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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

Old 9th Oct 2020, 07:44
  #1841 (permalink)  
 
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"Nothing is completely risk-free. But with just 44 published cases of potential inflight COVID-19 transmission among 1.2 billion travelers, the risk of contracting the virus on board appears to be in the same category as being struck by lightning,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
IATA - Research Points to Low Risk for COVID-19 Transmission Inflight

Probably not the most unbiased source, but I'll leave it to others to analyse their methodology...
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Old 9th Oct 2020, 08:23
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...so the 20+ infections on that infamous Zakynthos flight definitely didn't happen then....
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Old 9th Oct 2020, 08:31
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People don’t sit still, they move around the aircraft, use the toilet, go to the overhead luggage locker and eat and drink. Also the filtering system apparently doesn’t work without engine power which isn’t great of you are on stand for half an hour. The safest place has been reported to be a window seat.
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Old 9th Oct 2020, 08:31
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Originally Posted by Dannyboy39 View Post
...so the 20+ infections on that infamous Zakynthos flight definitely didn't happen then....
No, it doesn't mean that - just that the probability that it happened is infinitesimally small.
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Old 9th Oct 2020, 08:41
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Originally Posted by Dannyboy39 View Post
...so the 20+ infections on that infamous Zakynthos flight definitely didn't happen then....
I am a cynic, and to me the return of the Greek Islands to quarantine free status probably has more to do with the 18 -30 crowd being back in education, college or University, and of course work making the Islands a less risky place to return from that they were when the grown up "children" were partying; rather then any large reduction in local transmission rates.

Fat lot of good it does for the travel industry with the summer season having got 3 weeks left to go.
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Old 9th Oct 2020, 09:37
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214 Countries and Territories around the world have this Lurgy and we are still implementing travel bans,corridors and quarantine etc.You can't even travel across the UK without bumping into a circuit-breaker!
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Old 9th Oct 2020, 19:29
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Originally Posted by ericsson16 View Post
214 Countries and Territories around the world have this Lurgy and we are still implementing travel bans,corridors and quarantine etc.You can't even travel across the UK without bumping into a circuit-breaker!
Hence why would Govt spen millions when it is not needed yet for aviation. People are not flying.
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Old 10th Oct 2020, 04:35
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
I am a cynic, and to me the return of the Greek Islands to quarantine free status probably has more to do with the 18 -30 crowd being back in education, college or University, and of course work making the Islands a less risky place to return from that they were when the grown up "children" were partying; rather then any large reduction in local transmission rates.

Fat lot of good it does for the travel industry with the summer season having got 3 weeks left to go.
Of course it is. Everything the government is doing is perception rather than scientifically based. You can go to the Royal Albert Hall indoors but you cannot go to an outdoor Wembley stadium.

For what itís worth. I donít think there have been any significant outbreaks involving aircrew on board flights (happy to be proved otherwise if there is evidence or not out there).

As for the government not bailing out airlines - well, the well is starting to run dry. Iíd quite like to have a career in this industry. These cash reserves are going to be running seriously short without injections in the next few months.

A lot of the problems of this summer have been deferred down the road to next year: thereís going to be some seriously difficult choices coming executives way.
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Old 10th Oct 2020, 11:24
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https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr...TwYzk_qaSCXCx4


Puts a little perspective on flying during the pandemic
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Old 10th Oct 2020, 22:02
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https://lanzaroteinformation.co.uk/c...Doq5bJpGOpRa_0
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Old 11th Oct 2020, 00:09
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50/100,000 over 14 days rules out most of Europe at the moment. Canít see familes paying for tests at point of departure to go on holiday. Itís basically a non-starter.
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Old 11th Oct 2020, 05:39
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Originally Posted by Jonty View Post
https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr...TwYzk_qaSCXCx4


