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Old 6th Jan 2015, 21:15
  #461 (permalink)  
 
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Skipness One Echo
I would propose that the argument for basing those 777 was never ventured as interested parties within BA did, and do not really want that base, the same with Birmingham. The loss of the front end going east is hitting their load factors out of LHR as can be seen by the cut back in services on the routes to OZ. The Business class and Gran and Grandad going to see the kids / grandkids from a large chunk of the UK no longer use our supposed National carrier, or indeed the sparkling new LHR T5 or T2, which a colleague informs me is terrible but that is something else altogether. The market for the LH routes from Man was given up before the recession started, and I would say even if they had been there, some would have been given up during that time. However given that to grow your business you have to grow your market, surrendering the central manufacturing belt of the UK to the European opposition as well as further afield given there growth in high end cabin numbers may well be seen in future as a very accurate shot in the foot.


Oh as an aside, the 380 for the evening EK service is coming of the route to Rome, which amongst other things could not fill those premium cabins as well. See you in the bar maybe ?.


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Old 6th Jan 2015, 21:58
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Skip: I'm sure BA could be successful on spoke to (AA) hub flights from MAN with say, 787s. The motivation to do it is what appears to be lacking. Nobody is suggesting routes to the east because that ship has sailed now that the me3 own the market.

Speaking of which, why wouldn't EK, with all the brand recognition and reputation they have in the UK regions, make a point to point USA route work? After all, TCX seem to think it will work? And as much as you talk about Flybe feed on this end, what about feed on the other? TCX might not attract many US based customers but EK sure as hell could. JetBlue partnership one wonders?
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Old 6th Jan 2015, 22:22
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BA at Ringway

IIRC, BD had a focus city/mini-hub at Ringway about 10 years ago, with trans-Atlantic destinations at ANU, BGI, IAD, LAS, ORD, and UVF. These were fed by a few domestic and near-abroad flights.

Don't know how long it lasted, but think it was ended by the time LH got 100% ownership. Perhaps when BD bought Bmed?

VS also have some US and Caribbean destinations at MAN, but would imagine that these are point to point flights and leisure destinations only (virgin holidays?), as there's no feed.
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Old 6th Jan 2015, 23:13
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The loss of the front end going east is hitting their load factors out of LHR as can be seen by the cut back in services on the routes to OZ. The Business class and Gran and Grandad going to see the kids / grandkids from a large chunk of the UK no longer use our supposed National carrier, or indeed the sparkling new LHR T5 or T2, which a colleague informs me is terrible but that is something else altogether. The market for the LH routes from Man was given up before the recession started, and I would say even if they had been there, some would have been given up during that time. However given that to grow your business you have to grow your market, surrendering the central manufacturing belt of the UK to the European opposition as well as further afield given there growth in high end cabin numbers may well be seen in future as a very accurate shot in the foot.
OK let's think it through. We're going to Oz, EK can offer GLA/NCL/DUB/BHX/MAN/LGW/LHR to SYD/MEL/PER et al over muliple daily frequencies with a single stop. As can QR and EY on a smaller scale. Now compare with BA : Region-LHR-BKK or SIN-OZ with QANTAS. Now which one is more competitive, and that's before you get to the cost base of the Gulf states.
You cannot grow a market in the way you suggest, what the ME3 are doing is serving an exisiting (and growing) market so much better than any European network carrier could. It's only a shot in the foot if it can be high yielding for you and you walk away. Walking away from a bloodbath of losses is good business sense, it was the misplaced idea of BA as some form of "national carrier" that made ripping off that sticking plaster take years longer than it ought to have done. It was a slow lingering BACON death alas.

