MANCHESTER 1
Singapore
There would need to be a good reason for them not to put the IAH flight through FRA too.
)
Manchester is quite important for Star as well
Yes this SQ Moscow rumour sounds far fetched, but who'd have thought even 6 months ago that EK would switch an A380 from FCO to MAN !! SQ has a massive and loyal following wherever they fly, but the MEB3 plus TK have been turning up the heat at MAN for a long time now. Throw in a CX nonstop to HKG as well, and surely there must come a time when SQ has to either react or retreat ??
Last edited by Logohu; 23rd Mar 2015 at 13:18. Reason: typo
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Following some comments on another thread regarding how quickly STN may catch up MAN for pax numbers.
It was previously reported by someone that a similar ACL document showed MAN's seats available to be 2.5% higher for this summer based it was said after the slots handback. If both STN and MAN achieve consistent LFs compared to last summer for seats available, STN would certainly make further progress to catching up MAN.
However, it would need growth of something nearer 15% I suspect to actually do so if pax at MAN increase by 2.5%. (And one would like to think MAN can do better than 2.5%).
We still await news of the expected plans for the major redevelopment here.
I wonder what realistic growth could be achieved while such significant infrastructure changes are being carried out.
Meanwhile here is the link to ACL http://www.acl-uk.org/UserFiles/File/STN_S15_SOS.pdf
Seats up c9% on last summer
Seats up c9% on last summer
However, it would need growth of something nearer 15% I suspect to actually do so if pax at MAN increase by 2.5%. (And one would like to think MAN can do better than 2.5%).
We still await news of the expected plans for the major redevelopment here.
I wonder what realistic growth could be achieved while such significant infrastructure changes are being carried out.
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Yes, MANFOD, the next couple of years will be interesting!
On the topic of the STN/MAN comparison, the gap between the two airports was just over 2 million passengers in 2014 (calendar year). On a rolling year basis the gap has fallen to 1.6 million in the CAA's February stats.
Of course we all know that Ryanair's decision to ground fewer aircraft at Stansted during this winter has been a major factor in STN's explosive growth over the winter. But it is evident from the ACL data that STN will continue to grow faster than MAN in Summer 2015. If this continues the gap between the airports could be under a million by the end of the year. And then all bets are off for who comes out top in 2016.
On the topic of the STN/MAN comparison, the gap between the two airports was just over 2 million passengers in 2014 (calendar year). On a rolling year basis the gap has fallen to 1.6 million in the CAA's February stats.
Of course we all know that Ryanair's decision to ground fewer aircraft at Stansted during this winter has been a major factor in STN's explosive growth over the winter. But it is evident from the ACL data that STN will continue to grow faster than MAN in Summer 2015. If this continues the gap between the airports could be under a million by the end of the year. And then all bets are off for who comes out top in 2016.
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Yes it's highly likely STN will overtake MAN again, I'd guess maybe within about two years. But really does it matter all that much which one is busiest? I think what's more interesting is the type of traffic and growth each airport gets.
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Reported elsewhere, Singapore Airlines Is to change its Singapore-Moscow-Houston service to Manchester where it will be Singapore-manchester-Houston
There are a couple of things that could happen with SQ's MAN service in the not too distant, but that isn't one of them.
Also, I wonder what the average % of pax on the current flight when it departs MUC for SIN originated in MAN
I flew out on SQ305 from LHR just over a week ago and that had only one other in F and less than 100 Y, although it was full in J.
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How cheap is SQ though? I know several people (including myself) who couldn't justify flying SQ to SIN because they were so much more than other options, usually on MEB3.
Are SQ making the money out of MAN regardless of not necessarily the best loads?
I also wonder if SQ would benefit from a tie-up with Flybe like CX are doing. And connections on United into the US as well as SAS connections.
Are SQ making the money out of MAN regardless of not necessarily the best loads?
I also wonder if SQ would benefit from a tie-up with Flybe like CX are doing. And connections on United into the US as well as SAS connections.
Thanks Manflyer. So if the average % you suggest is accurate, then a direct MAN flight would likely make their MUC flight unprofitable. If there is as much cargo out of MAN as is being suggested then that makes it doubly so. Or am I missing something?
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Been reported elsewhere that there is a liason team from Lufthansa at Manchester, as 7 of the passengers aboard flight 4U9545 that crashed were connecting onto Manchester.
