MANCHESTER 1

[Bagso]

'Transport and connectivity a must for north to become a powerhouse' says Lord Adonis - Manchester Evening News

Another day another presentation, another briefing and copious amounts of hot air.

Very comendable and great publicity in respect of Manchester and the airport but any chance of actually doing something?

[Flightrider]

Given you are usually spot on with your info Spanners, I'm going to say that sounds pretty certain.

On the contrary, Spanners "info" about VS was incorrect about MAN-ATL being reduced to 5 per week (back on post 4617) and I'm led to believe that his timing is six months out on this likely development as well.

What I would also like VS to do is utilise the 2nd based A330 a bit more in the summer.

As I understand it, the aircraft at MAN is a spare from a gap in their heavy check cycle over the summer peak. The constraint may well be crew-related, in that it usually isn't worth employing extra crew for 52 weeks a year to fly for only six or seven weeks. Whether that changes for 2017 with the possibility to add extra SFO, BOS, BGI flights is anyone's guess, but either way, I'd be pretty sure the powers-that-be at VS are already well aware they have an aircraft sitting in MAN for four days a week in July and August.

[spannersatcx]

I may of been misinformed about the MAN-ATL (there's still time though!), heard the New York from 2 sources so may or may not happen, after all it is a rumour network! Will it affect Delta, time will tell I guess!

[Ringwayman]

More trains from Chester to the airport going from 17 a week to 57 a week

With the relevant bit:

"Business surveys have revealed significantly more Welsh residents fly from Manchester than any other airport. According to the latest figures released by the Civil Aviation authority, more than 849,000 Welsh residents used Manchester Airport in 2014."

[Dobbo_Dobbo]

Originally Posted by spannersatcx

I may of been misinformed about the MAN-ATL (there's still time though!), heard the New York from 2 sources so may or may not happen, after all it is a rumour network! Will it affect Delta, time will tell I guess!

Spanners

Any news on CX plans at MAN? May be impacted by the A359 delays and crew issues but thought you might have some info...

[Skipness One Echo]

I'd be surprised if Delta and Virgin both operated MAN-JFK, the opportunity is to up capacity and cut costs by using VS metal and redeploying the Delta aircraft.

[Logohu]

I'd be surprised if Delta and Virgin both operated MAN-JFK,

So would I, especially if the rumours of Norwegian possibly joining the fray next year turn out to be true

the opportunity is to up capacity and cut costs by using VS metal and redeploying the Delta aircraft.

I wonder if Delta would try a new route from MAN with the redeployed 767, like Detroit for example. That would give the DL/VS combination a pretty comprehensive offering between them with JFK in the east, ATL in the south and DTW in the north, plus the VS leisure routes.

[spannersatcx]

Any news on CX plans at MAN? May be impacted by the A359 delays and crew issues but thought you might have some info...

afraid not, still looking at 2017, 1st 350 leaves Toulouse 28th May, only 3 months behind!

[MAN2NYC]

If VS are taking over the JFK route, then maybe DL are taking back the ATL flight? Just a thought. I can't see the introduction of a new route from October, when DL tend to start new routes from April/May/June.

[Dobbo_Dobbo]

Originally Posted by spannersatcx

afraid not, still looking at 2017, 1st 350 leaves Toulouse 28th May, only 3 months behind!

Cheers spanners.

Will be interesting if CX and SQ both make their move in W17. I'll keep my eyes open and thanks again.

[Dobbo_Dobbo]

Originally Posted by Skipness One Echo

I'd be surprised if Delta and Virgin both operated MAN-JFK, the opportunity is to up capacity and cut costs by using VS metal and redeploying the Delta aircraft.

I agree it would be odd. As Logohu says Norwegian are also supposed to enter the route within the next 12-18 months. I could see:

1 - DL and VS running JFK
2 - DL adding DTW
3 - VS running ATL, BOS, SFO, LAX in addition to the florida and carribean holiday runs.

As things stand their are no departures for JFK from around 1.30pm to around 9am the next day. There might be a gap in the market especially if it is used as a filler between another route (like they are doing with BOS on the SFO route).

I think we are expecting VS to commence LAX at some point in the next 24 months or so and it may be that the aircraft does 3/4 rotations per week to JFK between that (alternately it could just be use of the Vegas aircraft!)

