Southampton routes to Toulon and Biarritz don't seem to be doing so well, any reason for this?

CAA year on year stats (latest is June 2018 data)

Seems to be across the board on French routes in June.

Toulon down 52%
Rennes down 24%
Nantes down 31%
Lyon - stopped
Limoges down 22%
La Rochelle down 25%
Brest down 70%
Biarritz down 27%
Bergerac down 3%
Bastia down 2%
Avignon down 13%

There may possibly be less demand on some routes, but on the whole I'd say those reductions will mostly be down to less flights this summer, particularly the larger percentage drops. Loads appear to be high on the flights that I've seen operate.

The Q400s should be staying in the fleet now, the leases were extended. Unless G-ECOI and G-ECOK head back to Brussels I would anticipate seeing those painted this winter along with some others such as G-JECP which will return to service in September/October. Although with the change in branding and the removal of the Yellow and Red I'd expect to see a revised scheme - which along with it being summer and aircraft not typically painted in the summer months, may also be a reason for a lack of repaints recently. They'd only be done as and when required; Flybe don't have the 'spare cash' to throw around repainting aircraft unnecessarily and as Airsouthwest says... a repaint will take the best part of a week, Flybe don't have the slack in their operation for that in the summer.

"Flybe Group plc is pleased to announce that today Flybe Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary, signed an agreement with GOAL German Operating Aircraft Leasing GmbH & Co. KG ("GOAL") (the "Agreement") to extend the leases of five Bombardier Q400 turboprop aircraft, which were otherwise due to expire between August 2018 and January 2019. Flybe will extend the leases on these aircraft with the last aircraft to expire in 2024 for a net cash consideration of $24.3m payable over the term of the leases. The lease extension provides Flybe Limited with immediate benefits, including significantly reduced lease rental payments and reduced cash security deposit requirements."

Deal effects: G-ECOF, G-ECOH, G-ECOI, G-ECOK, G-ECOO according to Planespotters.net Flybe Fleet

The four Embraer E175 aircraft due for delivery in 2019 would likely be the first E175s in purple.

According to Jethro's, 30 out of the 54 Q400s are in Purple so more than half.

My point was purely Nice as an alternative to Toulon, not Biarritz!

175/Q400
 

Interesting information and thank you for posting.

The only point of note I have is that they still seem to have 3-5 aircraft not in service at any one time and I realise Jet2, TUI, Thomas Cook are no different with their spares but I was at BHX the other day and one DH8D flew at 1pm another came in at the time and that was it for the day. Another DH8D was in MAEL and the most surprising aspect is the 175 in maintenance in Exeter from 2 August at the very time those extra 10 seats would be filled. The aircraft are definitely utilised more but they still seem to have quite a few "spare" or "parked" or in maintenance.

The good news is that they seem to have fewer cancellations.

They seemed to have picked up some more winter ski work at BHX - certainly the Lleida on a Sunday which operated BHX-ILD-BRS-ILD-BHX l a few years ago before Jet2 EMA took it, seems to be back and the BHX Sunday Chambery which was Titan last winter fits into the 195 schedule which does not operate the CDG and it appears it is going to operate BHX - CMF-SOU-CMF-BHX but not yet confirmed. They have always had both winter and summer charters but some seem to come and go but these two appear to heading back.


Pete

Nothing heard internally, but that means nothing.

Flybe - Stobart Air relationship
 

Two observations:
1) The wet lease contract at Isle of Man ends in March 2019 when flybe takes over with their own Q400s.
2) No flights are currently bookable on flybe.com from Southend after March 2019.

Has anyone further info how their relationship continues beyond March? Or will we maybe see a new Stobart bid for flybe in the meantime?

After March 2019 wouldn't Stobart air need an UK AOC to operate from SEN ?

If nothing changes between now and then, yes. However, subject to ongoing negotiations.

Its not unusual for the Stobart SEN schedules to be announced much later than Flybe's own routes. And there appears to be work in progress on the winter programme from mid January onwards. There may or may not be significance here.

The Stobart SEN franchise agreement commenced on 5 June 2014. It was a five year agreement, so due to expire next summer unless extended. I can't find any reference to an extension, or maybe I am missing something here ?

I imagine there must have been some interesting recent conversations between Stobart and Flybe concerning the poor reliability of the two E195s leased by Stobart from Flybe, and the late delivery (nearly one month late) by Flybe of the first of the E195s purchased by Stobart.

Tagron

I'm sure I read somewhere that the Stobart schedules were due to be announced on 16/08. If that's correct then there may well some significance in the delay.