Oh as an aside, the 380 for the evening EK service is coming of the route to Rome, which amongst other things could not fill those premium cabins as well.
I would in no way put down the very real premium demand from MAN, long may it continue. As to a BA B787-8 on thr JV with American, I suspect it would work well, however I also suspect BA would have kittens about doing it and would happlily leave it to AA on their own new B787s
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 07:23
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Forget BA, I just don't understand the constant belly aching. Their hub is LHR, coming back to MAN would just screw up what is already in place.
The real issue is making MAN a hub. To do that the infrastructure should be happening now. Yes, I know people are saying there are plans, but as per usual they will be too little, too late and cause havoc.
There is an opportunity here, stop focusing and wasting efforts on BA, LHR R3 or 4 and any other airport in UK, make MAN the best/easiest to transit.
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 07:40
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How much would it have cost to keep 4 777 there for routes to say JFK, Singapore, HK for example given the full front end cabins for carriers on these routes via mid east or direct ?. I agree with your comments re short haul by the way, but think they missed a trick long haul. No way back now though.
It's not only a question of cost. Apart from anything else, BA doesn't have enough longhaul aircraft at present to develop new routes from LHR, hence many of the ex-BD slots it inherited are being used on Mediterrenean holiday routes for now. So there would be no ability to base 4 B777s at Ringway, even if desirable.

As for MAN-HKG, provided it was in the interests of both carriers, probably the best way to to do this would be to codeshare with Oneworld partner CX. Ditto with SQ for MAN-SIN (different alliance membership doesn't necessarily rule this out).
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 07:45
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BDLBOS you say "forget BA" and then "make MAN a hub". Who would your hub carrier be? A real hub has one operator with critical mass feeding long haul from short haul, the flybe feeding Etihad model is small beer by comparison. R3 is needed at LHR as that's where the market wants to use. Expanding MAN into a hub with no based carrier to support such a hub would replicate the mistake that saws London's new airport for the 21st century given away to Ryanair to use for pennies. If you misread the dynamics of the market, kiss goodbye to your investment. Rather than a hub, MAN is a spoke from the hubs of others, and a very succesful one too.

Good debate though.

Last edited by Skipness One Echo; 7th Jan 2015 at 07:56.
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 07:57
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Easy one to answer Skippy...it'll be BA when they buy Flybe, and send a dozen triples up north Apart from that remote possibility there is no other true hub airline for MAN I'd say, and even the BA operation I can see as workable is a "base" really not a "hub".

Despite me seeing reasons why my stupid ideas could work, we do know BA/AA/IAG are sitting up, taking note and possibly making plans themselves ex MAN. My heart says that could be a BA base, my head says it will be with other OW airlines again serving their hubs and expanding that way to fight off the likes of DL/VS.

One of the first things to happen at MAN with any new development with be to make it possible to travel from T2 to T1 to T3 airside, which can only help connecting passengers.
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 08:02
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This year, it is this forums 10 year anniversary of talking about the same subject matter.



www.pprune.org/airlines-airports-routes/174110-manchester-news.html

Just sayin'....
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 08:15
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eggc

If we are to believe plans for the future Ts 1, 2 and 3 won`t exist in their
current form in 10 years with T1 dissapearing

Ian
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 08:26
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...about time too !

The only thing I know on that is the old control tower office block has just been given 10 more years to live, so are we thinking the major re-development is still quite a few years away ?
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 08:30
  #472 (permalink)  
 
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Skippy, good points on having a based carrier, but MAN has connections now, as it always has. I preferred using MAN over LHR to go to GLA/EDi (not BA)when I lived in USA, too many lost bags going via LHR. Those connections at present are not the easiest, but could be. Flybe seems to have a large operation at MAN with a large amount of feed potential from the regions. The options for direct global flights from MAN seem to be expanding, so giving more connection options. Like I say opportunities, but the Management seem to be focusing on LHR and why it should not have another runway, when the whole world knows it needs two!!
MAN already has the momentum, it just needs a driver to take it forward.
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 08:34
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One of the first things to happen at MAN with any new development with be to make it possible to travel from T2 to T1 to T3 airside, which can only help connecting passengers.
Good point. What happens, or will happen now under the new code sharing agreement between flybe and CX for example, with pax arriving from say one of the Scottish airports at T3 and connecting onto the CX flight at T2? Are bags checked through and how are the transfer passengers handled?
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 08:36
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I'd say so MANFOD. There are no airlines really that people come in on and go out again on the same airline, so for it to be done must mean the possibility of seamless transfer from BE to their various partners or it'd be pretty pointless.
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 09:22
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Given this explosion of long haul services it is critical that the opportunity is not lost expecially as Eggc suggests "connectivity" is key.

I really cannot believe that it is beyond the wit of man to join these 3 terminals by knocking some walls down and putting some new walkways in.