May they rest in piece
May they rest in piece
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Interesting twitter conversation....
Watch this space (for 2 years)
Norwegian Air UK & I @NorwegianairUK 6m 6 minutes ago
So what's your guess/wish list for a new long haul destination?
Strictly Not @strictlynot 6m 6 minutes ago Lisbon, Portugal
@NorwegianairUK MAN-LAX
Norwegian Air UK & I @NorwegianairUK 4m 4 minutes ago
@strictlynot it will be from LGW regional UK hopefully from 2017..
So what's your guess/wish list for a new long haul destination?
Strictly Not @strictlynot 6m 6 minutes ago Lisbon, Portugal
@NorwegianairUK MAN-LAX
Norwegian Air UK & I @NorwegianairUK 4m 4 minutes ago
@strictlynot it will be from LGW regional UK hopefully from 2017..
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A look at the past all business class offering from KLM and now from SAS on PrivatAir 737 aircraft, are indicators of the demand for a premium product from Europe to Houston. With SQs reputable offering, perhaps they feel that they are on to something but it could be argued that the route would be attracting passengers outwith the Manchester catchment area, who are going to Houston. I suspect that codesharing outside of Star would be the only solution to ensure sufficient connectivity, if this was to go ahead.
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Easyjet winter 2015 now on sale, with a few increases:
Amsterdam goes 3 daily on Fri, Sun and Mon
Belfast goes 4 daily on Fri
Berlin goes 2 daily on Fri and Sun...
Copenhagen goes 2 daily on Fri, Sun Mon
Prague goes 4 weekly
Moscow looks to be dropped, but hardly a surprise given the situation in Russia at the moment.
Amsterdam goes 3 daily on Fri, Sun and Mon
Belfast goes 4 daily on Fri
Berlin goes 2 daily on Fri and Sun...
Copenhagen goes 2 daily on Fri, Sun Mon
Prague goes 4 weekly
Moscow looks to be dropped, but hardly a surprise given the situation in Russia at the moment.
Last edited by LAX_LHR; 27th Mar 2015 at 09:22.
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Easyjet winter 2015 now on sale, with a few increases:
Interesting if EZY are going 2 x daily to Berlin on a couple of days. I had a feeling they were only 5 x weekly at present.
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The Remarkable Decline of the Manchester - London Route
This weekend marks the clock-change to BST and the usual raft of changes to scheduled services as we head into Summer 2015. However, this time around something quite remarkable is about to happen. And it is passing almost unreported.
LONDON will cease to be Manchester's most important short-haul hub route.
Back in Summer 2006 when MAN was last breaking records, the Manchester to London route was served by 225 weekly departures offered by five carriers to a choice of four London gateways. This represents slightly more than 32 departures to London every day, although the weekday total outstripped Sat/Sun. LHR offered 110 departures per week (BAW 63; BMA 47). LGW offered 59 departures per week (BAW 43, EXS 16). STN was served by 12 departures per week operated by Air Berlin. And London City had 44 departures per week operated by VLM.
By Summer 2014 only the MAN-LHR route survived with 81 departures per week offered by two carriers (BAW 60; VIR 21). But even that level of service has become unsustainable. Summer 2015 sees MAN-LHR collapse further to just 54 departures per week (based on early August) operated by British Airways alone.
All this means that AMSTERDAM with 69 weekly departures from MAN will now comfortably surpass LHR as this airport's most important short-haul spoke-to-hub destination (KLM 42; EZY 13; BEE 14). DUBLIN is also set to surpass LHR with 62 departures weekly from MAN (EIN/STK 34; RYR 28). PARIS CDG with 40 departures per week and FRANKFURT with 28 departures per week continue to trail LHR.
In the post-war years, has the Manchester - London trunk route ever been surpassed by rival short-haul hubs in this way? It is certainly a sign of the times and symptomatic of changing passenger flows.
Since MAN last reported record passenger throughput back in Summer 2006, a number of factors have contributed to the challenge of regaining those levels over the subsequent decade. MAN's early stand-off with the no-frills carriers which fuelled rapid growth at nearby competitors such as LPL. Economic downturns and the credit crisis. The threat of terrorism resulting in more arduous transits through airport terminals. The renaissance of rail travel, especially using the WCML. And of course, the additional burden of taxation (APD) driven by a political climate in which politicians have been desperate to demonstrate their 'green credentials' to the eco-extremist lobby. But the collapse of traffic on the key Manchester - London trunk routes represents one of the strongest headwinds MAN has faced since the happy days of 2006.
