraft. That's direct backfill for Stobart so if we call it in the middle at 15, we're down to 59 left.
Flying equivalent to 5 Flybe lines of flying were in collaboration with Air France on CDG routes. AF has backfilled itself as far as it apparently wishes and without a Flybe 2/AF similar collaboration (and hell will freeze over before AF even takes the idea to its unions, before you get into AF/KL internal politics where KL hated Flybe with a passion and tried to kill the BE/AF deal), those aren't going to exist ever again. 54 and counting.
Flybe had 4 aircraft in its never-to-be-seen Summer 2020 fleet plan flying BHD, NCL, EDI and GLA to SEN. These only existed to satisfy Stobart as a shareholder and try to pump volume through SEN to help a certain individual towards a big bonus. 1 aircraft was set for LHR-DUS which was Virgin-drivel. 5 aircraft in Flybe's fleet plan of 66 there not requiring backfill - so we're now at 49.
easyJet has launched EDI-BHX, AMS-BHX and GLA-BHX with an A320 on each. Matter of opinion, but it's impossible to see how a Q400 going head-to-head with that will be either viable or sensible. 2 Q400s on each of the 3 routes no longer viable. Descending through FL43.
Blue Islands used to serve JER-LCY and pulled the aircraft off that to backfill Flybe routes on JER-EXT and JER-BHX. 42 and counting.
Eastern used to fly its ATR72s on the Scatsa oil contract and now flies them ex SOU on Flybe routes to MAN, BHD, DUB, RNS, NTE (if the latter get going) which is 2 aircraft covering 3 Flybe lines of flying. 39 steps to go.
Loganair pulled dedicated aircraft off NCL-BRU, MAN-NWI, EDI-NWI, GLA-SEN and ABZ-SEN to backfill Flybe presence on core peak-time flying NCL-SOU, ABZ-MAN, EDI-SOU, GLA-SOU, ABZ-BHX and off-peak infill to the likes of EXT, NQY, BHD. 5 aircraft there, so 34 left.
Loganair also looks to be taking on 2 aircraft for IOM to backfill IOM-LPL and IOM-MAN. 32 left.
Blue Islands is supposed to be getting 2 more aircraft for SOU-MAN and EXT-MAN. 29 left.
BA CityFlyer pulled aircraft from somewhere to replace Flybe on BHD-LCY. 28 left.
BA CityFlyer also put a large level of weekend capacity into SOU (subject to Covid) - roughly 1 aircraft. 27 to go.
Aurigny started GCI-BHX, GCI-EXT and GCI-SOU - roughly 1 aircraft. 26 and still falling.
easyJet and BA CityFlyer have both plonked capacity on Belfast-EMA, Belfast-Leeds etc. Assuming CityFlyer is temporary until Emerald are there, the easyJet A320 presence on BFS-EMA, BFS-LBA will undermine viability of a dedicated Q400 from BHD to either. 2 more aircraft gone. 24.
KLM have gone on SOU-AMS replacing the Flybe Q400 service. Descending through 23
Flybe LHR and LCY services with the exception of BHD (that we've already discounted as BA CityFlyer have taken it) were all reportedly a complete economic disaster area and no-one has taken over their positions on EDI-LHR, ABZ-LHR, EXT-LCY, LCY-AMS etc. 4 more aircraft there for which backfill would be economic lunacy. 19 left.

2 more aircraft were doubled-up to serve BHD-BHX and BHD-MAN from both ends of the route - question whether they were needed or whether the backfill above is sufficient. EDI-MAN appears all but dead - that was 1 aircraft. EDI-CWL and BHD-CWL don't look to support a dedicated aircraft any more which Flybe had. 2 more out. We're now at 16. Strip out the surplus standby aircraft and unproductive hulls that other airlines like easyJet, Loganair, BA CityFlyer already have but were duplicated in Flybe's fleet and that's probably another 2-3 gone. 14 to be kind.

Of those remaining 14 lines of flying, you have a number of year-round routes that still need backfill before you decide on a suicide mission against KLM and easyJet to be the third airline on MAN-AMS or restore chronically unprofitable routes into DUS from the likes of MAN and BHX against Eurowings (4 more Flybe aircraft). LON-NQY, EMA-AMS, EXT-AMS, EXT-CDG, SOU-CDG, BHX-STR/MXP/HAJ/LYS are all unserved today and there is a case as the market recovers for them to return. That's a hell of a mixed bag which would be difficult to knit into a viable business with maybe only 10 aircraft at best.

But the fallacy you've put forward that there are 90 aircraft lost from the UK regional market that need replacing is just that - a fallacy. There are one or two subjective calls in the numbers above but definately not enough to make a viable and practical business. So I reach the conclusion that your notion of a huge gap remaining is either through being misguided or deliberate flame-bait, and that's long before anyone has mentioned the effects of Covid on reduced business travel demand. Unless Flybe 2 is prepared to pony up for a pitch battle with any or all of the airlines listed above who have backfilled Flybe capacity then the gap is incredibly small and so widely distributed as to make a viable business impossible.

They might well end up giving it a go, but the destruction of shareholder value on all sides in the ensuing fight will be fruitless.

Right - I've said my bit. Over and out.

[inOban]

For comparison, before covid there were up to 6 very early flights from EDI to LCY carrying business people who needed to get to the City before 9 (3 BACF, 3 Flybe AIRC.)

Finally this week BACF have relaunched a single flight to suit that market. Just one.

That I think illustrates the collapse of the day return business market.

[SWBKCB]

The impact of interlining will be interesting as well in the way the regional market develops. Certainly LM have a portfolio of agreements, don't know about the others but presumably Flybe.2 will be playing catch-up and won't have immediate access to these markets as they recover

[ATNotts]

Albert Hall,

The notion of there suddenly being viable work for 80-odd airframes is clearly nonsense. Covid-19 has seen to that, and many of the former FlyBe routes probably, as you have eloquently discussed, weren't viable except in the sense of keeping aircraft on expensive leases they couldn't get out of doing something.

If FlyBe 2.0 started up with more than 10 airframes I'd be amazed. I would reckon a figure of closer to 5 might prove to be the reality, and a very limited network centred around a single base - Birmingham European / Brymon Eurpoean / BEA / Maersk UK / Duo anyone? - that didn't end particularly prettily.

