Southend-2
Join Date: Aug 2014
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Pre-booked/online check-in numbers for this evenings flights on the new routes (from/to SEN):
Dublin: 88/44
Glasgow: 34/36
Manchester: 19/2
Obviously yields are the important bit but so far Dublin has seemed to be a success, I've noticed quite a few flights have been sold out.
Manchester, sometimes you're looking at a private jet experience
Dublin: 88/44
Glasgow: 34/36
Manchester: 19/2
Obviously yields are the important bit but so far Dublin has seemed to be a success, I've noticed quite a few flights have been sold out.
Manchester, sometimes you're looking at a private jet experience
I wasn't suggesting that "Brexit just started in November" but that so little apparent progress has been made so far. It's one thing to launch new routes if you're adding to your existing network or to expand your existing bases but it's quite another matter, in my view, if you're contemplating starting a completely new operation.
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Is wizz this mystery airline? Like Norwegian, don't they also now have a U.K. operation? This is also one that now has access to additional slots at an existing station.
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I wasn't suggesting that "Brexit just started in November" but that so little apparent progress has been made so far. It's one thing to launch new routes if you're adding to your existing network or to expand your existing bases but it's quite another matter, in my view, if you're contemplating starting a completely new operation.
Monarch's demise has taken 35 aircraft out of the mix. That includes 4+ at LTN and 9+ (?) at LGW. That's a fair number to replace, and LTN/LGW will be viewed more favourably by most airlines than SEN.
We can expect some replacement of MON capacity from EZY, TUI & TCX at both airports, and perhaps BA at LGW and Blue Air at LTN. FR may be in a position to introduce new capacity by next summer, but are likely to favour STN.
Under these circumstances, I can't see SEN attracting any significant new operator in 2018.
We can expect some replacement of MON capacity from EZY, TUI & TCX at both airports, and perhaps BA at LGW and Blue Air at LTN. FR may be in a position to introduce new capacity by next summer, but are likely to favour STN.
Under these circumstances, I can't see SEN attracting any significant new operator in 2018.
Join Date: Apr 2016
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SEN was failing to attract new operators before the Brexit referendum and that has not changed since. Over the same period other London airports seem barely able to cope at times with the demand. On the face of it Southend Airport has grown significantly over the last few months but the growth has been organic.
As for the reports of operators meeting with Stobart and having the grand tour of the airport - perhaps carrying out technical assessments - I don't doubt it for a minute. But when it all goes back to head office other options are preferred.
One day the groundwork being carried out may produce results. Who knows what will be the trigger? Perhaps a falling out between an operator and another airport.
As for the reports of operators meeting with Stobart and having the grand tour of the airport - perhaps carrying out technical assessments - I don't doubt it for a minute. But when it all goes back to head office other options are preferred.
One day the groundwork being carried out may produce results. Who knows what will be the trigger? Perhaps a falling out between an operator and another airport.
Join Date: Aug 2008
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Mmmmmm...
I would feel that the operators/managements of other airports in the SE are way too professional to allow for that throw of the dice.
But perhaps it depends on what is meant as "a falling out".
Anyways a change from the looking for the growth "overspill" from other dromes.
But either way realistically it no way to project future growth.
I would feel that the operators/managements of other airports in the SE are way too professional to allow for that throw of the dice.
But perhaps it depends on what is meant as "a falling out".
Anyways a change from the looking for the growth "overspill" from other dromes.
But either way realistically it no way to project future growth.
Join Date: Apr 2016
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I think the point I'm trying to make is that nobody - absolutely nobody - sees having a presence at SEN as a must. Easyjet saw a one-off opportunity to get in first and have managed to operate without hindrance for a number of years. In my view no LCC is going to arrive and challenge EZY on their 'no brainer' routes, because they're not sufficiently motivated to get involved in a price war just to become 'The Big Cheese' at London Southend.
Wizz probably would give consideration to SEN because their routes would not conflict, but not as their first or even second choice.
Despite what I'm saying I'm not pessimistic about SEN's future. Keep calm and carry on.
Wizz probably would give consideration to SEN because their routes would not conflict, but not as their first or even second choice.
Despite what I'm saying I'm not pessimistic about SEN's future. Keep calm and carry on.
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You have to question what are the principal reasons some carriers are not prepared to establish a base at SEN?
Is it matters like for example the airports insistence on using Stobart ground handling, where carriers may have more established commercial relationships with likes of Swissport or Menzies.
Are cost's a factor in the negotiations insofar as the cost saving incentives on the table from SEN are not attractive enough?
You do have to question the root causes of the slow uptake, something doesn't stack up in all of this discussion. I think the notion of 'built it, and they will come' is dangerous.
Easyjet is a welcome name to put some respectability into SEN to showcase to other potential carriers but not sure if their presence is seen as a commercial dominance that may put other potential carriers off using SEN.
I'm curious why the Cityjet discussion's collapsed, what was it down to?
Is it matters like for example the airports insistence on using Stobart ground handling, where carriers may have more established commercial relationships with likes of Swissport or Menzies.
Are cost's a factor in the negotiations insofar as the cost saving incentives on the table from SEN are not attractive enough?
You do have to question the root causes of the slow uptake, something doesn't stack up in all of this discussion. I think the notion of 'built it, and they will come' is dangerous.
Easyjet is a welcome name to put some respectability into SEN to showcase to other potential carriers but not sure if their presence is seen as a commercial dominance that may put other potential carriers off using SEN.