Of course, positives can be drawn from this. MAN's anticipated overhaul of Summer 2006's record Moving Annual Total passenger figures will this time include a far greater proportion of international travellers. And of course, going forward, the Manchester - London route really can't drop much more from this point. That particular haemorrhage is about to be stemmed!
LONDON will cease to be Manchester's most important short-haul hub route.
Back in Summer 2006 when MAN was last breaking records, the Manchester to London route was served by 225 weekly departures offered by five carriers to a choice of four London gateways. This represents slightly more than 32 departures to London every day, although the weekday total outstripped Sat/Sun. LHR offered 110 departures per week (BAW 63; BMA 47). LGW offered 59 departures per week (BAW 43, EXS 16). STN was served by 12 departures per week operated by Air Berlin. And London City had 44 departures per week operated by VLM.
By Summer 2014 only the MAN-LHR route survived with 81 departures per week offered by two carriers (BAW 60; VIR 21). But even that level of service has become unsustainable. Summer 2015 sees MAN-LHR collapse further to just 54 departures per week (based on early August) operated by British Airways alone.
All this means that AMSTERDAM with 69 weekly departures from MAN will now comfortably surpass LHR as this airport's most important short-haul spoke-to-hub destination (KLM 42; EZY 13; BEE 14). DUBLIN is also set to surpass LHR with 62 departures weekly from MAN (EIN/STK 34; RYR 28). PARIS CDG with 40 departures per week and FRANKFURT with 28 departures per week continue to trail LHR.
In the post-war years, has the Manchester - London trunk route ever been surpassed by rival short-haul hubs in this way? It is certainly a sign of the times and symptomatic of changing passenger flows.
Since MAN last reported record passenger throughput back in Summer 2006, a number of factors have contributed to the challenge of regaining those levels over the subsequent decade. MAN's early stand-off with the no-frills carriers which fuelled rapid growth at nearby competitors such as LPL. Economic downturns and the credit crisis. The threat of terrorism resulting in more arduous transits through airport terminals. The renaissance of rail travel, especially using the WCML. And of course, the additional burden of taxation (APD) driven by a political climate in which politicians have been desperate to demonstrate their 'green credentials' to the eco-extremist lobby. But the collapse of traffic on the key Manchester - London trunk routes represents one of the strongest headwinds MAN has faced since the happy days of 2006.
Of course, positives can be drawn from this. MAN's anticipated overhaul of Summer 2006's record Moving Annual Total passenger figures will this time include a far greater proportion of international travellers. And of course, going forward, the Manchester - London route really can't drop much more from this point. That particular haemorrhage is about to be stemmed!
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Interesting. How did the seat count look on MAN-LHR in comparison ?
I'm still hopeful that we might see BA add MAN-LGW back at some stage with newer more fuel efficient aircraft and an increased sh/lh program ex LGW.
cs
I'm still hopeful that we might see BA add MAN-LGW back at some stage with newer more fuel efficient aircraft and an increased sh/lh program ex LGW.
cs
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That's a really interesting point, Shed. As you say, the WCML upgrade and APD have badly affected the point-to-point market. And with the MAN-LHR route now basically just a way of feeding BA's long-haul network, BA will be regularly checking what the minimum frequency should be, but consistent with providing tolerable connection times.
One of the elements in their calculations will be the relatively poor frequencies from MAN to other European hubs. Yes, KL have a good-ish frequency to AMS, and CDG isn't too bad (but there is some bunching across the day). But the frequencies offered by LH to FRA and MUC, and LX to ZRH, really aren't adequate to give consistently good connection opportunities, especially in case of delays. Too many connections through Frankfurt, for example, involve excessive stopovers in one direction due to big gaps in the FRA-MAN schedule. And MUC and ZRH are worse.
With this relatively poor competition from other European legacy carriers, I suppose BA can afford to cut down a little on frequencies without it affecting their market share too much.