I am reminded of the huge impact that at least half a dozen 30+ floor scrapers will have on the Manchester skyline.

These will be up inside two years maybe I'm missing something but I refuse to believe that some relatively minor changes to the three terminals could be any more complicated ?

Last edited by Bagso; 7th Jan 2015 at 09:32.
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 09:34
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eggc where did you hear that as the plans I have heard do not include it

Ian
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 09:41
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Some great points the last twenty posts. I have some questions which maybe you can answer.

1. eggc refers to national carrier. I wonder what proportion of BA is owned by UK shareholders. To my mind all this stuff about British owned is probably anachronistic. What's probably more important is the base and employment arrangements.

2. I feel the future is going to be one with a lot of weak hubs around the world ie those with LD flights served as spokes from strong hubs. MAN is probably one of them. If that is so, the quality and connectivity of the local distributor (in this case flybe) to a variety of trunk operators (in this case AA, UA, DL, EK, EY, SQ etc) becomes important. Is it possible to create an efficient wave system which works for both p to p and transfer traffic with multiple operators? How do we create through ticketing arrangements which correctly incentivise all parties? Who takes the knock when it's foggy in Aberdeen and the local distribution flight doesn't turn up at MAN? I have read that one or both of the Milan airports have stepped in with guarantees of some kind. Does anyone know how this is working? Is there a middle ground between an alliance ticket and pure self connect with all the risk on the passenger?

3. As another old duffer I feel the crucial moment came in 1987 with the demise of BCal. If at that moment the Government had said to Sir Richard--- OK you can have Manchester and Gatwick long distance, BA is getting Heathrow-- subsequent history may have been different.
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 17:19
  #478 (permalink)  
 
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Bagso
I wish it was that simple. Through my company / industry I have worked on many airports world wide, and unfortunately building anything in the UK even none airport 30 floor buildings is fraught with issues that you do not get in other parts of the world. Also I would respectfully point out that many of these "thrown up 30 floor buildings" in the UK are now having substantial issues with them DUE TO OVERZEALOUSE "VALUE ENGINEERING" which would have Brunel spinning in his grave.


I worked on the original Pier C extension on T1 at Manchester and was a consultant on T2 as well as the then BA hangar. Also acted as a consultant on the original rail station airport tube so I know Manchester Airport quite well. It is not an easy place to work in comparison with HK , Almaty, Changhi, DXB or even Frankfurt, but is considerably easier than LHR.
My point is basically if it was Changhi it would have been thought about and planned. At Man it is growth by osmosis and very slow at that. Combine this with the British love of consultation with every known or even unknown person, or Newt, that maybe effected by what you are doing, and you may understand the issues faced.


A good example of the idiocy in this country came to light yesterday on a recently issued HSE document with regards to the use of access platforms near airports. Contractors are now been asked by the HSE to advise the local airport if they are working on a platform that is above 10m. The perimeter advised by HSE is 6KM !!. If I am 6KM away from Manchester airport on a 10m + MEWP and an Ryanair jet goes anywhere near me I THINK HE OR SHE MAY HAVE BIGGER ISSUES ON THEIR HANDS. However this was issued to me yesterday in all seriousness for future UK work. Like living here but boy working here can be hard at times !.


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Old 8th Jan 2015, 07:47
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Is second daily flight to Dubai aboard the flagship Emirates A380 about to take-off? - Manchester Evening News

An advanced leak or does someone at the MEN read pprune?
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Old 8th Jan 2015, 08:01
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How can it be a 'leak' if it's already bookable as such?

That article appears to have been written by a sixth former (or perhaps I do a dis-service to the average sixth former).

A popular 'destination' is surely one that people choose to go to. Dubai just happens to be where lots of people change planes to go somewhere else (more popular). Palma and Tenerife are popular destinations.

I see 'Dalalaman' is pretty popular too where ever or whatever that is.

On a more serious note - two daily A380s from Emirates puts MAN in to a fairly elite category on this score surely. How many airports worldwide do Emirates fly more than one daily A380?

What will happen to the loss of freight carrying capacity through this switch from 777 to 380? - it is a passenger upgrade but a cargo downgrade.
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