[Sharklet_321]

Loved your no nonsense post - you literally hit every nail on the head

[Jamie2009]

At the end of the day it doesn’t matter if you think the relaunch will be a massive success or one of the deluded :* who thinks it will be a failure. Nobody knows for sure.

The bottom line is a global money company with a history of launching new airlines thinks it’s a runner and is investing millions….. they probably know their onions and have access to far more data than any of us.

Cyrus also upped their stake in Esken a couple of days ago.

[willy wombat]

All very well to say that but it misses the point that someone “investing millions” into a new or reincarnated UK regional airline is likely to create a competitive bloodbath which could result in serious losses for the incumbent carriers and consequent job losses with no guarantee that the “new” carrier will succeed. I can’t but feel that the impetus to relaunch Flybe is in part coming from consultants collecting large fees to tell the investors what they want to hear.
I did like Albert Hall’s post. I was. going to post asking whether Ozzy is a consultant because his/her posts sound exact like the sort of drivel I used to hear from consultants.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

And how many money men ploughed money into Norwegian Air Shuttle, then some more money, then even more money and then some more money for luck? Virtually all shareholder value was decimated, the consultants took their fat fees and the founders and "master strategists" moved onto Norse Atlantic where they will get even richer doing the same thing all over again to some of the same people.

Great post Albert Hall

[willy wombat]

A “friend” who was a consultant always said that the trick was to get in, come up with a plan, collect fee and then depart before the plan was enacted so that if/when it failed you were long gone.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

This is true, the painful truth is that so many so called leaders don't actually have the skill set to run a business successfully. My current org is moving to Agile as the Borard told the CEO to make changes and (s)/he was seduced by consultants on how agile was the answer. On roll out to the actual business the feedback was "WTAF?" and no one involved in the day to day could see it working. Ironically the push for this to happen was that the Exec were too slow in making decisions and thse at coalface needed empowering. End result was spaffing away a fortune on consultancy fees for an org that will be bastardised beyond the model to force it to just about work.
It's kinda rare nowadays for "leaders" not to rely on consultancts as they can shift blame if and when it goes wrong. The MBA can be a very useful tool BUT good business judgement doesn't always come with the qualification.

[OzzyOzBorn]

My compliments to you, Albert Hall. Your post epitomises what a discussion forum should be about: a challenging debate encouraging exchange of ideas and expansion of knowledge, rather than the bitching and back-biting which we so often see. I'll gloss over your use of provocative words such as "fallacy" and "illusion" - though I do disagree with you on those points!

Now my response. Your posting argues the premise that I have advocated for a 100% backfill of 90 regional aircraft lost to the market (or 88: the most recent figures I'd seen were 70 for FlyBe and 18 for Stobart). Though if the true final number was 80, the same principle applies. What I actually wrote was this:

QUOTE: We can't expect to see 90 aircraft added back in to the market, but it wouldn't be unreasonable to gradually add half of that number. Which is probably beyond the scope of the small number of storm-battered incumbents still standing in the space. So new names will likely be part of the sector's future.

Note those two key words HALF and GRADUALLY. And I never suggested that NO new aircraft have entered the space already since the demise of legacy FlyBe. All of my contributions to this discussion have urged CAUTION across the board. I have acknowledged that we are currently still in the thick of "Covidworld", with interline decimated, business travel hit by fears of employer liability if an employee falls sick in the course of a business trip, and restrictions (or fear of reimposed restrictions) hitting leisure demand to destinations in Eire, NI, IOM and the Channel Islands. Even Scotland: I myself lost four EasyJet bookings when Sturgeon randomly banned travellers from NW England postcodes for a period of time in mid-2021. No, the opportunity to re-establish core regional business routes lies beyond this period of C-19 uncertainty; my posts are clear and consistent on that. But that is the timescale we are discussing with respect to FlyBe 2.0 - the subject of this thread. They won't be flying tomorrow morning. Using the example of SOU-MAN again, I called for the resumption of TWO daily services (NOT the original six) to allow a foothold for day return business travel to rebuild. Incremental frequencies beyond that should be demand-led. But until that day return option is offered, none of us can stamp our feet and insist that demand for it is gone forever never to return.

On your point about Emerald's potential fleet-size, that was accounted for by me as part of the recovery. We have a good idea of what they intend to do, and my suggestion that we could gradually see upto half of the originally lost aircraft restored to the market does include them. I specifically mentioned this in my postings. As for the point about services to AMS and CDG, regional carriers seemed to love piling in on those. They may choose to do so again, but it wasn't something I ever advocated for back then and I don't plan to do so going forward. On the topic of EasyJet, they have been proactive in allocating capacity to routes which the public are allowed to fly during S2021; a commendable strategy from their perpective, but whether or not they will stick with those markets as more familiar leisure routes open up to them again remains to be seen. Others including Jet2 (JER), Loganair (NQY, JER etc.) and Eastern also moved capacity to 'permitted' leisure destinations within the British Isles.

But, how ever much we may debate 'before and after' distribution of fleets, the bottom line remains this: routes such as our example SOU-MAN is being offered less than once daily, down from six daily. My contention is that routes such as this one and others like it do represent an opportunity for regional carriers as society recovers from C-19 restrictions. That means both the incumbent carriers still standing, and any new entrants - though I agree that one carrier per route would be desirable from a sustainability perspective. Though those carriers which under-serve a route will be game to face a challenge. Traffic may not rebound back to former levels, but I contend that things will recover to a far greater degree than we see now (as we head into another Winter of uncertainty and rumours of a "firebreak lockdown"). I accept that some here can only envisage a 'doom and gloom forever scenario' - is that a manifestation of recency bias? - but I find myself more optimistic than that. Not gung-ho ... caution is essential ... but in my view a viable regional market awaits the surviving companies post-Covid. Will FlyBe 2.0 be a participant in that space? I don't know ... never purported to ... and I certainly don't expect them to come close to legacy FlyBe in fleet-size or scope if they do (I never suggested that). But there is a prospective niche for them as long as formerly successful higher frequency routes remain served less than once daily.

[cavokblues]

the bottom line remains this: routes such as our example SOU-MAN is being offered less than once daily, down from six daily. My contention is that routes such as this one and others like it do represent an opportunity for regional carriers as society recovers from C-19 restrictions.