One of the elements in their calculations will be the relatively poor frequencies from MAN to other European hubs. Yes, KL have a good-ish frequency to AMS, and CDG isn't too bad (but there is some bunching across the day). But the frequencies offered by LH to FRA and MUC, and LX to ZRH, really aren't adequate to give consistently good connection opportunities, especially in case of delays. Too many connections through Frankfurt, for example, involve excessive stopovers in one direction due to big gaps in the FRA-MAN schedule. And MUC and ZRH are worse.
With this relatively poor competition from other European legacy carriers, I suppose BA can afford to cut down a little on frequencies without it affecting their market share too much.
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THE VALETE LIST
I'm well aware that following many months of exciting new route and increased frequency announcements, my post afew weeks ago suggesting that Summer 2015 would see 'modest' rather than 'swashbuckling' growth at MAN was met with widespread horror, denial and consternation. The 'inconvenient truth' underlying this claim was that whilst the list of additional flights is indeed very impressive, the list of services exiting is pretty substantial too. So, as we head into Summer 2015, it seems appropriate to remember the casualties ... those services which graced MAN's hallowed tarmac in S2014 but which will not be with us this time around. After all, they just don't get the attention and reportage enjoyed by the 'Salvete List', so let's wish them all a fond farewell now. Note that I don't claim to have identified all the changes, but I think that this list will provide a pretty decent guide.
MONARCH AIRLINES: A total of 42 departures per week withdrawn compared with S2014. And many of these used larger A332 / B752 types. MAN's largest hit this season. With thanks and acknowledgment to DAVID SHARPE on the Monarch thread for calculating this number.
BMI REGIONAL: Withdrawing its final MAN route, the Aberdeen schedule with 16 departures per week. No more scheduled ops at MAN after many years of continuous service.
VIRGIN LITTLE RED: Closing the MAN-LHR operation which was 21 departures weekly in S2014 (and a higher frequency 4x Daily through Winter 2014/5).
BRITISH AIRWAYS: Reducing its MAN-LHR frequencies by 6 departures weekly.
US AIRWAYS / AMERICAN: Last Summer's 7 per week MAN-CLT scheduled service not returning for S2015.
AER LINGUS REGIONAL: S2014 schedule to Shannon operated 20 departures per week. Ryanair has replaced STK on MAN-SNN.
FLYBE: Drop Waterford service which operated 3 departures weekly in S2014.
RYANAIR: Drop Trapani (2 departures pw), Bremen (3 departures pw), Paphos (2 departures pw), Reus (3 departures pw). Despite the withdrawal of these ten frequencies, Ryanair is expected to operate a slightly enhanced programme for S2015 including some destinations not served in S2014. However, the very muted expansion by Ryanair at MAN for S2015 is one of the biggest disappointments of the season. It was suggested at one point that RYR wanted ten based this year. Was it constrained access to T3 infrastructure which cost MAN this important opportunity?
JET2: Drop CDG (4 departures pw), Jersey (3 departures pw). However, positive changes mean that Jet2 should operate a larger programme in S2015 than last year.
DELTA AIRLINES: Ends 7 departures pw to ATL with in-house metal. However, sister company Virgin Atlantic is taking over the route with larger A333 equipment representing a small overall increase on the route.
The total number of frequencies withdrawn according to this summary is 139 departures per week, or just shy of 20 departures (40 movements) per day. That is alot, and I've probably missed several more on the charter side (only having numbers for Monarch).
Now, to be completely clear, the list of NEW SERVICES and ENHANCED FREQUENCIES on existing routes is very impressive indeed. But MAN will only record growth AFTER these 139 withdrawn departures per week have been offset. The plateauing of Ryanair is a major disappointment in this respect. Growth for MAN in Summer 2015, whilst it should still happen, will be a much more laboured affair than some have supposed. However, if I'm proven wrong ... I'll be absolutely delighted. Bring on that swashbuckling growth ... I can handle the abuse!
MONARCH AIRLINES: A total of 42 departures per week withdrawn compared with S2014. And many of these used larger A332 / B752 types. MAN's largest hit this season. With thanks and acknowledgment to DAVID SHARPE on the Monarch thread for calculating this number.
BMI REGIONAL: Withdrawing its final MAN route, the Aberdeen schedule with 16 departures per week. No more scheduled ops at MAN after many years of continuous service.
VIRGIN LITTLE RED: Closing the MAN-LHR operation which was 21 departures weekly in S2014 (and a higher frequency 4x Daily through Winter 2014/5).
