SOUTHEND 5
I have heard nothing to suggest that Wizz Air are considering using SEN and I cannot recall anyone even putting it up as a serious 'rumour'. It would be nice of course if it came about but I cannot see it happening unfortunately.
It really is quite hard to think of any established airline that might transfer existing services from LTN, STN or LCY to SEN so it really needs to be a newcomer to the LON market looking for cost-effective access. Adria is a case in point and the Maribor route does seem to be reasonably successful so far, so perhaps Stobart are looking to find someone similar. That's not likely to generate huge pax numbers though and easyJet surely has the most potential to achieve that aim and should be the immediate prime target for expanding its operations at SEN.
It really is quite hard to think of any established airline that might transfer existing services from LTN, STN or LCY to SEN so it really needs to be a newcomer to the LON market looking for cost-effective access. Adria is a case in point and the Maribor route does seem to be reasonably successful so far, so perhaps Stobart are looking to find someone similar. That's not likely to generate huge pax numbers though and easyJet surely has the most potential to achieve that aim and should be the immediate prime target for expanding its operations at SEN.
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Just a thought....but why cant Stobart form a tour company or charter flights department, and charter in flights to operate from SEN, e.g. Air Malta, Wizz Air, Adria, TAP..........at least the seats could all be sold at the same price like the old days, working on 75% load factors? 
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That's a big step from being a logistics company to a tour operator with all the pressure the other two main tour operators are suffering from low cost carriers I can't personally see Stobarts entering that market anytime soon.
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What possible excuse could Stobart have for dropping the DUB route? it just makes no sense what so ever. As for Wizz it would be nice but why would they.
I think Stobarts should be taking a very hard look at themselves and shareholders should be asking questions as they have put a lot of money into SEN for very little return and it appears they are not concerned one bit about pax numbers falling.
I think Stobarts should be taking a very hard look at themselves and shareholders should be asking questions as they have put a lot of money into SEN for very little return and it appears they are not concerned one bit about pax numbers falling.
Towards the end of last year DUB-SEN was still treated as the core route of the Stobart SEN operation, which suggests that yield was acceptable, and yet it was hived off to Flybe and withered away. It certainly was Stobart's decision to drop the route from the Stobart Air network and I can see no logical reason why they have not resurrected it.
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If SEN DUB does not work, there is little hope for any non sunshine routes, especially given that Dublin/London is among the most dense routes in Europe if not the busiest.
That said service to southeast coast of England from Ireland have been marginal. Norwich, Manston, Southend or even Humberside...
The other angle may be that the SEN DUB routes is only marginally profitable and with scarce resource in terms or airframes they may have choose to open a range of European routes instead of having 1 route to Dublin.
LCY DUB is seeing serious growth as a result of BA Cityflyer and Cityjet competing heavily, this may further deter the route coming back...
That said service to southeast coast of England from Ireland have been marginal. Norwich, Manston, Southend or even Humberside...
The other angle may be that the SEN DUB routes is only marginally profitable and with scarce resource in terms or airframes they may have choose to open a range of European routes instead of having 1 route to Dublin.
LCY DUB is seeing serious growth as a result of BA Cityflyer and Cityjet competing heavily, this may further deter the route coming back...
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If SEN DUB does not work, there is little hope for any non sunshine routes, especially given that Dublin/London is among the most dense routes in Europe if not the busiest.
That said service to southeast coast of England from Ireland have been marginal. Norwich, Manston, Southend or even Humberside...
The other angle may be that the SEN DUB routes is only marginally profitable and with scarce resource in terms or airframes they may have choose to open a range of European routes instead of having 1 route to Dublin.
LCY DUB is seeing serious growth as a result of BA Cityflyer and Cityjet competing heavily, this may further deter the route coming back...
That said service to southeast coast of England from Ireland have been marginal. Norwich, Manston, Southend or even Humberside...
The other angle may be that the SEN DUB routes is only marginally profitable and with scarce resource in terms or airframes they may have choose to open a range of European routes instead of having 1 route to Dublin.
LCY DUB is seeing serious growth as a result of BA Cityflyer and Cityjet competing heavily, this may further deter the route coming back...