I think the danger is assuming because Flybe flew the route 6 times a day there was demand for 6 flights a day. As I posted last night the estimated passengers each way on that route is about 164, just over two full dash 8's. (https://www.anna.aero/2020/03/05/fly...top-30-routes/ (https://www.anna.aero/2020/03/05/flybe-the-top-30-routes/))

[SWBKCB]

CAA stats for 2018 are 220k and 2019 200k, so gives about 500 a day

[Albert Hall]

Ozzy, now I'm really baffled.

If we put the numbers of aircraft to one side, I think you are saying that a long-term gap exists for Flybe 2 in future because the service level provided by the likes of Eastern on SOU-MAN right now is only one flight a day and that isn't adequate. One look at the Eastern website for early October (4 weeks away) shows the route going to a 2 x daily morning + evening schedule. Same for Blue Islands on EXT-MAN from next summer. Now whether or not they make those moves, only they (or time) can tell. You say that routes like this represent an opportunity for regional carriers as passenger numbers recover from the pandemic. Looking at the plans laid out on their booking systems for all to see, the evidence is clear that Eastern and BI agree with you. Going back to aircraft numbers, it looks like Eastern don't need to add any aircraft to do this - they increase the utilisation of the existing ATR72s as I am presuming they plan to do.

So I'm really none the wiser as to where this gap is. The premise is based on taking a very short-term snapshot, assuming that it remains unchanged for the future, passenger demand increases and the now-incumbents either choose not to do anything about it or are incapable of doing so. The evidence out there already shows that isn't the case.

[OzzyOzBorn]

Albert Hall ... I suspect that the confusion arising here is because you're focusing solely on SOU/EXT-MAN in your response there. I acknowledge that I used those two routes as examples for the purpose of illustrating a wider point, but the regional market encompasses many potentially viable city-pairs across the whole of the British Isles. I personally don't envisage the relatively small operations of BCI/EZE/LOG expanding sufficiently to saturate all of those routes in the post-covid era; others may disagree. On routes which Blue Islands or Eastern do offer a full day return option, the market is likely to be satisfied and the opening for a second carrier goes away. Unless a newcomer fancies challenging them on price which cannot be ruled out. But so far, the day return has been timetabled but never actually offered in reality since FlyBe exited the market. If they do actually go double-daily from October, then GREAT ... that will inform us of the rate at which business travel might be expected to recover (barring a "firebreak lockdown" scenario). We also desperately need to see foreign travel restrictions lifted so that interline bookings can resume in earnest. But as we see across the air travel market in general, if a route remains starved of capacity for a lengthy period of time, competitors will see that as an invitation to help themselves to the incumbent's lunch. That's business.

Let's be clear also that we're still mired in the 'chicken and egg' phase of Covid restrictions. Will they / won't they? It is difficult for any airline to plan against this backdrop. But remember that this discussion arose in the FlyBe 2.0 thread to assess whether there is a market opening for them. Their timescale for this isn't the here and now. It is (probably) months hence ... and maybe never. I have continuously emphasised the difference between travel demand in post-covid times and that which we experience in the thick of it. I contend that demand numbers will look very different when all this uncertainty is behind us ... others may disagree. But FlyBe 2.0 and others like them will stand or fall on post-covid demand. I do expect a demand bounceback in that environment ... not to 2019 levels, but to numbers alot healthier than those we're seeing now. All carriers must plan based upon their own interpretations of market conditions ahead, but I have outlined my view and I stand by it.

I may be proven right, I may be proven wrong. As may you. But we will only know the facts on that with the benefit of hindsight after the event. Everything else is conjecture, how ever strongly-held our views.

[Flightrider]

Any credibility of statements being made by one poster went out of the window with the assertion that easyJet had a commendable strategy when the CAA figure for July lay bare just how bad several of these routes were. Load factor of c.20% on NQY-BHX and INV looks like a calamitous rather than commendable strategy to me.

[OzzyOzBorn]

Alot of factors come in to play on decisions such as that, not just direct profits to the bottom line. Aircrews can gain and maintain currency on flights bringing in some actual cash-flow, which circuit-bashing does not. Aircraft left unused for long periods become costly to return to service. Short revenue generating sectors can make sense to address these problems at a time like this. Never underestimate the value of bringing a bit of actual cashflow through the door. Not all routes saw load factors as poor as those you cite anyway. Some have seen decent take-up.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Which ones have seen decent take up?
And at what price point?

[OzzyOzBorn]

Well my EasyJet A320neo ABZ-MAN was 100% full two and a half weeks ago. That's not bad. And the prices for the MAN-NQY were so high that I decided not to book ... that generally indicates that the flight has sold well.

Yield ... I don't have access to EasyJet's books. Can you enlighten us?

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Of course not, but you're clearly smart enough not to be making predictions from two data points.
BTW easyJet flying a high volume A320 every second day on ABZ-MAN makes Loganair's attempt to offer business friendly frequency fatally undermined. This is NOT any arguement in favour of a flybe model. Same thing happened on the IOM. You can have cheap fares as and when the volumes allow or higher fares with more flights but it's a huge challenge to have both in some of these markets. Any addition is seldom all net new.

[OzzyOzBorn]

I didn't make a prediction, Skip? And I haven't argued the case in favour of EasyJet versus Loganair either. Competition can come at a cost. But I address what happens in the real world ... not a rose-tinted one. Business is unforgiving.

[willy wombat]

Business is indeed unforgiving as I suspect the investors in Flybe 2 will discover if it ever gets off the ground.

[fjencl]

Any news ?

[Blackfriar]

I think the long-run commercial model for all but the most niche short haul routes is an A320 sized, lowest seat mile cost aircraft. Once, twice, triple daily. If a carrier comes in with a small jet or turboprop and builds volumes via frequency, a loco will come on the route, so they have no future. It’s hard and unfair but that’s about it. There is no future for Flybe, Loganair etc. apart from dodging EasyJet, Ryanair et. al.
unless they invent a 50 seater with seat mile cost the same as an A320.

[cavokblues]

There probably is some opportunity on thinner routes but there won't be loads of money to make on them. The problem Flybe/ Loganair will always have is along heavier routes they will always be up against a low cost airline or a flag carrier where they may struggle to compete on price or perceived service / brand.