I was lead to believe that these aircraft were not leased from Flybe but leased from their actual lessors - owing to their original leases to Flybe finally coming to an end? Or will the next one you mention above that is late - actually be the first one to be the case ?

Cazza fly

This is the text of the RNS dated May 2017 announcing the leasing of the first two aircraft. No mention of the lessor here.

Flybe Group PLC ("Flybe") announces that an agreement has been signed with Stobart Air Unlimited (trading as Stobart Air), a subsidiary of Stobart Group Limited ("Stobart"), to provide two Embraer E195 aircraft under a combined commercial arrangement lasting up to 20 months subject to earlier termination options. The two aircraft will be based at London Southend Airport. Flybe will initially operate the aircraft on behalf of Stobart under a crewed "wet lease" arrangement migrating to Stobart operating the aircraft itself no later than 1st January 2018. The aircraft will be operated in Flybe branding under the existing Franchise Agreement between the two companies.

It is the three aircraft that Stobart (in the form of its leasing company Propius) have purchased that will come direct from the leasing company GOAL GmbH. I don't know whether Flybe's lease on these aircraft was expiring or whether it is extinguished as a function of the purchase. And yes it is the aircraft that arrived late that is the first of the three.

Perfect. Thanks for that! Makes complete sense. 👍

So, is it possible that GOAL are responsible to the maintenance of those e195's which Flybe/ Stobart operate under their JV?

Seems unusual for them to trade with a German based leasor when are based in Dublin as the global hub for aircraft leasing.

No, the lessor of a dry-leased aircraft would not be responsible for maintenance. Normally the operator is responsible for the maintenance (whether in this particular sublease agreement that's Stobart or whether the responsibility has been left with flyBE), and as part of the lease agreement, the operator has to pay maintenance reserves into a separate account which is intended to cover the cost of major maintenance work required in the course of the lease or at its end (plus of course with a chunk left over as additional profit for the lessor :hmm:). The maintenance reserves only cover agreed major maintenance work, not ongoing snags - which will be at the operator's cost. Hence smart airlines with clued-in technical staff would look carefully in advance at the reliability and maintenance records of the aircraft they plan to lease, to make sure they are not getting a dog...

There's nothing unusual about dealing with a lessor like GOAL. There is a tradition of German high-net-worth investors going into asset finance (helped in the past by specific German tax laws) and if I recall correctly, some lessors such as GOAL were established to target this mostly German investor pool.

Or are you suggesting some level of conspiracy theory that I'm missing?;)

Thanks for reply, informative! No conspiracy theory from this end, i cant stand theorists of that ilk :ok:

The wet lease in the Isle of Man was a five year deal and Flybe exercised its right to give a years notice at the three year mark. Negotiations were undertaken and crews were told in June that the base is to close on 31.03.2019. Flybe have said that there will be two Q400s based on there IOM thereafter.

Stobart have been restructuring the routes under the Flybe franchise out of SEN and they have decided to end some routes. We have to remember that the Stobart Group which owns SEN have allowed Ryanair to operate 5 aircraft so this could be a reason why they have decided to end some routes.

Whats the latest timeline for the remaining x 6 E95's to disappear from the fleet please (knowing that early 2020 is for full removal)?

I believe there will be 4 left for Summer 19 and they leave in January 2020.

Where does this nugget come from? Everywhere I read that FR are to operate 3 aircraft from SEN.

DC3

Apologies I got my wires crossed! Its a 5 year deal with 3 aircraft initially.. :/

'seen' it quite a few times

Doncaster to Newquay with a E175 :eek: Someone tell me I am imagining it.

Why would you be imagining it? It operates 3x weekly throughout the summer and has done since 2016. Infact it was previously operated back then on the E195. I believe it does pretty well too looking at the stats.

Flybe has 2 E175s based at DSA so what is the surprise that it's operated on them?

Oh don't worry, Disjointed Rivets is only here to have another go at the airline that gave him a leg up in the industry, he's got form on that one, he fails to realise that if they pulled out of his beloved airport he'd be staring at 6,000 new houses in a few years time.

Doncaster-Newquay
 

Not quite, 78 on a Dash and 88 on the 175, but like others don't really understand RJ's point.

Seems to me that NQY is quite a good story for BEE.

Stobart seem to pull 2 E95s at SEN
 

A media report today suggests that Stobart will pull two E95s at Southend and they will deploy the remaining one on the Dublin route from next spring. They are to discontinue a number of SEN routes that are currently operated by the E95s. I wonder what they are going to do with the two E95s that they were supposed to purchase this autumn/winter. But there is no mentioning that the franchise deal with flybe is dead.

ACMI work I would imagine!