EI-BUD
There is no evidence that "SEN-DUB does not work" because when it was a 3 x daily Aer Lingus Regional (Aer Arann/Stobart Air) route Stobart stated that they hoped to add a 4th rotation - hardly indicating the route was struggling.
Indeed, as you say, it looks bad for them to drop SEN-DUB in terms of attracting other non-sunshine routes to SEN. So even if profitability was "marginal" it should still have made sense to continue it to showcase SEN's potential in that market (particularly as it offered attractive connections to US cities). Also traffic on the route was still growing prior to its handover to Flybe so its full potential hadn't been exhausted at that time. Once Flybe dumped it I find it hard to believe that Stobart couldn't find the capacity to continue it.
There is no evidence that "SEN-DUB does not work" because when it was a 3 x daily Aer Lingus Regional (Aer Arann/Stobart Air) route Stobart stated that they hoped to add a 4th rotation - hardly indicating the route was struggling.
Indeed, as you say, it looks bad for them to drop SEN-DUB in terms of attracting other non-sunshine routes to SEN. So even if profitability was "marginal" it should still have made sense to continue it to showcase SEN's potential in that market (particularly as it offered attractive connections to US cities). Also traffic on the route was still growing prior to its handover to Flybe so its full potential hadn't been exhausted at that time. Once Flybe dumped it I find it hard to believe that Stobart couldn't find the capacity to continue it.
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Didn't Stobart have that capacity when they reduced their aircraft operating into Southend from two to one a while back due to dropped routes?
I have lost the plot with their franchise agreement with Flybe. If Stobart re-introduced the Dublin route would that be under their own name? Does the franchise agreement allow them to do this? Would they even want to do this seeing that they have already decided to fly only as a franchise so would be seen as a one route airline in the eyes of the public.
Seeing that they haven't done it there must be a very good reason why not if the route really was a profitable one.
I have lost the plot with their franchise agreement with Flybe. If Stobart re-introduced the Dublin route would that be under their own name? Does the franchise agreement allow them to do this? Would they even want to do this seeing that they have already decided to fly only as a franchise so would be seen as a one route airline in the eyes of the public.
Seeing that they haven't done it there must be a very good reason why not if the route really was a profitable one.
Last edited by LTNman; 13th Aug 2015 at 07:11.
LTNman
It has become rather confusing but I'll try to clarify things as I understand them.
Yes, when the ANR and MST routes were dropped Stobart Air operating as Flybe became a one aircraft operation so the second aircraft could have reverted to Aer Lingus Regional livery and operated the DUB-SEN route.
If Stobart reintroduced DUB-SEN it would presumably be under the Aer Lingus Regional franchise which currently operates eight ATR-72s plus a couple of ATR-42s. As far as the tavelling public would be concerned they would be booking with and flying on Aer Lingus flights so no question of it being a one route airline.
As the DUB-SEN route would revert to being an Aer Lingus route I don't see any conflict with the Stobart/Flybe franchise as Flybe no longer operate to DUB from LON.
As far as saying "there must be a very good reason" why Stobart haven't done this, well you would think so wouldn't you but I cannot work out what that reason is. I think it's worth saying that whenever the subject of new routes for SEN comes up on social media or in the press the return of DUB always features strongly. I would just say that if a large number of aviation professionals find their decision surprising and there seems to be a strong public demand for the return of the route then that decision remains irrational to my way of thinking.
It has become rather confusing but I'll try to clarify things as I understand them.
Yes, when the ANR and MST routes were dropped Stobart Air operating as Flybe became a one aircraft operation so the second aircraft could have reverted to Aer Lingus Regional livery and operated the DUB-SEN route.
If Stobart reintroduced DUB-SEN it would presumably be under the Aer Lingus Regional franchise which currently operates eight ATR-72s plus a couple of ATR-42s. As far as the tavelling public would be concerned they would be booking with and flying on Aer Lingus flights so no question of it being a one route airline.
As the DUB-SEN route would revert to being an Aer Lingus route I don't see any conflict with the Stobart/Flybe franchise as Flybe no longer operate to DUB from LON.