Puts a little perspective on flying during the pandemic
Since the start of 2020 there have been 44 cases of COVID-19 reported in which transmission is thought to have been associated with a flight journey (inclusive of confirmed, probable and potential cases). Over the same period some 1.2 billion passengers have traveled.
So over half of the worlds cases occurred on just one TUI flight then? So who has written this independent report? Why the airline manufacturers including Boeing.
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Old 11th Oct 2020, 06:56
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Originally Posted by LTNman View Post
So over half of the worlds cases occurred on just one TUI flight then? So who has written this independent report? Why the airline manufacturers including Boeing.
The people infected on the TUI flight didnít get it from the flight. They got it in the resort.
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Old 11th Oct 2020, 10:40
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Originally Posted by Jonty View Post
The people infected on the TUI flight didnít get it from the flight. They got it in the resort.
But this doesn't fit the narrative as while thouasands travel London Underground every day the transmission will be blamed on people meeting others in a pub, when it is an aircraft it is the airline at fault. London underground system of course has "clean" filtered air just like a morning in the mountains.
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Old 11th Oct 2020, 10:42
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Originally Posted by BigDoris View Post
50/100,000 over 14 days rules out most of Europe at the moment. Canít see familes paying for tests at point of departure to go on holiday. Itís basically a non-starter.
Travel Industry is dead, 2022 it might recover but the continued scaremongering may make that a struggle.
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Old 11th Oct 2020, 11:16
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Racedo is right to be pessimistic. There are differences in facts and perceptions. The public need to "feel" safety whether or not based on fact.
To bring confidence in air travel, the industry needs to work on enhancing personal space. This means a better way of managing security screening, avoiding herds in snake queues. The same at border controls. It means better boarding & disembarkation systems. It means more space, less people on board- less of the cramming maximum numbers in a metal tube. Obviously this comes at a cost and would force the end of ridiculously over low priced tickets. Surely it would be better to transport less people but more comfortably at a higher cost than hardly any people at all. In the short term personal space is going to be the only way to bring back confidence in air travel.

Last edited by Mr A Tis; 11th Oct 2020 at 14:39.
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Old 11th Oct 2020, 11:25
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About a month ago, Easyjet had a policy that on arrival, pax would leave the aircraft one row at a time, so as to ensure social distancing. Last week, that policy had been effectively abandoned with the usual rush for the exit when the seatbelt sign was turned off

The only way to build confidence amongst pax, is to either a) have a vaccine, b) provide PCR or antigen tests with suitable paperwork near a person's home shortly before departure for free or at minimal cost (and this will fail if Govt require 2 tests spaced out a week apart to avoid quarantine), or c) have sufficiently low numbers of cases in both origin and destination that people believe the risk of quarantine anywhere is extremely low.

Anything about publicising how armrests are disinfected, or spacing people out at security queues is purely symbolic. There is enormous overcapacity of aircraft right now - the only way to persuade airlines to raise fares significantly is if a large number of major airlines go bankrupt... or Govt pass laws requiring aircraft fly at no more than maybe 33% of seat capacity

I hate to say it, but the travel industry right now is not a priority for Govts around the world

Last edited by davidjohnson6; 11th Oct 2020 at 11:51.
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Old 11th Oct 2020, 12:49
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Originally Posted by davidjohnson6 View Post

The only way to build confidence amongst pax, is to either a) have a vaccine,
I have zero intention of taking a vaccine until 2-3 years in use. I am not the only one.

b) provide PCR or antigen tests with suitable paperwork near a person's home shortly before departure for free or at minimal cost (and this will fail if Govt require 2 tests spaced out a week apart to avoid quarantine),
10 days after a paperwork requirement there will be people showing up at airports with fake paperwork.


or c) have sufficiently low numbers of cases in both origin and destination that people believe the risk of quarantine anywhere is extremely low.
Number of cases in irrelevant, number of people who require hospital ICU is.

As of now there are 37.5 Million reported cases and 1.1 million deaths, assumming because of lack of testing that the cases are double the testing then a 1.5% fatality rate or less of infected people is destroying economies.


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Old 11th Oct 2020, 14:44
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Using the worldometer stats https://www.worldometers.info/corona...=homeAdvegas1? that shows a death rate of 4% from 29 million cases.
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Old 11th Oct 2020, 16:07
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Originally Posted by Mr A Tis View Post
Using the worldometer stats https://www.worldometers.info/corona...=homeAdvegas1? that shows a death rate of 4% from 29 million cases.
I use total number of positive cases and because testing did not happen and still doesn't in many cases then doubling number of positive cases is not unreasonable. Two colleagues both had it, both recovered and neither had a test in March as they told to stay at home for 14 days, there will be many..
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