BRITISH AIRWAYS: Reducing its MAN-LHR frequencies by 6 departures weekly.
US AIRWAYS / AMERICAN: Last Summer's 7 per week MAN-CLT scheduled service not returning for S2015.
AER LINGUS REGIONAL: S2014 schedule to Shannon operated 20 departures per week. Ryanair has replaced STK on MAN-SNN.
FLYBE: Drop Waterford service which operated 3 departures weekly in S2014.
RYANAIR: Drop Trapani (2 departures pw), Bremen (3 departures pw), Paphos (2 departures pw), Reus (3 departures pw). Despite the withdrawal of these ten frequencies, Ryanair is expected to operate a slightly enhanced programme for S2015 including some destinations not served in S2014. However, the very muted expansion by Ryanair at MAN for S2015 is one of the biggest disappointments of the season. It was suggested at one point that RYR wanted ten based this year. Was it constrained access to T3 infrastructure which cost MAN this important opportunity?
JET2: Drop CDG (4 departures pw), Jersey (3 departures pw). However, positive changes mean that Jet2 should operate a larger programme in S2015 than last year.
DELTA AIRLINES: Ends 7 departures pw to ATL with in-house metal. However, sister company Virgin Atlantic is taking over the route with larger A333 equipment representing a small overall increase on the route.
The total number of frequencies withdrawn according to this summary is 139 departures per week, or just shy of 20 departures (40 movements) per day. That is alot, and I've probably missed several more on the charter side (only having numbers for Monarch).
Now, to be completely clear, the list of NEW SERVICES and ENHANCED FREQUENCIES on existing routes is very impressive indeed. But MAN will only record growth AFTER these 139 withdrawn departures per week have been offset. The plateauing of Ryanair is a major disappointment in this respect. Growth for MAN in Summer 2015, whilst it should still happen, will be a much more laboured affair than some have supposed. However, if I'm proven wrong ... I'll be absolutely delighted. Bring on that swashbuckling growth ... I can handle the abuse!
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Shed - in this post and your previous post (re London) you insist on using the currency of 'departures' to measure performance. The correct measure is 'seats'.
e.g. total number of seats is available from MAN is approx. 250,000 higher in total for S15 vs S14.
e.g. Ryanair adding 170,000 seats compared to last summer (yet you describe this as "plateauing").
e.g. total number of seats offered by BA to LHR in S15 is approx 550,000 (vs. 390,000 by KLM for example)
e.g. total number of seats is available from MAN is approx. 250,000 higher in total for S15 vs S14.
e.g. Ryanair adding 170,000 seats compared to last summer (yet you describe this as "plateauing").
e.g. total number of seats offered by BA to LHR in S15 is approx 550,000 (vs. 390,000 by KLM for example)
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North West. It's a fair point you make that available seats is a better measure than the number of departures.
However, although 250,000 extra seats sounds a lot, I reckon it represents a very modest 1.5% increase over the full summer season, even less than the 2.5% previously reported by someone.
I do find it surprising also if Ryanair accounts for two-thirds of that increase.
Do you happen to know what the increase in available seats is for Easyjet, given that they at least have an additional based a/c from June?
Shed, still interesting to read your list and shows why those of us labelled as 'glass half empty' merchants have been rather more cautious. With all the added flights to compensate, it's fair to say the picture is perhaps more complex than usual. For MAN to grow at a higher rate than the seats available will require increased LFs on key routes, although I guess there's still time for some more flights to be added in the peak season if advance bookings are encouraging.
However, although 250,000 extra seats sounds a lot, I reckon it represents a very modest 1.5% increase over the full summer season, even less than the 2.5% previously reported by someone.
I do find it surprising also if Ryanair accounts for two-thirds of that increase.
Do you happen to know what the increase in available seats is for Easyjet, given that they at least have an additional based a/c from June?
Shed, still interesting to read your list and shows why those of us labelled as 'glass half empty' merchants have been rather more cautious. With all the added flights to compensate, it's fair to say the picture is perhaps more complex than usual. For MAN to grow at a higher rate than the seats available will require increased LFs on key routes, although I guess there's still time for some more flights to be added in the peak season if advance bookings are encouraging.
Last edited by MANFOD; 27th Mar 2015 at 19:08.