As far as saying "there must be a very good reason" why Stobart haven't done this, well you would think so wouldn't you but I cannot work out what that reason is. I think it's worth saying that whenever the subject of new routes for SEN comes up on social media or in the press the return of DUB always features strongly. I would just say that if a large number of aviation professionals find their decision surprising and there seems to be a strong public demand for the return of the route then that decision remains irrational to my way of thinking.
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Hi Expressflight,
I never actually said that ' SEN DUB does not work', rather I said 'if SEN DUB does not work', which is a very different statement.
I cannot comment on whether SEN DUB was profitable as I don't have access to that information. However, I concur thst the route had not reached it full potential yet, as illustrated by consistently growing numbers until the frequency was cut.
It is a most bizarre relationship that exists between Flybe and Stobart Air. They go into what effectively is a partner relationship which sees Stobart launching flights in Flybe brand and then Flybe go into one of Stobart Air's key Dublin routes from Cardiff. My reading of this is either 1. The relationship is not good or 2. There is a bigger picture referring Stobart Air's future with Flybe in the picture...?
Any views on this?
I never actually said that ' SEN DUB does not work', rather I said 'if SEN DUB does not work', which is a very different statement.
I cannot comment on whether SEN DUB was profitable as I don't have access to that information. However, I concur thst the route had not reached it full potential yet, as illustrated by consistently growing numbers until the frequency was cut.
It is a most bizarre relationship that exists between Flybe and Stobart Air. They go into what effectively is a partner relationship which sees Stobart launching flights in Flybe brand and then Flybe go into one of Stobart Air's key Dublin routes from Cardiff. My reading of this is either 1. The relationship is not good or 2. There is a bigger picture referring Stobart Air's future with Flybe in the picture...?
Any views on this?
EI-BUD
I do have views on the Flybe/Stobart Air situation but, unfortunately, cannot air them here for confidentiality reasons. I was involved for three years with the setting up of the SEN European route network as negotiator for one of the airports concerned.
I can only comment on what has happened since I ceased all involvement with SEN in January this year and I don't see any "bigger picture" behind recent events in respect of the Flybe/Stobart Air relationship.
I do have views on the Flybe/Stobart Air situation but, unfortunately, cannot air them here for confidentiality reasons. I was involved for three years with the setting up of the SEN European route network as negotiator for one of the airports concerned.
I can only comment on what has happened since I ceased all involvement with SEN in January this year and I don't see any "bigger picture" behind recent events in respect of the Flybe/Stobart Air relationship.
Company tie ups
Tom100 and Yeo Valley / Jet2 - Fowler Welch
Strictly speaking Jet2 developed from Channel Express Air Freight which was a separate subsidiary of the Dart Group who also owned Fowler Welch. There is a good history of the Dart Group and Channel Express going back to Carpenter's Air Services on the Fowler Welch website. The group loved their Heralds so much they named the company after the engines.
Strictly speaking Jet2 developed from Channel Express Air Freight which was a separate subsidiary of the Dart Group who also owned Fowler Welch. There is a good history of the Dart Group and Channel Express going back to Carpenter's Air Services on the Fowler Welch website. The group loved their Heralds so much they named the company after the engines.
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SEN Website
I can't remember how long the new SEN website has been live, but I attach below an extract from the site (Media Centre):
"Latest News
London Southend Airport will be posting news here shortly, we are currently developing a new news section for our media centre - please return here soon for updates on new bars, restaurants, routes, charity information and more."
I don't know what their interpretation of the word "shortly" is, but it's very far removed from mine. Surely the Media Centre should be a priority as we need all the publicity we can get.
"Latest News
London Southend Airport will be posting news here shortly, we are currently developing a new news section for our media centre - please return here soon for updates on new bars, restaurants, routes, charity information and more."
I don't know what their interpretation of the word "shortly" is, but it's very far removed from mine. Surely the Media Centre should be a priority as we need all the publicity we can get.
Last edited by SEN Observer; 14th Aug 2015 at 09:37. Reason: Additional wording