[RVF750]

They did. It's called a Q400. However, when you end up paying near enough 3 x the real leasing cost you've got no chance to make money.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

You CAN make money on low volume relatively high frequency routes, Loganair's bread and butter is exactly this BUT they're not low cost. As soon as the volumes hit a certain level it makes more sense for an easyJet or a Ryanair but as soon as that happens, frequency is lost. You can't have everything.

[Flightrider]

RVF750, you keep making statements like that (posts #495 and #496) and it's simply not true. I happen to have a schedule of the leases and they are all in the $150k per month area which is a market-normal rate pre-Covid for leasing a Q400 - G-JECL was at $122,245 plus Eur27,428 per month for example.

The only aircraft on different terms were a small number on which Flybe had done an "equity release". The amount of equity (or, in other words, the cash they needed out of the deal to cover previous losses) was directly related to the finance cost of the aircraft thereafter.

Yes, leases have fallen after Covid, as they have for every aircraft type. But the change in lease rentals through a pandemic which hadn't really got under way in the UK before Flybe collapsed cannot have caused it to collapse.

[willy wombat]

And let’s face it, if you need to enter into an aircraft lease involving equity release, you’re not in great shape financially.

[fjencl]

Any news on what base or bases will be starting up

[ETOPS]

Starting with BHX - future plan is MAN but at some later time. I doubt much will be visible this year...

[ajamieson]

Skipness One Foxtrot

In what sense? Internally, or to consumers?
Because LM is cheaper and more flexible for me as a customer than Flybe, which appealed only to the undiscerning.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

They're high cost because of the high frequency model using low capacity turboprops. Same as Aurigny or Blue Islands, as soon as volume hits a certain ceiling, it's open for an A320/B737 operating loco to launch low frequency and high volume service, which can actually drive volume and lower prices but out of season connectivity can be poor and reliability worse. See Isle of Man for the best example IMHO.

Now both models are needed, no one wants a return to BA LHR-Scotland fares at 1990s prices but sometimes both business models can trip over each other where no clear winner is apparent IMHO.

[Blackfriar]

indeed, as SLF I prefer the loco model as it has provided many new services as well as low fares. No one operating under the 1990s model would have operated triple daily 186 seaters on a route like BRS-BFS, but that’s what’s on offer. I can remember dispatching Dan Air budgies that couldn’t make money on BFS-BRS-CWL-BFS services in the 1980s
Can someone offer triple daily 50 seaters with fares like EasyJet? I don’t think so. There seems to be a break point where fares are so low ( in the £30 - £50 per sector) that the volumes step change and you can fill 320s. So you either run Loganair business type services with hefty prices or reduce the fares and drive volume like EasyJet. The problem is that if you prove the viability of a route to generate decent volumes at £150 per sector, the locos know from their price elasticity experience that they can come on the route with a 186 seater and fill it. I don’t see a future for the Loganair model except for Highlands and Islands type services where volumes will always be low.

[BusterHot]

ETOPS; interested to hear your take on when this will all actually happen. I used to work for them and have also heard BHX, then MAN and perhaps BHD/SOU, but things continue to be kicked along the road with no firm dates announced.

How long can a “virtual airline” afford to take to get its act together? They have a bunch of people working for them, all being paid, an office (somewhere) requiring rents, still only one aged Dash on the books (or is it?) and apparently some pilots, crews and administrators all being slowly recruited if LinkedIn is to be believed.

But one thing they’re not doing is generating any income by flying anything, even the odd charter and certainly not (as far as I can tell), doing anything wrt crew retraining to make that happen any time soon. How long can that last?

Its all very well sitting waiting for the right moment to hit the market with something crowd pleasing, but from where I sit with experience of many years painfully watching Flybe drift from one crisis to another, I haven’t seen anything to convince me I wasn’t right to keep well clear of this revised operation when loosely offered the chance to get involved.

[davidjpowell]

This one is easy. While other airlines are flying around trying to get whatever income they can to pay for their fleet and wages bill, Flybe can afford to wait until the time is right to actually make a profit. The low fixed costs are nothing compared to running services at a loss.

[BusterHot]

I hope you’re right.

[davidjohnson6]

There needs to be at least a couple of months from flights going on sale, to first flight operating, if only because pax will be a bit sceptical after March 2020. Granted operating empty flights would be a disaster... but when *should* that first real flight be ? Would maybe Jan 2022 give enough time to have everything ready for a photo opp with a cake ?

[Flightrider]

Davidjpowell

Interesting view. Flybe must now be paying for aircraft (otherwise they could not hold an AOC] and the bunch of consultants on day rates on not come cheap. They will certainly be burning cash and the only question is how much. You are then assuming every other rival airline is burning cash. How can you say that with certainty ?

[JobsaGoodun]

Adverts for Line Captains, First Officers, Cabin Managers, Senior Cabin Crew and Junior Cabin Crew all out on LinkedIn today.

[davidjpowell]

I suppose I can't be certain. I'm pretty positive though!

The only way an airline can make money at the moment is if they can downsize their fleet to remove fleet cost, get rid of the crew (without paying redundancy), and downsize their head office costs in line with their current schedule. I don't believe that has happened. Airlines have saved what they can, perhaps made some redundancies and borrowed lots of cash. Logan Air for instance took a £25m facility.

If they get the right fleet and route structure they are going to come to market with no debt from the last 2 years. It will be interesting to see what difference that makes.

[BA318]

It’s likely not true that they will have no debt. They had a Dash 8 for a couple of months, have been paying management and consultants since start up and will have a huge advertising bill to replace all the Flybe broke stories that appear when you google them. It will depend how much they have in start up money but they are spending a lot with no income at all.

[Whispering Giant]

The Dash 8 they did have (G-CLXC), is no longer with them. It ferried across the pond to Canada, and has been de registered by the CAA on the 10th September 2021.

[ETOPS]

As I mentioned it will be BHX base to start with..

https://www.linkedin.com/jobs/flybe-jobs-worldwide/?f_C=2730623%2C23151&trk=top-card_top-card-primary-button-top-card-primary-cta&currentJobId=2732651907&position=1&pageNum=0

[cavokblues]

Speculating here but I suppose a BHX base means there is a high chance they will be operating to Belfast, Edinburgh, Glasgow and Amsterdam - the old traditional Flybe stomping ground.