Who knows but it fits in with the DL/VS plans to expand ops from and into MAN.

[Logohu]

1 - DL and VS running JFK

Sorry Dobbo I wasn't suggesting both DL and VS running JFK. With AA, TCX and possibly Norwegian on the route next year that's a lot of capacity considering two years ago all we had was a AA 757. More likely to be DL or VS metal on JFK, but with the other airline codesharing of course.

If VS are taking over the JFK route, then maybe DL are taking back the ATL flight?

That's a possibility too. I recall when the ATL switch was first announced there were a few grumbles from some of the DL frequent flyers, including some on here. A fair chunk of the MAN-ATL passengers connect onto Florida. With so much nonstop capacity now going from MAN to Florida with TCX, TOM and Virgin themselves perhaps the 763 might be seen by head office as a better fit for ATL for much of the year. Guess we'll find out soon enough.

[Dobbo_Dobbo]

Originally Posted by Logohu

Sorry Dobbo I wasn't suggesting both DL and VS running JFK. With AA, TCX and possibly Norwegian on the route next year that's a lot of capacity considering two years ago all we had was a AA 757. More likely to be DL or VS metal on JFK, but with the other airline codesharing of course.

I agree - it is a lot of capacity, not counting UA to Newark.

I had in mind a 3x weekly rotation between longer runs to other destinations. The JFK run has grown quickly and I surmise that this may be a way of increasing capacity on an existing route whilst simultaneously adding a new one.

Who knows - it could mean anything.

[Jetaway]

That's a possibility too. I recall when the ATL switch was first announced there were a few grumbles from some of the DL frequent flyers, including some on here. A fair chunk of the MAN-ATL passengers connect onto Florida. With so much nonstop capacity now going from MAN to Florida with TCX, TOM and Virgin themselves perhaps the 763 might be seen by head office as a better fit for ATL for much of the year. Guess we'll find out soon enough.[/quote]

DL frequent flyers prefer to fly on VS where possible as it's a better product.

[roverman]

I am a little more cautious about growth on the Atlantic. There are some fairly weak load factors on the N-registered flights out of MAN at the moment, it could be that the big step-up in routes and capacity by TCX is having an effect, and over-supply is creeping in. It may take time for the market to absorb this new capacity, and we're still up against the dumped back-end seats out of LHR. It's great what TCX as our only true home-based airline have done, but they don't fly any of the prime hub city routes between January and April. So if they push the US carriers into reverse that might not be the best thing all round for MAN.

[Fairdealfrank]

In the same way that having a plethora of airlines providing links over their hubs to Hong Kong and China has stopped Cathay Pacific start non-stop to Hong Kong with Hainan Airlines to Beijing from June (and may be Xi'an next year) with a nod and a wink for Air China to Shanghai?

The 5 big mideast carriers EK, EY, QR, TK and WY (soon) have far more frequencies between MAN and several cities in India than in China, partly a legacy of the large amount of Indians working in the Gulf.

For example, all 5 carriers link (or will link in the case of WY) MAN to BOM, BLR, HYD and MAA; 4 of them link MAN to AMD, COK, CCU, DEL and TRV; 3 to CCJ; and 1 to ATQ, GOI, JAI, NAG and LKO. That's 15 destinations in India.

In the case of China by contrast, its 4 carriers to PEK, 3 to PVG, 2 to CAN and CTU and 1 to CKG, HGH, and INC.

This makes direct flights between Manchester and the Chinese mainland much more likely and that is what is happening.

AI and/or 9W would most likely offer just MAN-BOM/MAN-DEL.

Agreed. The hub operators don't seem to have deterred direct services to Pakistan either with PIA and Shaheen now offering what, 11 flights a week between them ? It all comes down to market size and I'm sure a direct flight to India will follow one day. In the meantime we have Goa already, but only seasonal

Probably because PK offered direct routes between MAN and cities in Pakistan long before the mideast carriers came onto those routes. It is not the same for AI which has never been at MAN, it has history at BHX. AI routed between BHX and BOM/DEL in the 1980s/1990s, then returned recently from DEL/ATQ (or is it ATQ/DEL?). It may be a while before AI or 9W are at MAN.