I'm curious why the Cityjet discussion's collapsed, what was it down to?
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DC3 Dave...
Yes agree.
You being an observer of SEN I would not doubt your view on SEN`s future & the to you affordable personal sentiment as indicated,but the query might be how large is writ "keep calm & carry on" on the office walls of Stobart Towers.
As you rightly point out growth now is "organic" which effectively means Stobart still funding that extra.
It has been observed here that to fund the airfield business Stobart are (while searching for new custom?)progressively selling off the family silver.
Yes agree.
You being an observer of SEN I would not doubt your view on SEN`s future & the to you affordable personal sentiment as indicated,but the query might be how large is writ "keep calm & carry on" on the office walls of Stobart Towers.
As you rightly point out growth now is "organic" which effectively means Stobart still funding that extra.
It has been observed here that to fund the airfield business Stobart are (while searching for new custom?)progressively selling off the family silver.
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Ryanair hope to put in place a long haul connectivity deal with Aer Lingus in 2018.
With multiple jet services over STN-DUB-STN would this remove STK/BEE`s USP on their more limited ATR DUB service for the good folk of Essex & catchment?.
With multiple jet services over STN-DUB-STN would this remove STK/BEE`s USP on their more limited ATR DUB service for the good folk of Essex & catchment?.
Join Date: Aug 2014
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It's an E195 this time around, early days but the loads seem to have been pretty good including quite a few sold out. What is pleasing is that many of those aren't the flights that connect to transatlantic. Depends where you live really, Chelmsford is marginal but if you're in Southend, Basildon and along the A13 SEN is by far the better option.
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You have to question what are the principal reasons some carriers are not prepared to establish a base at SEN?
I think the point I'm trying to make is that nobody - absolutely nobody - sees having a presence at SEN as a must.
The pros are no slot restrictions, a railway station and and comfortable terminal with no overcrowding although Stobart would be keen to change that situation.
The cons are many including a short narrow runway which will always limit the airports appeal and rule out many airlines even if they wanted to give the airport a try.
No public transport during the all important first and last wave, which is a major issue for non UK based passengers.
The airport is not 24 hour for the airlines and nor is the terminal.
The runway is CAT 1, which while this might not be a massive issue will have an impact.
Not a great track record of keeps routes.
Then there is availability of other airports to absorb expansion and I think this is the killer at the moment. Much has been written here about spare capacity at Southend but that same spare capacity exists at some other London Airports and more is on the way.
Oh for a wonderful Southend experience at my own local airport but it isn't going to happen and the low cost airlines don't seem to care. What they see, and it surprises me, is an airport where there is proven demand despite passengers hating the place.
It is my opinion that Luton is only where it is today due to a lack of slots at Gatwick and Luton has got some of the spillover as has Stansted. That spill over hasn't reached Southend yet.
Monarch is no more so both Gatwick and Luton will be keen to replace that capacity. Both Luton and Stansted have more than enough spare capacity to keep Southend out of the picture for a few more years and Gatwick now also has slots available.
It is not all gloom though as I have already mentioned in the past. If an airline wanted to put in a fairly large presence in a single hit and SEN runway met their requirements the airport is the only airport that could offer a bunch of slots in a tight time period during peak periods. All the other London airports could only offer random slots over a longer period.
I think this is Southend's best hope of attracting a new airline as random slot requirements will be picked up in the main by the other London Airports.
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I don't think Stobart ever considered the possibility of easyjet or the like coming along. They knew the runway would rule out many if not most. They saw a world full of smaller aircraft and an endless demand for regional services. Somehow, easyjet have blurred the original vision. Perhaps they got greedy and unwilling to offer reasonable terms to smaller operators in the belief that where easyjet led others were bound to follow.
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Southend Airport in itself is a hostage to fortune.
To understand the future is to understand Stobart`s reasoning & business objectives originally.
I think all those scenarios have been well rehearsed here but all now in nearly 2018 possibly indicate misjudgement at the very least,the only get out of jail card being perhaps it was always viewed & expected to be funded as a decades long slog.Somehow I doubt though that was the intention of the project.
This thread goes round in circles...hopes raised..hopes reassessed continually.
SEN`s commerciality is going to be determined within the Stobart boardroom & the personal motives in play there but they are playing in a big boys world & hopefully now not subsumed to a mere vanity project as every competitor around is owned by multi billion pound groupings & are v v good at what they do.
To understand the future is to understand Stobart`s reasoning & business objectives originally.
I think all those scenarios have been well rehearsed here but all now in nearly 2018 possibly indicate misjudgement at the very least,the only get out of jail card being perhaps it was always viewed & expected to be funded as a decades long slog.Somehow I doubt though that was the intention of the project.
This thread goes round in circles...hopes raised..hopes reassessed continually.
SEN`s commerciality is going to be determined within the Stobart boardroom & the personal motives in play there but they are playing in a big boys world & hopefully now not subsumed to a mere vanity project as every competitor around is owned by multi billion pound groupings & are v v good at what they do.
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I'd say Southend is also very good at what it does...in my opinion SEN's ultimate potential is midway between where it is now and where Stobart want it to be. That is, five to six based Airbuses flying off to the popular beach and skiing resorts along with Amsterdam and a couple of other major cities, some props or RJs doing a few runs to the likes of Dublin and Edinburgh and a few niche routes like Rennes.
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I'm with you AirportPlanner1. But it's hard to argue against SS's 'Hostage to fortune' remark when Stobart have developed a habit over the years of making predictions that keep coming back to bite their own backsides.