So they will be up against easyjet - who I suspect will try to stick around on those routes post Covid.

Intrigued to see how this fares!

[ATNotts]

Possibly, but I would put more money on the likes of STR, LYS, BER, NOC and possibly the Channel Islands.

On BHX / Scottish and Belfast routes business passengers need frequency and there could be a gap in the market if EZY don't offer more than 2 daily on GLA / EDI.

I can't see a fleet of more than 5 a/c in the first year.

[Jamie2009]

Good luck everybody.
This isn’t Cyrus’s first rodeo and they wouldn’t be investing millions if they didn’t believe in this new airline.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

On BHX-GLA/EDI, if easyJet remain and pick up volume, there's no gap in the market. It stops the old higher frequency low volume model from making any money as the volume to support it is cut away. IOM is the current case study. The "old traditional stomping grounds" are not the same as they were.

[Flightrider]

Looking at Flybe 2, it is technically possible for them to have no debt. The start-up costs could well have been funded through equity instead of debt but either way, it is money on which either a bank or the shareholder is expecting a fulsome return!

I think other airlines have done exactly as you describe (Eastern for one). Many airlines have taken on loans with Loganair included, and what isn’t clear now is where they all sit. Jet2 reported that they had taken a Government CCFF loan but their cash position was strong and if you look at the net debt position then it was quite strong. Others could well be in the same boat. I think the one thing you can say with certainty is that no airline will have taken on debt just to keep losing money and without taking actions to cut their cash burn radically. No-one is that stupid.

In other words, I don’t think anyone can say for certain whether or not Flybe 2 has a great advantage over others. It might have, but might not.

[Rivet Joint]

There is still a market for them but the landscape has definitely changed that's for sure. I see no reason why they won't be able to push the likes of T3, LM etc off most of their routes like they did in the past (obviously not the Scottish highland routes). We know T3 rarely stick around on routes when competition turns up and LM are all over the place with their fleet. They must have at least 5 different types currently complicating their ops? Not to mention their main re-fleet are circa 25 year old ATRs that are no match to the q400. I think its important to remember that a lot of BEs trunk routes were up to 5 flights a day, whilst that will not be sustainable any more, 3 flights a day could be. Also worth mentioning that a lot of the French regional routes that they served have are not being served by anyone so that market is still there for them. Also some key hub routes like SOU to CDG etc. There is a place for a smaller BE and if its debt free they stand a good chance.

[SKOJB]

There is a very good reason why those French regional routes are not currently being served, work it out for yourself!

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Good post, but the reason they won't easily push a.n.other off is that they'll need to lead on price as a lot of people, certainly many regulars will know they went bust, closed down and left a debt trail. The price will have to be good. And Loganair have a load of old jets that can go head to head with a Q400 if that's felt necessary, and be honest, on short haul, Joe Public can't tell a 25 year old ATR from a 20 year old Q400.

[Rivet Joint]

SKOJB

Where did I say that they needed to be served straight away? Do you think all those people with second homes in France sold them during lockdown? If anything COVID has probably increased the chance of more people buying holiday homes. When things open up fully then the market will be there.

[Rivet Joint]

Skipness One Foxtrot

Valid points but then they pushed pretty much every other region operator off routes in the past and even bought a few as a result of the q400. This was before the vanity project of getting involved with jets. LM stand no chance against a new BE on trunk routes to the UK. The 145s are incredibly cramp and the ATR 500s that they use are noisy and slow. The q400 might still be a prop but it is fast, relatively quiet and spacious compared to those two. The price is always going to be much lower on a q400 vs a 145 as well which customers will notice. If LM were building their fleet around the ATR 600 then you would probably have a point about joe public not noticing the difference. I think LM plan to have 4 600s so maybe they are planning to use some on the right routes.

[commit aviation]

I am wondering if another point is around the number of seats on the different types.
The E145s and ATR 42s have around 50 seats whilst the Q400 has around 80.
I presume that in the same way as Flybe would struggle for example against EZY on BHX - EDI where the economics of an A319 wins over a Dash albeit with less rotations, the same applies between the Q400 and a 145 / ATR 42?
Obviously the ATR 72 has more seats so the maths would likely be closer on that equation.

[cavokblues]

Time difference between an older ATR and a Dash 8 on UK domestic routes will be negligible, especially when the sectors are padded out time wise like all operators do.

[Fly757X]

There is no doubt that the Q400 is a fast prop, that is true. However, as other posters have mentioned this benefit will not be realised at all. And, if it is, it'll be a matter of minutes on the longest of sectors. The 145s may look cramped but I've personally never had a bad experience on them. I'd go as far as saying they are possibly the most comfortable experience on the UK domestic market despite their cabins being dated. I haven't had a terrible experience on a Q400 either but I have always found them tighter. This is of course subjective. As for the ATR fleet it must also be noted that the -500/-600 denotation is a marketing name for the -212A rendering them essentially the same bar a few matters which won't make much of a difference to passenger experience. These include newer PW127M engines and also a refreshed avionics suite on the -600. Furthermore, all of LM's -500s have recieved new cabins indentical to that which are most commonly found on -600s today. Infact I do believe the cabin is indential to the AT46 they've recieved recently. The fact is "Joe Public" won't notice a difference between their AT45/46s, and if they do, they're also a spotter with knowledge of specifics!

As for cost... Well again this is tough. From my understanding LM have exclusive access to the leases of most of their Embraers which makes them as good as owned as they are from a closely related company. The only three which aren't in that state were previously leased but were bought outright by Loganair last year. Ownership costs will indeed only go so far and the Q400 of course operationally is much more attractive financially.

[fjencl]

So, with the job adverts out there now for flight deck as well as cabin crew and managers , they must have an operational starting date in mind.

[planedrive]

Manchester, Birmingham, Southampton and Belfast listed as the choices for operating bases on the Flight deck application forms.

[Blackfriar]

Easyjet are already back to 3 or 4 a day on BRS-BFS which will be a thinner route than BHX-BFS. But they do have it to themselves.
the EasyJet schedule on BHX-BFS is between 2 and 4 a day in October and there are other carriers I’m sure, so what room is there for Flybe?
so the traffic is back and Flybe is nowhere.