[Bagso]

FDF

Air India did actually operate direct Delhi - Manchester back in the day.

They actually wanted rights to Bombay which was the commercial capital but were prevented due the dreaded bilaterals which only gave rights from Heathrow, and
"wait for it" Prestwick !

Birmingham were allowed India flights but not sure in terms of the timeline when these were granted. Others will know specifics.

Prestwick was the nominated secondary airport for 90% of UK flights but this was more an accident of London based civil servants in the air ministry who just after WW2 needed to put down two airports when a bilateral air agreement was drawn up.

London being one and Prestwick notionally being the second, purely because it was the only other runway in the UK deemed to have a long enough runway for transatlantic flights.

By default it was nominated for just about every other long haul route as well. This was way before any others actually existed.

It wasn't until Manchester grew in stature that it then became a real problem. In many cases it then took years to unravel and was infact a convenient excuse to protect British Airways and indeed Heathrow at the time.

The CEO of Manchester was said to be seething with Whitehall officials at the time who consistently hid behind a wall of red tape.

--------------------------------

With reference to China flights the big prize is of course inbound tourism. The Chinese are far less London Centric than say Americans.

Dwight and Thelma Diddly Bom Bom from Ohio think we all live next to Liz whereas the Chinese are more interested in the UK as a whole.

Whilst the MEBs take many people out the Chinese flights will be bringing as many in.... therein a lies subtle difference.

[chaps1954]

Bagso
Right on the nail, you have only got to wander round Manchester to to see just how many Chinese visit already and they are putting the money in as well

Ian

[Ringwayman]

Probably because PK offered direct routes between MAN and cities in Pakistan long before the mideast carriers came onto those routes.

PK started Islamabad in March 1989, Lahore in Autumn 1996 and Karachi late 1997. EK came along in November 1990. GF operated between November 1992 and March 1996. QR started March 2003 and EY in March 2006. Passenger numbers to Islamabad peaked in 2008.

AI started 2 weekly A310 via Rome in 1995 (wanted it to be 4 weekly 747), boosting to 4 weekly A310 via Rome in 1997 before announcing in spring 1999 that MAN was going to be getting a frequency increase as a "key destination" before pulling out end of summer 1999. Uzbekistan Airlines also tapped into the Indian market with a weekly service between 1994 and 1997 via Tashkent and I'm pretty sure that the up to 2 weekly SU services between 1987 and January 1997 was also targetting the through traffic.

Market size is something like combined 100,000 to Mumbai/Delhi.. now what routes have been recently launched at MAN with that market size?

[rutankrd]

Frank

Manchester has been linked by direct flight to India by wait for it

Singapore Airlines, British airways AND Air India in the nineties

Singapore routed two for the original three weekly flights via Bombay (Mumbai)

British airways routed one weekly flight to Hong Hong via each of Delhi and Bombay (Mumbai) till they gave up the later to Cathay.

Air India flew three times a week on a multi stop A310 via Rome/Delhi and Bombay however the GOI at the time enforced them to CLOSE the A310 Europe operations because they wanted them to concentrate on Middle East "slave" operations !

Right now the issue is still with Indian politics Air India seem hellbent on throwing money at route like Bangalore- SFO in the hope they get some yield from those IT experts

Jet and Etihad are virtually indistinguishable indeed a significant element of the Jet 77w long haul fleet (that might be deployed on a Manchester service) is actually based in Abu Dhabi operating Etihad flights !

The alternative A333 fleet is surprisingly small just enough for the Scissors Hub over Amsterdam , whilst just 3 A332 remain primarily for South East Asia regional and cargo uplift. Simply put Jet no longer has the spare capacity to even consider an extra LHR if they were to stumble on a few slots at the back of the couch !

Abu Dhabi is the de facto Jet long Haul Hub with Amsterdam and KLM feed a close second

So the case is the PDEW numbers suggest a Mumbai could support none stop flights however for Air India their hub is now up north and they wouldn't want to weaken Birmingham and for Jet they do what the Arab paymasters tell them.

Result Manchesters reliance of foreign carriers for long haul here is stymied.

Could Virgin Atlantic be the long shot ? (Na still up against the Delta/KLM/Etihad current love in !)

Think it's seems a tough nut to crack !