[Alteagod]

And Emerald at BHD. Are they building stands 11 to 23 then?

[055166k]

Does Belfast City Airport have any advantage over Aldergrove for passengers?

[Dorking]

Depends where you`re making for, but for me it was 10 mins in a cab from City Airport to the City Centre. Aldergrove is in Country Antrim 18 miles west of Belfast. City Airport is smaller, neater and easier to use.

[Alteagod]

And depends which airport gives better deal to airline. I would honestly not rule BFS out as a base

[Albert Hall]

And I think that is a big missing factor in all of these debates - which airports want Flybe back. From what I hear of a few, they do not want to return to 90% of their business being with one airline and they are not offering deals for them to return and push others out. A network based around who will and won’t do deals will be eclectic to say the least.

[Blackfriar]

055166k

If you are going into Belfast it’s a £10 cab fare vs £30 cab fare at BFS. Makes a huge difference to the overall cost when the flight might cost £25. City is easier to get through as a passenger, smaller and more compact. BHD couldn’t accommodate all the Belfast flights as EasyJet has a huge operation at BFS now. Well, huge compared to when I worked there in the 1980s and we had Shuttle, BMA to LGW, and a couple of LBA. Now regularly 3 or 4 320s on stand when I come in, plus the charter stuff and Jet2.

[True Blue]

Or you could take about a 40 minute bus journey at £8?

[Blackfriar]

or walk for free. Not the point. The bus doesn’t go where I want to, but a taxi does. Buses are slow, infrequent and unreliable.

[Alteagod]

Airlines only interested in fees charges handling costs etc not how much it will cost Joe Soap to get to airport. I understand that BFS wants to be less dependent on one carrier for all its domestic traffic and to diversify it carrier portfolioi

[Jet Set Willie]

Have to back what skipness one echo says as operating out of SOU. The view was from pax I spoke to, having worried about FlyBe having gone bust in the past, they now see it as a blessing in disguise with reliable operators like Loganair and BACF on routes that are now showing very healthy loads. Raising Flybe from the ashes will definitely mean it will bring unwanted baggage with it.

[SWBKCB]

Albert Hall

Wasn't it only SOU and EXT where BE 90% of the business?

[SKOJB]

Think BHD also

[SWBKCB]

Thought LHR would be more than 10% of BHD's business?

[SKOJB]

Seems BE had around 80% of scheduled flights from BHD, so the airport were heavily reliant on the purple planes!

[cavokblues]

https://www.business-live.co.uk/enterprise/administrators-look-claim-cash-new-21833195

[bean]

SKOJB

Utterley incortect
SOU BHX and SOU were very big bases

[Alteagod]

I think the point is the airport was overly reliant on just one carrier ie BE a situation they not keen is repeated

[bean]

So was Sou
I despiar after 9 years but, is there any remote chance of some accuaracy?

[bean]

Ops original post badly phrased
so, now, instead of correcting inaccuaricies until i'm blue in the face, i have to be a mind reader as well.
Goodbye

[allan1987]

Looks to be G-JECX will be the first plane for Flybe 2.0
and is painted in the new Flybe purple livery similar as G-JECP

https://www.skyliner-aviation.de/regdb.main?LC=nav4&page=4

[southamptonavgeek]

Do any photographs of this aircraft exist with the new scheme?

[Jamie2009]

Feels like it getting close…. All the pieces are coming together. :ok: Slot grab my arse

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

I think the slot grab was Plan A.
Ressurecting a defunct airline in a post pandemic world is Plan B.
You can imagine how many former passengers are still owed money by flybe....! What's the pitch to the formally loyal customers? £££

[southamptonavgeek]

And yet a quote from ACL in a recently-posted article suggests that the new airline has had the slots transferred to it.

[globetrotter79]

..does this mean transferred to it from the 'old' flybe's holding, or flybe 2 have re-applied for remedy slots and been allocated some from the BA/BD remedy 'pool'?

Obviously this doesn't make a whole lot of difference at LHR (other than that, in the latter scenario, flybe 2 would have less flexibility to be able to use those slots to serve other routings for 3 years), it is more of a fundamental question whether flybe 2 can get their hands directly on original flybe slot holdings elsewhere..

[DC3 Dave]

So many hints; articles suggesting this and that. Interpretations, calculations and assumptions.

Let us have some flesh on the bone.

[ATNotts]

You're not going to get that until the airline is good and ready. If there are any new employees on PPRuNe they are, with total justification, keeping their fingers off their keyboards on the subject.

[southamptonavgeek]

I believe that, alongside the remedy slots 'leased' from BA, some/all slots have been transferred from the 'old' Flybe.

From this article: https://www.business-live.co.uk/enterprise/administrators-look-claim-cash-new-21833195
Specifically the paragraph which reads as follows:ACL, the company which coordinates slots at 46 airports, confirmed to Business Live that some landing slots had transferred from the original firm to the new Flybe company.

In June 2021 ACL said: “Following the revocation of the former Flybe’s operating licence, ACL confirms that the airline held no slots at UK or Irish airports at the time of the revocation, having transferred them to the new Flybe operation, to which the Flybe business was transferred in October 2020.”

It added: “ACL is not expecting any slots held by Flybe 2 to be returned. If they are, it will re-allocate them to other carriers.”

[BA318]

My understanding was these are the other slots MAN for example. The disputed BA slots went back to BA. The new Flybe can of course get them but will have to use them for the same period before they would keep them as before. Does anyone know if they did or are they leasing separate slots from BA?

[allan1987]

New Flybe livery

https://www.flickr.com/photos/bjornvandervelpen/51610883096/in/pool-flymst/

[Jamie2009]

https://www.jetphotos.com/photo/10337429?utm_campaign=iOS&utm_medium=Referral&utm_source=iOS+App

[Atlantic Explorer]

Blimey, I bet it didn’t take them long to come up with that design! I hope that’s not the finished article?

[euromanxdude]

I like it. Distinctive, keeping it simple.

[Albert Hall]

You just have to laugh. This was an airline which in its first incarnation had something like four different colour schemes on the go at the time it ceased trading as each new CEO introduced one. It goes bankrupt, restarts and the first thing the next CEO does is come up with another new colour scheme. What's the point? If you were going to change the brand in its entirety then I can understand why you would need a new scheme, but this is just a continuation of the previous comedy sketch.

[Jamie2009]

This is far from a continuation, it’s a fresh start, a reset and a new business. All the past terrible business decisions wiped clean. I like the new paint scheme - keep it simple. It’s going to be an interesting few months

[Albert Hall]

I don't disagree that it's an interesting few months ahead, but I disagree with the reset and a new business. If that was genuinely the case, you wouldn't have painted Flybe down the side of the 'plane. But they very clearly have.

[dixi188]

When I finished at Flybe two years ago there were 5 different colour shemes on the Q400 fleet.
Blue and white, purple/ yellow/ red / white, new purple and white, old Brussels blue fin, old Continental airlines.
I hoped to get a photo of all 5 on stands 1 to 5 at SOU but never saw that, only saw 4 in a row.

[Atlantic Explorer]

Jamie2009

Yeah try telling that to all the people who got burnt and lost money due to the previous Flybe.

I agree with Albert Hall, it’s just laughable. If anything, the ‘new’ flybe should be running a mile from the old one in terms of marketing and branding.

[BA318]

It is bizarre. How many other businesses have been relaunched from bankrupt predecessors with the same name and similar branding? Especially ones which had such a notable ending. They seem to think there is value in the brand. I am not so sure.

The only airline examples I can think of are in the US and they didn’t last - Pan Am, Eastern.

[Dorking]

If this lot get cracking and in 5 years time they are still in business, I'll take my hat off to them....until then....

[ATNotts]

I can think of many, though not necessarily businesses with a high public profile, though there have been several retailers that have been bought out of administration as a "pre-pack" have royally shat over the creditors of the former business. Adding "2021" to the former business name normally does the trick.

It's immoral, but it happens every day of the week. If the new airline has the goodwill of creditors such as airports, fuel suppliers, Eurocontrol and the like then that's half the battle. For passengers, if the offer (price and schedule) is right most, but not all, will happily pay up and fly.

[RVF750]

A good friend of mine, with a lot of experience in the industry said to me at the time, with the crazy leasing structure in place due to past Walker Trust dealings, they never stood a chance. The only way that company could have survived was to shut down and start again. They had to shake of those legacy leases and aircraft and it was the only way. The COVID 19 Pandemic came right in the middle of the event, it was going to happen anyway. It's what has delayed the whole restart. Fundamentally, if it wasn't for those outrageous leases, the airline was a sound business. I wish it well and hope they can get back as many of the superb pilots and cabin crew they had before back into the skies soon. The Q400 is by far a better aeroplane than the other regional turboprops out there. I wish them well.

[Flightrider]

RVF750, I'm going to call you out yet again for peddling this line about the Walker leases. It simply is not true.

[cavokblues]

I'm not sure how accurate that is. The costs of the Embraers were certainly outrageous - but I'm fairly certain if you go through the accounts and remove the lease costs the airline still loses money for the last few years.

The main issue with the lease agreements on the Dash 8's was they left the airline in a position where they had no control over the size of the fleet and were committed to operating 70+ aircraft when they didn't really have anywhere to operate them. Hence the new bases which were tried in the last few years, Bournemouth, Liverpool etc - they were desperate to fly the aircraft somewhere to try to limit loss.

Fundamentally the leases were signed by the management. The leases were onerous but I think it was the outrageous management which fundamentally lead to the airline's demise.

[Flightrider]

Cavokblues, thank you. The largest single issue was the huge Embraer commitment which tied the airline into a lot of expensive aeroplanes that it did not need and had to go through all sorts of hoops to try to escape. There were a hundred and one other challenges, mistakes, errors and misjudgements which contributed to Flybe's eventual demise. Heathrow was one, and it's interesting to see that it is apparently part of the new plan, although the bmi remedy slots have been handed back for this winter season.

[Jamie2009]

Getting a strange feeling of deja vu here. Who cares! It’s all history and it’s not as if any of us know the full picture but are fully aware of how it came to a demise.

The new company should be mindful of the past mistakes but they’re unlikely to be repeated.

onwards and upwards….

I can see the launch including codeshares with virgin and it would really lay down the gauntlet if they went after the oil contracts from eastern / Logan although I doubt they’ll have the capacity at the start.

[willy wombat]

Throw down the gauntlet? Have you already forgotten how it ended last time Flybe went after Loganair.

[southamptonavgeek]

I agree that going after an established carrier such as Loganair would be a very poor strategy, but as far as we're concerned at the minute, the new airline is probably being (relatively) generously funded by Cyrus. The "old" company was already on its knees by the time of the Loganair/Eastern debacle. Unless Flybe want to be competed against from all sides, it will be very interesting to see whether they "team up" with LM/SI or T3/GR.

[055166k]

Does Loganair receive a subsidy from the Scottish Government for route development?

[BA318]

No more than what is available to others. Such subsidy would be technically illegal state aid and likely to cause issues if it wasn’t given transparently and fairly. Hence why Ryanair is constantly in court. They do have PSO routes which probably help keep the budget healthy.

[ATNotts]

​​​​​​Surely since the UK left the EU the government can pretty well do what it wants regarding state aid.

[SWBKCB]

No - carried over into UK law. Also comes into WTO considerations - see the various Boeing and Airbus scuffles.

[RogueOne]

Dorking

..until then we'll have to listen to the nonsense spouted by all the naysayers on here. CAN WE NOW PLEASE be happy for those people who might get their jobs back, and the 100s of jobs this new airline will not only create, but also support at all the airports they chose to operate to.

Big thumbs up to all involved.

Jamie2009

Exactly. This is Flybe Ltd, new company, new owners, & despite the same name, all the old legacy decisions and mistakes now sit with the old company - which is Flybe Realisations Ltd for anyone keeping score (paying attention)

[BA318]

Yep as said all EU law was carried over into UK law so until repealed it will still apply. And other countries can still object as the WTO example shows.

[Dorking]

RogueOne

Normally I d ignore your rant but since you've quoted me so here goes...everyone is entitled to their opinion..such opinions are honestly held and just as valid as yours and just as valid to put forward..If you don't like what you read read you scroll past. Instead you reacted like a child in a playground...jog on

[Saabdriver1]

I think if you are expecting large numbers of people whose pension partly depended on Flybe from the BRAL scheme to “live and let live”, then you have another think coming. Many will find the presence of a renewed Flybe backed by the same venture capitalist which was in the privileged position of taking security over many assets and has already received big payouts from the administrator to be deeply distasteful.

You may argue that this is capitalism and a good thing. They would argue it is the unacceptable face of capitalism which has wiped out large aspects of their pensions for which they had worked in good faith.

[134brat]

You are 100% correct. The people at the financial heart of the 'new' Flybe pulled off an asset stripping exercise and managed to dump their obligations to the BRAL pensioners in the process when they shut down 'old' Flybe.

Those who are cheering on the new company seem unwilling or unable to understand that those same financial wide boys are gearing up to repeat the whole process.
All of this is technically legal but morally repugnant.

[wanna]

southamptonavgeek

Looks like it would be a LM / SI / GR team up with the codeshare SI, GR and LM seem to have going. Or maybe T3 would be easy pickings for the new flybe?

[euromanxdude]

https://www.cityam.com/dave-pflieger-is-flybes-new-strongman-as-revamped-airline-is-ready-for-take-off/amp/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

[SWBKCB]

most recently as CEO of Ravn Air Group, the largest regional airline in Alaska.

Ravn Air? Sounds just the manAlaska’s largest rural airline has declared bankruptcy, laid off more than 1,000 workers and is selling off its assets. But the company still wants to split $250,000 in bonuses between its highly-paid chief executive and other employees.

In a filing Tuesday in Delaware bankruptcy court (https://cases.stretto.com/public/X065/10215/PLEADINGS/1021508112080000000095.pdf), RavnAir Group said the bonuses are justified because of the hard work and long hours that Chief Executive Officer Dave Pflieger and the other employees put into selling the company’s assets, after it shut down amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

https://www.alaskapublic.org/2020/08/12/ravn-is-bankrupt-and-selling-off-assets-but-still-wants-to-give-chief-executive-a-bonus/

[Jamie2009]

You forgot to cut and paste the part about Ravn filing for bankruptcy due to a global pandemic and the fact it restarted in 2020 under the same name but different business behind it…. Sounds familiar.

Clearly this guys worked with Cyrus a lot, he’s been mentioned in the companies filings at companies house for the last few months.

[ATNotts]

Pflieger, an aviation executive and a relatively well-known name within the airline startup space

I suppose the question is, how many of those in the "startup space" (don't you just love business :mad:) are still going?

[bean]

Onceagain, negativity from amateurs

[davidjohnson6]

Starting an airline, and achieving consistent profitability is tough. The record of past small airlines is not particularly great. I wish Flybe well, but being a bit wary seems to go with the territory

[ATNotts]

Amateur yes, but not in business, and curiously the airline industry is a business. Good thing is that this gent has history in the industry and isn't just a bean (pardon the pun) counter brought in from an unrelated sector. That rarely ends well whatever the sector.

[inOban]

The question is, is there a 'startup space' ? What is flybe mk2 proposing to provide which isn't already being provided by Loganair or Eastern? Are they planning to use planes which are markedly more economical or of a better size? I haven't been convinced by the supporters on this thread.

[DC3 Dave]

As SWBKCB highlighted the people involved here are not the sort to lose anything. They will know every trick in the book to protect themselves.

[SKOJB]

Thank goodness for that, I was worried that Flybe2 might struggle like many other startup’s but that is reassuring!

[wanna]

inOban

And what's to stop Eastern, Logan, Blue Islands and Aurigny teaming up to try and suppress any start up space? Loganair already has code shares with Blue Islands, Blue Islands with Aurigny and Loganair, wouldn't be to far fetched to include Eastern in all of this and then one united front v flybe mk2. Lets face it of the 4, 3 have directly been burned and Aurigny are desperate to make some money and not having Flybe to compete with wouldn't be a bad thing.

[SWBKCB]

Competition and Markets Authority?

[BA318]

We have competition laws and authorities which would probably need to approve any such collaboration. I doubt it would be approved on the basis that 4 carriers didn’t want a 5th joining the market. However they could probably codeshare or have some kind of frequent flyer partnership without much fuss.

Eastern seem a bit of a basket case. As soon as any other operator appears they drop the route, and it feels like their schedules change on a weekly basis so I’m not sure they add anything anyway. Probably the easiest carrier for Flybe to target but then Eastern haven’t made money for a while and Flybe flying bigger planes on the same routes will probably just lose even more.

[DC3 Dave]

If correct, this will help Flybe’s start up!

https://apple.news/ARfLifsTJRo2iAsP_X2uV9w

[Jamie2009]

Yep, APD cut for uk regional flights👍

[compton3bravo]

But not until April 2023. Personally I would not go anywhere near the ' new' Flybe, a right bunch for chancers!

[davidjohnson6]

Has there been any kind of suggestion as to when roughly Flybe will start flying commercially ?
I'm sure (or hope!) the company has an internal target start date, but wondering if that had become public knowledge yet.... is March 2022 the right ballpark or too ambitious ?

[poppiholla]

an DASH a new Flybe livery has been seen coming out of the paint shop in Maastricht, Netherlands so it seems not to far in the distant future

[boredintheairport]

It was doing test flights yesterday in it's new livery, as well. Still a number of ex flybe machines parker up on the far side of the runway.

[cavokblues]

I would have thought the painting of the aircraft would have coincided a little closer to the start of ops.

Seems an unnecessary waste of lease cash each month if it's going to sit on the ground until next Spring as I wouldn't have thought a Dash 8 would be that difficult to secure?

[ollie135]

Be interesting to see who wins the pso route between newquay and london which is shortly to be announced...

[SWBKCB]

Presumably applicants would need an AOC? Have Flybe2 got one yet?

[Expressflight]

They don't appear on the list of AOC holders and I wouldn't expect them to have been granted one yet.

[biddedout]

I wonder where they plan to have a simulator. BHX would seem most likely but presumably they will have to get this up and running before a launch.

[Jamie2009]

Eastern would make sense or Loganair. I doubt Flybe are interested in the early sages of having a single aircraft stationed far away from base with a handful of new crew.
Better to have it at a central hub given all the line training that will be required when flying commences.

Not sure about the sims whereabouts or if they will even have one? depends on how many aircraft they will be flying especially as they are the only Q400 operator in the UK.